July 2021 Bulgarian parliamentary election

Last updated

July 2021 Bulgarian parliamentary election
Flag of Bulgaria.svg
←  April 2021 11 July 2021 November 2021  →
All 240 seats in the National Assembly
121 seats needed for a majority
Turnout40.39% (Decrease2.svg 8.71pp)
PartyLeader%Seats+/–
ITN Slavi Trifonov 23.7865+14
GERB–SDS Boyko Borisov 23.2163−12
BSPzB Korneliya Ninova 13.2236−7
DB A. Atanasov & H. Ivanov 12.4834+7
DPS Mustafa Karadayi 10.5729−1
IBG-NI Maya Manolova 4.9513−1
This lists parties that won seats. See the complete results below.
July 2021 Bulgarian parliamentary election - Vote Strength.svg
July 2021 Bulgarian parliamentary election - Seat distribution.svg
Prime Minister beforePrime Minister after
Stefan Yanev.jpg Stefan Yanev (caretaker)
Independent 		Stefan Yanev (caretaker)
Independent 		Stefan Yanev.jpg

Snap parliamentary elections were held in Bulgaria on 11 July 2021 after no party was able or willing to form a government following the April 2021 elections. [1] The populist party There Is Such a People (ITN), led by musician and television host Slavi Trifonov, narrowly won the most seats over a coalition of the conservative GERB and Union of Democratic Forces parties. Four other parties (the leftist BSP for Bulgaria, the liberal alliance Democratic Bulgaria, the centrist Turkish minority party Movement for Rights and Freedoms, and the anti-corruption Stand Up! Mafia, Get Out!) won seats in the 240-member Parliament as well.

Contents

ITN's success was propelled primarily by young voters. The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) assessed the election as being "competitive" and with "fundamental freedoms being generally respected." [2] On 6 September, BSP handed back the last mandate of forming a government, meaning the parliament would be dissolved and a third parliamentary election would officially take place in 2021. [3] President Radev declared on 11 September that there would be '2-in-1' elections on November 14 for the first time in Bulgarian history, where voters will be able to vote on the president and the parliament. This decision was taken 'to save treasury costs and voters time'. [4]

Background

The previous election in April saw the ruling GERB party win 75 seats, There Is Such A People (ITN) win 51 seats, BSP for Bulgaria win 43 seats, the Movement for Rights and Freedoms win 30 seats, Democratic Bulgaria win 27 seats and Stand Up! Mafia, Get Out! win 14 seats. After Boyko Borisov of GERB and Slavi Trifonov of There Is Such A People (ITN) were unable to form governments, the BSP stated that they would refuse the mandate to form the government, as the three anti-corruption parties (ITN, Democratic Bulgaria and ISMV) were unwilling to work with them. [1]

Electoral system

The 240 members of the National Assembly are elected by open list proportional representation from 31 multi-member constituencies ranging in size from 4 to 16 seats. The electoral threshold is 4% for parties, with seats allocated according to the largest remainder method. [5]

Parties and coalitions

Parliamentary parties

PartyMain ideologyLeaderCurrent seats
GERB–SDS Conservatism Boyko Borisov
75
ITN Populism Slavi Trifonov
51
BSPzB Democratic socialism Korneliya Ninova
43
DPS Turkish minority interests Mustafa Karadayi
30
DB Liberal conservatism Hristo Ivanov
27
ISMV Social liberalism Maya Manolova
14

Other parties

In May 2021, VMRO – Bulgarian National Movement formed an alliance with fellow neo-nationalists Volya Movement and National Front for the Salvation of Bulgaria in an alliance called Bulgarian Patriots. [6]

PartyMain ideologyLeaderCurrent seats
Bulgarian National Union – New Democracy Ultranationalism Boris Ivanov
Bogdan Yotsov		No seats
Bulgarian Patriots National conservatism Yulian Angelov
Revival Bulgarian nationalism Kostadin Kostadinov
Bulgarian Summer Direct democracy Boril Sokolov
RzB Conservatism Tsvetan Tsvetanov
Left Union Socialism Nikolay Malinov

Opinion polls

The opinion poll results below were recalculated from the original data and excludes pollees that chose 'I will not vote' or 'I am uncertain'.

