Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis

Last updated
Headquarters at Bezuidenhoutseweg 30 in The Hague Bezuidenhoutseweg 30 entrance (April 2020).jpg
Headquarters at Bezuidenhoutseweg 30 in The Hague

The Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (Dutch : Centraal Planbureau, CPB, literal translation: Central Planning Bureau) is a part of the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate Policy of the Netherlands. Its goal is to deliver economic analyses and forecasts. The CPB is an independent government agency founded at 15 September 1945 by Nobel laureate Jan Tinbergen. On 21 April 1947, it obtained its legal basis. It is located in The Hague, on Bezuidenhoutseweg.

Contents

The CPB sets its own research agenda, but it is open to requests for policy research from the Dutch government, Parliaments and political parties and ministries of the Netherlands. It also provides reports and advice for European Union initiatives. The CPB is financed by the Ministry of Economic Affairs, but it operates independently. This means it does have a stable income but also does not have to follow the ministry. This combination is the foundation for the unique status of the CPB. The director of the CPB is one of the government appointed members (Dutch: kroonleden) in the Social and Economic Council.

Economic forecasts

Twice a year, the CPB publishes a macroeconomic forecast called the "Central Economic Plan (CEP)" and the "Macroeconomic Explorations (MEV)". [1]

The CEP is published in March. It includes the forecast for all the major variables and the current policies. At this point in time, new policies are decided or changed and they have a chance to look at the coming economic situation. For this purpose, it updates the forecasts of the previous MEV about the effects of the policies. A provisional version of the CEP is supplied to the cabinet in January or February, which is used by the minister of finance for the expenditure targets.

The MEV is published in September simultaneously with the publication of government budgets for the following year. It includes forecast for all the major variables and the effects of the new policies since last year. A preliminary, confidential, draft is sent to the government in June. Some adjustments of expenditures and revenues between the draft and the final version can be made.

Analysis of election programmes

Before elections, the CPB is asked to analyze the election programmes of the major parties for the effects of proposed policies on the budget deficit, unemployment, inflation, income differentials, and so forth. [2] This makes a clear guide for voters because of the following advantages: [3]

It is also not uncommon to use the results of the CPB to defend attack or compare the different policies.

Parties voluntarily subject their programs to CPB analysis. However, after the elections of 1986, it became a custom that each major party asked the CPB to forecast the consequences of their election program. In general, the parties seem to worry more about being accused of not wanting to face the economic consequences of their proposals than showing negative results. In 2002, the party "List Pim Fortuyn" did not submit their elections platform, although it came in as second largest party. [1]

The CPB analyzes government budget proposals on its own initiative. The analysis is considered a key document when determining how successful a government is with it policies. The results of this analysis is the basis for the income and expenditure for the Ministry of Economic Affairs. Through the independent status of the CPB, it is in practice impossible for the Dutch government to use their own models and interpretations of statistics. This forces the government, regardless of who is in power, to stay within the given boundaries and lowers the chance of budget surprises. It also increases the credibility of the ministry estimates.

Models

The CPB uses a suite of economic models to analyze economic effects of policies and the economy at large. Their current main model is SAFFIER II, next to this there are several small models which can be attached to SAFFIER II. [4]

The CPB models are regularly updated to reflect new theoretical insights and needs for outcomes. [5]

International coordination

The CPB is a member of the EU Independent Fiscal Institutions Network set up by the EU in September 2015. In addition to the CPB, the Netherlands is also represented by the Council of State.

Controversy

In 2011, the CPB conducted a study on the effects of the Euro for the Netherlands. The results were, among others, published in the book 'Europa in crisis' (Europe in crisis). One of the conclusions of the research was that the Euro had brought about a week's pay in benefits to the Dutch population (i.e. about 2% income). In an interview in De Telegraaf in May 2014, former director Coen Teulings stated that the study performed under his supervision should be taken with a grain of salt, adding that the economic advantages "aren't very clear". [6]

Directors

The directors of the bureau have been:

Beside the directors, other notable researchers of the institute have been:

Applied policy research institutes

The CPB is one of the three applied policy research institutes of the Government of the Netherlands, the other two being:

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Jan Tinbergen</span> Dutch economist (1903–1994)

