2003 Japanese general election

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2003 Japanese general election
Flag of Japan.svg
  2000 9 November 2003 2005  

All 480 seats in the House of Representatives
241 seats needed for a majority
Turnout59.80% (Decrease2.svg4.64pp)
PartyLeader%Seats+/–
Democratic Naoto Kan 37.39177+28
Liberal Democratic Junichiro Koizumi 34.96237+4
Komeito Takenori Kanzaki 14.7834+3
Communist Kazuo Shii 7.769−11
Social Democratic Takako Doi 5.126−13
New Conservative Hiroshi Kumagai 4−3
Independents Masami Tanabu 1−4
Liberal League Torao Tokuda 10
Independents 11−4
This lists parties that won seats. See the complete results below.
2003 JAPAN GENERAL ELECTION, winner vote share.svg
Districts and PR districts, shaded according to winners' vote strength.
Prime Minister beforePrime Minister after
Junichiro Koizumi
Liberal Democratic
Junichiro Koizumi
Liberal Democratic

General elections were held in Japan on November 9, 2003. Incumbent Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi and the Liberal Democratic Party won the most seats in the House of Representatives but failed to secure a majority. The main opposition Democratic Party made considerable gains, winning 177 of the 480 seats in the House of Representatives, its largest share ever. Other traditional parties like the Communist Party and the Social Democratic Party lost substantial numbers of seats, marking the start of a newly consolidated two-party system in Japanese politics, which would end in 2012 with the emergence of Japan Restoration Party.

Background

On October 11, 2003, Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi dissolved the House of Representatives of the Diet after he was re-elected as the Liberal Democratic Party chief on September 20. The dissolution was based on Article 7 of the Constitution of Japan, which can be interpreted as saying that the Prime Minister has the power to dissolve the lower house after so advising the Emperor. The election was the first since Koizumi was named Prime Minister in April 2001. The major participants were the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the Democratic Party (DPJ). The LDP retains strong support in rural areas and among older voters due to heavy subsidies in agriculture, while the DPJ has had greater support among youth and in urban areas. However, this has tended to favor the LDP, because sparsely populated rural districts have disproportionate weight in Japan's electoral system.

Some of the issues facing candidates included the ongoing economic recession; reform of the public pension system; the extent of Japan's support of the U.S. in Iraq; Japan's relationship with North Korea; and the privatization of the postal service and Tokyo-area highways.

The last general election of the Lower House took place in June 2000 when Yoshiro Mori was Prime Minister.

Results

Constituency Cartogram 43rd Japanese General Election Cartogram.svg
Constituency Cartogram

National newspapers concluded that the election benefited the Democratic Party (DPJ) more so than the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). The DPJ actually garnered the plurality of votes and gained 40 more seats, making it the largest opposition party with a total lower-house membership of 177. Among those in the ruling coalition, only the New Kōmeitō made gains, bringing its total lower-house membership to 34 from 31 members before the election. Since Prime Minister Koizumi was unable to gain more seats for the LDP based upon his high approval ratings — around 60% — some experts believe the election has left Koizumi a weakened Prime Minister while others point out that several of the Non-partisans were really of LDP, most notably Kato Koichi, and LDP had in fact maintained the number of seats.

The LDP performed well in rural areas, while the DPJ performed well in urban areas. The turnout was 59.86%, the second lowest since 1945. The average age of new members of the house was 51.03, 3.2 years younger than in the previous election. Of the new members, 302 (62.9%) were born after 1945. After the election, the total number of women in the lower-house decreased to 34, from 35 before the election.

Poll data collected early in the election season and in exit polls highlighted the role of swing voters, who accounted for 18% of the total vote. According to Asahi Shimbun , more than half of swing voters voted for the DPJ. These exit polls produced highly contradictory preliminary reports, including one poll where DPJ was predicted to capture up to 230 seats, more than 50 above the actual result.

The Liberal Democratic Party failed to achieve an absolute majority by itself, requiring it to maintain its coalition with New Kōmeitō and the New Conservative Party. Senior politicians in the LDP attributed the results to disenfranchisement among traditional supporters of the LDP, resulting in an increased dependency on the coalition. Some politicians in the LDP were concerned about the influence of the New Kōmeitō (NK) on LDP policy because of their dependency.

