Anthony Watts (blogger)

Last updated
Anthony Watts
Watts in OZ 2010.jpg
Anthony Watts speaking in Gold Coast, Australia, June 2010
Born1958 (age 64–65) [1]
Nationality American
Alma mater Purdue University (no degree earned) [2]
Occupation(s) Blogger, business owner, broadcast meteorologist
Years active1978-present [3]
Employer KPAY [2]
Known forViewpoints on climate change
Website wattsupwiththat.com

Willard Anthony Watts (born 1958) is an American blogger who runs Watts Up With That? , a climate change denial blog that opposes the scientific consensus on climate change. [4] [5] [6] [7] A former television meteorologist and current radio meteorologist, [8] [9] [10] he is also founder of the Surface Stations project, a volunteer initiative to document the condition of U.S. weather stations. [11] The Heartland Institute helped fund some of Watts' projects, including publishing a report on the Surface Stations project, and invited him to be a paid speaker at its International Conference on Climate Change from 2008 to 2014. [12] [13]

Contents

Education and career

Watts assisted with the setup of a radio program for his high school in Indiana, [14] and later attended electrical engineering and meteorology classes at Purdue University, but did not graduate or receive a degree. [2] [15] In 1978, Watts began his broadcasting career as an on-air meteorologist for WLFI-TV in Lafayette, Indiana. [3]

He joined KHSL-TV, a CBS affiliate based in Chico, California in 1987, [2] [3] and founded a company named ItWorks the same year. [16] He stopped using his first name "Willard" to avoid confusion with NBC's Today weatherman Willard Scott. [3] In 2002, he left KHSL to focus on ITWorks full-time. [17] Watts has been the chief meteorologist for KPAY, a Fox News affiliate based in Chico, California since 2004, [2] and the director and president of IntelliWeather Inc, a subsidiary of ItWorks, [16] since 2000.[ citation needed ]

Watts was a member of the Chico, California school board from 2002 to 2006. [18] In 2006, he was briefly a candidate for county supervisor, to represent Chico on the Butte County Board of Supervisors, but withdrew his candidacy due to family and workload concerns. [19]

Climate change opinion and activities

Watts rejects the scientific consensus on climate change. [4] [5] [20] He believes that global warming is occurring, but that it is not as bad as has been reported, and that carbon dioxide plays a much smaller part than the Sun in causing climatic change. [21] [22] [23] Watts has written that variations in solar irradiance, the Sun's magnetic field and solar wind are driving changes to the climate, [22] contrary to the scientific consensus that the primary cause of climate change is an increase in greenhouse gasses, including carbon dioxide. [24] [25] Climate models have been used to examine the role of the Sun in recent warming, [26] and data collected on solar irradiance [27] and ozone depletion, as well as comparisons of temperature readings at different levels of the atmosphere [28] [29] have shown that the Sun is not a significant factor driving climate change. [30] [31]

Watts is a signatory to the Leipzig Declaration [32] as well as the Manhattan Declaration, which calls for the immediate halt to any tax funded attempts to counteract climate change or reduce CO2 emissions, and suggests the consensus among climate scientists is "false". [33] Watts says he advocates for alternative energy sources and for the United States to "disengage from Middle East Oil." [34]

In 2010, Watts went on a speaking tour to 18 locations around Australia. [35] In 2014, Watts began the Open Atmospheric Society. [36]

Climate change blogging

Watts established Watts Up With That? (WUWT) in 2006. The blog features material disputing the scientific consensus on climate change, including assertions that the human role in global warming is insignificant and carbon dioxide is not a driving force of warming. [37] It hosts several guest bloggers, such as Christopher Monckton and the late Fred Singer, in addition to Watts. [38] It is among the most prominent climate change denial blogs, [5] [6] [7] [39] and is described by climatologist Michael E. Mann as the most popular, having surpassed Climate Audit. [4] In 2010, it received more than half a million views per month. [20] Columbia Journalism School writer Curtis Brainard has written that "scientists have repeatedly criticized [Watts] for misleading readers on subjects such as the reliability of the U.S. surface temperature record." [40]

In 2009, Watts was involved in popularizing the Climatic Research Unit email controversy, [38] [41] wherein emails of several climatologists were published by a hacker. Watts argued that the emails showed the scientists were manipulating data, and while a series of independent investigations cleared the scientists of any wrongdoing, [42] public accusations resulting from the event continued for years. [41] The scientific consensus that global warming is occurring as a result of human activity remained unchanged throughout the investigations, [43] [44] however, the reports may have decreased public confidence in climate scientists and the IPCC, and conclusively altered the Copenhagen negotiations that year. [45] [46]

Surface Stations project

An example of a photograph taken by a volunteer from the Surface Stations project, which identifies several alleged issues with the location of the weather station. This photograph was used in the report by Watts published by the Heartland Institute in 2009. Heartland, Surface Stations siting example.jpg
An example of a photograph taken by a volunteer from the Surface Stations project, which identifies several alleged issues with the location of the weather station. This photograph was used in the report by Watts published by the Heartland Institute in 2009.

