False precision

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False precision (also called overprecision, fake precision, misplaced precision and spurious precision) occurs when numerical data are presented in a manner that implies better precision than is justified; since precision is a limit to accuracy (in the ISO definition of accuracy), this often leads to overconfidence in the accuracy, named precision bias. [1]

Contents

Overview

Madsen Pirie defines the term "false precision" in a more general way: when exact numbers are used for notions that cannot be expressed in exact terms. For example, "We know that 90% of the difficulty in writing is getting started." Often false precision is abused to produce an unwarranted confidence in the claim: "our mouthwash is twice as good as our competitor's". [2]

In science and engineering, convention dictates that unless a margin of error is explicitly stated, the number of significant figures used in the presentation of data should be limited to what is warranted by the precision of those data. For example, if an instrument can be read to tenths of a unit of measurement, results of calculations using data obtained from that instrument can only be confidently stated to the tenths place, regardless of what the raw calculation returns or whether other data used in the calculation are more accurate. Even outside these disciplines, there is a tendency to assume that all the non-zero digits of a number are meaningful; thus, providing excessive figures may lead the viewer to expect better precision than exists.

However, in contrast, it is good practice to retain more significant figures than this in the intermediate stages of a calculation, in order to avoid accumulated rounding errors.

False precision commonly arises when high-precision and low-precision data are combined, and in conversion of units.

Examples

False precision is the gist of numerous variations of a joke which can be summarized as follows: A tour guide at a museum says a dinosaur skeleton is 100,000,005 years old, because an expert told him that it was 100 million years old when he started working there 5 years ago.

If a car's speedometer indicates the vehicle is travelling at 60 mph and that is converted to km/h, it would equal 96.5606 km/h. The conversion from the whole number in one system to the precise result in another makes it seem like the measurement was very precise, when in fact it was not.

Measures that rely on statistical sampling, such as IQ tests, are often reported with false precision. [3]

See also

Related Research Articles

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Floating-point arithmetic</span> Computer approximation for real numbers

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Measurement</span> Process of assigning numbers to objects or events

Measurement is the quantification of attributes of an object or event, which can be used to compare with other objects or events. In other words, measurement is a process of determining how large or small a physical quantity is as compared to a basic reference quantity of the same kind. The scope and application of measurement are dependent on the context and discipline. In natural sciences and engineering, measurements do not apply to nominal properties of objects or events, which is consistent with the guidelines of the International vocabulary of metrology published by the International Bureau of Weights and Measures. However, in other fields such as statistics as well as the social and behavioural sciences, measurements can have multiple levels, which would include nominal, ordinal, interval and ratio scales.

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Multimeter</span> Electronic measuring instrument that combines several measurement functions in one unit

A multimeter is a measuring instrument that can measure multiple electrical properties. A typical multimeter can measure voltage, resistance, and current, in which case it is also known as a volt-ohm-milliammeter (VOM), as the unit is equipped with voltmeter, ammeter, and ohmmeter functionality, or volt-ohmmeter for short. Some feature the measurement of additional properties such as temperature and capacitance.

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Micrometer (device)</span> Tool for the precise measurement of a components length, width, and/or depth

A micrometer, sometimes known as a micrometer screw gauge, is a device incorporating a calibrated screw widely used for accurate measurement of components in mechanical engineering and machining as well as most mechanical trades, along with other metrological instruments such as dial, vernier, and digital calipers. Micrometers are usually, but not always, in the form of calipers. The spindle is a very accurately machined screw and the object to be measured is placed between the spindle and the anvil. The spindle is moved by turning the ratchet knob or thimble until the object to be measured is lightly touched by both the spindle and the anvil.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Surveying</span> Science of determining the positions of points and the distances and angles between them

Surveying or land surveying is the technique, profession, art, and science of determining the terrestrial two-dimensional or three-dimensional positions of points and the distances and angles between them. A land surveying professional is called a land surveyor. These points are usually on the surface of the Earth, and they are often used to establish maps and boundaries for ownership, locations, such as the designed positions of structural components for construction or the surface location of subsurface features, or other purposes required by government or civil law, such as property sales.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Uncertainty</span> Situations involving imperfect or unknown information

Uncertainty refers to epistemic situations involving imperfect or unknown information. It applies to predictions of future events, to physical measurements that are already made, or to the unknown. Uncertainty arises in partially observable or stochastic environments, as well as due to ignorance, indolence, or both. It arises in any number of fields, including insurance, philosophy, physics, statistics, economics, finance, medicine, psychology, sociology, engineering, metrology, meteorology, ecology and information science.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Rounding</span> Replacing a number with a simpler value

Rounding means replacing a number with an approximate value that has a shorter, simpler, or more explicit representation. For example, replacing $23.4476 with $23.45, the fraction 312/937 with 1/3, or the expression 2 with 1.414.

