2024 Madeiran regional election

2024 Madeiran regional election

←  2023 26 May 2024
47 seats to the Legislative Assembly of Madeira 24 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Turnout	53.4% 0.1 pp
First party Second party Third party   JPP Leader Miguel Albuquerque Paulo Cafôfo Élvio Sousa Party PSD PS JPP Leader since 10 January 2015 2 December 2023 27 January 2015 Last election 20 seats (SM) [lower-alpha 1] 11 seats, 21.3% 5 seats, 11.0% Seats won 19 11 9 Seat change 1 0 4 Popular vote 49,103 28,981 22,958 Percentage 36.1% 21.3% 16.9% Swing [lower-alpha 1] 0.0 pp 5.9 pp   Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party   CH IL Leader Miguel Castro José Manuel Rodrigues Nuno Morna Party CH CDS–PP IL Leader since 2022 14 April 2024 2019 Last election 4 seats, 8.9% 3 seats (SM) [lower-alpha 1] 1 seats, 2.6% Seats won 4 2 1 Seat change 0 1 0 Popular vote 12,541 5,384 3,482 Percentage 9.2% 4.0% 2.6% Swing 0.3 pp [lower-alpha 1] 0.0 pp   Seventh party Eighth party Ninth party   PAN BE Leader Mónica Freitas Edgar Silva Roberto Almada Party PAN PCP BE Alliance CDU Leader since 2023 1996 2023 Last election 1 seats, 2.2% 1 seats, 2.7% 1 seats, 2.2% Seats won 1 0 0 Seat change 0 1 1 Popular vote 2,531 2,217 1,912 Percentage 1.9% 1.6% 1.4% Swing 0.4 pp 1.1 pp 0.8 pp
President before election Miguel Albuquerque PSD President-designate Miguel Albuquerque PSD

Snap regional elections were held in Madeira on 26 May 2024, to determine the composition of the Legislative Assembly of the Autonomous Region of Madeira. The election replaced all 47 members of the Madeira Assembly, and the new members will then elect the President of the Autonomous Region.

Before the dissolution of the regional parliament, incumbent president Miguel Albuquerque, since 2015, from the Social Democratic Party (PSD), led a coalition government between the Social Democrats and the CDS – People's Party, with the parliamentary support of People Animals Nature. The Social Democrats defended their dominance in the islands, which they have held since 1976.

The Social Democratic Party (PSD), marred in an ongoing corruption investigation, emerged, once again, as the winner with 36 percent of the votes, albeit losing one seat thus gathering 19 seats, and polling comfortably ahead of the second most voted party, the PS. ^[1]

The Socialist Party (PS) suffered another big defeat by gathering basically the same number of votes and seats as in September 2023, 21 percent and eleven seats, thus making no gains from the Social Democrats situation. ^[2] The Together for the People (JPP) can be considered as the big winner of the elections, by gathering 17 percent of the votes, very close with the Socialists, and winning 9 seats, four more than in 2023. The party was also the most voted in their stronghold of Santa Cruz. ^[3]

CHEGA didn't make significant gains and won 9 percent of the votes and held on to the 4 seats won in September 2023. CDS – People's Party (CDS–PP), now running alone after their "feud" with the PSD, achieved 4 percent of the votes and won 2 seats, minus one they had in their 2023 coalition with Social Democrats. ^[4]

People-Animals-Nature (PAN) and the Liberal Initiative (IL) held on to their sole seats, while the Left Bloc (BE) lost their seat and left the regional assembly, as did the Unitary Democratic Coalition (CDU), which for the first time in 36 years will not have a seat in the Madeira assembly. ^[5]

The turnout in these elections was the same as in September 2023, with 53.4% of voters casting a ballot, compared with the 53.3% eight months before.