In 2007, Watts launched the Surface Stations project, encouraging volunteers to take photographs of weather stations in the U.S. Historical Climatology Network to record their condition. [9] [11] [48] By 2009, around 650 volunteers had reported on around 70% of the 1,221 stations, and suggested most were below "good or best" reliability. [49] [50] In March 2009 The Heartland Institute published an illustrated report authored by Watts, in which he argued that the surface temperature record in the United States was inaccurate and that the actual temperature was lower than reported. [51] Watts presented pictures from volunteers participating through his website to show that many surface weather stations were situated near artificial heat sources such as pavement and air conditioners, but did not show any comparison of the data from these sites and the data from well situated stations. [52]

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) investigated the matter. While acknowledging the suboptimal conditions of many stations, NOAA concluded in 2010 that any bias had been nearly eliminated by their models, which compared stations over regions and time. [53] To the very limited extent that there was any measurement bias, it was in the opposite direction of what Watts expected: stations that were considered poorly situated reported slightly cooler temperatures. [54] [55]

This graph shows the temperature record for the 1218 stations in NOAA's Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) from 1950 to 2009, alongside the record for the 70 stations identified as "good or best" in Watts' report published by the Heartland Institute. U.S. Temperature Record 1950 to 2009 (Raw Image).png
This graph shows the temperature record for the 1218 stations in NOAA’s Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) from 1950 to 2009, alongside the record for the 70 stations identified as "good or best" in Watts' report published by the Heartland Institute.

Watts was co-author with climatologists John Nielsen-Gammon, John Christy and Roger A. Pielke, Sr. on a paper with Souleymane Fall as lead author, which found that mean temperature trends were nearly identical between poorly sited and well-sited stations, but poor siting led to a difference in estimated diurnal temperature range. The poorly positioned stations led to an overestimate of trends in minimum temperatures, balanced by a similar underestimate of maximum temperature trends. This meant that the mean temperature trends were nearly identical across the stations. [56]

BEST project, alleged doubling of trend by NOAA

In March 2011, Watts visited the Berkeley Earth Temperature project (BEST), and said "I'm prepared to accept whatever result they produce, even if it proves my premise wrong." [8] In October the project released data and a draft of their paper which produced results supporting the existing scientific consensus. Watts said that its methodology was flawed, complaining that the BEST study analyzed a larger period than his own research, and that it was not yet peer reviewed. [8] Richard A. Muller, founder of BEST, later said their study directly addressed Watts' concern about the condition of weather stations; "we discovered that station quality does not affect the results. Even poor stations reflected temperature changes accurately." [57]

Around 22 July 2012, Watts heard that the BEST project was about to release further material, and decided to release a paper he and Evan Jones had been working on for about a year. [58] The New York Times published a summary of further draft results from BEST, including an announcement from Muller that their study now showed that humans "are almost entirely the cause" of the warming. Shortly afterwards, Watts announced his own team's draft paper which said that previously reported temperature rises had been "spuriously doubled", and made the serious accusation that NOAA had inflated the rate by erroneous adjustments to the data. [59] [60] Climate scientists and other bloggers quickly found flaws in the paper. Steve McIntyre, whom Watts had named as a co-author, stressed that his involvement had been "very last minute and limited". He agreed with criticisms including the point that Watts had failed to correct for time of observation bias, and noted that independent satellite temperature measurements were closer to the NOAA figures. [61]

In 2012 BEST released its series of peer-reviewed papers confirming previous results that the surface temperature is rising. [62]

Connection with Heartland Institute

The Heartland Institute published Watts' preliminary report on weather station data, titled Is the U.S. Surface Temperature Record Reliable? [52] Watts has appeared as a paid speaker at the International Conference on Climate Change the Heartland Institute have sponsored since 2008. [12]

Watts says that he approached Heartland in 2011 to ask for help finding a donor to set up a website devoted to presenting NOAA's data as graphs that are easily accessible to the public. [13] [63] Documents obtained from the Heartland Institute in February 2012 revealed that the Institute had agreed to help Watts raise $88,000 for his project. [64] [65] [66] The documents state that $44,000 had already been pledged by an anonymous donor, and the Institute would seek to raise the rest. [12] Watts has written that, aside from the help in funding this project, the Heartland Institute does not pay him a regular salary or fund his blog. [13] [67]