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size		 GERB–SDS ITN BSPzB DPS DB ISMV BP Revival BL RzB Left Union Others / None Lead
VMRO Volya NFSB
July 2021 election11 July 2021–23.2%23.8%13.2%10.6%12.5%4.9%3.1%3.0%1.8%0.3%0.4%3.2%0.6%
Alpha Research / BNT Exit polls (20:00)—23.5%22.3%14.1%11.7%14.1%5.5%3.2%2.3%1.3%–0.3%1.7%1.2%
Gallup / BNT Exit polls (20:00)—22.1%21.5%15.1%11.8%13.7%4.9%3.3%3.2%2.2%–0.3%1.8%0.6%
Alpha Research 4–7 July 2021101321.5%21.8%16.4%11.1%12%5.4%3.8%3.2%1.2%–0.5%3.1%0.3%
Trend 3-7 July 2021100220.5%21.3%15.9%11.3%12.4%5.1%3.9%3.1%1.6%–0.8%4.1%0.8%
Gallup 30 Jun–7 July 2021101020.3%21.3%15.9%11.5%12.2%6.1%4%3.1%2.5%–1%2.1%1%
Sova Harris 2–6 July 2021100022.6%22.1%16%10.9%10.6%5.3%4.5%––––8%0.5%
Exacta 1–5 July 2021100521.4%20.8%15.8%11.2%12.8%4.8%4%2.8%1.8%––4.6%0.6%
Mediana 26 June–2 July 202192022.5%21.7%20.6%11.1%10%5.1%4.8%2.2%–––2%0.8%
Nasoca 23–30 Jun 2021102521.4%20.5%15.8%10.5%11.3%5.3%4.4%2.3%2.1%––6.4%0.9%
Specter 24–27 Jun 202170321.4%19.7%14.5%10.5%12.2%5.0%5.2%2.4%0.9%0.5%1.3%6.4%1.7%
Market links 18–25 Jun 202162621.8%20.8%18.7%10.5%13.8%6%3.2%2.7%1.4%––1.1%1%
Barometer 18–23 June 202186022.5%18.2%17.1%11.6%9.1%4.3%6.4%1.4%–1.2%1.9%6.2%4.3%
Trend 11–18 Jun 20211,00321.7%20.2%16.1%10.9%11.2%5.0%3.9%2.3%1.9%–1.1%5.7%1.5%
Sova Harris 10–15 Jun 20211,00022.4%21.7%18.7%11.4%11.1%5.4%4.9%––––4.4%0.7%
Mediana 10–15 Jun 20211,00821.4%24.0%21.3%11.2%7.2%6.9%5.1%1.5%–––1.4%2.6%
Gallup 3–11 Jun 20211,01221.0%21.2%15.9%11.9%12.1%5.8%3.5%2.7%2.4%––3.5%0.2%
Specter 5–10 Jun 202173121.0%19.4%14.1%10.3%11.5%4.8%4.8%2.8%0.9%0.9%1.5%8.0%1.6%
Alpha Research 30 May–7 Jun 20211,00720.3%18.2%14.4%9.9%11.9%5.3%3.4%2.8%1.1%–1.8%10.9%2.1%
Barometer 1–6 Jun 202184024.1%17.1%16.9%11.3%8.9%4.1%6.1%1.5%–1.3%1.1%7.6%7.0%
Market Links 19–27 May 202167623.7%19.8%19.3%10.6%13.3%4.8%4.6%2%–––2%3.9%
CAM [lower-alpha 1] 14–21 May 2021–23.8%20.9%18.0%10.5%11.4%4.4%3.7%1.9%–––5.5%2.9%
Gallup [lower-alpha 1] 7–14 May 202181222.8%20.1%16.1%11.2%11.6%5.6%3.1%1.4%–2.6%2.8%––6.9%2.7%
Market Links [lower-alpha 2] [lower-alpha 3] 16–23 Apr 20211,05323.2%22.3%18.1%10.3%13.1%6.5%3.3%––1.9%–––1.4%0.9%
Gallup 12–14 Apr 202183127.2%23.2%13.8%10.4%12.0%4.3%––––––––4.0%
April 2021 election 4 Apr 2021–25.8%17.4%14.8%10.4%9.3%4.6%3.6%2.3%2.4%2.9%1.3%0.5%4.7%8.4%
  1. 1 2 Includes voter-only data.
  2. ↑ Includes voters and non-voters.
  3. ↑ The sum of all percentages is above or below 100.

