Financial forecast

Last updated

A financial forecast is an estimate of future financial outcomes for a company or project, usually applied in budgeting, capital budgeting and / or valuation. Depending on context, the term may also refer to listed company (quarterly) earnings guidance. For a country or economy, see Economic forecast.

Typically, using historical internal accounting and sales data, in addition to external industry data and economic indicators, a financial forecast will be the analyst's modeled prediction of company outcomes in financial terms over a given time period. For the components / steps of business modeling here, see Outline of finance § Financial modeling.

Arguably, the key aspect of preparing a financial forecast is predicting revenue; future costs, fixed and variable, as well as capital, can then be estimated as a function of sales via "common-sized analysis" - where relationships are derived from historical financial ratios and other accounting relationships. [1] At the same time, the resultant line items must talk to the business' operations:- in general, growth in revenue will require corresponding increases in working capital, fixed assets (see, here, owner earnings) and associated financing; and in the long term, profitability (and other financial ratios) should tend to the industry average; [2] see Valuation using discounted cash flows § Determine cash flow for each forecast period for more detailed discussion, and other considerations; also Cash flow forecasting.

There is an extensive literature on the accuracy of analyst forecasts of revenue, profit and share price developments of companies. In general, this literature shows that analysts do not produce better forecasts than simple forecasting models. [3] [4] (Additional to the above outline, for fundamental analysis, analysts often also use stock market information, such as the 52-week high of stock prices, to augment their analysis of stock prices. [5] )

Related Research Articles

The discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis, in financial analysis, is a method used to value a security, project, company, or asset, that incorporates the time value of money. Discounted cash flow analysis is widely used in investment finance, real estate development, corporate financial management, and patent valuation. Used in industry as early as the 1700s or 1800s, it was widely discussed in financial economics in the 1960s, and U.S. courts began employing the concept in the 1980s and 1990s.

Fundamental analysis, in accounting and finance, is the analysis of a business's financial statements ; health; competitors and markets. It also considers the overall state of the economy and factors including interest rates, production, earnings, employment, GDP, housing, manufacturing and management. There are two basic approaches that can be used: bottom up analysis and top down analysis. These terms are used to distinguish such analysis from other types of investment analysis, such as quantitative and technical.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Price–earnings ratio</span> Financial Metric

The price–earnings ratio, also known as P/E ratio, P/E, or PER, is the ratio of a company's share (stock) price to the company's earnings per share. The ratio is used for valuing companies and to find out whether they are overvalued or undervalued.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Valuation (finance)</span> Process of estimating what something is worth, used in the finance industry

In finance, valuation is the process of determining the value of a (potential) investment, asset, or security. Generally, there are three approaches taken, namely discounted cashflow valuation, relative valuation, and contingent claim valuation.

Stock valuation is the method of calculating theoretical values of companies and their stocks. The main use of these methods is to predict future market prices, or more generally, potential market prices, and thus to profit from price movement – stocks that are judged undervalued are bought, while stocks that are judged overvalued are sold, in the expectation that undervalued stocks will overall rise in value, while overvalued stocks will generally decrease in value. A target price is a price at which an analyst believes a stock to be fairly valued relative to its projected and historical earnings.

A financial analyst is a professional, undertaking financial analysis for external or internal clients as a core feature of the job. The role may specifically be titled securities analyst, research analyst, equity analyst, investment analyst, or ratings analyst. The job title is a broad one: in banking, and industry more generally, various other analyst-roles cover financial management and (credit) risk management, as opposed to focusing on investments and valuation; these are also discussed in this article.

John Burr Williams was an American economist, recognized as an important figure in the field of fundamental analysis, and for his analysis of stock prices as reflecting their "intrinsic value".

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Capital budgeting</span> How an organization allocates its cash and resources

Capital budgeting in corporate finance, corporate planning and accounting is an area of capital management that concerns the planning process used to determine whether an organization's long term capital investments such as new machinery, replacement of machinery, new plants, new products, and research development projects are worth the funding of cash through the firm's capitalization structures. It is the process of allocating resources for major capital, or investment, expenditures. An underlying goal, consistent with the overall approach in corporate finance, is to increase the value of the firm to the shareholders.

