1994 Andalusian regional election

1994 Andalusian regional election

←  1990 12 June 1994 1996  →
All 109 seats in the Parliament of Andalusia 55 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered	5,389,552 7.6%
Turnout	3,625,445 (67.3%) 12.0 pp
First party Second party Third party   Leader Manuel Chaves Javier Arenas Luis Carlos Rejón Party PSOE–A PP IULV–CA Leader since 19 April 1990 25 July 1993 21 July 1988 Leader's seat Cádiz Seville Córdoba Last election 62 seats, 49.6% 26 seats, 22.2% 11 seats, 12.7% Seats won 45 41 20 Seat change 17 15 9 Popular vote 1,395,131 1,238,252 689,815 Percentage 38.7% 34.4% 19.1% Swing 10.9 pp 12.2 pp 6.4 pp   Fourth party   Leader Pedro Pacheco Party PA–PAP Leader since 1994 Leader's seat Cádiz Last election 10 seats, 10.8% [lower-alpha 1] Seats won 3 Seat change 7 Popular vote 208,862 Percentage 5.8% Swing 5.0 pp
Constituency results map for the Parliament of Andalusia
President before election Manuel Chaves PSOE–A Elected President Manuel Chaves PSOE–A

The 1994 Andalusian regional election was held on Sunday, 12 June 1994, to elect the 4th Parliament of the autonomous community of Andalusia. All 109 seats in the Parliament were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with the 1994 European Parliament election.

The candidate for the PSOE, Manuel Chaves, was invested as President of the Regional Government of Andalusia after winning the election. However, the poor results obtained by his party forced him to form a minority government 10 seats short of a majority. Eventually, a snap election had to be called in 1996 due to the impracticality of government resulting from the union, at times, of the two main opposition parties (People's Party and United Left).

Overview

Electoral system

The Parliament of Andalusia was the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Andalusia, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Andalusian Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president. ^[1] Voting for the Parliament was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Andalusia and in full enjoyment of their political rights.

The 109 members of the Parliament of Andalusia were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of three percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Seats were allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the provinces of Almería, Cádiz, Córdoba, Granada, Huelva, Jaén, Málaga and Seville, with each being allocated an initial minimum of eight seats and the remaining 45 being distributed in proportion to their populations (provided that the number of seats in each province did not exceed two times that of any other). ^{[1] [2]}

As a result of the aforementioned allocation, each Parliament constituency was entitled the following seats:

Seats	Constituencies
18	Seville
16	Málaga
15	Cádiz
13	Córdoba, Granada
12	Jaén
11	Almería, Huelva

The use of the D'Hondt method might result in a higher effective threshold, depending on the district magnitude. ^[3]

The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates. ^{[2] [4]}

Election date

The term of the Parliament of Andalusia expired four years after the date of its previous election. Election day was to take place between the thirtieth and the sixtieth day from the date of expiry of parliament barring any date within from 1 July to 31 August. The previous election was held on 23 June 1990, which meant that the legislature's term would have expired on 23 June 1994. The election was required to take place no later than the sixtieth day from the date of expiry of parliament on the condition that it was not held between 1 July and 31 August, setting the latest possible election date for the Parliament on Thursday, 30 June 1994. ^{[1] [2] [5] [6]}

The Parliament of Andalusia could not be dissolved before the date of expiry of parliament. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the candidate from the party with the highest number of seats was to be deemed automatically elected. ^{[1] [5] [6]}

Parliamentary composition

The Parliament of Andalusia was officially dissolved on 19 April 1994, after the publication of the dissolution decree in the Official Gazette of the Regional Government of Andalusia. ^[7] The table below shows the composition of the parliamentary groups in the Parliament at the time of dissolution. ^[8]

Parliamentary composition in April 1994

Parliamentary groups		Parties		Legislators
				Seats	Total
	Socialist		PSOE–A	62	62
	People's of Andalusia		PP	26	26
	United Left–Assembly for Andalusia		PCA–PCE	10	11
			PASOC	1
	Andalusian		PA	6	6
	Mixed		PAP	4 [lower-alpha 2]	4

Campaign

Election debates

1994 Andalusian regional election debates

Date	Organisers	Moderator(s)	P Present [lower-alpha 3]
			PSOE–A	PP	Audience	Ref.
2 June	Canal Sur Antena 3	Manuel Campo Vidal	P Chaves	P Arenas	40.6% (1,102,000)	[9] [10]

Opinion polls

The tables below list opinion polling results in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll.