Notes

  1. ↑ "School board shakeup". Chico News & Review. October 31, 2002. Retrieved 2012-07-08.
  2. 1 2 3 4 5 Grant 2011 , p. 301: "Anthony Watts is a TV journalist, a weather presenter who studied Electrical Engineering and Meteorology at Purdue University; there's no record of his having graduated, however, and he's been reticent in discussing this. After a career in local television, in 2004 he moved to radio, joining the FOX News affiliate KPAY in Chico, California."
  3. 1 2 3 4 "Anthony Watts, Meteorologist". KHSL-TV. Archived from the original on March 6, 2001. Retrieved 2012-07-09. Anthony has been with KHSL-TV since October, 1987...Anthony began his broadcasting career, in 1978 in Lafayette, Indiana...His unique real name is Willard Anthony Watts...but he had to stop using "Willard" because of Willard Scott on the Today show!
  4. 1 2 3 Mann 2013 , p. 72: "Since then, a number of other amateur climate change denial bloggers have arrived on the scene. Most prominent among them is Anthony Watts, a meteorologist...and founder of the site "Watts Up with That?" which has overtaken climate audit as the leading climate change denial blog."
  5. 1 2 3 Farmer & Cook 2013 , p. 462: "One of the highest trafficked climate blogs is wattsupwiththat.com, a website that publishes climate misinformation on a daily basis."
  6. 1 2 Dunlap & McCright 2011 , p. 153: "In recent years these conservative media outlets have been supplemented (and to some degree supplanted) by the conservative blogosphere, and numerous blogs now constitute a vital element of the denial machine...the most popular North American blogs are run by a retired TV meteorologist (wattsupwiththat.com)...Having this powerful, pervasive, and multifaceted media apparatus at its service provides the denial machine with a highly effective means of spreading its message."
  7. 1 2 Manne 2012: "More importantly, it was becoming clear that the most effective denialist media weapon was not the newspapers or television but the internet. A number of influential websites, like Watts Up With That?, Climate Skeptic and Climate Depot, were established."
  8. 1 2 3 Kaufman, Leslie (October 21, 2011). "Climate Study Does Not Placate Skeptics". New York Times. Retrieved May 27, 2020. Anthony Watts, had written in March on his climate-themed blog, Watts Up With That, "I'm prepared to accept whatever result they produce, even if it proves my premise wrong." But neither Mr. Watts nor other longtime critics of climate science reached by The Times seemed satisfied with the report. Mr. Watts, a former television meteorologist, contended that the study's methodology was flawed because it examined data over a 60-year period instead of the 30-year-one that was the basis for his research and some other peer-reviewed studies. He also noted that the report had not yet been peer-reviewed and cited spelling errors as proof of sloppiness.
  9. 1 2 Black et al. 2013 , p. 1328: "A few critics continued to seek confirmation of their denial of the warming data on air temperatures from weather stations and satellites. In particular, former TV weatherman Anthony Watts established a popular website that mobilized people to report continental U.S. weather stations that were poorly located, such as near the exhaust of air conditioners."
  10. ↑ "Programming - Newstalk1290 KPAY".
  11. 1 2 Mann 2013 , p. 72: "Watts also started the Web site SurfaceStations.org, which purports to identify poorly sited meteorological stations in the United States in an effort to demonstrate that the instrumental record of warming temperatures is hopelessly compromised by instrumental measurement biases."
  12. 1 2 3 Gascoyne, Tom (February 23, 2012). "Leaked documents hit home Climate-change scandal has a local connection". Chico News & Review. Retrieved August 8, 2012.
  13. 1 2 3 Hickman, Leo (February 15, 2012). "Leaked Heartland Institute documents pull back curtain on climate scepticism". The Guardian . Retrieved 2012-08-10.
  14. ↑ Watts, Anthony (2013-06-11). "FAQS: Why do you blog?" . Retrieved 11 April 2015.
  15. ↑ Katherine Bagley (March 2015). "Leaked Email Reveals Who's Who List of Climate Denialists". InsideClimate News. Watts studied electrical engineering and meteorology at Purdue University but never graduated. He then served as an on-air meteorologist for 25 years. He's a frequent speaker at anti-climate action events hosted by the Heartland Institute.
  16. 1 2 "About weatherframe.com". Archived from the original on April 3, 2015. Retrieved May 27, 2020. IntelliWeather's parent company, ItWorks, was founded in 1987 by Anthony Watts, a career broadcast television meteorologist. ItWorks provides a wide variety of products for broadcast TV, video, and weather use, ranging from video signal test systems to StormPredator, and unique personal weather radar program. IntelliWeather was founded for the purpose of providing unique and affordable broadcast quality weather imagery for a wide variety of multimedia venues.
  17. ↑ Smith, Laura (January 31, 2002). "Forecast: No more Watts for KHSL". Chico News & Review . Retrieved 2012-07-09.
  18. ↑ "Chico Unified School District: Board of Education". Chico Unified School District. Archived from the original on April 25, 2003. Retrieved 2012-07-09.
  19. ↑ Indar, Josh (March 16, 2006). "One out, one in, one on". Chico News & Review . Retrieved 2009-10-13.
  20. 1 2 Mooney & Kirshenbaum 2010 , p. 114: "Anthony Watts is an extremely popular blogger, drawing hundreds of comments per post and well over half a million visitors per month. Yet his blog contains highly questionable information–presented very "scientifically" of course, replete with charts and graphs–but all directed toward the end of making the scientific consensus on human-caused global warming seem faulty (in fact, it's extremely robust)
