Corporate foresight

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Corporate foresight has been conceptualised by strategic foresight practitioners and academics working and/or studying corporations as a set of practices, a set of capabilities and an ability of a firm. It enables firms to detect discontinuous change early, interpret its consequences for the firm, and inform future courses of action to ensure the long-term survival and success of the company. [1] [2]

Contents

Motivation

To overcome three major challenges

There are three major challenges that make it difficult for organizations to respond to external change: [1]

Need

In addition to the need to overcome the barriers to future orientation a need to build corporate foresight abilities might also come from:

To operationalize the need for "peripheral vision", a concept closely linked to corporate foresight George S. Day and Paul J. H. Schoemaker developed a questionnaire with 24 questions. [7]

Implementation

The five practice dimensions

Based on case study research in 20 multinational companies, René Rohrbeck proposes a "Maturity Model for the Future Orientation of a Firm". Its five dimensions are:

The model is operationalised through 20 elements which have four maturity levels each. These maturity levels are defined and described qualitatively, i.e. by short descriptions that are either true or not true for a given organization. [1]

The three process steps

Organisations need to build foresight through three core process steps, which build on specific practices: [8] [9]

Corporate foresight can be expected to be a determinant of the quality of strategic conversation. [14] [15] It will also, in line with digitalisation of other organisational processes, be driven by online platforms that allow broadening the scope of the people who can get involved in defining new courses of action. [16]

Innovation management

Through an empirical investigation Rohrbeck identified three roles that corporate foresight can play to enhance the innovation management of a firm: [17]

The study also showed that only a small number of firms have implemented the third role. In the majority of firms the aims of an innovation development project that have been defined are not challenged after the initial decision has been taken. This carries the risk that changing environmental conditions threaten the success of the innovation in development. [17]

Additionally, von der Gracht and Vennemann have developed a portfolio-approach, the so-called ‘Future-Fitness-Portfolio’, which enables companies to qualitatively compare amongst others and identify organizational improvement potential. The authors base their framework on both, corporate foresight and innovation management. [19]

External search, understood as all organisational activities that involve the creation and recombination of knowledge from a wide range of external sources outside the boundaries of the firm, has recently been suggested as one of the key research frontiers for corporate foresight. [20] Corporate foresight utilising external search for knowledge entails the usage of novel methods to monitor external development. Among these novel methods, Social Media Analytics for external search for knowledge and open foresight that enable firms to tune in to weak signals and scan the periphery has been shown to hold particular potential. [21]

Benefits

Firms that have applied corporate foresight have received a number of benefits: [22] [23]

On a higher level it has been documented that firms will be able to [24]

More recently a longitudinal study, that tracked 83 companies over a period of 7 years, has found that firms that have the right maturity level of corporate foresight practices (high future preparedness) can expect an on average 33% higher profitability and a 200% higher market capitalisation growth, when compared to the average. [8]

Case studies

In recent years corporate foresight has become more professional and widespread. [25] [26] Documented examples of organizations applying corporate foresight practices include:

Such organizations typically use corporate foresight to support strategic management, identify new business fields [42] [43] and increase their innovation capacity. [17]