Graphical representation of recalculated data:

Campaign

During the buildup to the April election, Borisov sought to increase his party's share of the rural vote, making campaign stops at small villages in the Rhodope Mountains. [7] The April election showed a clear divide between rural and urban areas of the country; towns favored established parties, while Sofia and other cities went predominantly for new opposition parties, including ITN. [8] Reporters predicted these trends would influence the July election as well. [8]

Results

There Is Such a People received the most votes, finishing around 15,000 votes ahead of GERB–SDS. It was the first time that GERB or a GERB-led coalition had not won the most votes or seats since the party's establishment in 2006. Four other parties (BSP for Bulgaria, Democratic Bulgaria, Movement for Rights and Freedom, and Stand Up! Mafia, Get Out!) also won seats. [9] There Is Such a People performed well among young voters, with 37.4% of Generation Z supporting the party and 30.9% of voters aged 30–39. [10] GERB–SDS received high support from voters aged 40–69, and BSP for Bulgaria received high support from voters older than 70. [10]

International observers from the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe said freedoms were respected in the election. [9]

July 2021 Bulgaria Parliament.svg
PartyVotes%Seats+/–
There Is Such a People 657,82923.7865+14
GERB–SDS 642,16523.2163–12
BSP for Bulgaria 365,69513.2236–7
Democratic Bulgaria 345,33112.4834+7
Movement for Rights and Freedoms 292,51410.5729–1
Stand Up! Mafia, Get Out! 136,8854.9513–1
Bulgarian Patriots 85,7953.1000
Revival 82,1472.9700
Bulgarian Summer 49,8331.800New
Attack 12,5850.4500
Left Union for a Clean and Holy Republic 10,3090.370New
Republicans for Bulgaria 8,5460.3100
National Association of the Right7,8720.280New
People's Voice 4,7410.1700
Bulgarian National Union – New Democracy 4,6900.1700
Freedom4,3040.160New
Bulgaria of Work and Reason3,9480.140New
Together Movement for Change3,4450.1200
MIR3,4270.120New
Green Party of Bulgaria 3,2570.1200
Direct Democracy3,1430.1100
Brigade2,1870.080New
Rise8620.030New
Independents1420.0100
None of the above35,2011.27––
Total2,766,853100.002400
Valid votes2,766,85399.66
Invalid/blank votes9,3420.34
Total votes2,776,195100.00
Registered voters/turnout6,873,78440.39
Source: CIK, IFES

Voter demographics

Gallup exit polling suggested the following demographic breakdown. The parties which received below 4% of the vote are included in 'Others':

Voter demographics [11]
Social group % ITN  % GERB  % BSP  % DB  % DPS  % ISMV  % BP  % Revival  % Others % Lead
Exit Poll Result22.322.215121053380.1
Final Result242313121153361
Gender
Men222114121243391
Women21221614953371
Age
18–303313618104331015
30-60232211151053471
60+10253171143275
Highest Level of Education
Lower Education161018145321427
Secondary Education23241781143371
Higher Education22211421363461
Ethnic Group
Bulgarian23231715253480
Turkic4136171100458
Roma192015228330108
Location
Towns and Villages15221652912287
Smaller Cities2422218943452
Larger Cities252114142644104
Sofia162110321633811

Aftermath

The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe issued a statement that "Bulgaria's early parliamentary elections were competitive and fundamental freedoms were generally respected. The campaign environment was dominated by mutual accusations of corruption between the former ruling party and the provisional government, as well as by efforts by law-enforcement to curb vote-buying." [2]