Jan Tinbergen was a Dutch economist who was awarded the first Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences in 1969, which he shared with Ragnar Frisch for having developed and applied dynamic models for the analysis of economic processes. He is widely considered to be one of the most influential economists of the 20th century and one of the founding fathers of econometrics.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Lawrence Klein</span> American economist

Lawrence Robert Klein was an American economist. For his work in creating computer models to forecast economic trends in the field of econometrics in the Department of Economics at the University of Pennsylvania, he was awarded the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences in 1980 specifically "for the creation of econometric models and their application to the analysis of economic fluctuations and economic policies." Due to his efforts, such models have become widespread among economists. Harvard University professor Martin Feldstein told the Wall Street Journal that Klein "was the first to create the statistical models that embodied Keynesian economics," tools still used by the Federal Reserve Bank and other central banks.

A macroeconomic model is an analytical tool designed to describe the operation of the problems of economy of a country or a region. These models are usually designed to examine the comparative statics and dynamics of aggregate quantities such as the total amount of goods and services produced, total income earned, the level of employment of productive resources, and the level of prices.

The polder model is a method of consensus decision-making, based on the Dutch version of consensus-based economic and social policymaking in the 1980s and 1990s. It gets its name from the Dutch word (polder) for tracts of land enclosed by dikes.

In social sciences, especially economics, a stylized fact is a simplified presentation of an empirical finding. Stylized facts are broad tendencies that aim to summarize the data, offering essential truths while ignoring individual details.

Articles in economics journals are usually classified according to JEL classification codes, which derive from the Journal of Economic Literature. The JEL is published quarterly by the American Economic Association (AEA) and contains survey articles and information on recently published books and dissertations. The AEA maintains EconLit, a searchable data base of citations for articles, books, reviews, dissertations, and working papers classified by JEL codes for the years from 1969. A recent addition to EconLit is indexing of economics journal articles from 1886 to 1968 parallel to the print series Index of Economic Articles.

Dynamic scoring is a forecasting technique for government revenues, expenditures, and budget deficits that incorporates predictions about the behavior of people and organizations based on changes in fiscal policy, usually tax rates. Dynamic scoring depends on models of the behavior of economic agents which predict how they would react once the tax rate or other policy change goes into effect. This means the uncertainty induced in predictions is greater to the degree that the proposed policy is unlike current policy. Unfortunately, any such model depends heavily on judgment, and there is no evidence that it is more effective or accurate.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">United States federal budget</span> Budget of the U.S. federal government

The United States budget comprises the spending and revenues of the U.S. federal government. The budget is the financial representation of the priorities of the government, reflecting historical debates and competing economic philosophies. The government primarily spends on healthcare, retirement, and defense programs. The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office provides extensive analysis of the budget and its economic effects. CBO estimated in February 2024 that Federal debt held by the public is projected to rise from 99 percent of GDP in 2024 to 116 percent in 2034 and would continue to grow if current laws generally remained unchanged. Over that period, the growth of interest costs and mandatory spending outpaces the growth of revenues and the economy, driving up debt. Those factors persist beyond 2034, pushing federal debt higher still, to 172 percent of GDP in 2054.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency</span>

The Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency is a Dutch research institute that advises the Dutch government on environmental policy and regional planning issues. Operating as an autonomous entity within the Dutch Government organization, specifically under the Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management. While primarily associated with the Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management, PBL's expertise is also sought by other government departments, including the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate Policy, the Ministry of the Interior and Kingdom Relations, the Ministry of Agriculture, Nature and Food Quality, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The research fields include sustainable development, energy and climate change, biodiversity, transport, land use, and air quality. It is one of three applied policy research institutes of the Dutch government, the other two being Centraal Planbureau (CPB), and The Netherlands Institute for Social Research (SCP). Since January 2023 Marko Hekkert is director of the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency.

A government budget is a projection of the government's revenues and expenditure for a particular period of time often referred to as a financial or fiscal year, which may or may not correspond with the calendar year. Government revenues mostly include taxes while expenditures consist of government spending. A government budget is prepared by the government or other political entity. In most parliamentary systems, the budget is presented to the legislature and often requires approval of the legislature. Through this budget, the government implements economic policy and realizes its program priorities. Once the budget is approved, the use of funds from individual chapters is in the hands of government ministries and other institutions. Revenues of the state budget consist mainly of taxes, customs duties, fees and other revenues. State budget expenditures cover the activities of the state, which are either given by law or the constitution. The budget in itself does not appropriate funds for government programs, hence need for additional legislative measures. The word budget comes from the Old French bougette.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Henri Theil</span> Dutch econometrician (1924–2000)

Henri (Hans) Theil was a Dutch econometrician and professor at the Netherlands School of Economics in Rotterdam, known for his contributions to the field of econometrics.