  21. ↑ Michels, Spencer. "Climate Change Skeptic Says Global Warming Crowd Oversells Its Message". PBS NewsHour.
  22. 1 2 Anthony Watts. It's the Sun, stupid, wattsupwiththat.com, April 6, 2007.
  23. ↑ Ryan Olson, "Scientists warm up to Watts' work". Archived from the original on 2007-09-27. Retrieved 2007-09-02.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: bot: original URL status unknown (link), Chico Enterprise Record, 2007.
  24. ↑ National Research Council 2010 , p. 26:Climate change is occurring, is caused largely by human activities, and poses significant risks...This conclusion is based on a substantial array of scientific evidence, including recent work, and is consistent with the conclusions of recent assessments by the [USGCRP], the [IPCC], and other assessments of the state of scientific knowledge on climate change...Most of the warming over the last several decades can be attributes to human activities that release carbon dioxide (CO2), and other heat-trapping greenhouse gases (GHGs) into the atmosphere. The burning of fossil fuels–coal, oil, and natural gas–for energy is the single largest human driver of climate change
  25. ↑ IPCC, "Summary for Policymakers", Detection and Attribution of Climate Change, "It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century" (page 15) and "In this Summary for Policymakers, the following terms have been used to indicate the assessed likelihood of an outcome or a result: (...) extremely likely: 95–100%" (page 2).
  26. ↑ IPCC 2007 , Section 9.2: "Numerous experiments have been conducted using climate models to determine the likely causes of the 20th-century climate change. These experiments indicate that models cannot reproduce the rapid warming observed in recent decades when they only take into account variations in solar output and volcanic activity."
  27. ↑ US NRC (2008). "Understanding and responding to climate change: Highlights of National Academies Reports, 2008 edition, produced by the US National Research Council (US NRC)" (PDF). Washington, D.C., USA: National Academy of Sciences: 6. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2011-12-13.{{cite journal}}: Cite journal requires |journal= (help)
  28. ↑ USGCRP 2009 , p. 20: "Another fingerprint of human effects on climate has been identified by...studying the pattern of temperature changes from the surface up through the stratosphere. In all climate models, increases in carbon dioxide cause warming at the surface and in the troposphere, but lead to cooling of the stratosphere... models also calculate that the human-caused depletion of stratospheric ozone has had a strong cooling effect in the stratosphere. There is a good match between the...combined carbon dioxide and ozone changes and the observed pattern of tropospheric warming and stratospheric cooling."
  29. ↑ Simmon, R. & D. Herring (November 2009). "Notes for slide number 7, titled "Satellite evidence also suggests greenhouse gas warming," in presentation, "Human contributions to global climate change"". Presentation library on the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Services website. Archived from the original on 3 July 2011. Retrieved 2011-06-23.
  30. ↑ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007 , p. 60: "It is extremely unlikely (<5%) that the global pattern of warming observed during the past half century can be explained without external forcing. These changes took place over a time period when non-anthropogenic forcing factors (i.e., the sum of solar and volcanic forcing) would be likely to have produced cooling, not warming."
  31. ↑ USGCRP 2009: "When human influences are removed from the model experiments, results suggest that the surface of the Earth would actually have cooled slightly over the last 50 years. The clear message from fingerprint studies is that the observed warming over the last half-century cannot be explained by natural factors, and is instead caused primarily by human factors."
  32. ↑ "SIGNATORIES TO THE LEIPZIG DECLARATION". Archived from the original on July 15, 2006.
  33. ↑ "Manhattan Declaration on Climate Change" (Press release). The Heartland Institute. March 4, 2008. Retrieved 2013-06-03.
  34. ↑ Anthony Watts. Pipe Dream or Viable Energy? wattsupwiththat.com, October 19, 2007.
  35. ↑ AAP (June 10, 2010). "Climate sceptic to tour". The Weekly Times. Retrieved 2012-07-09.[ dead link ]
  36. ↑ "A new professional society for meteorology and climatology is announced". Watts Up With That. 16 September 2014. Archived from the original on 2014-09-18. Retrieved 2021-08-12. The purpose of The OAS is to provide a paperless and entirely online professional organization that will represent individuals who have been unrepresented by existing professional organizations that have become more activist than science based in their outlook.
  37. ↑ Schneider & Nocke 2014 , p. 171: "Despite the well-known facts under discussion, the original graph, based on a single outdated study published in 1991, continues to reappear again and again in climate skeptical media, trying to prove that the sun, not anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, is causing global warming. The original curve appears, for example, on Anthony Watts' climate skeptical blog "Watts Up With That?" in an article posted in 2011."
  38. 1 2 Grant 2011 , p. 302: "Watts is best known for his very heavily trafficked blog Watts Up With That?, began in 2006, which provides not just a megaphone for himself but a rallying ground for other AGW deniers, notably Christopher Monckton. The blog played an important role in the Climategate fiasco, through its dissemination of the hacked CRU emails."
  39. ↑ Kirilenko & Stepchenkova 2014 , p. 9: "The most authoritative climate change skepticism web sites included Watts Up With That? and Climate Depot"
