Bond vigilante

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A bond vigilante is a bond market investor who protests against monetary or fiscal policies considered inflationary by selling bonds, thus increasing yields. [1]

Contents

In the bond market, prices move inversely to yields. When investors perceive that inflation risk or credit risk is rising they demand higher yields to compensate for the added risk. [2] As a result, bond prices fall and yields rise, which increases the net cost of borrowing. The term refers to the (alleged) ability of the bond market to serve as a restraint on the government's ability to over-spend and over-borrow. [3]

United States

Clinton administration

From October 1993 to November 1994 US 10-year yields climbed from 5.2% to just over 8.0% fueled by concerns about federal spending in what became informally known as the "Great Bond Massacre." With some guidance from Robert Rubin, the United States Secretary of the Treasury, the Clinton administration and Congress made an effort to reduce the deficit, and 10-year yields dropped to approximately 4% by November 1998. [1]

Clinton political adviser James Carville said at the time, "I used to think that if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the president or the pope or as a .400 baseball hitter. But now I would like to come back as the bond market. You can intimidate everybody." [1]

Obama administration

During the Obama administration some suggest that bond vigilantes were making a return with worries over sustainability and budgetary responsibility. Mark MacQueen, a partner and money manager at Sage Advisory Services Ltd., based in Austin, Texas, said, "The vigilante group is different this time around. Its major foreign creditors. This whole idea that we need to spend our way out of our problems is being questioned." [1] However, economist Paul Krugman and other New Keynesians pointed out that there was no evidence for bond vigilante activity by pointing out the fact that 10-year yields remained quite low. [4]

United Kingdom

Bond vigilantes have been described as partly responsible for the British government headed by Liz Truss's U-turn on its proposed mini-budget, which would have greatly increased disposable income by cutting taxes across the board. [5] [6] As a result of the proposed plan, the British pound fell to its all time low against the dollar [7] and government bond yields rose to multi-year highs, [8] forcing the Bank of England to intervene and causing Liz Truss to sack then Chancellor of the Exchequer Kwasi Kwarteng. [9] After new Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt announced the plan would be scrapped on 17 October, bond markets began to stabilize. [10]

Eurozone

During the eurozone crisis that started in 2009, bond vigilantes were blamed for pushing up the government borrowing in the periphery countries. However, many economists agree with Ed Yardeni, who coined the term "bond Vigilantes" in the 1980s, that actions of central banks are able to keep rates low against the pressure of bond vigilantes. [11]

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Yield curve</span> Relationships among bond yields of different maturities

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Austerity</span> Economic policies intended to reduce government budget deficits

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Quantitative easing</span> Monetary policy tool

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">European debt crisis</span> Multi-year debt crisis in multiple EU countries since late 2009

The European debt crisis, often also referred to as the eurozone crisis or the European sovereign debt crisis, was a multi-year debt crisis that took place in the European Union (EU) from 2009 until the mid to late 2010s. Several eurozone member states were unable to repay or refinance their government debt or to bail out over-indebted banks under their national supervision without the assistance of third parties like other eurozone countries, the European Central Bank (ECB), or the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Greek government-debt crisis</span> Sovereign debt crisis faced by Greece (2009–2018)

Greece faced a sovereign debt crisis in the aftermath of the financial crisis of 2007–2008. Widely known in the country as The Crisis, it reached the populace as a series of sudden reforms and austerity measures that led to impoverishment and loss of income and property, as well as a small-scale humanitarian crisis. In all, the Greek economy suffered the longest recession of any advanced mixed economy to date. As a result, the Greek political system has been upended, social exclusion increased, and hundreds of thousands of well-educated Greeks have left the country.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2000s European sovereign debt crisis timeline</span>

From late 2009, fears of a sovereign debt crisis in some European states developed, with the situation becoming particularly tense in early 2010. Greece was most acutely affected, but fellow Eurozone members Cyprus, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and Spain were also significantly affected. In the EU, especially in countries where sovereign debt has increased sharply due to bank bailouts, a crisis of confidence has emerged with the widening of bond yield spreads and risk insurance on credit default swaps between these countries and other EU members, most importantly Germany.

Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) is a program of the European Central Bank under which the bank makes purchases in secondary, sovereign bond markets, under certain conditions, of bonds issued by Eurozone member-states. The program was presented by its supporters as a principal manifestation of Mario Draghi's commitment to do "whatever it takes" to preserve the euro.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">European debt crisis contagion</span>

European debt crisis contagion refers to the possible spread of the ongoing European sovereign-debt crisis to other Eurozone countries. This could make it difficult or impossible for more countries to repay or re-finance their government debt without the assistance of third parties. By 2012 the debt crisis forced 5 out of 17 Eurozone countries to seek help from other nations. Some believed that negative effects could spread further possibly forcing one or more countries into default.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Causes of the European debt crisis</span>

The European debt crisis is an ongoing financial crisis that has made it difficult or impossible for some countries in the euro area to repay or re-finance their government debt without the assistance of third parties.