Some experts believe this election marked the point when the Democratic Party emerged as an effective opposition party to the entrenched Liberal Democratic Party. During the campaign, the DPJ produced an itemized policy manifesto — a first in post-war Japanese elections — and publicized a shadow cabinet (with Naoto Kan as Prime Minister), which is usually created by the opposition parties in countries following the Westminster system, including the United Kingdom. The DPJ also criticized the reforms proposed by Koizumi and the LDP's sluggishness in implementing them, as well as the LDP's position on Iraq while steering clear of other foreign issues.

Smaller parties performed poorly compared to previous elections. The Social Democratic Party lost 3 seats, bringing their lower-house membership to 6, while the Japanese Communist Party lost 11 seats, bringing their total membership to 9 from 20 before the election. Both parties thus lacked the ability to propose a law alone, which under House of Commons procedure requires a minimum of 10 members. The New Conservative Party lost 5 seats, lowering their total to 4 seats from 9 seats, and merged with the LDP shortly after the election. The Japanese Communist Party blamed the negative results on the media, which they claimed had focused overmuch on the LDP and DPJ.

Although the LDP failed to secure a simple majority, due to their coalition with the NK, on November 19, the Diet appointed Junichiro Koizumi as Prime Minister in its short special session, and within a month, the LDP regained a majority by absorbing the New Conservative Party.

Japan House of Representatives 2003 2.svg
PartyProportionalConstituencyTotal
seats
+/–
Votes%SeatsVotes%Seats
Democratic Party of Japan 22,095,63637.397221,814,15436.66105177+28
Liberal Democratic Party 20,660,18534.966926,089,32743.85168237+4
New Komeito Party 8,733,44414.7825886,5071.49934+3
Japan Communist Party 4,586,1727.7694,837,9538.1309–11
Social Democratic Party 3,027,3905.1251,708,6722.8716–13
New Conservative Party 791,5881.3344–3
Assembly of Independents 497,1080.8411–4
Liberal League  97,4230.16110
Other parties51,5240.0900
Independents2,728,1184.581111–4
Total59,102,827100.0018059,502,374100.003004800
Valid votes59,102,82796.6059,502,37497.24
Invalid/blank votes2,080,4593.401,687,4332.76
Total votes61,183,286100.0061,189,807100.00
Registered voters/turnout102,306,68459.80102,232,94459.85
Source: Election Resources, IPU

By prefecture

PrefectureTotal
seats
Seats won
LDP DPJ NKP NCP SDP AI LL Ind.
Aichi 153102
Akita 3111
Aomori 44
Chiba 1358
Ehime 44
Fukui 33
Fukuoka 11551
Fukushima 5311
Gifu 55
Gunma 55
Hiroshima 761
Hokkaido 1257
Hyōgo 1253211
Ibaraki 761
Ishikawa 321
Iwate 413
Kagawa 33
Kagoshima 541
Kanagawa 18981
Kōchi 33
Kumamoto 5311
Kyoto 633
Mie 532
Miyagi 633
Miyazaki 312
Nagano 532
Nagasaki 431
Nara 422
Niigata 6231
Ōita 321
Okayama 55
Okinawa 4211
Osaka 19694
Saga 321
Saitama 1578
Shiga 413
Shimane 22
Shizuoka 8431
Tochigi 55
Tokushima 321
Tokyo 2512121
Tottori 211
Toyama 33
Wakayama 321
Yamagata 321
Yamaguchi 431
Yamanashi 321
Total3001681059411111

By PR block

PR blockTotal
seats
Seats won
DPJ LDP NKP JCP SDP
Chūgoku 11452
Hokkaido 8431
Hokuriku–Shinetsu11551
Kinki29119531
Kyushu 2178312
Northern Kanto 208831
Shikoku 6231
Southern Kanto 2298311
Tohoku 1456111
Tokai219831
Tokyo 178621
Total18072692595

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References