  40. ↑ Brainard 2015 , p. 172: "At the other end of the spectrum are influential sites for "climate skeptics", such as Watts Up With That?, a blog run by meteorologist Anthony Watts, whom scientists have repeatedly criticized for misleading readers on subjects such as the reliability of the U.S. surface temperature record."
  41. 1 2 Hansen & Cox 2015 , p. 172: "In 2009, an unknown party acquired a large cache of private emails between climate scientists...and published them online. Cherry-picking quotes in order to make the scientists appear as though they were discussing data manipulation, bloggers such as Watts whipped up a pseudo-scandal that reverberated for years despite the fact that a series of nine investigations in the U.S. and the U.K. cleared the scientists of any wrongdoing.
  42. ↑ The eight major investigations covered by secondary sources include: House of Commons Science and Technology Committee (UK); Independent Climate Change Review (UK); International Science Assessment Panel Archived May 9, 2013, at the Wayback Machine (UK); Pennsylvania State University first panel Archived September 25, 2010, at the Wayback Machine and second panel Archived January 30, 2012, at the Wayback Machine (US); United States Environmental Protection Agency (US); Department of Commerce (US); National Science Foundation (US)
  43. ↑ Biello, David (2010). "Negating Climategate". Scientific American. 302 (2): 16. Bibcode:2010SciAm.302b..16B. doi:10.1038/scientificamerican0210-16a. ISSN   0036-8733. PMID   20128212. In fact, nothing in the stolen material undermines the scientific consensus that climate change is happening and that humans are to blame
  44. ↑ Lubchenco, Jane (2 December 2009) House Select Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming (House Select Committee). "The Administration's View on the State of Climate Science". House Hearing, 111 Congress. U.S. Government Printing Office. "...the e-mails really do nothing to undermine the very strong scientific consensus and the independent scientific analyses of thousands of scientists around the world that tell us that the Earth is warming and that the warming is largely a result of human activities." As quoted in the report published by Office of Inspector General.
  45. ↑ Anshelm & Hultman 2014 , pp. 154–156: "Climategate fundamentally damaged confidence in the IPCC climate reports and decisively changed the conditions for the Copenhagen negotiations...Climategate and the failure of Copenhagen coincided with a widespread decline in public acceptance that global warming was happening, was caused by humans, and was a serious threat...Climategate can also explain the erosion of public trust in scientists as sources of information on global warming after 2010."
  46. ↑ Dunlap & McCright 2011 , p. 153: "Having this powerful, pervasive and multifaceted media apparatus at its service provides the denial machine with a highly effective means of spreading its message, as reflected quite recently by its success in turning a tiny and highly unrepresentative sample of thirteen years worth of personal e-mails hacked from the Climate Research Unit at the University of East Anglia into a major scandal that has generated a decline in public belief in climate change and trust in climate scientists...despite the fact that several investigations have concluded that the e-mails neither demonstrate unethical behavior nor undermine climate science."
  47. ↑ Watts, Anthony (2009). Is the U.S. Surface Temperature Record Reliable? (PDF). Heartland Institute. ISBN   978-1-934791-29-5. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2013-08-13. Retrieved June 1, 2015.
  48. ↑ Powell 2012 , p. 136: "In 2007, Watts founded SurfaceStations.org...By early June 2009, thanks to a grass roots network of volunteers, SurfaceStations.org had examined about 70 percent of the 1,221 stations [and] classified 70 of the stations as having "good or best" reliability... since 1950, temperatures recorded at the 70 "good or best" stations are indistinguishable from the rest."
  49. ↑ Powell 2012 , p. 136: "By early June 2009, thanks to a grass roots network of volunteers, SurfaceStations.org had examined about 70 percent of the 1,221 stations [and] classified 70 of the stations as having "good or best" reliability... since 1950, temperatures recorded at the 70 "good or best" stations are indistinguishable from the rest."
  50. ↑ Hensen 2011: "[Anthony Watts] rallied more than 650 volunteers through Watts Up With That?...The investigators found hundreds of surface weather stations across the United States that were improperly located near water treatment plants, pavements, air conditioners, and other sources of artificial heat. A photo-studded report, "Is the US Surface Temperature Record Reliable?" was published by the Heartland Institute...Though the report wasn't a peer-reviewed study, it made quite a splash in the US media and the blogosphere."
  51. ↑ Powell 2012 , p. 136: "deniers say that the U.S. historical temperature record is unreliable because some weather stations are sited near trees, buildings, parking lots, air conditioners, and the like, causing the stations to record unrepresentative, and presumably warmer, local temperatures. The person most behind this claim is Anthony Watts
  52. 1 2 Mann 2013 , p. 72: "With the assistance of the Heartland Institute, Watts published a glossy, very official-looking report about the project... absent from that report, however, was any direct comparison showing what the surface temperature record looks like both with and without the sites that Watts deemed unworthy. Scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) went ahead and calculated it themselves, producing versions of the continental U.S. average temperature curve both with and without the records in question...Eliminating the "suspect" data made virtually no difference at all; in fact, the small bias that was found was of the opposite sign. The "corrected" record showed slightly more warming!"