The corporate debt bubble is the large increase in corporate bonds, excluding that of financial institutions, following the financial crisis of 2007–08. Global corporate debt rose from 84% of gross world product in 2009 to 92% in 2019, or about $72 trillion. In the world's eight largest economies—the United States, China, Japan, the United Kingdom, France, Spain, Italy, and Germany—total corporate debt was about $51 trillion in 2019, compared to $34 trillion in 2009. Excluding debt held by financial institutions—which trade debt as mortgages, student loans, and other instruments—the debt owed by non-financial companies in early March 2020 was $13 trillion worldwide, of which about $9.6 trillion was in the U.S.

In 2009–2010, due to substantial public and private sector debt, and "the intimate sovereign-bank linkages" the eurozone crisis impacted periphery countries. This resulted in significant financial sector instability in Europe; banks' solvency risks grew, which had direct implications for their funding liquidity. The European central bank (ECB), as the monetary union's central bank, responded to the sovereign debt crisis with a series of conventional and unconventional measures, including a decrease in the key policy interest rate, and three-year long-term refinancing operation (LTRO) liquidity injections in December 2011 and February 2012, and the announcement of the outright monetary transactions (OMT) program in the summer of 2012. The ECB acted as a de facto lender-of-last-resort (LOLR) to the euro area banking system, providing banks with cash flow in exchange for collateral, as well as a buyer of last resort (BOLR), purchasing eurozone sovereign bonds. However, the ECB's policies have been criticised for their economic repercussions as well as its political agenda. 

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Premiership of Liz Truss</span> Period of the Government of the United Kingdom in 2022

Liz Truss's tenure as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom began on 6 September 2022 when she accepted an invitation from Queen Elizabeth II to form a government, succeeding Boris Johnson, and ended 50 days later on 25 October upon her resignation. As prime minister, Truss served simultaneously as First Lord of the Treasury, Minister for the Civil Service, and Minister for the Union.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">September 2022 United Kingdom mini-budget</span>

On 23 September 2022, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Kwasi Kwarteng, delivered a Ministerial Statement entitled "The Growth Plan" to the House of Commons. Widely referred to in the media as a mini-budget, it contained a set of economic policies and tax cuts such as bringing forward the planned cut in the basic rate of income tax from 20% to 19%; abolishing the highest (45%) rate of income tax in England, Wales and Northern Ireland; reversing a plan announced in March 2021 to increase corporation tax from 19% to 25% from April 2023; reversing the April 2022 increase in National Insurance; and cancelling the proposed Health and Social Care Levy. Following widespread negative response to the mini-budget, the planned abolition of the 45% tax rate was reversed 10 days later, while plans to cancel the increase in corporation tax were reversed 21 days later.

References

  1. 1 2 3 4 May 29, 2009. Bloomberg - Bond Vigilantes Confront Obama as Housing Falters Archived January 23, 2009, at the Wayback Machine
  2. "Best of Richard Russell". Archived from the original on 2008-04-30. Retrieved 2009-01-30.
  3. Caroline Baum (January 11, 2017). "Don't expect the bond vigilantes to do the Fed's work".
  4. Paul Krugman (November 19, 2009). "Don't expect the bond vigilantes to do the Fed's work". Archived from the original on January 4, 2013. Retrieved June 28, 2010.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: bot: original URL status unknown (link)
  5. Jones, Marc; Bahceli, Yoruk (2022-10-17). "Analysis: Bond vigilantes mean business, governments better beware". Reuters. Retrieved 2022-10-17.
  6. "UK's wake-up call on bond vigilantes". Financial Times. 2022-10-07. Retrieved 2022-10-17.
  7. Mccrank, John (2022-09-26). "Sterling hits all-time low versus broadly stronger dollar". Reuters. Retrieved 2022-10-17.
  8. "UK 30-year yields hit highest since 2002, extending post-tax cuts surge". Reuters. 2022-09-27. Retrieved 2022-10-17.
  9. Holden, Michael; Smout, Alistair (2022-10-15). "As UK's Truss fights for job, new finance minister says she made mistakes". Reuters. Retrieved 2022-10-17.
  10. "Pound strengthens and bonds rally after Jeremy Hunt takes axe to Liz Truss Budget". The Independent. 2022-10-17. Retrieved 2022-10-17.
  11. "Ed Yardeni: "Bond Vigilantes" Get to Work in the Eurozone". NZZ Capital Markets forum. 2012. Archived from the original on 2021-12-15.