The Ex-Cubs Factor (or Ex-Cub Factor) is a seemingly spurious correlation that was seen as essentially a corollary to the Curse of the Billy Goat. Widely published in the 1990s, the hypothesis asserted that since the appearance by the Chicago Cubs in the 1945 World Series, any baseball team headed into the World Series with three or more former Cubs on its roster has "a critical mass of Cubness" and a strong likelihood of failure. [1]
It is utterly impossible for a team with three or more ex-Cubs to win the World Series
-Ron Berler's ex-Cubs Factor hypothesis
The theory was developed in October 15, 1981 by Ron Berler, a freelance journalist and Cubs fan. Berler posited in an article that "it is utterly impossible for a team with three or more ex-Cubs to win the series." [1] Berler based this on a pattern that he observed in the post-1945 era; 1945 being the last time the Chicago Cubs made it to a World Series until 2016.
Berler cited many examples of teams with three or more ex-Cubs on their teams that reached the World Series and lost: including the 1958 Milwaukee Braves, the 1966 Los Angeles Dodgers, and the 1978 Los Angeles Dodgers. The 1978 Dodgers, according to Berler, had lost the 1977 World Series with three ex-Cubs on their roster and seemed to be doing well the next season when they traded one of those ex-Cubs (Mike Garman) away and began playing excellently. However, four weeks later, the Dodgers traded for ex-Cub Bill North and, in the words of Berler, the "team suffered an immediate tailspin and barely beat Cincinnati to the pennant" (North was actually traded to the Dodgers first on May 17, and Garman was traded away three days later). [2] [1] The 1978 Dodgers lost the World Series to the Yankees leading to Berler's hypothesis of three ex-Cubs making it impossible to win a championship. In addition, the 1980 Kansas City Royals lost the World Series as well with 3 ex-Cubs.
In the original article, Berler predicted that based on this pattern the 1981 New York Yankees would not win the World Series because they had five ex-Cubs on their roster (Oscar Gamble, Bobby Murcer, Dave LaRoche, Rick Reuschel, and Barry Foote), this prediction went against the odds which heavily favored the Yankees at the time. [3] His prediction about the 1981 World Series based on this hypothesis was proved correct with the Yankees losing to the Dodgers, four games to two.
Berler relates the relationship to the inherent "cubness" that ex-Cubs take to their future teams. In the original article, he wrote that "the ballclub possesses eerie, bewitching powers over its players" and that "'Cubness'...is synonymous with the rankest sort of abject failure, and is a condition chronic among all Cubs, past and present." [1]
Mike Royko, who popularized the term in his columns in Chicago, wrote that cubness was a "virus" where "Three or more ex-Cubs could infect an entire team with the will to lose, no matter how skillful that team might appear." [4] Berler adopted a similar explanation in later articulations, writing that the virus "attacks all who've played for the Cubs, even if only for a single day. There is no inoculation, no cure. When traded to another team, ex-Cubs become carriers of this debilitating disease—the ticks of baseball. Any World Series team infested with three or more of them turns addled and confused, losing all ability to win." [5]
A team with no ex-Cubs probably has the edge on a team that has even one in the World Series
-Mike Royko's Modified ex-Cubs Factor hypothesis
Mike Royko developed an additional hypothesis contending that "A team with no ex-Cubs probably has the edge on a team that has even one." The key evidence provided for this was the 1986 World Series which had the New York Mets (with no ex-Cubs) defeat the Boston Red Sox (with a dramatic error by ex-Cub Bill Buckner). [6] This hypothesis was largely discredited in the 2003 World Series with the Florida Marlins (who had ex-Cub Lenny Harris) defeating the New York Yankees (who had no ex-Cubs), though Harris did not play in the World Series. [5]
| World Series where the Ex-Cubs Factor has been cited (Note: Negative cases in blue) | ||
|---|---|---|
| Year | Winning Team (# of ex-Cubs) | Losing Team (# of ex-Cubs) |
| 1981 | Los Angeles Dodgers (1) | New York Yankees (5) |
| 1984 | Detroit Tigers (1) | San Diego Padres (3) |
| 1990 | Cincinnati Reds (1) | Oakland Athletics (3) |
| 2001 | Arizona Diamondbacks (4) | New York Yankees (2) |
| 2002 | Los Angeles Angels (1) | San Francisco Giants (3) |
| 2004 | Boston Red Sox (2) | St. Louis Cardinals (3) |
| 2008 | Philadelphia Phillies (3) | Tampa Bay Rays (1) |
| 2009 | New York Yankees (2) | Philadelphia Phillies (3) |
| 2012 | San Francisco Giants (3) | Detroit Tigers (0) |
| 2019 | Washington Nationals (1) | Houston Astros (3) |
| 2022 | Houston Astros (1) | Philadelphia Phillies (3) |
Since 1945, of the 24 teams to reach the World Series with three or more Cubs players, only 4 have won the World Series (the 1960 Pirates, the 2001 Diamondbacks, the 2008 Phillies, and the 2012 Giants). [7] Since its articulation in 1981, the Ex-Cubs Factor has been used to predict and explain post-season and World Series defeats for many different baseball teams.