The elections resulted in a narrow victory for the newly established There Is Such A People (ITN) party over the ruling GERB party. However, ITN won only 65 out of 240 seats in the National Assembly. Following the elections, ITN opted to try and form a minority government and started talks with potential partners (DB, IBG-NI & BSP) in order to secure their support. Nevertheless, these attempts proved unsuccessful and as a result ITN announced on 10 August that they were withdrawing their proposed cabinet, making a third election more likely. [12] [13] The leader of ITN, Slavi Trifonov, said in a video statement “This means new elections". [12] The mandate to form a cabinet went to GERB. [13] GERB, the party of the previous prime minister, Boyko Borisov, said earlier "it would not try to form a government". [12] The BSP said that if the scenario repeats itself, it would suggest that the current caretaker cabinet becomes permanent. IBG-NI also expressed confidence that it could come up with a solution if handed the mandate to form a government. [13] Trifonov subsequently announced that he would not support any other parties proposing a cabinet. [14] Parliament announced on 2 September that Bulgaria would hold the first round of the presidential election on November 14, with a snap parliamentary election likely to take place in the same month. [15] [16] On 6 September, the BSP handed back the last mandate of forming a government, meaning the parliament would be dissolved and a third parliamentary election would officially take place in 2021. [3] President Rumen Radev declared on 11 September that there would be 2-in-1 elections on November 14 for the first time in Bulgarian history, where voters would be able to vote on the president and the parliament. This decision was taken "to save treasury costs and voters time". [4]

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Politics of Bulgaria</span> Political system of Bulgaria

The politics of Bulgaria take place in a framework of a parliamentary representative democratic republic, whereby the prime minister is the head of government, and of a multi-party system. Executive power is exercised by the government. Legislative power is vested in both the government and the National Assembly. The Judiciary is independent of the executive and the legislature.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Bulgarian Socialist Party</span> Centre-left Bulgarian political party

The Bulgarian Socialist Party, also known as The Centenarian, is a centre-left, social democratic political party in Bulgaria. The BSP is a member of the Socialist International, Party of European Socialists, and Progressive Alliance. Although founded in 1990 in its modern form, it traces its political heritage back to the founding of the BRSDP in 1891. It is also Bulgaria's largest party by membership numbers.

Stanislav Todorov Trifonov, known as Slavi Trifonov, is a Bulgarian TV host, tambourine and viola player, singer and politician. Trifonov is mainly active in the traditional Bulgarian folklore music genres, but he has experimented with other genres such as hip-hop in collaboration with the Australian-based producer Yasen Subev, and pop-rock and punk as a part of Ku-Ku Band. His name is associated mainly with the Slavi's Show, Exiles, Canaletto and KU-KU.

The history of Bulgaria from 1990 to the present is the period of Bulgarian history that begins after the fall of Communism and the transition to a market economy.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2009 Bulgarian parliamentary election</span>

Parliamentary elections were held in Bulgaria on 5 July 2009. With 40% of the vote, the decisive winner of the elections was the established in 2006 personalistic party of Boyko Borisov, GERB. The Socialist Party, in power before the election, was in second place, with around 18%. Оnce-ruling National Movement Simeon II did not cross the 4% threshold and won no seats. The turnout was 60.6%, one of the lowest ever. Following the election, GERB leader Boyko Borisov became Prime Minister. Just like all the previous parliamentary elections since the fall of communism, the government was not re-elected.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2013 Bulgarian parliamentary election</span>

Parliamentary elections were held in Bulgaria on 12 May 2013, two months ahead of schedule. Protests had forced the resignation of the GERB government in February, leading to the election being moved up.