Public economics(or economics of the public sector) is the study of government policy through the lens of economic efficiency and equity. Public economics builds on the theory of welfare economics and is ultimately used as a tool to improve social welfare. Welfare can be defined in terms of well-being, prosperity, and overall state of being.

An economic impact analysis (EIA) examines the effect of an event on the economy in a specified area, ranging from a single neighborhood to the entire globe. It usually measures changes in business revenue, business profits, personal wages, and/or jobs. The economic event analyzed can include implementation of a new policy or project, or may simply be the presence of a business or organization. An economic impact analysis is commonly conducted when there is public concern about the potential impacts of a proposed project or policy.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Office for Budget Responsibility</span> Advisory non-departmental public body in the UK

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) is a non-departmental public body funded by the UK Treasury, that the UK government established to provide independent economic forecasts and independent analysis of the public finances. It was formally created in May 2010 following the general election and was placed on a statutory footing by the Budget Responsibility and National Audit Act 2011. It is one of a growing number of official independent fiscal watchdogs around the world.

The Federal Planning Bureau (FPB) is a Belgian independent public agency. It makes studies and projections on economic, social and environmental policy issues and on their integration within the context of sustainable development. The last Plan Commissioner was Philippe Donnay, assisted by Deputy Commissioner Saskia Weemaes.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Willem Somermeyer</span> Dutch economist

Willem Hendrik Somermeyer was a Dutch economist, Professor in Econometrics at the Erasmus University Rotterdam, and member of the Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences, particularly known for his consumption-savings model.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Coen Teulings</span> Dutch economist (born 1958)

Coenraad Nicolaas (Coen) Teulings is a Dutch economist and distinguished professor at Utrecht University. He was formerly professor of Economics at the University of Amsterdam and the University of Cambridge and former Director of the Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis, as well as Chairman of Merifin Capital.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Wim Driehuis</span> Dutch economist

Wim Driehuis is a Dutch economist, Emeritus Professor Economics and Business at the University of Amsterdam.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Paul Tang (politician)</span> Dutch politician

Paul Johannes George Tang is a Dutch politician who has been serving as a Member of the European Parliament (MEP) since 2014. He is a member of the Labour Party, part of the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats. Between 2007 and 2010 Tang was member of the House of Representatives of the Netherlands.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">The Netherlands Institute for Social Research</span>

The Netherlands Institute for Social Research is a Dutch interdepartmental scientific institute that carries out solicited and unsolicited social scientific research. The SCP reports to the government, the Senate and House of Representatives, the ministries and social and government organisations. The SCP is formally part of the Ministry of Health, Welfare and Sport. The SCP was established by Royal Decree on March 30, 1973. The Netherlands has two planning offices. The oldest is the Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB), which is mainly concerned with economic development. The Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency focuses primarily on spatial planning and the sustainability and quality of the living environment.

References

  1. 1 2 Kraan, D. (2005). Typically Dutch. OECD Journal on Budgeting, 4(4), 103-125. DOI:10.1787/16812336
  2. Faludi A. 2005. “The Netherlands: A Country with a Soft Spot for Planning.” In Comparative Planning Cultures, edited by Sanyal B. 285–307. New York/London: Routledge. Download
  3. Bos, F. (2007). The Dutch fiscal framework: History, current practice and the role of the CPB. Current Practice and the Role of the CPB, Available at SSRN
  4. SAFFIER II: 1 model voor de Nederlandse economie, in 2 hoedanigheden, voor 3 toepassingen (in dutch)Download
  5. Don, F., & Verbruggen, J. P. (2006), Models and methods for economic policy: 60 years of evolution at CPB. Statistica Neerlandica, 60: 145–170. doi: 10.1111/j.1467-9574.2006.00323.x
  6. Telegraaf.nl (2014) (in Dutch): CPB overdreef voordeel euro

Further reading