During the 1980s, the ex-Cubs factor was used to explain a number of losses by teams. It was used, in a letter to the editor, as a reason for the loss by the San Diego Padres (who ironically beat the Cubs to get to the Series) in the 1984 World Series (with three ex-Cubs) and by the collapse of the 1985 Toronto Blue Jays who had added ex-Cub Cliff Johnson on August 28 and then blew a 3-1 lead over the Royals in the 1985 American League Championship Series. [8]
While not falling under the curse in the traditional sense, Bill Buckner's infamous gaffe in Game 6 of the 1986 World Series can be interpreted to fit the Ex-Cubs Factor. Buckner, a former Cub, booted a ground ball hit by New York Mets batter Mookie Wilson, allowing Ray Knight to come around and score the winning run. The Mets would go on to win the series in seven games, and Buckner would never win the World Series in his career. Upon video analysis, Buckner was shown to be wearing a Cubs batting glove under his mitt when he made the error.
The theory became more prominent in 1990 when it was popularized by syndicated Chicago Tribune columnist Mike Royko and continued predictions by Ron Berler. On October 16, 1990, Berler again asserted the ex-Cubs factor as the reason that the favored Oakland Athletics (with ex-Cubs Scott Sanderson, Dennis Eckersley, and Ron Hassey) would lose in the 1990 World Series (which they did by getting swept by the Cincinnati Reds). [9] It was again cited by Berler as a reason for the defeat of the league-leading 1991 Pittsburgh Pirates in the 1991 National League Championship Series to the Atlanta Braves. [10] Mike Royko used the ex-Cubs factor to predict the playoff collapse of the 104-win 1993 Atlanta Braves (which did occur in the 1993 National League Championship Series). [4]
The ex-Cubs factor hypothesis was used to predict the San Francisco Giants (with three ex-Cubs Shawon Dunston, Benito Santiago and Tim Worrell) loss to the Anaheim Angels in the 2002 World Series. [11]
The ex-Cubs factor hypothesis has also been used to explain the results of the 2004 American League Championship Series (ALCS) and the 2004 World Series, both won by the Boston Red Sox. In the 2004 ALCS, the Yankees (with six ex-Cubs) lost a 3-0 game lead to the Boston Red Sox, the first time in Major League Baseball history. The Red Sox (with only two ex-Cubs) then went on to defeat the St. Louis Cardinals (with three ex-Cubs) in the World Series. [12] [13] The 2009 World Series resulted in a win by the New York Yankees (with two ex-Cubs) over the Philadelphia Phillies (with three ex-Cubs). [14]
Berler's study of the ex-Cub factor since 1945 revealed only one exception since 1945: the 1960 Pittsburgh Pirates, who won the World Series with three ex-Cubs on their roster. Berler contends that one of those ex-Cubs, Don Hoak, spent so little time in Chicago (121 games in one season), that he did not fully develop what Berler called his "Cubness". Berler quoted pitcher Jim Brosnan as saying that "Hoak is quite possibly the only man who ever conquered his Cubness". [1]
The Society for American Baseball Research researched the rosters of each World Series roster from 1946 to 2013 through records and noted each Series that had at least one former Cub while noting the distinct conjectures between Berler and Royko's theories. Perhaps predictably, the Berler rate was found to be more effective (17/22 as compared to 32/56), although there are a few evident cases against each conjecture. [15]
Most notably, the 1973 Oakland A's had three ex-Cubs in Pat Bourque, Ken Holtzman, and Bill North all on the roster during their run to the World Series, although North did not play in the Series due to injury. This also applies to the 1979 Pittsburgh Pirates, who won the World Series with three former Cub players in Matt Alexander, Bill Madlock, and Dave Roberts, although Roberts didn't play in the Series itself. [16]
The 2001 Arizona Diamondbacks similarly had four ex-Cubs on their roster (Miguel Batista, Mark Grace, Mike Morgan, and Luis Gonzalez) but defeated the New York Yankees in the 2001 World Series. Mark Grace declared in an post-game interview that "We beat the ex-Cub Factor!". [7] The sympathy many fans felt for New York City following the September 11 attacks, topped off by the four ex-Cubs on the Arizona roster, seemed to stack up against the Diamondbacks. But Arizona won Game 6 in a lopsided score, and then won Game 7 in a come-from-behind finish, scoring a pair of runs in the ninth inning to win the Series. In fact, two of the four former Cubs played prominent roles in that ninth inning, Mark Grace getting a lead off single and Luis Gonzalez driving in the winning run with a single.