Background

In the 2023 regional election, the We Are Madeira coalition (PSD/CDS–PP) was again the most voted coalition, 43%, but failed to win an absolute majority. ^[6] After the elections, PSD and CDS–PP sought the parliamentary support from PAN, which guaranteed an absolute majority in the regional parliament. ^[7]

2024 corruption investigation

On 24 January 2024, the Judiciary Police and the Public Prosecutor's office conducted a series of searches at the official office of the President of the Region, at Funchal City Hall, at Miguel Albuquerque's private residence and in many private companies, regarding corruption and abuse of power accusations surrounding real estate businesses in the region. ^[8] The mayor of Funchal, Pedro Calado, and two businessmen were arrested by the police. ^[9] Miguel Albuquerque was named as formal suspect and is accused of several corruption, abuse of power and influence peddling crimes. ^[10]

Miguel Albuquerque announced he would not resign as President and would defend himself against the accusations, although suggesting that he would ask his double immunity, granted as a member of the regional government and the Council of State, to be removed, pressing that he is innocent. ^[11] Parties reacted by demanding Albuquerque's resignation, with People Animals Nature (PAN) threatening to tear apart the agreement between them and the PSD, if Albuquerque didn't resign. ^[12] The Socialist Party (PS) and Chega announced intentions of submitting motions of no confidence against Albuquerque. ^[13]

Fall of the government

On 26 January, Miguel Albuquerque announced he would resign as President of the regional government of Madeira. ^[14] The PSD was expected to select a new leader that would become President of the Regional Government of Madeira. ^[15] Following Albuquerque's resignation, PAN announced that it would continue to provide parliamentary support to PSD. ^[16] However, divisions within the PSD meant that a consensus on a succession solution was not reached. ^[17] The Representative of the Republic in Madeira, Ireneu Barreto, then started to hear parties represented in the regional Parliament. ^[18] Opposition parties, PS, JPP, CH, PCP, IL and BE defended snap elections, while PSD, CDS–PP and PAN proposed the nomination of a new government. ^[19]

On 17 February, the Representative of the Republic in Madeira announced that he would keep the government in office, in a caretaker capacity, until the President of Portugal decided whether there would be early elections or a new government under the current parliament. The parliament of Madeira could only be dissolved from 24 March 2024 onwards, six months after the last elections. ^[20]

On 27 March, the President of Portugal decided to dissolve the regional parliament and call early elections for 26 May. ^[21]

Leadership changes and challenges

Socialist Party

On 2 December 2023, a leadership election was held to replace Sérgio Gonçalves as the leader of PS Madeira. Paulo Cafôfo, by then Secretary of State for the Portuguese Communities and former Mayor of Funchal was the only candidate. He was elected with 98.6% of the votes. ^[22]

Ballot: 2 December 2023

Candidate		Votes	%
	Paulo Cafôfo	1,450	98.6
Blank/Invalid ballots		20	–
Turnout		1,470
Source: DNotícias

Social Democratic Party

On 19 February 2024, Miguel Albuquerque announced that a PSD leadership election will held on 21 March 2024, with himself being an almost certain candidate, which was later confirmed. ^[23] The party also announced the end of their coalition with CDS–People's Party and will contest future elections alone. ^[24] Manuel António Correia, former regional secretary of the Environment and Natural Resources from 2000 to 2015, also announced his intentions to run, being supported by former President Alberto João Jardim. ^[25] On 21 March 2024, Albuquerque was reelected with 54 percent of the votes, against the 45 percent of António Correia. ^[26] 4,388 party members were able to vote, just over a third of a total universe of more than 12,000 members, and of those able to vote, 94 percent cast a ballot. The results were the following:

Ballot: 21 March 2024

Candidate		Votes	%
	Miguel Albuquerque	2,243	54.3
	Manuel António Correia	1,856	44.9
Blank/Invalid ballots		33	0.8
Turnout		4,132	94.17
Source: Expresso

CDS – People's Party

On 20 February 2024, CDS–PP party leader and Regional Secretary for Economic Affairs, Rui Barreto, announced his resignation from the party leadership, ^[27] and a leadership ballot was called for April. José Manuel Rodrigues, current President of the Regional Assembly and former leader of CDS–PP Madeira (1997–2018), announced his intention to run for the leadership. ^[28] On 14 April 2024, José Manuel Rodrigues was easily elected as party leader with 76% of the delegates votes: ^[29]

Ballot: 14 April 2024

Candidate		Votes	%
	José Manuel Rodrigues	129	75.9
Blank/Invalid ballots		41	24.1
Turnout		170
Source: DNotícias

Electoral system

The current 47 members of the Madeiran regional parliament are elected in a single constituency by proportional representation under the D'Hondt method, coinciding with the territory of the Region. ^[30]

Parties

Current composition

The table below lists parties represented in the Legislative Assembly of Madeira before the election.