  53. ↑ Weart 2015: "A study by members of the NOAA National Climatic Data Center separately analyzed the sites that Watts's volunteers identified as faulty, comparing them with the acknowledged good sites. They found that any bias introduced by poor siting had been mostly compensated for by the data reduction, which was designed precisely to remove biases by comparisons over regions and time. But if the raw data only were considered, the poor sites did not tend to overestimate warming compared with what NOAA had reported, as Watts had assumed; if anything the warming from these sites was greater than NOAA's earlier figures."
  54. ↑ Washington 2013 , p. 51: "There is a denial movement seeking to cast doubt on the surface temperature record using photographs of weather stations positioned near car parks, air conditioners and other warming influences (Watts, 2010). These photos attempt to communicate that the global warming trend is being inflated by poor temperature data... Poor sites show a cooler trend than good sites. All those photographed weather stations near car parks are actually giving cooler readings than pristine weather stations."
  55. ↑ Menne, Williams & Palecki 2010: "Recent photographic documentation of poor siting conditions at stations in the U.S. Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) has led to questions regarding the reliability of surface temperature trends over the conterminous United States (CONUS)...Results indicate that...associated instrument changes have led to an artificial negative ("cool") bias in maximum temperatures and only a slight positive ("warm") bias in minimum temperatures...In summary, we find no evidence that the CONUS average temperature trends are inflated due to poor station siting."
  56. ↑ Fall, Souleymane; Watts, Anthony; Nielsen-Gammon, John; Jones, Evan; Niyogi, Dev; Christy, John R.; Pielke, Sr., Roger A. (2011). "Analysis of the impacts of station exposure on the U.S. Historical Climatology Network temperatures and temperature trends" (PDF). Journal of Geophysical Research . 116 (D14120): D14120. Bibcode:2011JGRD..11614120F. doi: 10.1029/2010JD015146 .
  57. ↑ Black et al. 2013 , p. 1505: "We have done an initial study of the station selection issue...we see a global warming trend that is very similar to that previously reported by the other groups. We have also studied station quality. Many U.S. stations have low quality rankings according to a study led by Anthony Watts. However, we find that the warming seen in the "poor" stations is virtually indistinguishable from that seen in the "good" stations."
  58. ↑ Watts, Anthony (30 Jul 2012). "Backstory on the new surfacestations paper". Watts Up With That?. Retrieved 4 Jun 2015.
  59. ↑ Donald, Ros (3 August 2012). "'There's plenty of room for scepticism' – climate study author Richard Muller". The Guardian. Rolling back his previous promise to accept BEST's findings, the one-time BEST supporter has released a draft paper of his own, at about the same time as the new BEST results. Watts says his assessment of temperature stations shows that poor weather station siting has "spuriously" doubled estimates of temperature rise in the US
    Watts, Anthony (29 July 2012). "New study shows half of the global warming in the USA is artificial". Watts Up With That?. Archived from the original on 31 July 2012. Retrieved 4 Jun 2015. The new analysis demonstrates that reported 1979-2008 U.S. temperature trends are spuriously doubled, with 92% of that over-estimation resulting from erroneous NOAA adjustments of well-sited stations upward.
  60. ↑ Samenow, Jason (30 Jul 2012). "Blockbuster climate change studies prove little". Washington Post. Retrieved 4 Jun 2015. Watts is asserting the U.S. temperature trends you've seen reported from NOAA about warming in the last few decades are inflated due to flawed adjustments made to temperature records. The unadjusted highest quality temperature records in the U.S., Watts claims, demonstrate about half the warming as NOAA's adjusted data. …. given the serious accusations Watts et al. make about the integrity of NOAA's temperature analysis, it's critical NOAA be given the opportunity to respond just as they did the last time Watts issued such a challenge in 2009. NOAA's U.S. temperature record has been painstakingly constructed by many scientists over many years and many peer-reviewed publications support its methodologies.
  61. ↑ Samenow, Jason (31 Jul 2012). "More evidence attention-grabbing climate studies were prematurely rushed". Washington Post. Retrieved 4 Jun 2015.
  62. ↑ Farmer 2014 , p. 44: "Global average temperatures for 2013 have recently been published by the BEST study...2010 and 2005 remain the warmest years since records began in the 19th century. 1998 ranks third in two records, and in Cowtan and Way's 2014 analysis...2013 is warmer than 1998."
  63. ↑ Burleigh, Nina (February 17, 2012). "Secret papers turn up heat on global-warming deniers". Salon . Archived from the original on 2012-07-27. Retrieved 2012-08-10.
  64. ↑ "2012 Fundraising Plan" (PDF). The Heartland Institute. January 15, 2012. Archived from the original (PDF) on August 14, 2012. Retrieved July 15, 2012.
  65. ↑ Hickman, Leo (February 15, 2012). "Climate sceptics – who gets paid what?". The Guardian . Retrieved 2012-02-15.
  66. ↑ Black, Richard (15 February 2012). "Openness: A Heartland-warming tale". BBC News.
  67. ↑ Goldenberg, Suzanne (February 14, 2012). "Leak exposes how Heartland Institute works to undermine climate science". The Guardian . Retrieved 2012-08-10.