The 1960 Pittsburgh Pirates and the 2001 Arizona Diamondbacks (both with victories over the New York Yankees) are among the few instances of teams ever having won the World Series in Game 7 walk-off victories. [7] The former was a home run hit by Bill Mazeroski to end the 1960 World Series.
The 2008 Philadelphia Phillies team was declared prior to the post-season by Berler as "doomed this year by the Ex-Cub Factor" (with three ex-Cubs Scott Eyre, Jamie Moyer, and Matt Stairs on their roster). [5] However, the Phillies defeated the Los Angeles Dodgers (a team also with three ex-Cubs) in the National League Championship Series and the Tampa Bay Rays (one ex-Cub) in the 2008 World Series.
The Ex-Cubs Factor hypothesis has been applied to other professional baseball teams in both positive and negative references. For example, sports writer Jeff Blair has argued there exists an "ex-Expos factor" where number of former Montreal Expos players correlates with post-season success, owing to several careers starting in Montreal that ranged from Randy Johnson (the winning pitcher of the final game in 2001) to Pedro Martínez (part of the Red Sox team who made the epic comeback over the Yankees in 2004) to Gary Carter (was on the Mets team that won in 1986), each of which whom won a World Series after leaving the Expos. [17] Jim Caple for ESPN.com has similarly proposed an ex-Mariners factor (or XMF) which explores the excellent play by ex-Mariners for other teams in postseason baseball. [18]
Michael Royko Jr. was an American newspaper columnist from Chicago. Over his 30-year career, he wrote over 7,500 daily columns for the Chicago Daily News, the Chicago Sun-Times, and the Chicago Tribune. A humorist who focused on life in Chicago, he was the winner of the 1972 Pulitzer Prize for commentary.
William Joseph Buckner was an American first baseman and left fielder in Major League Baseball (MLB) who played for five teams from 1969 through 1990, most notably the Chicago Cubs, Los Angeles Dodgers and Boston Red Sox. Beginning his career as an outfielder with the Dodgers, Buckner helped the team to the 1974 pennant with a .314 batting average, but a serious ankle injury the next year led to his trade to the Cubs before the 1977 season. The Cubs moved him to first base, and he won the National League (NL) batting title with a .324 mark in 1980. He was named to the All-Star team the following year as he led the major leagues in doubles. After setting a major league record for first basemen with 159 assists in 1982, Buckner surpassed that total with 161 in 1983 while again leading the NL in doubles. Feuds with team management over a loss of playing time resulted in his being traded to the Red Sox in the middle of the 1984 season.
The Curse of the Billy Goat was a sports curse that was supposedly placed on the Chicago Cubs Major League Baseball (MLB) franchise in 1945, by Billy Goat Tavern owner William Sianis. The curse lasted 71 years, from 1945 to 2016. During Game 4 of the 1945 World Series at Wrigley Field, Sianis's pet goat, named Murphy, was bothering other fans, and so the pair were asked to leave the stadium. Outraged, Sianis allegedly declared, "Them Cubs, they ain't gonna win no more", which had been interpreted to mean that the Cubs would never win another National League (NL) pennant, at least for the remainder of Sianis's life.