Name			Ideology	Leader	2023 result
					%	Seats
	PSD	Social Democratic Party Partido Social Democrata	Liberal conservatism	Miguel Albuquerque	43.1% [lower-alpha 1]	20 / 47
	CDS–PP	CDS – People's Party Centro Democrático Social – Partido Popular	Conservatism	José Manuel Rodrigues		3 / 47
	PS	Socialist Party Partido Socialista	Social democracy	Paulo Cafôfo [31]	21.3%	11 / 47
	JPP	Together for the People Juntos pelo Povo	Centrism	Élvio Sousa	11.0%	5 / 47
	CH	Enough! Chega!	National conservatism	Miguel Castro	8.9%	4 / 47
	PCP	Portuguese Communist Party Partido Comunista Português	Communism	Edgar Silva	2.7% [lower-alpha 2]	1 / 47
	IL	Liberal Initiative Iniciativa Liberal	Classical liberalism	Nuno Morna	2.6%	1 / 47
	PAN	People Animals Nature Pessoas Animais Natureza	Animal welfare	Mónica Freitas	2.2%	1 / 47
	BE	Left Bloc Bloco de Esquerda	Democratic socialism	Roberto Almada	2.2%	1 / 47

Parties running in the election

14 parties and/or coalitions are on the ballot for the 2024 Madeira regional election. The parties and/or coalitions that contested the election and their lead candidates were: (parties/coalitions are ordered by the way they will appear on the ballot) ^{[32] [33]}

• National Democratic Alternative (ADN), Miguel Pita
• Left Bloc (BE), Roberto Almada
• Socialist Party (PS), Paulo Cafôfo
• LIVRE (L), Marta Sofia
• Liberal Initiative (IL), Nuno Morna
• React, Include, Recycle (RIR), Liana Reis
• Unitary Democratic Coalition (CDU), Edgar Silva
• Enough (CH), Miguel Castro
• CDS – People's Party (CDS–PP), José Manuel Rodrigues
• Earth Party (MPT), Valter Rodrigues
• Social Democratic Party (PSD), Miguel Albuquerque
• People-Animals-Nature (PAN), Mónica Freitas
• Portuguese Labour Party (PTP), Raquel Coelho
• Together for the People (JPP), Élvio Sousa

Campaign

Issues

The campaign was dominated by issues like housing, poverty and lack of freedoms in Madeira, with some parties accusing the PSD of coercing public employees. ^[34] The stability of the next regional government was also a big issue in the campaign, with Miguel Albuquerque being rejected by all parties, due to his ongoing corruption accusations, and with the Socialists hoping to forge a "contraption" with left wing parties, in order to end the Social Democrats 48 years in power. ^[35]

Party slogans

Party or alliance		Original slogan	English translation	Refs
	PSD	« Sempre pela Madeira »	"Always for Madeira"	[36]
	PS	« Vamos virar a página »	"Let's turn the page"	[37]
	JPP	« Este é o momento »	"This is the moment"	[38]
	CH	« A Madeira tem mesmo de mudar »	"Madeira really needs to change"	[39]
	CDS–PP	« Um voto seguro »	"A safe vote"	[40]
	CDU	« Alternativa necessária »	"Necessary alternative"	[41]
	IL	« Fazer a diferença »	"Make the difference"	[42]
	PAN	« Força da natureza »	"Force of nature"	[43]
	BE	« Gente de confiança »	"Trustworthy people"	[44]

Election debates

2024 Madeiran regional election debates

Date	Organisers	Moderator	P Present [lower-alpha 3]   S Surrogate [lower-alpha 4]   NI Not invited  I Invited   A Absent invitee
			PSD	PS	JPP	CH	CDS-PP	CDU	IL	PAN	BE	PTP	L	RIR	MPT	ADN	Ref.
14 May	RTP Madeira	Gil Rosa	NI	NI	NI	NI	NI	NI	NI	NI	NI	P Coelho	P Sofia	P Reis	P Valter	P Pita	[45]
15 May	RTP Madeira	Gil Rosa	NI	NI	NI	NI	NI	P Silva	P Morna	P Freitas	P Almada	NI	NI	NI	NI	NI	[46]
16 May	RTP Madeira	Gil Rosa	P Albuquerque	P Cafôfo	P Sousa	P Castro	P Rodrigues	NI	NI	NI	NI	NI	NI	NI	NI	NI	[47]

Opinion polls

Polls that show their results without distributing those respondents who are undecided or said they would abstain from voting, are re-calculated by removing these numbers from the totals through a simple rule of three, in order to obtain results comparable to other polls and the official election results.