Voting intention estimates

The table below lists weighted voting intention estimates. Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between polling organisations. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 55 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Parliament of Andalusia.

Color key:

  Exit poll

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout			IULV		PAP		Lead
1994 regional election	12 Jun 1994	—	67.3	38.7 45	34.4 41	19.1 20	[lower-alpha 4]	[lower-alpha 4]	5.8 3	4.3
Sigma Dos/COPE [p 1]	12 Jun 1994	?	?	? 46/47	? 41/44	? 17	[lower-alpha 4]	[lower-alpha 4]	? 3	?
Vox Pública/Antena 3 [p 1]	12 Jun 1994	?	?	? 46	? 41	? 19	[lower-alpha 4]	[lower-alpha 4]	? 3	?
Demoscopia/Cadena SER [p 1]	12 Jun 1994	?	?	? 43/47	? 37/43	? 18/22	[lower-alpha 4]	[lower-alpha 4]	? 3/4	?
Eco Consulting/RTVE [p 1]	12 Jun 1994	?	?	? 45/48	? 37/39	? 20/23	[lower-alpha 4]	[lower-alpha 4]	? 2/4	?
ICP–Research/Diario 16 [p 2]	5 Jun 1994	?	?	40.6 46/48	26.8 30/33	19.2 17/21	[lower-alpha 4]	[lower-alpha 4]	5.4 3/4	13.8
Sigma Dos/El Mundo [p 2] [p 3]	3–4 Jun 1994	?	?	39.4 45/49	32.2 38/40	17.8 17/20	[lower-alpha 4]	[lower-alpha 4]	6.9 3/5	7.2
Opina/La Vanguardia [p 4]	30 May–1 Jun 1994	2,000	?	40.0 45/49	34.0 37/41	15.0 14/16	[lower-alpha 4]	[lower-alpha 4]	8.0 7/9	6.0
Demoscopia/El País [p 5] [p 6]	29–31 May 1994	?	?	40.7 48/51	30.9 34/37	18.2 18/20	[lower-alpha 4]	[lower-alpha 4]	7.9 5	9.8
Metra Seis [p 7]	26–31 May 1994	3,700	?	? 41/46	? 35/39	? 16/18	[lower-alpha 4]	[lower-alpha 4]	? 9/16	?
CIS [p 8]	19–23 May 1994	2,000	?	? 45/46	? 37/38	? 19/20	[lower-alpha 4]	[lower-alpha 4]	? 3/4	?
Sigma Dos/El Mundo [p 9] [p 10]	16 May 1994	?	?	39.2 44/49	31.4 37/39	? 14/16	[lower-alpha 4]	[lower-alpha 4]	? 9/11	6.8
CIS [p 11]	13–28 Apr 1994	4,000	?	? 45	? 38	? 20	[lower-alpha 4]	[lower-alpha 4]	? 6	?
Opina/La Vanguardia [p 12]	8–11 Apr 1994	2,000	?	37.0 42/46	34.0 36/40	14.0 14/15	[lower-alpha 4]	[lower-alpha 4]	12.0 12/13	3.0
PSOE [p 13]	7 Apr 1994	?	?	? 42	? 32/35	? 20	[lower-alpha 4]	[lower-alpha 4]	? 12/15	?
PP [p 14]	7 Mar 1994	2,500	?	40.0– 42.0 50/53	34.0 38/41	13.0– 16.0 14/16	3.0 4.0 1/2	–	–	6.0– 8.0
PP [p 15] [p 16]	5–18 Nov 1993	2,500	?	42.0 52/55	32.0 36	14.0 14/16	4.0– 6.0 1/2	3.0 1	–	10.0
1993 general election	6 Jun 1993	—	76.2	51.5 (63)	29.8 (35)	12.1 (11)	2.4 (0)	1.1 (0)	–	21.7
1991 local elections	26 May 1991	—	61.2	45.3	20.3	13.5	11.1	–	–	25.0
1990 regional election	23 Jun 1990	—	55.3	49.6 62	22.2 26	12.7 11	10.8 10	–	–	27.4