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Four main lines of evidence support attribution of recent climate change to human activities: Firstly, a physical understanding of the climate system: greenhouse gas concentrations have increased and their warming properties are well-established. Secondly, there are historical estimates of past climate changes suggest that the recent changes in global surface temperature are unusual. Thirdly, computer-based climate models are unable to replicate the observed warming unless human greenhouse gas emissions are included. And finally, natural forces alone cannot explain the observed warming.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Climate</span> Statistics of weather conditions in a given region over long periods

Climate is the long-term weather pattern in a region, typically averaged over 30 years. More rigorously, it is the mean and variability of meteorological variables over a time spanning from months to millions of years. Some of the meteorological variables that are commonly measured are temperature, humidity, atmospheric pressure, wind, and precipitation. In a broader sense, climate is the state of the components of the climate system, including the atmosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere, lithosphere and biosphere and the interactions between them. The climate of a location is affected by its latitude, longitude, terrain, altitude, land use and nearby water bodies and their currents.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Fred Singer</span> Austrian-born American physicist (1924–2020)

Siegfried Fred Singer was an Austrian-born American physicist and emeritus professor of environmental science at the University of Virginia, trained as an atmospheric physicist. He was known for rejecting the scientific consensus on several issues, including climate change, the connection between UV-B exposure and melanoma rates, stratospheric ozone loss being caused by chlorofluoro compounds, often used as refrigerants, and the health risks of passive smoking.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Instrumental temperature record</span> In situ measurements that provide the temperature of Earths climate system

The instrumental temperature record is a record of temperatures within Earth's climate based on direct measurement of air temperature and ocean temperature, using thermometers and other thermometry devices. Instrumental temperature records are distinguished from indirect reconstructions using climate proxy data such as from tree rings and ocean sediments. Instrument-based data are collected from thousands of meteorological stations, buoys and ships around the globe. Whilst many heavily-populated areas have a high density of measurements, observations are more widely spread in sparsely populated areas such as polar regions and deserts, as well as over many parts of Africa and South America. Measurements were historically made using mercury or alcohol thermometers which were read manually, but are increasingly made using electronic sensors which transmit data automatically. Records of global average surface temperature are usually presented as anomalies rather than as absolute temperatures. A temperature anomaly is measured against a reference value. For example, a commonly used baseline period is the time period 1951-1980.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Scientific consensus on climate change</span> Evaluation of climate change by the scientific community

There is a strong scientific consensus that the Earth has been consistently warming since the start of the Industrial Revolution, and the rate of recent warming is largely unprecedented. This warming is mainly caused by the rapid increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) since 1750 from human activities such as fossil fuel combustion, cement production, and land use changes such as deforestation, with a significant supporting role from the other greenhouse gases such as methane and nitrous oxide. This human role in climate change is now considered "unequivocal" and "incontrovertible".

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Michael E. Mann</span> American physicist and climatologist

Michael Evan Mann is an American climatologist and geophysicist. He is the director of the Center for Science, Sustainability & the Media at the University of Pennsylvania. Mann has contributed to the scientific understanding of historic climate change based on the temperature record of the past thousand years. He has pioneered techniques to find patterns in past climate change and to isolate climate signals from noisy data.