See also

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References

  1. 1 2 3 Rohrbeck, Rene (2010) Corporate Foresight: Towards a Maturity Model for the Future Orientation of a Firm, Springer Series: Contributions to Management Science, Heidelberg and New York, ISBN   978-3-7908-2625-8
  2. ↑ Rohrbeck, René; Battistella, Cinzia; Huizingh, Eelko (2015). "Corporate foresight: An emerging field with a rich tradition" (PDF). Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 101: 1–9. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2015.11.002.
  3. ↑ De Geus, Arie (1997) The living company, Harvard Business School Press, Boston, Mass, ISBN   978-1-57851-820-3
  4. ↑ Andriopoulos, C., & Lewis, M. W. 2009. Exploitation-Exploration Tensions and Organizational Ambidexterity: Managing Paradoxes of Innovation. Organization Science, 20(4): 696-717.
  5. ↑ O'Reilly, C. A., Harreld, J. B., & Tushman, M. L. 2009. Organizational Ambidexterity: IBM and Emerging Business Opportunities. California Management Review, 51: 75-99.
  6. ↑ "Strategy Under Uncertainty". Harvard Business Review. 1997-11-01. Retrieved 2018-01-12.
  7. ↑ Day, G. S., & Schoemaker, P. J. H. 2005. Scanning the periphery. Harvard Business Review, 83(11): 135-148.
  8. 1 2 Rohrbeck, René; Kum, Menes Etingue (2018). "Corporate foresight and its impact on firm performance: A longitudinal analysis". Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 129: 105–116. doi: 10.1016/j.techfore.2017.12.013 .
  9. ↑ Højland, Jakob; Rohrbeck, René (2017-06-06). "The role of corporate foresight in exploring new markets – evidence from 3 case studies in the BOP markets" (PDF). Technology Analysis & Strategic Management. 30 (6): 734–746. doi: 10.1080/09537325.2017.1337887 . ISSN   0953-7325.
  10. ↑ Duin, Patrick A. van der; Hartigh, Erik den (2009-04-01). "Keeping the balance: exploring the link of futures research with innovation and strategy processes". Technology Analysis & Strategic Management. 21 (3): 333–351. doi:10.1080/09537320902750673. ISSN   0953-7325. S2CID   219639725.
  11. ↑ Gavetti, Giovanni; Menon, Anoop (2016-09-01). "Evolution Cum Agency: Toward a Model of Strategic Foresight". Strategy Science. 1 (3): 207–233. doi: 10.1287/stsc.2016.0018 . ISSN   2333-2050.
  12. ↑ Rhisiart, Martin; Miller, Riel; Brooks, Simon (2015). "Learning to use the future: developing foresight capabilities through scenario processes". Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 101: 124–133. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2014.10.015.
  13. ↑ Bezold, Clem (2010). "Lessons from using scenarios for strategic foresight". Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 77 (9): 1513–1518. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2010.06.012.
  14. ↑ Van der Heijden, Kees (2005). Scenarios: the art of strategic conversation (2nd ed.). Chichester, West Sussex: John Wiley & Sons. ISBN   9780470023686. OCLC   56191771.
  15. ↑ Ramírez, Rafael; Wilkinson, Angela (2016-03-24). Strategic reframing: the Oxford scenario planning approach (First ed.). Oxford, UK. ISBN   9780198745693. OCLC   951230165.{{cite book}}: CS1 maint: location missing publisher (link)
  16. 1 2 Rohrbeck, René; Thom, Nico; Arnold, Heinrich (2015). "IT tools for foresight: The integrated insight and response system of Deutsche Telekom Innovation Laboratories". Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 97: 115–126. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2013.09.015. S2CID   154235179.
  17. 1 2 3 Rohrbeck, René; Gemünden, Hans Georg (2011). "Corporate foresight: Its three roles in enhancing the innovation capacity of a firm". Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 78 (2): 231–243. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2010.06.019. S2CID   153581035.
  18. ↑ Rohrbeck, René (2010-03-01). "Harnessing a network of experts for competitive advantage: technology scouting in the ICT industry". R&D Management. 40 (2): 169–180. doi:10.1111/j.1467-9310.2010.00601.x. ISSN   1467-9310. S2CID   154201060.
  19. ↑ von der Gracht, Heiko; Vennemann, Robert; Darkow, Inga-Lena (2010). "Corporate foresight and innovation management: A portfolio-approach in evaluating organizational development". Futures - the Journal of Policy Planning and Futures Studies. 42 (4): 380–393. doi:10.1016/j.futures.2009.11.023.