Polling

  Exit poll

Polling firm/Link	Fieldwork date	Sample size	Turnout											O	Lead
2024 regional election	26 May 2024	—	53.4	36.1 19	4.0 2	21.3 11	16.9 9	9.2 4	1.6 0	2.6 1	1.9 1	1.4 0	0.7 0	4.3 0	14.8
CESOP–UCP	26 May 2024	10,057	51–56	33–38 16/21	2–5 1/2	21–25 11/14	16–19 7/10	8–10 3/5	1–3 0/1	1–3 1	1–3 0/1	1–3 0/1	—	—	12 13
Aximage	10–17 May 2024	609	?	38.1 20	2.7 1	20.6 11	16.0 8	10.8 5	1.5 0	3.1 1	1.6 0	2.4 1	0.8 0	2.4 0	17.5
2024 legislative election	10 Mar 2024	—	58.9	35.4 (19)		19.8 (10)	9.6 (5)	17.6 (9)	1.6 (0)	3.9 (2)	2.1 (1)	2.9 (1)	1.2 (0)	5.9 (0)	15.6
Intercampus [lower-alpha 5]	26 Feb–3 Mar 2024	401	?	39.7 21	1.1 0	28.3 14	9.5 5	7.4 3	3.3 1	6.0 3	1.3 0	—	0.4 0	2.9 0	11.4
2023 regional election	24 Sep 2023	—	53.3	43.1 23		21.3 11	11.0 5	8.9 4	2.7 1	2.6 1	2.2 1	2.2 1	0.6 0	5.4 0	21.8

Voter turnout

The table below shows voter turnout throughout election day.

Turnout	Time
	12:00			16:00			19:00
	2023	2024	±	2023	2024	±	2023	2024	±
Total	20.98%	20.22%	0.76 pp	39.90%	40.52%	0.62 pp	53.35%	53.40%	0.05 pp
Sources [48] [49]

Results

Summary of the 26 May 2024 Legislative Assembly of Madeira elections results

Parties		Votes	%	±pp swing	MPs					MPs %/ votes %
					2023	2024	±	%	±
	Social Democratic	49,103	36.13	[lower-alpha 1]	20	19	1	40.43	2.1	1.12
	Socialist	28,981	21.32	0.0	11	11	0	23.40	0.0	1.10
	Together for the People	22,958	16.89	5.9	5	9	4	19.15	8.5	0.90
	CHEGA	12,541	9.23	0.3	4	4	0	8.51	0.0	0.92
	People's	5,384	3.96	[lower-alpha 1]	3	2	1	4.26	2.1	1.08
	Liberal Initiative	3,482	2.56	0.0	1	1	0	2.13	0.0	0.83
	People-Animals-Nature	2,531	1.86	0.4	1	1	0	2.13	0.0	1.15
	Unitary Democratic Coalition	2,217	1.63	1.1	1	0	1	0.00	2.1	0.0
	Left Bloc	1,912	1.41	0.8	1	0	1	0.00	2.1	0.0
	Labour	1,222	0.90	0.1	0	0	0	0.00	0.0	0.0
	LIVRE	911	0.67	0.1	0	0	0	0.00	0.0	0.0
	National Democratic Alternative	772	0.57	0.1	0	0	0	0.00	0.0	0.0
	Earth	577	0.42	0.1	0	0	0	0.00	0.0	0.0
	React, Include, Recycle	527	0.39	0.1	0	0	0	0.00	0.0	0.0
Total valid		133,118	97.94	0.7	47	47	0	100.00	0.0	—
Blank ballots		609	0.45	0.2
Invalid ballots		2,182	1.61	0.5
Total		135,909	100.00
Registered voters/turnout		254,522	53.40	0.1
Sources: [50]