Thomas R. Karl is the former director of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI). He joined the National Climate Centre in 1980, and when that became the National Climatic Data Center, he continued as a researcher, becoming a Lab Chief, Senior Scientist and ultimately Director of the Center. When it merged with other centers to become NCEI in 2015, he became its first director. He retired on 4 August 2016.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Kevin Trenberth</span> New Zealand and American climatologist

Kevin Edward Trenberth worked as a climatologist at the Climate Analysis Section at the US NCAR National Center for Atmospheric Research. He was appointed Distinguished Scholar at NCAR in 2020. He is also an honorary faculty member in the Physics Department at the University of Auckland, New Zealand. He was a lead author of the 1995, 2001 and 2007 IPCC Scientific Assessment of Climate Change and served on the Scientific Steering Group for the Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) program.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Heartland Institute</span> Conservative and libertarian American think tank

The Heartland Institute is an American conservative and libertarian public policy think tank known for its rejection of both the scientific consensus on climate change and the negative health impacts of smoking.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Christopher Landsea</span> American meteorologist

Christopher William "Chris" Landsea is an American meteorologist, formerly a research meteorologist with the Hurricane Research Division of the Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory at NOAA, and now the Science and Operations Officer at the National Hurricane Center. He is a member of the American Geophysical Union and the American Meteorological Society.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Climate change denial</span> Denial of the scientific consensus on climate change

Climate change denial is pseudoscientific dismissal or unwarranted doubt that contradicts the scientific consensus on climate change. Those promoting denial commonly use rhetorical tactics to give the appearance of a scientific controversy where there is none. Climate change denial includes doubts to the extent of how much climate change is caused by humans, its effects on nature and human society, and the potential of adaptation to global warming by human actions. To a lesser extent, climate change denial can also be implicit when people accept the science but fail to reconcile it with their belief or action. Several social science studies have analyzed these positions as forms of denialism, pseudoscience, or propaganda.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">DeSmog</span> Blog focusing on topics related to global warming

DeSmog, founded in January 2006, is a journalistic and activist website that focuses on topics related to climate change. The site was founded, originally in blog format, by James Hoggan, president of a public relations firm based in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada.

The New Zealand Climate Science Coalition was a anthropogenic climate change denial organisation in New Zealand, formed in 2006 with aim of "refuting what it believes were unfounded claims about anthropogenic global warming". The Coalition came to prominence in 2010 when it challenged the methodology and accuracy of NIWA's historical temperature records in court. The Coalition lost the case, could not afford to pay costs awarded against it and was forced into liquidation. There is an unrelated website called the New Zealand Climate Science Coalition which is an American blog also written by climate change deniers. The American website links to a different URL to the original URL associated with the New Zealand website which no longer exists.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">History of climate change science</span> Aspect of the history of science

The history of the scientific discovery of climate change began in the early 19th century when ice ages and other natural changes in paleoclimate were first suspected and the natural greenhouse effect was first identified. In the late 19th century, scientists first argued that human emissions of greenhouse gases could change Earth's energy balance and climate. The existence of the greenhouse effect, while not named as such, was proposed as early as 1824 by Joseph Fourier. The argument and the evidence were further strengthened by Claude Pouillet in 1827 and 1838. In 1856 Eunice Newton Foote demonstrated that the warming effect of the sun is greater for air with water vapour than for dry air, and the effect is even greater with carbon dioxide.

The Climatic Research Unit email controversy began in November 2009 with the hacking of a server at the Climatic Research Unit (CRU) at the University of East Anglia (UEA) by an external attacker, copying thousands of emails and computer files to various internet locations several weeks before the Copenhagen Summit on climate change.

Watts Up With That? (WUWT) is a blog promoting climate change denial that was created by Anthony Watts in 2006.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Berkeley Earth</span> Climatological research institute

Berkeley Earth is a Berkeley, California-based independent 501(c)(3) non-profit focused on land temperature data analysis for climate science. Berkeley Earth was founded in early 2010 to address the major concerns from outside the scientific community regarding global warming and the instrumental temperature record. The project's stated aim was a "transparent approach, based on data analysis." In February 2013, Berkeley Earth became an independent non-profit. In August 2013, Berkeley Earth was granted 501(c)(3) tax-exempt status by the US government. The primary product is air temperatures over land, but they also produce a global dataset resulting from a merge of their land data with HadSST.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Global surface temperature</span> Average temperature of the Earths surface

In earth science, global surface temperature is calculated by averaging the temperatures over sea and land.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Global warming hiatus</span> Period of little Earth temperature change

A global warming hiatus, also sometimes referred to as a global warming pause or a global warming slowdown, is a period of relatively little change in globally averaged surface temperatures. In the current episode of global warming many such 15-year periods appear in the surface temperature record, along with robust evidence of the long-term warming trend. Such a "hiatus" is shorter than the 30-year periods that climate is classically averaged over.

References

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