  20. ↑ Ehls, Daniel; Polier, Sara; Herstatt, Cornelius (2020). "Reviewing the Field of External Knowledge Search for Innovation: Theoretical Underpinnings and Future (Re-)search Directions". Journal of Product Innovation Management. 37 (5): 405–430. doi:10.1111/jpim.12549. hdl: 11420/7702 . ISSN   1540-5885. S2CID   225378237.
  21. ↑ Laurell, Christofer; Sandstrom, Christian (2021). "Social Media Analytics as an Enabler for External Search and Open Foresight—The Case of Tesla's Autopilot and Regulatory Scrutiny of Autonomous Driving". IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management. 69 (2): 564–571. doi: 10.1109/TEM.2021.3072677 . ISSN   0018-9391.
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  24. ↑ Rohrbeck, René; Schwarz, Jan Oliver (2013). "The value contribution of strategic foresight: Insights from an empirical study of large European companies". Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 80 (8): 1593–1606. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2013.01.004. S2CID   154598925.
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  26. ↑ Oliver Schwarz, Jan (2008). "Assessing the future of futures studies in management". Futures. 40 (3): 237–246. doi:10.1016/j.futures.2007.08.018.
  27. ↑ Hofmann, Rupert (2015). "Visionary competence for long-term development of brands, products, and services: The trend receiver concept and its first applications at Audi". Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 101: 83–98. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2014.06.005.
  28. ↑ Ruff, Frank (2015). "The advanced role of corporate foresight in innovation and strategic management — Reflections on practical experiences from the automotive industry". Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 101: 37–48. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2014.07.013.
  29. ↑ Darkow, Inga-Lena (2015). "The involvement of middle management in strategy development —Development and implementation of a foresight-based approach". Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 101: 10–24. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2013.12.002.
  30. ↑ Farrington, Ted; Henson, Keith; Crews, Christian (2012-03-01). "Research Foresights: The Use of Strategic Foresight Methods for Ideation and Portfolio Management". Research-Technology Management. 55 (2): 26–33. doi:10.5437/08956308X5502023. ISSN   0895-6308. S2CID   155162795.
  31. ↑ Knab, Sebastian; Rohrbeck, René (2009-11-29). "Strategic Foresight at General Electric: About the Ability to Mobilize all Employees to Manage Outbreaks in the Business Environment to Succeed (German: Strategische Frühaufklärung bei General Electric: Von der Fähigkeit alle Mitarbeiter zu Mobilisieren um Umbrüche im Unternehmensumfeld erfolgreich zu managen)". Rochester, NY. SSRN   1515343.{{cite journal}}: Cite journal requires |journal= (help)
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  33. ↑ Rollwagen, Ingo; Hofmann, Jan; Schneider, Stefan (2008-05-01). "Improving the business impact of foresight". Technology Analysis & Strategic Management. 20 (3): 337–349. doi:10.1080/09537320802000070. ISSN   0953-7325. S2CID   12834353.
  34. ↑ Boe-Lillegraven, Siri; Monterde, Stephan (2015). "Exploring the cognitive value of technology foresight: The case of the Cisco Technology Radar". Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 101: 62–82. doi: 10.1016/j.techfore.2014.07.014 .
  35. ↑ "CORPORATE FORESIGHT AT CISCO: INTRODUCTION OF THE TECHNOLOGY RADAR". thecasecentre.org. Retrieved 2018-01-13.
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  37. ↑ Heger, Tobias; Boman, Magnus (2015). "Networked foresight—The case of EIT ICT Labs". Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 101: 147–164. doi: 10.1016/j.techfore.2014.02.002 .
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  41. ↑ Braun, Karl; von der Gracht, Heiko (October 2018). "Assessing future readiness: how a private audit contributes to addressing foresight" (PDF). European Court of Auditors, ECA Journal. No. 10, October 2018: 55–58.
  42. ↑ Rohrbeck, R., S. Mahdjour, S. Knab, T. Frese (2009) Benchmarking Report - Strategic Foresight in Multinational Companies Report of the European Corporate Foresight Group: Berlin, Germany
  43. ↑ Heger, Tobias; Rohrbeck, René (2012). "Strategic foresight for collaborative exploration of new business fields". Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 79 (5): 819–831. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2011.11.003. S2CID   155015492.

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