Significant figures of a number in positional notation are digits in the number that are reliable and necessary to indicate the quantity of something.

An approximation is anything that is intentionally similar but not exactly equal to something else.

In science, engineering, and other quantitative disciplines, order of approximation refers to formal or informal expressions for how accurate an approximation is.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Approximation error</span>

The approximation error in a data value is the discrepancy between an exact value and some approximation to it. This error can be expressed as an absolute error or as a relative error.

Significance arithmetic is a set of rules for approximating the propagation of uncertainty in scientific or statistical calculations. These rules can be used to find the appropriate number of significant figures to use to represent the result of a calculation. If a calculation is done without analysis of the uncertainty involved, a result that is written with too many significant figures can be taken to imply a higher precision than is known, and a result that is written with too few significant figures results in an avoidable loss of precision. Understanding these rules requires a good understanding of the concept of significant and insignificant figures.

A spectroradiometer is a light measurement tool that is able to measure both the wavelength and amplitude of the light emitted from a light source. Spectrometers discriminate the wavelength based on the position the light hits at the detector array allowing the full spectrum to be obtained with a single acquisition. Most spectrometers have a base measurement of counts which is the un-calibrated reading and is thus impacted by the sensitivity of the detector to each wavelength. By applying a calibration, the spectrometer is then able to provide measurements of spectral irradiance, spectral radiance and/or spectral flux. This data is also then used with built in or PC software and numerous algorithms to provide readings or Irradiance (W/cm2), Illuminance, Radiance (W/sr), Luminance (cd), Flux, Chromaticity, Color Temperature, Peak and Dominant Wavelength. Some more complex spectrometer software packages also allow calculation of PAR μmol/m2/s, Metamerism, and candela calculations based on distance and include features like 2- and 20-degree observer, baseline overlay comparisons, transmission and reflectance.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Indicator (distance amplifying instrument)</span> Distance amplifying instrument

In various contexts of science, technology, and manufacturing, an indicator is any of various instruments used to accurately measure small distances and angles, and amplify them to make them more obvious. The name comes from the concept of indicating to the user that which their naked eye cannot discern; such as the presence, or exact quantity, of some small distance.

The limit of detection is the lowest signal, or the lowest corresponding quantity to be determined from the signal, that can be observed with a sufficient degree of confidence or statistical significance. However, the exact threshold used to decide when a signal significantly emerges above the continuously fluctuating background noise remains arbitrary and is a matter of policy and often of debate among scientists, statisticians and regulators depending on the stakes in different fields.

Extended precision refers to floating-point number formats that provide greater precision than the basic floating-point formats. Extended precision formats support a basic format by minimizing roundoff and overflow errors in intermediate values of expressions on the base format. In contrast to extended precision, arbitrary-precision arithmetic refers to implementations of much larger numeric types using special software.

As with other spreadsheets, Microsoft Excel works only to limited accuracy because it retains only a certain number of figures to describe numbers. With some exceptions regarding erroneous values, infinities, and denormalized numbers, Excel calculates in double-precision floating-point format from the IEEE 754 specification. Although Excel allows display of up to 30 decimal places, its precision for any specific number is no more than 15 significant figures, and calculations may have an accuracy that is even less due to five issues: round off, truncation, and binary storage, accumulation of the deviations of the operands in calculations, and worst: cancellation at subtractions resp. 'Catastrophic cancellation' at subtraction of values with similar magnitude.

References

  1. "Overprecision". Fallacy files.
  2. Pirie, Madsen (2015). How to Win Every Argument: The Use and Abuse of Logic. Bloomsbury Publishing. pp. 78–80. ISBN   9781472526977 . Retrieved 22 October 2015.
  3. Huff, Darrell (7 December 2010). How to Lie with Statistics (2010 ed.). W. W. Norton & Company. p. 144. ISBN   9780393070873 . Retrieved 22 October 2015. Chapter 4. Much Ado about Practically Nothing