Newspoll

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Newspoll
Headquarters Australia
Servicesresearch
Website www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/newspoll

Newspoll is an Australian opinion polling brand, published by The Australian and administered by Australian polling firm Pyxis Polling & Insights. [1]

Contents

Newspoll has a long tradition of predicting Australian Federal Election results, both federal and state. [2]

Until May 2015, Newspoll was a market research and polling company, part owned by News Corp Australia. In May 2015 administration of Newspoll was transferred to Galaxy Research. In December 2017, Galaxy Research was acquired by YouGov. [3] In August 2023, the contract to administer Newspoll was granted to Pyxis Polling & Insights.

Newspoll's surveys of voting intention are published exclusively in The Australian . The poll is widely cited in other Australian and global media.

Background and history

Newspoll was established in 1985 as a joint venture between News Limited and Yann Campbell Hoare Wheeler, which later was purchased by Millward Brown during the 1990s leading to the current ownership structure. In 2015 this company was wound up with The Australian announcing that henceforth Newspoll would become a polling brand administered by Galaxy. The transfer of operation to Galaxy came with a significant change in polling methods, from live telephone interviews to a mix of online and automated telephone interviews. [4] However, the wording of Newspoll questions remained the same. [5] In the first major test of this methodology, Newspoll conducted by Galaxy Research was the most accurate national published poll at the 2016 Australian Federal Election. [6]

A further change occurred in November 2019, with YouGov switching to entirely online polling. [7] Since this change, Newspoll has been consistently accurate, including having the final 2PP within 1% of the actual results in the Federal, South Australian, Victorian and NSW state elections as well as the referendum on the Voice for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians.

Recent Newspoll results

June 2023

The latest Newspoll was conducted between May 31-June 3 with a sample of 1549 respondents. [8]

Besides the usual questions on the federal leadership and voting intention, the poll also included a question on the upcoming referendum on the issue of an Indigenous voice to parliament (see below).

Labor’s lead over the Opposition remained unchanged, with the ALP polling a primary vote of 38% to 34% for the Coalition. [9]

Labor also retained its two-party preferred lead over the Coalition 55/45. [9]

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s approval rate was down by two points to 55%, while his disapproval rating was down one point to 37%. [9]

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton’s approval rating remained unchanged at 36%, while his disapproval rating slipped one point to 50%. [9]

Mr Albanese retained the lead over Mr Dutton as preferred prime minister 55 to 28, with both leaders down one point on the poll before (56-29). [9]

April 2023

The survey was conducted between April 19-22 with a sample of 1514 respondents. [10]

Labor increased its lead over the Coalition by one point, posting a two-party vote of 56-44. [11]

The Greens also posted a one point increase, which put Labor two points ahead of the Coalition - the biggest two-party preferred gap since September 2022, The Australian reported. [12]

The primary vote for both parties was unchanged with the ALP on 38% and the Coalition on 33%. [11]

Support for both major party leaders softened compared to the previous Newspoll with Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s approval rating slipping three points to 53% and his disapproval rating rising two points to 37%. [11]

Mr Albanese’s net approval score fell five points to +16, his worst since becoming Prime Minister. [10]

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton’s approval rating fell two points to 33% while his disapproval rating rose four points to 52%. Mr Dutton’s net approval rating slipped six points to a new low of -19. [10]

As The Australian reported, the softening in support for both leaders came as the pair locked horns over the voice referendum and a deteriorating economic outlook. [12]

It was also the first Newspoll to test the mood of the electorate since Mr Dutton formalized his party’s opposition to the referendum. [12]

Indigenous Voice to Parliament

Australians voted in the country’s first referendum in 24 years. The referendum proposed a change to Australia's Constitution, enabling an Indigenous voice to parliament. [13]

In June 2023, a Newspoll conducted exclusively for The Australian revealed that 46% of eligible Australians intended to vote ‘yes’ in the referendum, while 43% said they would vote ‘no’ and 11% of people were undecided. [14]  

It was the first Newspoll to present voters with the precise question Australians will be asked at the ballot box when they vote in the referendum, set to be conducted on a date yet to be announced, later in 2023. [14]

As The Australian reported, women, young people and city-based university educated people were more likely to vote ‘yes’, while the ‘no’ vote was being driven by regional Australians, the non-university educated and the over 50s. Men were narrowly more likely to vote ‘no’ than women, the poll found. [14]

The referendum was defeated by a significant margin.

Prime Minister polling

Two party preferred polling between the 2004 election and 2007 election by Newspoll 1993-2007 Archived 3 March 2016 at the Wayback Machine (as published in The Australian newspaper), ACNielsen 1996-2007 Archived 27 June 2006 at the Wayback Machine (as published in Fairfax newspapers), Roy Morgan 1996-2007 and Galaxy 2004-2007. Pollchart-tpp-event.svg
Two party preferred polling between the 2004 election and 2007 election by Newspoll 1993–2007 Archived 3 March 2016 at the Wayback Machine (as published in The Australian newspaper), ACNielsen 1996–2007 Archived 27 June 2006 at the Wayback Machine (as published in Fairfax newspapers), Roy Morgan 1996–2007 and Galaxy 2004–2007.
Preferred Prime Minister polling between the 2004 election and 2007 election by Newspoll 1987-2007 Archived 3 March 2016 at the Wayback Machine (as published in The Australian newspaper) and ACNielsen 1996-2007 Archived 27 June 2006 at the Wayback Machine (as published in Fairfax newspapers). Pollchart-ppm.svg
Preferred Prime Minister polling between the 2004 election and 2007 election by Newspoll 1987–2007 Archived 3 March 2016 at the Wayback Machine (as published in The Australian newspaper) and ACNielsen 1996–2007 Archived 27 June 2006 at the Wayback Machine (as published in Fairfax newspapers).

