Consumption-based capital asset pricing model

Last updated

The consumption-based capital asset pricing model (CCAPM) is a model of the determination of expected (i.e. required) return on an investment. [1] The foundations of this concept were laid by the research of Robert Lucas (1978) and Douglas Breeden (1979). [2]

The model is a generalization of the capital asset pricing model (CAPM). While the CAPM is derived in a static, one-period setting, the CCAPM uses a more realistic, multiple-period setup. The central implication of the CCAPM is that the expected return on an asset is related to "consumption risk", that is, how much uncertainty in consumption would come from holding the asset. Assets that lead to a large amount of uncertainty offer large expected returns, as investors want to be compensated for bearing consumption risk.

The CAPM can be derived from the following special cases of the CCAPM: (1) a two-period model with quadratic utility, (2) two-periods, exponential utility, and normally-distributed returns, (3) infinite-periods, quadratic utility, and stochastic independence across time, (4) infinite periods and log utility, and (5) a first-order approximation of a general model with normal distributions. [3]

Formally, the CCAPM states that the expected risk premium on a risky asset, defined as the expected return on a risky asset less the risk free return, is proportional to the covariance of its return and consumption in the period of the return. The consumption beta is included, and the expected return is calculated as follows: [4]

where
= expected return on security or portfolio
= risk free rate
= consumption beta (of individual company or weighted average of portfolio), and
= return from the market

Related Research Articles

Financial economics is the branch of economics characterized by a "concentration on monetary activities", in which "money of one type or another is likely to appear on both sides of a trade". Its concern is thus the interrelation of financial variables, such as prices, interest rates and shares, as opposed to those concerning the real economy. It has two main areas of focus: asset pricing and corporate finance; the first being the perspective of providers of capital, i.e. investors, and the second of users of capital. It thus provides the theoretical underpinning for much of finance.

Capital asset pricing model

In finance, the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) is a model used to determine a theoretically appropriate required rate of return of an asset, to make decisions about adding assets to a well-diversified portfolio.

Risk aversion economics theory

In economics and finance, risk aversion is the tendency of people to prefer outcomes with low uncertainty to those outcomes with high uncertainty, even if the average outcome of the latter is equal to or higher in monetary value than the more certain outcome. Risk aversion explains the inclination to agree to a situation with a more predictable, but possibly lower payoff, rather than another situation with a highly unpredictable, but possibly higher payoff. For example, a risk-averse investor might choose to put their money into a bank account with a low but guaranteed interest rate, rather than into a stock that may have high expected returns, but also involves a chance of losing value.

Modern portfolio theory (MPT), or mean-variance analysis, is a mathematical framework for assembling a portfolio of assets such that the expected return is maximized for a given level of risk. It is a formalization and extension of diversification in investing, the idea that owning different kinds of financial assets is less risky than owning only one type. Its key insight is that an asset's risk and return should not be assessed by itself, but by how it contributes to a portfolio's overall risk and return. It uses the variance of asset prices as a proxy for risk.

In finance, arbitrage pricing theory (APT) is a general theory of asset pricing that holds that the expected return of a financial asset can be modeled as a linear function of various factors or theoretical market indices, where sensitivity to changes in each factor is represented by a factor-specific beta coefficient. The model-derived rate of return will then be used to price the asset correctly—the asset price should equal the expected end of period price discounted at the rate implied by the model. If the price diverges, arbitrage should bring it back into line. The theory was proposed by the economist Stephen Ross in 1976. The linear factor model structure of the APT is used as the basis for many of the commercial risk systems employed by asset managers.

In finance, the beta is a measure of how an individual asset moves when the overall stock market increases or decreases. Thus, beta is a useful measure of the contribution of an individual asset to the risk of the market portfolio when it is added in small quantity. Thus, beta is referred to as an asset's non-diversifiable risk, its systematic risk, market risk, or hedge ratio. Beta is not a measure of idiosyncratic risk.

The equity premium puzzle refers to the inability of an important class of economic models to explain the average equity risk premium (ERP) provided by a diversified portfolio of U.S. equities over that of U.S. Treasury Bills, which has been observed for more than 100 years.

In finance, Jensen's alpha is used to determine the abnormal return of a security or portfolio of securities over the theoretical expected return. It is a version of the standard alpha based on a theoretical performance instead of a market index.