The Oresharski Government was the ninety-second cabinet of Bulgaria which took office on 29 May 2013. The government, led by Prime Minister Plamen Oresharski, is one of technocrats created following the 2013 election. The cabinet was dissolved on 6 August 2014 to make way for a caretaker government that would lead Bulgaria through early elections in October of the same year.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Maya Manolova</span> Bulgarian politician (born 1965)

Maya Bozhidarova Manolova is a Bulgarian politician and the leader of the political movement Stand Up.BG, part of the Stand Up! Mafia, get out! coalition. She was formerly the vice-chairperson as well as a deputy in the Bulgarian National Assembly, as well National Ombudsman of Bulgaria.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2014 Bulgarian parliamentary election</span>

Parliamentary elections were held in Bulgaria on 5 October 2014 to elect the 43rd National Assembly. GERB remained the largest party, winning 84 of the 240 seats with around a third of the vote. A total of eight parties won seats, the first time since the beginning of democratic elections in 1990 that more than seven parties entered parliament. Boyko Borisov then became prime minister as head of a coalition with the Reformist Bloc and with outside support from the Patriotic Front and the Alternative for Bulgarian Revival.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2017 Bulgarian parliamentary election</span>

Parliamentary elections were held in Bulgaria on 26 March 2017. They had originally been scheduled for 2018 at the end of the four-year term of the National Assembly. However, following the resignation of Prime Minister Boyko Borisov and the failure of Bulgarian parties to form a government, early elections were called. Borisov resigned following the defeat of Tsetska Tsacheva, the candidate of his GERB party, in the November 2016 presidential elections. The official election campaign began on 24 February.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">April 2021 Bulgarian parliamentary election</span>

Parliamentary elections were held in Bulgaria on 4 April 2021 at the end of the term of National Assembly members elected in 2017. Parties in the governing coalition led by Boyko Borisov lost seats and no party leader was able to form a coalition government within the time limit. This triggered the July 2021 Bulgarian parliamentary election.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">There is Such a People</span> Bulgarian populist political party

There Is Such a People is a populist political party in Bulgaria established by Bulgarian singer, TV host and politician Slavi Trifonov. Self-described as a "political product", the party is named after one of Trifonov's own musical albums.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2021 Bulgarian general election</span>

General elections were held in Bulgaria on 14 November 2021 to elect both the President and the National Assembly. They were the country's third parliamentary elections in 2021, with no party able to form a government after the elections in April and July. A second round of the presidential elections were held on 21 November 2021 as no candidate was able to receive a majority of the vote in the first round.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2022 Bulgarian parliamentary election</span>

Early parliamentary elections were held in Bulgaria on 2 October 2022 to elect members of the 48th National Assembly. The snap election was called after the fall of the Petkov Government, a four-party coalition, in June 2022. This was the fourth parliamentary election since 2021, an unprecedented situation in Bulgarian history, the previous elections being the April, July, and November 2021 elections.

We Continue the Change, sometimes translated as Change Continues, is a centrist, anti-corruption political party and formerly an electoral alliance in Bulgaria led by Kiril Petkov and Asen Vasilev, two former caretaker ministers. It was founded ahead of the November 2021 election. The party was officially registered on 15 April.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Middle European Class</span> Bulgarian political party

The Middle European Class, sometimes translated as Average European Class, is a political party in Bulgaria established by nightclub owner Georgi Manev. It is currently led by Konstantin Bachiiski and is part of the electoral coalition We Continue the Change.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Petkov Government</span> Government of Bulgaria

The Petkov Government, known as the Four-party coalition cabinet, was the ninety-ninth cabinet of Bulgaria. Chaired by prime minister Kiril Petkov, it was approved by the National Assembly on 13 December 2021 after the government formation as a result of the November 2021 parliamentary election. It was a so-called Vivaldi coalition, named after composer Antonio Vivaldi due to his work The Four Seasons which corresponds to the different political views present in this coalition: liberals, socialists (BSP), greens and conservatives. The government became a Minority government on 8 June 2022, when ITN pulled out of the government, and its mandate ended in late June 2022. It was the first government in Bulgarian history to lose a vote of confidence. On 1 July, Bulgarian President Rumen Radev asked Asen Vasilev to form a new government, which Vasilev failed to do and new elections were scheduled to take place.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2023 Bulgarian parliamentary election</span>