The lists below show the Prime Ministers with the highest and lowest career ratings. In many cases the highest and second-highest (etc.) or lowest and second-lowest (etc.) ratings are held by the same Prime Minister.

Highest approval rating

Kevin Rudd has the highest career-peak approval rating, with 71% (18–20 April 2008).
Scott Morrison has the second-highest career-peak approval rating, with 68% (22–25 April 2020 and 24–27 June 2020)
John Howard has the third-highest career-peak approval rating, with 67% (10–12 May 1996) .
Bob Hawke's highest approval rating was 62% (24–26 Jan 1986), but Newspoll did not poll until over two years after he became Prime Minister.

Highest dissatisfied rating

Paul Keating has the highest recorded "dissatisfied" rating, with 75% (3–5 September 1993).
Tony Abbott has the second-highest career-peak "dissatisfied" rating, with 68% (6–8 February 2015 and 20–22 February 2015).
Julia Gillard has the equal second-highest career-peak "dissatisfied" rating, with 68% (2–4 September 2011).

Highest "Better Prime Minister" score

Until mid-1991, "Better Prime Minister" ratings were only surveyed during election campaigns.

Kevin Rudd has the highest "Better Prime Minister" score, with 73% (28 Feb-2 Mar 2008 and 4–6 April 2008).
John Howard has the second-highest career-peak "Better Prime Minister" score, with 67% (20–22 June 2003).
Bob Hawke has the third-highest career-peak "Better Prime Minister" score, with 62% (5–7 June 1987 and 16–21 June 1987).

Lowest "Better Prime Minister" score

Paul Keating has the lowest "Better Prime Minister" score, with 27% (20–22 August 1993).
Tony Abbott has the second-lowest career-low "Better Prime Minister" score, with 30% (6–8 February 2015).
John Howard has the third-lowest career-low "Better Prime Minister" score, with 31% (24–6 July 1998).

Opposition Leader polling

Note: The lists below show the Opposition Leaders with the highest and lowest career ratings. In many cases the highest and second-highest (etc.) or lowest and second-lowest (etc.) ratings are held by the same Opposition Leader. For instance, 14% is not the second-lowest "Better Prime Minister" score ever recorded, since Brendan Nelson recorded ten scores of below 14%.

Highest approval rating

Kevin Rudd has had the highest recorded approval rating, of 68% (16–18 February 2007 and 11–13 May 2007).
Mark Latham has the second-highest career-peak approval rating, of 66% (19–21 March 2004).
John Hewson has the third-highest career-peak approval rating, of 55% (17–19 January 1992).

Lowest approval rating

Alexander Downer recorded the lowest approval rating, of 20% (2–4 December 1994 and 16–18 December 1994).
Three leaders have recorded career-low approval ratings of 22%. They are Andrew Peacock (19–21 May 1989), John Hewson (11–13 March 1994) and Simon Crean (28–30 November 2003).

Highest dissatisfaction rating

Alexander Downer recorded the highest dissatisfaction rating, of 69% (2–4 December 1994).
Andrew Peacock recorded the second-highest career-high dissatisfaction rating, of 67% (16–18 March 1990).
John Hewson recorded the third-highest career-high dissatisfaction rating, of 64% (11–13 March 1994).

Highest "Better Prime Minister" score

Kevin Rudd holds the record with 50% (19–21 October 2007).
Alexander Downer recorded the second-highest career-peak score, of 48% (8–10 July 1994).
Bill Shorten recorded the equal second-highest career-peak score, of 48% (6–8 February 2015).

Lowest "Better Prime Minister" score

Brendan Nelson holds the record, with 7% (29 February-2 March 2008).
Simon Crean (28–30 November 2003), Malcolm Turnbull (27–29 November 2009) and Bill Shorten (4–6 December 2015) recorded the equal-second lowest career low, with 14%. See note at top of this section.

See also

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References

  1. ↑ "Expert pollster Campbell White commits to keeping Newspoll on top". The Australian. 19 August 2023.
  2. ↑ "Newspoll Archives". The Australian. 29 August 2021.
  3. ↑ "YouGov buys Galaxy in Australia | News". Research Live. Retrieved 4 October 2018.
  4. ↑ "Antony Green - ABC News". www.abc.net.au. Retrieved 18 April 2023.
  5. ↑ Bowe, William (4 May 2015). Newspoll's star winks out leaving a lonely Galaxy. Crikey. Retrieved 1 March 2016.
  6. ↑ "Poll Bludger: How did the pollsters do?". 24 July 2016.
  7. ↑ "Reform with aim of getting it right". The Australian. Retrieved 18 April 2023. (subscription required)
  8. ↑ "Labor maintains large Newspoll lead, but support for Voice slumps". The Conversation.
  9. 1 2 3 4 5 "Newspoll: 55-45 to Labor (open thread)". The Poll Bludger.
  10. 1 2 3 "Labor gains in Newspoll but Voice support slumps in other polls; NSW final results and Queensland polls". The Conversation.
  11. 1 2 3 "Newspoll: 56-44 to Labor (open thread)". The Poll Bludger.
  12. 1 2 3 "Latest Newspoll deals blows for Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton". The Australian.
  13. ↑ "What is the Indigenous voice to parliament? Your questions answered". The Australian.
  14. 1 2 3 "Newspoll reveals 46% of Australians intend to vote 'yes' to an Indigenous voice to parliament in referendum, 43% no". The Australian.
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