Voting preferences

The table below lists raw, unweighted voting preferences.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size			IULV		PAP		?	N	Lead
1994 regional election	12 Jun 1994	—	25.9	23.2	12.9	[lower-alpha 4]	[lower-alpha 4]	3.9	—	32.3	2.7
CIS [p 17] [p 18]	19–23 May 1994	1,994	26.6	18.6	11.5	[lower-alpha 4]	[lower-alpha 4]	4.8	29.4	7.7	8.0
CIS [p 19] [p 20]	13 Apr–2 May 1994	3,992	26.2	19.4	11.8	4.9	0.5	–	28.5	6.5	6.8
CIS [p 21]	11–24 Nov 1992	4,446	29.4	7.7	6.4	7.6	–	–	34.8	12.8	21.7
1990 regional election	23 Jun 1990	—	27.4	12.3	7.0	6.0	–	–	—	44.5	15.1

Victory preferences

The table below lists opinion polling on the victory preferences for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size			Other/ None	?	Lead
CIS [p 17]	19–23 May 1994	1,994	32.4	21.1	10.1	36.4	11.3
CIS [p 19]	13 Apr–2 May 1994	3,992	34.1	22.9	9.3	33.7	11.2

Victory likelihood

The table below lists opinion polling on the perceived likelihood of victory for each party in the event of a regional election taking place.

Polling firm/Commissioner	Fieldwork date	Sample size			Other/ None	?	Lead
CIS [p 17]	19–23 May 1994	1,994	40.6	13.8	21.0	24.6	26.8
CIS [p 19]	13 Apr–2 May 1994	3,992	37.2	14.8	18.6	29.4	22.4

Results

Overall

← Summary of 12 June 1994 Parliament of Andalusia election results →

Parties and alliances		Popular vote			Seats
		Votes	%	±pp	Total	+/−
	Spanish Socialist Workers' Party of Andalusia (PSOE–A)	1,395,131	38.72	–10.88	45	–17
	People's Party (PP)	1,238,252	34.36	+12.18	41	+15
	United Left/The Greens–Assembly for Andalusia (IULV–CA)	689,815	19.14	+6.47	20	+9
	Andalusian Coalition–Andalusian Power (PA–PAP)1	208,862	5.80	–4.95	3	–7
	Communist Party of the Andalusian People (PCPA)	12,078	0.34	+0.11	0	±0
	Forum–Democratic and Social Centre (Foro–CDS)	9,875	0.27	–0.91	0	±0
	Andalusian Nation (NA)2	9,690	0.27	+0.21	0	±0
	Humanist Party (PH)	5,510	0.15	+0.08	0	±0
	Spanish Phalanx of the CNSO (FE–JONS)	2,637	0.07	–0.01	0	±0
	Socialist October (OS)	641	0.02	New	0	±0
	Independent Spanish Phalanx (FEI)	350	0.01	New	0	±0
Blank ballots		30,750	0.85	+0.41
Total		3,603,591			109	±0
Valid votes		3,603,591	99.40	–0.16
Invalid votes		21,854	0.60	+0.16
Votes cast / turnout		3,625,445	67.27	+11.93
Abstentions		1,764,107	32.73	–11.93
Registered voters		5,389,552
Sources [11] [12] [13]
Footnotes: 1 Andalusian Coalition–Andalusian Power results are compared to Andalusian Party totals in the 1990 election. 2 Andalusian Nation results are compared to Andalusian Front of Liberation totals in the 1990 election.