The Cubs–White Sox rivalry refers to the Major League Baseball (MLB) geographical rivalry between the Chicago Cubs and Chicago White Sox. The Cubs are a member club of MLB's National League (NL) Central division, and play their home games at Wrigley Field, located on Chicago's North Side. The White Sox are a member club of MLB's American League (AL) Central division, and play their home games at Guaranteed Rate Field, located on Chicago's South Side.
The following are the baseball events of the year 2003 throughout the world.
The following are the baseball events of the year 2001 throughout the world.
The 2000 Major League Baseball season ended with the New York Yankees defeating the New York Mets in five games, for their third consecutive World Series title. The 2000 World Series was known as the Subway Series because both fans and the two teams could take the subway to and from every game of the series.
The 1997 Major League Baseball season was the inaugural season for Interleague play, as well as the final season in the American League for the Milwaukee Brewers before moving to the NL the following season. The California Angels changed their name to the Anaheim Angels. The Florida Marlins ended the season as the World Champions defeating the Cleveland Indians in a seven-game World Series, four games to three.
The 1998 Major League Baseball season ended with the New York Yankees sweeping the San Diego Padres in the World Series, after they had won a then AL record 114 regular season games. The Yankees finished with 125 wins for the season, which remains the MLB record.
Michael Douglas Garman is an American former professional baseball player. A relief pitcher, he played for five different teams in Major League Baseball (MLB) between 1969 and 1978. He was a first-round draft selection of the Boston Red Sox in the 1967 MLB draft. Listed at 6 feet 3 inches (191 cm) and 215 pounds (98 kg), he threw and batted right-handed.
The 2008 Major League Baseball season began on March 25, 2008, in Tokyo, Japan with the 2007 World Series champion Boston Red Sox defeating the Oakland Athletics at the Tokyo Dome 6–5 in the first game of a two-game series, and ended on September 30 with the host Chicago White Sox defeating the Minnesota Twins in a one-game playoff to win the AL Central. The Civil Rights Game, an exhibition, in Memphis, Tennessee, took place March 29 when the New York Mets beat the Chicago White Sox, 3–2.
The 1979 Major League Baseball season. None of the post-season teams of 1977 or 1978 returned to this year's postseason. In a rematch of the 1971 World Series, the Pittsburgh Pirates defeated the Baltimore Orioles in seven games in the 1979 World Series.
The 1949 Major League Baseball season was contested from April 18 through October 15, 1949. Both the American League (AL) and National League (NL) had eight teams, with each team playing a 154-game schedule. The New York Yankees won the World Series over the Brooklyn Dodgers in five games. Ted Williams of the Boston Red Sox and Jackie Robinson of the Dodgers won the Most Valuable Player Award in the AL and NL, respectively.
In the 1978 Major League Baseball season, the New York Yankees defeated the Los Angeles Dodgers to win their second consecutive World Series, and 22nd overall, in a rematch of the prior season's Fall Classic. The Yankees overcame clubhouse turmoil, a mid-season managerial change, and a 14-game mid-July deficit in the American League East en route to the championship. All four teams that made the playoffs in 1977 returned for this postseason; none of the four returned to the postseason in 1979.
The 1963 Major League Baseball season was contested from April 8 to October 6, 1963. The American League and National League both featured ten teams, with each team playing a 162-game schedule.
The 1960 Major League Baseball season was played from April 12 to October 13, 1960. It was the final season contested by 16 clubs and the final season that a 154-game schedule was played in both the American League and the National League. The AL began using the 162-game schedule the following season, with the NL following suit in 1962.
The 1976 Major League Baseball season ended with the Cincinnati Reds winning their second consecutive World Series championship.
Throughout its history, Major League Baseball rivalries have occurred between many teams and cities. Rivalries have arisen for many different reasons, the primary ones including geographic proximity, familiarity with opponents, various incidents, and cultural, linguistic, or national pride.
The following are the baseball events of the year 2017 throughout the world.
Bill Buckner's 1986 World Series error was a baseball play that occurred in Game 6 of the 1986 World Series on October 25, 1986, at Shea Stadium in Queens, New York.
Reprint of article from October 5, 1993