Next Kosovan parliamentary election

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Next Kosovan parliamentary election
Flag of Kosovo.svg
  2021 By 16 February 2025

All 120 seats in the Assembly
61 seats needed for a majority
PartyLeaderCurrent seats
Vetëvendosje Albin Kurti 58
PDK Bedri Hamza [lower-alpha 1] 18
LDK Lumir Abdixhiku 16
AAKNISMA–CLTBD8
Serb List Zlatan Elek10
KDTP Fikrim Damka2
Vakat Bahrim Šabani1
IRDK Elbert Krasniqi 1
RI Gazmend Salijević1
NDS Emilija Redžepi 1
SDU Duda Balje 1
JGP Adem Hodža 1
PAI Bekim Arifi1
LPRK Erxhan Galushi1

Parliamentary elections will be held in Kosovo no later than 2025. If the full four year term of the incumbent Assembly is completed, the election will be held on a Sunday and not earlier than 60 days and no later than 30 days before the end of the mandate. [1]

Contents

Background

In the 2021 elections Lëvizja Vetëvendosje (LVV) won 58 seats. [2] They created a coalition with minority parties, including the Serb List, to form a Government. [3]

Date

The Constitution and the Law on General Elections provide that parliamentary elections must be held on a Sunday no earlier than 60 days and no later than 30 days before the end of the four-year mandate of the Assembly, unless it is dissolved earlier. [4] The 8th and current Legislature of the Assembly was constituted on 22 March 2021. Therefore, the next election has to take place on one of the following possible dates:

The exact date will be determined by the president no earlier than 6 months and no later than 4 months before the date of the election. Parliamentary elections can be held earlier under four scenarios described by the constitution.

  1. If the Government cannot be formed within the period of sixty (60) days from the date of appointment of the candidate for Prime Minister by the President of the Republic of Kosovo;
  2. If two-thirds (2/3) of all deputies vote for the dissolution of the Assembly, the dissolution is done by decree of the President of the Republic of Kosovo;
  3. If within the period of sixty (60) days from the day of the start of the election procedure, the President of the Republic of Kosovo is not elected.
  4. In case of a successful vote of no confidence in the Government, The Assembly can be dissolved by the President of the Republic of Kosovo. [5]

In all cases, parliamentary elections would have to take place on a Sunday no earlier than 30 days and no later than 45 days after the dissolution. [5]

Electoral system

The 120 members of the Assembly of Kosovo are elected by open list proportional representation, with 20 seats reserved for national minorities. [6] An electoral threshold of 5% is in place for non-minority parties. Seats are allocated using the Webster/Sainte-Laguë method. [7] To form a government, a party or coalition must have a majority of 61 MPs out of 120 seats in the Assembly of Kosovo.

Opinion polls

Graphic representation

National polls

PollsterDate LVV LDK PDK AAK-NISMA-CL (Coalition) SL OtherAbstentionLead
LVV A Guxo LDK AKR AAK NISMA CLK

UBO

5 April 202449.50.61617.16.95.64.332.4
27 March 2024 Bedri Hamza is nominated by the Democratic Party of Kosovo for Prime Minister

PIPOS

22 February 202440.90.10.421.520.49.00.44.619.4
17 January 2024 AAK, Social Democratic NISMA and Conservative List of Kosovo form an electoral alliance
UBO 16–23 December 202348.50.10.817.918.26.81.53.23.030.3
UBO 23 December 202242.60.21.319.80.2197.324.33.422.8
PIPOS December 202235.5122.20.421.562.40.213.3
UBO September 202237.30.31.522.30.321.77.71.25.12.115
PIPOS August 202233.20.20.921.60.218.310.11.511.6
PIPOS 7 July 202238.11.225.121.311.92.113
UBO 18 June 202239.61.320.321.96.71.94.23.517.7
UBO May 202238.317.719.76.518.6
UBO 7–15 March 202241.91.119.40.421.67.214.22.820.3
PIPOS 12 February 202234.724.121.37.70.40.510.6
2021 election 14 February 202150.312.7317.017.22.525.0933.29

Seat projections

The projections below are calculated according to the opinion polls from above.

Date LVV LDK PDK AAK SL OtherLead
April 20245618197 [lower-alpha 2] 101037
February 202445232210 [lower-alpha 2] 101022
December 20235320207101033
January 20234822228101026
December 20224226257101016
September 20224225249101017
August 202240262212101014
July 202240262212101014
June 20224423258101019
May 20224721248101023
March 20224622248101022
February 20224027249101013

Leadership approval

PollsterDate Kurti Abdixhiku Krasniqi Haradinaj Limaj Osmani Pacolli Kusari-Lila Lead
PIPOS February 20243.072.132.051.891.653.060.01
PIPOS December 202226.720177.22.911.80.40.46.7
PIPOS August 20222.982.922.602.382.133.372.332.310.39
PIPOS February 202228.918.613.36.21.57.30.510.3

Albin Kurti

The polls below asked voters for their opinion of Albin Kurti, prime minister of Kosovo since March 2021.

PollsterDateApproveDisapproveLead
UNDP 28 February 202448.951.1-2.6
UNDP 25 April 202351.548.53.0

Glauk Konjufca

The polls below asked voters for their opinion of Glauk Konjufca, chairman of Assembly of the Republic of Kosovo since March 2021.

PollsterDateApproveDisapproveLead
UNDP 28 February 202452.247.84.7
UNDP 25 April 202358.341.716.6
  1. Although Memli Krasniqi is leader of the PDK, Bedri Hamza will be its candidate for Prime Minister
  2. 1 2 AAK-NISMA-CL coalition

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References

  1. Constitution of Kosovo p.6
  2. ndi.org
  3. prishtinainsight.com
  4. Constitution of Kosovo p.6
  5. 1 2 "THE LAW ON GENERAL ELECTIONS IN THE REPUBLIC OF KOSOVO" (PDF). Retrieved 27 December 2023.PD-icon.svg This article incorporates text from this source, which is in the public domain .
  6. Kosovo IFES
  7. Law No. 03/L-073 on General Elections in the Republic of Kosovo, Article 111.2