Popular vote PSOE–A   38.72% PP   34.36% IULV–CA   19.14% PA–PAP   5.80% Others   1.13% Blank ballots   0.85%

Seats PSOE–A   41.28% PP   37.61% IULV–CA   18.35% PA–PAP   2.75%

Distribution by constituency

Constituency	PSOE–A		PP		IULV–CA		PA–PAP
	%	S	%	S	%	S	%	S
Almería	38.1	5	41.9	5	15.0	1	3.2	−
Cádiz	34.5	5	33.2	5	18.2	3	11.6	2
Córdoba	37.5	6	30.8	4	24.6	3	5.3	−
Granada	38.3	5	38.6	6	16.8	2	4.4	−
Huelva	44.1	5	33.3	4	15.7	2	5.2	−
Jaén	42.6	5	35.9	5	15.6	2	4.1	−
Málaga	34.3	6	36.5	6	22.4	4	4.7	−
Seville	42.0	8	30.6	6	19.5	3	5.8	1
Total	38.7	45	34.4	41	19.1	20	5.8	3
Sources [11] [12] [13]

Aftermath

Investiture Manuel Chaves (PSOE–A)
Ballot →		20 July 1994	23 July 1994	29 July 1994 [lower-alpha 5]
Required majority →		55 out of 109 N	Simple N	Simple Y
	Yes • PSOE–A (44) (43 on 23 Jul)	44 / 109	43 / 109	44 / 109
	No • PP (41) (40 on 20 Jul) • IULV–CA (20) (until 23 Jul) • PA–PAP (3) (until 23 Jul)	63 / 109	64 / 109	41 / 109
	Abstentions • PA–PAP (3) (on 29 Jul) • IULV–CA (1) (on 29 Jul)	0 / 109	0 / 109	4 / 109
	Absentees • PSOE–A (1) (2 on 23 Jul) • PP (1) (on 20 Jul)	2 / 109	2 / 109	1 / 109
Sources [11]

Notes

1. Results for PA in the 1990 election.
2. Manuel González Fustegueras, José Guerrero, Antonio Núñez and Pedro Pacheco, former PA legislators.
3. Denotes a main invitee attending the event.
4. Within PA–PAP.
5. 19 IULV–CA MPs did not participate in 29 July vote.

