Job growth by U.S. president, measured as cumulative percentage change from month after inauguration to end of term
Politicians and pundits frequently refer to the ability of the president of the United States to "create jobs" in the U.S. during his term in office.[1] The numbers are most often seen during the election season or in regard to a president's economic legacy. The numbers typically used and most frequently cited by economists are total nonfarm payroll employment numbers as collected by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on a monthly and annual basis. The BLS also provides numbers for private-sector non-farm employment and other subsets of the aggregate.
Among the presidents from Jimmy Carter to Donald Trump, Bill Clinton created the most jobs at 18.6 million, while Ronald Reagan had the largest cumulative percentage increase in jobs at 15.6%. This computation treats the base month as the December before the month of inauguration and last month as December of the final full year in office.[2] Using the month after inauguration as the base month as shown in the accompanying diagram, the top four presidents in terms of cumulative job creation percentage are Clinton (D), Reagan (R), Carter (D), and Obama (D).[3]
Methodology
The jobs numbers are reported as part of the "Monthly Employment Situation Report" from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The widely publicized "job creation" number is a net figure, computed as jobs created less jobs lost during the survey month. Estimates are generated via the "Establishment Survey", also known as the payroll survey or Current Employment Statistics (CES) program. The Establishment Survey as of May 2020 included "approximately 145,000 businesses and government agencies representing approximately 697,000 worksites." The Establishment Survey publishes jobs, hours, and earnings estimates at varying levels of detail (nation, state, metro area) and for different industries.[4]
The sample establishments are drawn from private non-farm businesses such as factories, offices, and stores, as well as federal, state, and local government entities. Employees on non-farm payrolls are those who received pay for any part of the reference pay period (which includes the 12th of the month), including persons on paid leave. Further, BLS explains that: "The CES employment series are estimates of nonfarm wage and salary jobs, not an estimate of employed persons; an individual with two jobs is counted twice by the payroll survey. The CES employment series excludes employees in agriculture, private households, and the self-employed." These monthly job counts are revised (sometimes by 20% or more) within 90 days to reflect additional data, seasonal adjustment models, and annual adjustments resulting from unemployment insurance filings. Figures are seasonally adjusted, which removes from the series the effects of normal variation from recurring events within a year, such as holidays and weather changes, and helps reveal underlying economic trends.[4]
Journalist Glenn Kessler of The Washington Post explained in 2020 that economists debate which month to use as the base for counting job creation, between either January of the first term (the month of inauguration) or February. Survey data is typically from around the twelfth of the month, so January numbers are counted before the new president takes office. For that reason, The Washington Post uses the February jobs level as the starting point. For example, for President Obama, the computation takes the 145.815 million jobs of February 2017 and subtracts the 133.312 million jobs of February 2009 to arrive at the 12.503 million figure. Four of the top five presidents in terms of total jobs added were Democrats. For these 13 presidents beginning with Truman, total job creation was 2.4 times faster under Democrats, 70.5 million for the seven Democratic presidents and 29.1 million for the six Republican presidents. The Democratic presidents were in office for a total of 429 months, with 164,000 jobs per month added on average, while the Republicans were in office for 475 months, with a 61,000 jobs added per month average. The table below summarizes the results for the past seven presidents, with data through January 2021 for President Trump:[5]
U.S. changes in employment for selected time periods
The exact usefulness of these numbers is debated. On the one hand, they include only nonfarm payroll employment, which excludes certain types of jobs, notably the self-employed. However, as a semi-balancing factor, they count one person with two jobs as two employed persons.
Additionally, for at least the first eight months of a president's term, he inherits a budget proposed and implemented by his predecessor (as well as an overall economy which may be in decline or recovery). The data in columns shown for September (in italic) correlate better with the federal fiscal year starting each October, showing the impact of a given president and resulting federal budget on the job count.
Moreover, according to the United States Constitution, the United States Congress is responsible for government spending and thus, regardless of presidential advocacy, bears constitutional responsibility for such things as spending and tax policy that have enormous effects upon the economy. Furthermore, it is debatable how much effect any president realistically could have on a system as large, diverse, and complex as the U.S. economy. Nevertheless, the nonfarm payrolls number is the one most frequently used in the media and by economists, largely because the alternative (household survey numbers) is thought to drastically overestimate employment.
Another factor to consider is population growth, which provides opportunities for the creation of jobs, rendering these figures less impressive, or in the case of the already subpar, clearly insufficient.
The Heritage Foundation has pointed to Alan Greenspan's general economic optimism in 2004 as support for household survey numbers over payroll numbers. However, the subsequent downturn, and Greenspan's admission of having been wrong, may have discredited that view.
According to a Harris Poll, despite persistent reports that inflation is falling and the unemployment rate is nearing a 50-year low, two-thirds of Americans (68%) are unhappy with the economy.[6]
Job creation lists
By four-year presidential term
Numbers listed from 1941 and onward are BLS data[7] of nonfarm jobs (in thousands), and are shown from the year beginning and ending each presidential term. The monthly statistics are quoted from January, as U.S. presidents take office at the end of that month.
The Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database contains the total nonfarm employment level. A graph with a simple download of data on jobs by month since the late 1930s is available here:
Reaganomics, or Reaganism, were the neoliberal economic policies promoted by U.S. President Ronald Reagan during the 1980s. These policies are characterized as supply-side economics, trickle-down economics, or "voodoo economics" by opponents, while Reagan and his advocates preferred to call it free-market economics.
Unemployment, according to the OECD, is people above a specified age not being in paid employment or self-employment but currently available for work during the reference period.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is a unit of the United States Department of Labor. It is the principal fact-finding agency for the U.S. government in the broad field of labor economics and statistics and serves as a principal agency of the U.S. Federal Statistical System. The BLS collects, processes, analyzes, and disseminates essential statistical data to the American public, the U.S. Congress, other Federal agencies, State and local governments, business, and labor representatives. The BLS also serves as a statistical resource to the United States Department of Labor, and conducts research measuring the income levels families need to maintain a satisfactory quality of life.
An economic indicator is a statistic about an economic activity. Economic indicators allow analysis of economic performance and predictions of future performance. One application of economic indicators is the study of business cycles. Economic indicators include various indices, earnings reports, and economic summaries: for example, the unemployment rate, quits rate, housing starts, consumer price index, Inverted yield curve, consumer leverage ratio, industrial production, bankruptcies, gross domestic product, broadband internet penetration, retail sales, price index, and changes in credit conditions.
In economics, a discouraged worker is a person of legal employment age who is not actively seeking employment or who has not found employment after long-term unemployment, but who would prefer to be working. This is usually because an individual has given up looking, hence the term "discouraged".
The Current Population Survey (CPS) is a monthly survey of about 60,000 U.S. households conducted by the United States Census Bureau for the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The BLS uses the data to publish reports early each month called the Employment Situation. This report provides estimates of the unemployment rate and the numbers of employed and unemployed people in the United States based on the CPS. A readable Employment Situation Summary is provided monthly. Annual estimates include employment and unemployment in large metropolitan areas. Researchers can use some CPS microdata to investigate these or other topics.
A jobless recovery or jobless growth is an economic phenomenon in which a macroeconomy experiences growth while maintaining or decreasing its level of employment. The term was coined by the economist Nick Perna in the early 1990s.
Nonfarm payroll employment is a compiled name for goods, construction and manufacturing companies in the US. Approximately 80% of the workforce is accounted for nonfarm payrolls and it excludes farm workers, private household employees, actively serving military or non-profit organization employees. Approximately 131,000 businesses and government agencies, which amounts to around 670,000 worksites, are surveyed on a monthly basis.
The employment cost index (ECI) is a quarterly economic series detailing the changes in the costs of labor for businesses in the United States economy. The ECI is prepared by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), in the U.S. Department of Labor.
The United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a family of various consumer price indices published monthly by the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The most commonly used indices are the CPI-U and the CPI-W, though many alternative versions exist for different uses. For example, the CPI-U is the most popularly cited measure of consumer inflation in the United States, while the CPI-W is used to index Social Security benefit payments.
The International Labor Comparisons Program (ILC) of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) adjusts economic statistics to a common conceptual framework in order to make data comparable across countries. Its data can be used to evaluate the economic performance of one country relative to that of other countries and to assess international competitiveness.
Unemployment in the United States discusses the causes and measures of U.S. unemployment and strategies for reducing it. Job creation and unemployment are affected by factors such as economic conditions, global competition, education, automation, and demographics. These factors can affect the number of workers, the duration of unemployment, and wage levels.
The United States entered recession in January 1980 and returned to growth six months later in July 1980. Although recovery took hold, the unemployment rate remained unchanged and even grew through the start of a second recession in July 1981. The downturn ended 16 months later, in November 1982. The economy entered a strong recovery and experienced a lengthy expansion through 1990.
Job creation and unemployment are affected by factors such as aggregate demand, global competition, education, automation, and demographics. These factors can affect the number of workers, the duration of unemployment, and wage rates.
Since World War II, the United States economy has performed significantly better on average under the administration of Democratic presidents than Republican presidents. The reasons for this are debated, and the observation applies to economic variables including job creation, GDP growth, stock market returns, personal income growth and corporate profits. The unemployment rate has risen on average under Republican presidents, while it has fallen on average under Democratic presidents. Budget deficits relative to the size of the economy were lower on average for Democratic presidents. Ten of the eleven U.S. recessions between 1953 and 2020 began under Republican presidents.
The JOLTS report or Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey is a report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics measuring employment, layoffs, job openings, and quits in the United States economy. The report is released monthly and usually a month after the jobs report for the same reference period. Job separations are broken down into three categories quits or voluntary resignations, layoffs or discharges, and other separations which include deaths and retirements. Job openings and the quits rate were at an all time high in 2021 and 2022 in what came to be called the Great Resignation.
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