Financial modeling is the task of building an abstract representation of a real world financial situation. This is a mathematical model designed to represent the performance of a financial asset or portfolio of a business, project, or any other investment.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Fed model</span> Disputed equity valuation model

The "Fed model", or "Fed Stock Valuation Model" (FSVM), is a disputed theory of equity valuation that compares the stock market's forward earnings yield to the nominal yield on long-term government bonds, and that the stock market – as a whole – is fairly valued, when the one-year forward-looking I/B/E/S earnings yield equals the 10-year nominal Treasury yield; deviations suggest over-or-under valuation.

Valuation using discounted cash flows is a method of estimating the current value of a company based on projected future cash flows adjusted for the time value of money. The cash flows are made up of those within the “explicit” forecast period, together with a continuing or terminal value that represents the cash flow stream after the forecast period. In several contexts, DCF valuation is referred to as the "income approach".

In economics, valuation using multiples, or "relative valuation", is a process that consists of:

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Financial statement analysis</span>

Financial statement analysis is the process of reviewing and analyzing a company's financial statements to make better economic decisions to earn income in future. These statements include the income statement, balance sheet, statement of cash flows, notes to accounts and a statement of changes in equity. Financial statement analysis is a method or process involving specific techniques for evaluating risks, performance, valuation, financial health, and future prospects of an organization.

The following outline is provided as an overview of and topical guide to finance:

Quantitative behavioral finance is a new discipline that uses mathematical and statistical methodology to understand behavioral biases in conjunction with valuation.

In finance, the T-model is a formula that states the returns earned by holders of a company's stock in terms of accounting variables obtainable from its financial statements. The T-model connects fundamentals with investment return, allowing an analyst to make projections of financial performance and turn those projections into a required return that can be used in investment selection.

The price-to-book ratio, or P/B ratio, is a financial ratio used to compare a company's current market value to its book value. The calculation can be performed in two ways, but the result should be the same. In the first way, the company's market capitalization can be divided by the company's total book value from its balance sheet. The second way, using per-share values, is to divide the company's current share price by the book value per share. It is also known as the market-to-book ratio and the price-to-equity ratio, and its inverse is called the book-to-market ratio.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Financial ratio</span> Numerical value to determine the financial condition of a company

A financial ratio or accounting ratio states the relative magnitude of two selected numerical values taken from an enterprise's financial statements. Often used in accounting, there are many standard ratios used to try to evaluate the overall financial condition of a corporation or other organization. Financial ratios may be used by managers within a firm, by current and potential shareholders (owners) of a firm, and by a firm's creditors. Financial analysts use financial ratios to compare the strengths and weaknesses in various companies. If shares in a company are traded in a financial market, the market price of the shares is used in certain financial ratios.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Corporate finance</span> Framework for corporate funding, capital structure, and investments

Corporate finance is the area of finance that deals with the sources of funding, and the capital structure of corporations, the actions that managers take to increase the value of the firm to the shareholders, and the tools and analysis used to allocate financial resources. The primary goal of corporate finance is to maximize or increase shareholder value.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Outline of corporate finance</span> Overview of corporate finance and corporate finance-related topics

The following outline is provided as an overview of and topical guide to corporate finance:

References

  1. "Research • AIBD Unica". aibd.unica.it. Retrieved 2023-05-10.
  2. Darmawan, Ari. Hospitality-Management-Accounting.
  3. Hein Schreuder and Jan Klaassen (1984), Confidential Revenue and Profit Forecasts by Management and Financial Analysts: Evidence form The Netherlands, The Accoounting Review, vol. 59, no. 1, January 1984)
  4. Stotz, Andrew, An Empirical Study of Financial Analysts Earnings Forecast Accuracy (May 29, 2016). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=2943146 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2943146
  5. Low, R.K.Y.; Tan, E. (2016). "The Role of Analysts' Forecasts in the Momentum Effect" (PDF). International Review of Financial Analysis. 48: 67–84. doi:10.1016/j.irfa.2016.09.007.