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An opinion poll, often simply referred to as a poll or a survey, is a human research survey of public opinion from a particular sample. Opinion polls are usually designed to represent the opinions of a population by conducting a series of questions and then extrapolating generalities in ratio or within confidence intervals. A person who conducts polls is referred to as a pollster.
Scott William Rasmussen is an American public opinion pollster and political analyst. He previously produced the ScottRasmussen.com Daily Tracking Poll, a gauge of American voters' political sentiment. He is editor-at-large for Ballotpedia, where he writes the Number of the Day Feature, and is a host for the podcast entitled "Just the Polls," a podcast series from Just the News.
SurveyUSA is a polling firm in the United States. It conducts market research for corporations and interest groups, but is best known for conducting opinion polls for various political offices and questions. SurveyUSA conducts these opinion polls under contract by over 50 television stations . The difference between SurveyUSA and other telephone polling firms is twofold. First, SurveyUSA does not use live call center employees, but an automated system. Taped questions are asked of the respondent by a professional announcer, and the respondent is invited to press a button on their touch tone telephone or record a message at a prompt designating their selection. Secondly, SurveyUSA uses more concise language, especially for ballot propositions, than competitors. This can lead to diverging results, such as for California Proposition 76, where one version of the SurveyUSA question with a one sentence description, polled significantly differently compared to another version with a three sentence description.
Rasmussen Reports is an American polling company founded in 2003. The company engages in political commentary and the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information. Rasmussen Reports conducts nightly tracking, at national and state levels, of elections, politics, current events, consumer confidence, business topics, and the United States president's job approval ratings. Surveys by the company are conducted using a combination of automated public opinion polling involving pre-recorded telephone inquiries and an online survey. The company generates revenue by selling advertising and subscriptions to its polling survey data.
Nathaniel Read Silver is an American statistician, writer, and poker player who analyzes baseball, basketball, and elections. He is the founder and editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight and a Special Correspondent for ABC News.
The 2008 United States Senate election in New Jersey was held on November 4, 2008. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Frank Lautenberg won re-election to a fifth, non-consecutive term, defeating former Republican congressman Dick Zimmer. Zimmer had also been the nominee for this seat in 1996.
FiveThirtyEight, sometimes rendered as 538, is an American website that focuses on opinion poll analysis, politics, economics, and sports blogging in the United States. The website, which takes its name from the number of electors in the United States electoral college, was founded on March 7, 2008, as a polling aggregation website with a blog created by analyst Nate Silver. In August 2010, the blog became a licensed feature of The New York Times online and renamed FiveThirtyEight: Nate Silver's Political Calculus.
The Quinnipiac University Poll is a public opinion polling center based at Quinnipiac University in Hamden, Connecticut. It surveys public opinion in Connecticut, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Minnesota, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Texas, Virginia, and nationally. The poll is unaffiliated with any academic department at the school and is run by Quinnipiac's public relations department.
Public Policy Polling (PPP) is an American polling firm affiliated with the Democratic Party. Founded in 2001 by businessman Dean Debnam, the firm is based in Raleigh, North Carolina. Debnam currently serves as president and CEO of PPP, while Tom Jensen serves as the firm's director.
The Marist Poll, founded in 1978, is a national public opinion poll operated by the Marist Institute for Public Opinion (MIPO) on the campus of Marist College in Poughkeepsie, New York. The poll was one of the first college-based public opinion polls in the United States. MIPO regularly measures public opinion, both in New York State and across the country. In 2020, polls were conducted in Arizona, Florida, New Hampshire, New York, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Texas. The Marist Poll is highly respected, with an 'A' rating from ABC News' FiveThirtyEight, and is often cited by journalists and pundits around the world.
A poll aggregator is an entity that tracks and aggregates, often but not exclusively by averaging, individual polls conducted by different organizations in order to gauge public sentiment on key civic issues such as the approval rating of a major political figure, or legislative body; or to measure likely public support for an individual candidate or political party in an upcoming election.
This is a list of nationwide public opinion polls that have been conducted relating to the Democratic primaries for the 2016 United States presidential election. The persons named in the polls are declared candidates, are former candidates, or have received media speculation about their possible candidacy.
This article is a collection of statewide polls for the 2016 United States presidential election. The polls listed here provide early data on opinion polling between the Democratic candidate, the Republican candidate, the Libertarian candidate, and the Green candidate. Prior to the parties' conventions, presumptive candidates were included in the polls. State polling is not conducted in all states for the election due to various factors. More polls usually are conducted in states that are considered swing states as more attention is given to the results. For determining a statistical tie, the margin of error provided by the polling source is applied to the result for each candidate.
Voter segments in political polling in the United States consist of all adults, registered voters, and likely voters.
The Suffolk University Political Research Center is an opinion polling center at Suffolk University in Boston, Massachusetts.
American Research Group, Incorporated is a U.S. opinion polling and marketing research company based in Manchester, New Hampshire, and founded in 1985. The president is Lafell Dickinson Bennett, known as Dick Bennett, who was the pollster for presidential candidate John B. Anderson in 1980.
J. Ann Selzer is an American political pollster who is the president of the Des Moines, Iowa-based polling firm Selzer & Company, which she founded in 1996. Her polls of Iowa voters have a reputation for being highly accurate, based on their performance in major elections from 2008 through 2020. She has been described as "the best pollster in politics" by Clare Malone of FiveThirtyEight, which also gives Selzer & Company a rare A+ grade for accuracy.
Change Research is a polling firm based in the San Francisco Bay Area. It was first incorporated as a public benefit corporation in July 2017 by Mike Greenfield, a former data scientist at PayPal and LinkedIn, and Pat Reilly, a former Democratic Party campaign operative. Unlike many other pollsters, Change Research conducts all of its polls online. It claims to offer accurate and inexpensive online polling. Its clients have included Democratic political candidates such as Lauren Underwood, who won a race in Illinois's 14th congressional district in 2018, as well as organizations such as the NAACP and AFL–CIO. In 2021, FiveThirtyEight ranked Change Research a "B−" for its historical accuracy and polling methodology and noted that it called 75% of races correctly.
References
- 1 2 About the Institute, Monmouth University Polling Institute.
- ↑ Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight's Pollster Ratings, FiveThirtyEight (last accessed March 26, 2021).
- ↑ Corzine Points a Spotlight at His Rival’s Waistline - New York Times. Retrieved July 25, 2011.
- ↑ The Year in Review 2010 Archived 2011-09-20 at the Wayback Machine - PolitickerNJ.com. Retrieved July 18, 2011.
- ↑ Power List 2010 Archived 2010-11-21 at the Wayback Machine - PolitickerNJ.com. Retrieved July 18, 2011.
- ↑ "Murray: Are Nate Silver's Pollster Ratings 'Done Right'?". The Huffington Post. June 18, 2010. Archived from the original on November 13, 2012.
- ↑ "New Jersey Watch (Monday)". The Huffington Post. October 26, 2009. Archived from the original on November 13, 2012.