Parliamentary elections were held in Bulgaria on 2 April 2023 to elect members of the National Assembly. These were initially scheduled to be held before November 2026; however, as no government was approved by the 48th Parliament, Bulgarian President Rumen Radev announced in January 2023 that he would call a snap election.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2021–2023 Bulgarian political crisis</span> Political crisis in Bulgaria

The 2021–2023 Bulgarian political crisis was a period of instability in Bulgaria, which has seen the country face five elections over two years: April 2021, July 2021, November 2021, October 2022 and April 2023.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">47th National Assembly of Bulgaria</span>

The Forty-Seventh National Assembly was a convocation of the National Assembly of Bulgaria, formed according to the results of the early parliamentary elections in Bulgaria, held on 14 November 2021.

References

  1. 1 2 Bulgaria faces fresh elections as Socialists refuse to form a government Archived 2021-05-08 at the Wayback Machine Reuters, 1 May 2021
  2. 1 2 "Fundamental freedoms generally respected in Bulgarian elections, but media shortcomings, lack of issue-driven campaign fail to engage voters, observers say". Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe . Archived from the original on 2021-07-12. Retrieved 2021-07-13.
  3. 1 2 "Bulgaria faces fresh elections as Socialists refuse to form a government". Reuters. 2021-09-02. Archived from the original on 2021-09-05. Retrieved 2021-09-06.
  4. 1 2 "Bulgaria's President: Parliamentary and presidential elections will be '2 in 1' on November 14". The Sofia Globe. 2021-09-11. Archived from the original on 2021-09-11. Retrieved 2021-09-11.
  5. ↑ Electoral system for national legislature – Bulgaria Archived 2021-07-07 at the Wayback Machine IDEA
  6. ↑ "Ultra-nationalists, populists form 'Bulgarian Patriots' alliance for July elections". The Sofia Globe. 20 May 2021. Archived from the original on 21 May 2021. Retrieved 11 July 2021.
  7. ↑ Tsolova, Tsvetelia (2 April 2021). "Bulgarian PM woos rural voters with infrastructure in tough re-election bid". Reuters . Archived from the original on 16 July 2021. Retrieved 15 July 2021.
  8. 1 2 Nuttal, Grace (8 July 2021). "Diaspora voters set to choose change in Bulgaria and Moldova". bne IntelliNews . Archived from the original on 16 July 2021. Retrieved 15 July 2021.
  9. 1 2 Toshkov, Veselin (12 July 2021). "Anti-elite party earns tight win in Bulgarian elections". Associated Press . Archived from the original on 12 July 2021. Retrieved 13 July 2021.
  10. 1 2 "37.4% of Generation Z supports There is Such a People party: survey". Radio Bulgaria . 13 July 2021. Archived from the original on 13 July 2021. Retrieved 13 July 2021.
  11. ↑ "Демографски профили на вота – 12 July". Галъп интернешънъл (in Bulgarian). 2021-07-12. Retrieved 2022-08-10.
  12. 1 2 3 "Bulgaria's Winning Party Withdraws Proposed Cabinet, Paving Way For New Vote". RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty. Archived from the original on 2021-08-14. Retrieved 2021-08-14.
  13. 1 2 3 "Bulgaria Edges Closer to Third Election in a Year". Balkan Insight. 2021-08-10. Archived from the original on 2021-08-13. Retrieved 2021-08-14.
  14. ↑ "Bulgaria could be heading for third general election in a year". euronews. 2021-08-10. Archived from the original on 2021-08-14. Retrieved 2021-08-14.
  15. ↑ "Bulgaria to hold presidential election on Nov. 14". Reuters. 2021-09-02. Archived from the original on 2021-09-02. Retrieved 2021-09-02.
  16. ↑ "Bulgaria will hold November 14 presidential vote amid political crisis". POLITICO. 2021-09-02. Archived from the original on 2021-09-02. Retrieved 2021-09-02.
This page is based on this Wikipedia article
Text is available under the CC BY-SA 4.0 license; additional terms may apply.
Images, videos and audio are available under their respective licenses.