References

Opinion poll sources

1. "Sondea, que algo queda". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 27 May 1995.
2. "Elecciones de 12 de junio de 1994 al Parlamento Andaluz". Revista de Derecho Político (in Spanish). 1996.
3. "El PSOE necesitará el apoyo de Izquierda Unida para poder gobernar en Andalucía". El Mundo (in Spanish). 5 June 1994.
4. "Los socialistas ganarán las elecciones en Andalucía". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 5 June 1994.
5. "El PP gana las europeas por seis puntos y el PSOE pierde la mayoría absoluta en Andalucía". El País (in Spanish). 5 June 1994.
6. "Cualquier coalición será posible para formar Gobierno en Andalucía". El País (in Spanish). 5 June 1994.
7. "Metra-Seis atribuye de 41 a 46 escaños al PSOE y de 35 a 39 al PP". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 5 June 1994.
8. "La última encuesta del CIS confirma que el PSOE perderá la mayoría absoluta". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 3 June 1994.
9. "El PSOE perderá votos en toda Andalucía pero podrá gobernar si le apoyan los andalucistas". El Mundo (in Spanish). 16 May 1994.
10. "El PSOE echa el resto en Andalucía para salvar la mayoría absoluta que le arrebatan las encuestas". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 27 May 1994.
11. "Una encuesta del CIS confirma la pérdida de la mayoría absoluta del PSOE y la subida de PP e IU-CA". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 21 May 1994.
12. "El PSOE volverá a ganar en Andalucía, pero el PP acorta distancias y se sitúa a sólo tres puntos". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 17 April 1994.
13. "Una encuesta realizada por el PSOE refleja que los socialistas perderían la mayoría absoluta". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 7 April 1994.
14. "El PP maneja un sondeo que le concede un máximo de 41 escaños y al PSOE hasta 53 diputados". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 7 March 1994.
15. "Una encuesta para el PP prevé la pérdida de la mayoría absoluta del PSOE en el Parlamento de Andalucía". ABC (in Spanish). 15 December 1993.
16. "El PSOE perdería la mayoría absoluta, según una encuesta del PP". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 15 December 1993.
17. "Preelectoral Andalucía 1994 (I) (Estudio nº 2102. Abril-mayo 1994)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 3 June 1994.
18. "El PSOE supera en siete puntos al PP en las elecciones andaluzas, según el CIS". El País (in Spanish). 3 June 1994.
19. "Situación social y política de Andalucía (V) (Estudio nº 2089. Abril-mayo 1994)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 20 May 1994.
20. "Los populares andaluces se acercan a 6,8 puntos de los socialistas". El País (in Spanish). 20 May 1994.
21. "Opinión pública y cultura política en las Comunidades Autónomas: Andalucía (Estudio nº 2025. Noviembre 1992)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 24 November 1992.

Other

1. "Ley Orgánica 6/1981, de 30 de diciembre, de Estatuto de Autonomía para Andalucía". Organic Law No. 2 of 30 December 1981 (in Spanish). Retrieved 16 September 2017.
2. "Ley 1/1986, de 2 de enero, Electoral de Andalucía". Law No. 1 of 2 January 1986 (in Spanish). Retrieved 16 September 2017.
3. Gallagher, Michael (30 July 2012). "Effective threshold in electoral systems". Trinity College, Dublin. Archived from the original on 30 July 2017. Retrieved 22 July 2017.
4. "Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General". Organic Law No. 5 of 19 June 1985 (in Spanish). Retrieved 28 December 2016.
5. "Ley 6/1983, de 21 de Julio, del Gobierno y la Administración de la Comunidad Autónoma". Law No. 6 of 21 July 1983 (in Spanish). Retrieved 17 September 2017.
6. "Ley 1/1990, de 30 de enero, por la que se modifica la Ley 6/1983, de 21 de julio, del Gobierno y la Administración de la Comunidad Autónoma". Law No. 1 of 30 January 1990 (in Spanish). Retrieved 17 September 2017.
7. "DECRETO del Presidente 85/1994, de 18 de abril, por el que se convocan elecciones al Parlamento de Andalucía" (PDF). Boletín Oficial de la Junta de Andalucía (in Spanish) (52): 3728. 19 April 1994. ISSN   0212-5803.
8. "LOS GRUPOS PARLAMENTARIOS. III Legislatura". Parlamento de Andalucía (in Spanish). Retrieved 20 May 2022.
9. Lucio, Lourdes (16 February 2008). "14 años sin verse las caras". El País (in Spanish). Seville. Retrieved 17 May 2022.
10. "La mitad de los andaluces estaba viendo el debate cuando se habló de corrupción y campañas institucionales de la Junta". ABC Sevilla (in Spanish). 4 June 1994. Retrieved 4 September 2022.
11. "Elecciones al Parlamento de Andalucía (1982 - 2018)". Historia Electoral.com (in Spanish). Retrieved 25 September 2017.
12. "Electoral Results Consultation. Parliament of Andalusia. June 1994. Andalusia totals". juntadeandalucia.es (in Spanish). Regional Government of Andalusia . Retrieved 25 September 2017.
13. "Parliament of Andalusia election results, 12 June 1994" (PDF). www.juntaelectoralcentral.es (in Spanish). Central Electoral Commission. 9 July 1994. Retrieved 25 September 2017.