Vote share PSD   36.13% PS   21.32% JPP   16.89% CH   9.23% CDS–PP   3.96% IL   2.56% PAN   1.86% CDU   1.63% BE   1.41% Others   2.95% Blank/Invalid   2.06%

Parliamentary seats PSD   40.43% PS   23.40% JPP   19.15% CH   8.51% CDS–PP   4.26% IL   2.13% PAN   2.13%

Aftermath

On election night, Miguel Albuquerque, PSD leader, said the Social Democrats had a clear victory, that the leftwing had a "copious defeat" and that the party was ready to govern in dialogue with other parties. ^[51] Socialist Party leader Paulo Cafôfo said that the results showed that an alternative government was possible. ^[52] Together for the People (JPP), considered the big winners of the election, said that stability scenarios were on the making and asked for the confidence of voters. ^[53] Other parties, however, didn't seem willing into supporting either Albuquerque or Cafôfo, with Chega suggesting that only the resignation of Albuquerque would allow Chega to support the PSD; CDS–PP not open to coalitions but to dialogue case by case with the PSD, and rejecting any deal with the Socialists, the same position as the Liberal Initiative; PAN said they would be a constructive force in Parliament. ^[52]

On the day after election day, on 27 May, PS and JPP announced a compromise to propose an alternative government and called on other parties to join them. ^[54] The Liberal Initiative rejected any possibility of joining the PS and JPP compromise. ^[55] On the next day, on 28 May, PSD and CDS–PP reached a deal ^[56] , plus assured the abstention of Chega and IL. ^[57] After meeting with parties represented in the regional assembly, also during 28 May, the Representative of the Republic, Ireneu Barreto, nominated Miguel Albuquerque as President of the Regional Government. ^[58]

Notes

1. PSD and CDS–PP contested the 2023 election jointly as the We Are Madeira Coalition, and won a combined 43.1% of the vote and elected 23 MPs to parliament.
2. The Portuguese Communist Party (PCP) and the Ecologist Party "The Greens" (PEV) contested the 2023 election jointly as the Unitary Democratic Coalition, and won a combined 2.7% of the vote and elected 1 MP to parliament.
3. Denotes a main invitee attending the event.
4. Denotes a main invitee not attending the event, sending a surrogate in their place.
5. Results presented here exclude undecideds (25.2%). With their inclusion results are: PSD: 29.7%; PS: 21.2%; JPP: 7.1%; CHEGA 5.5%; IL: 4.5%; CDU: 2.5%; PAN: 1.0%; CDS-PP: 0.8%; Others/Invalid: 2.5%

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51. "Madeira. Miguel Albuquerque fala em vitória clara do PSD". www.rtp.pt (in Portuguese). RTP. 26 May 2024. Retrieved 27 May 2024.
52. "Jogo em aberto na Madeira. Chovem negas a Albuquerque e a Cafôfo, que correm à procura de parceiros para governar". www.cnnportugal.pt (in Portuguese). CNN Portugal. 26 May 2024. Retrieved 27 May 2024.
53. "Madeira. JPP diz que está a preparar "cenários de estabilidade"". www.noticiasaominuto.com (in Portuguese). Notícias ao Minuto. 27 May 2024. Retrieved 27 May 2024.
54. "PS e JPP pedem votos à direita para governar a Madeira, mas as contas não são fáceis ("se não funcionar, vamos para casa")". www.expresso.pt (in Portuguese). Expresso. 27 May 2024. Retrieved 28 May 2024.
55. "IL não alinha em "geringalhos de populistas e socialistas"". www.dnoticias.pt (in Portuguese). Diário de Notícias da Madeira. 27 May 2024. Retrieved 28 May 2024.
56. ""Temos acordo": Albuquerque confirma acordo com CDS para apoio parlamentar". www.sicnoticias.pt (in Portuguese). 28 May 2024. Retrieved 28 May 2024.
57. "PSD tem garantias da abstenção do Chega". www.dnoticias.pt (in Portuguese). 28 May 2024. Retrieved 28 May 2024.
58. "Albuquerque indigitado presidente do Governo Regional esta quarta-feira". www.dnoticias.pt (in Portuguese). 28 May 2024. Retrieved 28 May 2024.

External links

• Election results
• Comissão Nacional de Eleições