Alpha is a measure of the active return on an investment, the performance of that investment compared with a suitable market index. An alpha of 1% means the investment's return on investment over a selected period of time was 1% better than the market during that same period; a negative alpha means the investment underperformed the market. Alpha, along with beta, is one of two key coefficients in the capital asset pricing model used in modern portfolio theory and is closely related to other important quantities such as standard deviation, R-squared and the Sharpe ratio.

A market anomaly in a financial market is predictability that seems to be inconsistent with theories of asset prices. Standard theories include the capital asset pricing model and the Fama-French Three Factor Model, but a lack of agreement among academics about the proper theory leads many to refer to anomalies without a reference to a benchmark theory. Indeed, many academics simply refer to anomalies as "return predictors", avoiding the problem of defining a benchmark theory.

Security market line

Security market line (SML) is the representation of the capital asset pricing model. It displays the expected rate of return of an individual security as a function of systematic, non-diversifiable risk. The risk of an individual risky security reflects the volatility of the return from security rather than the return of the market portfolio. The risk in these individual risky securities reflects the systematic risk.

The single-index model (SIM) is a simple asset pricing model to measure both the risk and the return of a stock. The model has been developed by William Sharpe in 1963 and is commonly used in the finance industry. Mathematically the SIM is expressed as:

Consumption smoothing is the economic concept used to express the desire of people to have a stable path of consumption. People desire to translate their consumption from periods of high income to periods of low income to obtain more stability and predictability. There exists many states of the world, which means there are many possible outcomes that can occur throughout an individual's life. Therefore, to reduce the uncertainty that occurs, people choose to give up some consumption today to prevent against an adverse outcome in the future. In order for one to adequately and properly prepare for unforeseen circumstances that can occur in the future, we must start planning today, putting money aside for when these unforeseen circumstances happen.

Roll's critique is a famous analysis of the validity of empirical tests of the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) by Richard Roll. It concerns methods to formally test the statement of the CAPM, the equation

A portfolio manager (PM) is a professional responsible for making investment decisions and carrying out investment activities on behalf of vested individuals or institutions. The investors invest their money into the PM's investment policy for future fund growth such as a retirement fund, endowment fund, education fund, or for other purposes. PMs work with a team of analysts and researchers, and are responsible for establishing an investment strategy, selecting appropriate investments, and allocating each investment properly towards an investment fund or asset management vehicle.

In finance, economics, and decision theory, hyperbolic absolute risk aversion (HARA) refers to a type of risk aversion that is particularly convenient to model mathematically and to obtain empirical predictions from. It refers specifically to a property of von Neumann–Morgenstern utility functions, which are typically functions of final wealth, and which describe a decision-maker's degree of satisfaction with the outcome for wealth. The final outcome for wealth is affected both by random variables and by decisions. Decision-makers are assumed to make their decisions so as to maximize the expected value of the utility function.

Returns-based style analysis is a statistical technique used in finance to deconstruct the returns of investment strategies using a variety of explanatory variables. The model results in a strategy's exposures to asset classes or other factors, interpreted as a measure of a fund or portfolio manager's style. While the model is most frequently used to show an equity mutual fund’s style with reference to common style axes, recent applications have extended the model’s utility to model more complex strategies, such as those employed by hedge funds. Returns based strategies that use factors such as momentum signals have been popular to the extent that industry analysts incorporate their use in their Buy/Sell recommendations.

Intertemporal portfolio choice is the process of allocating one's investable wealth to various assets, especially financial assets, repeatedly over time, in such a way as to optimize some criterion. The set of asset proportions at any time defines a portfolio. Since the returns on almost all assets are not fully predictable, the criterion has to take financial risk into account. Typically the criterion is the expected value of some concave function of the value of the portfolio after a certain number of time periods—that is, the expected utility of final wealth. Alternatively, it may be a function of the various levels of goods and services consumption that are attained by withdrawing some funds from the portfolio after each time period.

Nontraded assets are assets that are not traded on the market. Human capital is the most important nontraded assets. Other important nontraded asset classes are private businesses, claims to government transfer payments and claims on trust income.

References

  1. Consumption-based Capital Asset Pricing Model Archived 2019-04-10 at the Wayback Machine , macroeconomicanalysis.com
  2. Lucas, Robert E. (November 1978). "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy". Econometrica. 46 (6): 1429–1445. doi:10.2307/1913837. ISSN   0012-9682. JSTOR   1913837.
  3. Cochrane, John H. (2009). Asset Pricing : (Revised Edition). Princeton University Press. ISBN   9781400829132. OCLC   1038790818.
  4. Romer, David. Advanced Macroeconomics, ch. 7.