Opinion polling for the 2007 French legislative election

Last updated

This page lists public opinion polls conducted for the 2007 French legislative elections, which were held in two rounds on 10 and 17 June 2007.

Contents

Unless otherwise noted, all polls listed below are compliant with the regulations of the national polling commission (Commission nationale des sondages) and utilize the quota method.

Graphical summary

The averages in the graphs below were constructed using polls listed below conducted by the five major French pollsters. The graphs are smoothed 14-day weighted moving averages, using only the most recent poll conducted by any given pollster within that range (each poll weighted based on recency).

Opinion polling for the French legislative election, 2007.png

First round

During the 2007 presidential election, Ipsos launched the first ever rolling poll in France, described as a "continuous electoral barometer", [1] which it continued to carry out for the legislative elections in June.

Other far-left parties received 0.32% of the vote in the first round in 2002; this total is included in the total for miscellaneous candidates, which would otherwise be 0.84%. Results for the Citizen and Republican Movement are compared with those of the Republican Pole in 2002, and Liberal Democracy and Rally for France are included in the miscellaneous right total for that year, which would otherwise be 3.89%; the two parties received 0.42% and 0.36% of the vote, respectively.

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Abs. LO LCR PCF MRC PS PRG DVG LV ECO MoDem NC UMP DVD MPF FN MNR CPNT EXD REG DIV
2007 election 10 Jun 200739.58%3.41% (EXG)4.29%(DVG)24.73%1.32%1.97%3.25%0.80%7.61%2.37%39.54%2.47%1.20%4.29%(EXD)0.82%0.39%0.51%1.03%
Ipsos 8 Jun 20079622.5%3.5%29.5%2.5%10%41.5%1%1.5%5.5%0.5%0.5%1.5%
CSA 6–7 Jun 20078221%3%4%28%4%7%41%1%6%1%4%
Ipsos 6–7 Jun 20071,2073%4%28%3%9%43%1%1.5%5%0.5%0.5%1.5%
Ipsos 5–6 Jun 20071,2073%4%29%3%9%41.5%1%2%5.5%0.5%0.5%1%
TNS Sofres 5–6 Jun 20071,0003.5%3%29.5%3%10%41.5%2%1%4%0.5%0.5%1.5%
BVA 4–5 Jun 20078203%4%28%3%8%42%4%5%3%
Ipsos 4–5 Jun 20071,2063%3.5%29%3%9%41.5%1%1.5%6%0.5%1%1%
Ipsos 1–4 Jun 20071,5582.5%3.5%29%3.5%9%42.5%1%1%5.5%0.5%0.5%1.5%
Ipsos 31 May–2 Jun 20071,3572.5%3.5%29%4%8%43%1%1.5%5%0.5%0.5%1.5%
Ifop 31 May–1 Jun 20079294%4.5%27%3%9%41%1.5%6%4%
Ipsos 30 May–1 Jun 20071,2242.5%3%29.5%4%7.5%43.5%1.5%1.5%4.5%0.5%0.5%1.5%
CSA 30–31 May 20078522%2%4%26%5%8%42%1%5%1%4%
Ipsos 29–31 May 20071,2122.5%3%29.5%3.5%7%43.5%1.5%2%5%0.5%0.5%1.5%
Ipsos 28–30 May 20071,2153%3.5%29.5%3%7.5%43.5%1.5%2%4.5%0.5%0.5%1%
TNS Sofres 28–29 May 20071,0004%4%27%3%10%42%2%1.5%4%0.5%0.5%1.5%
Ipsos 26–29 May 20071,3213%3.5%29.5%3%8.5%43%1%2%4.5%0.5%0.5%1%
Ipsos 25–28 May 20071,3563%4%28.5%3%9%43.5%1%2%4%0.5%0.5%1%
Ipsos 24–26 May 20071,3563%4%28%2.5%9.5%43%1%2.5%4.5%0.5%0.5%1%
Ifop 24–25 May 20079312%3.5%27.5%4%12%41%2%6%2%
Ipsos 23–25 May 20071,2513%4%27.5%2.5%9.5%43.5%1%2%5%0.5%0.5%1%
CSA 23–24 May 20078632%3%3%26%5%12%37%2%8%1%1%
Ipsos 22–24 May 20071,2134%4%28%3%9%42.5%2.5%5%0.5%1.5%
Ipsos 21–23 May 20071,2124%4%29%3.5%8.5%41.5%2%5.5%0.5%1.5%
BVA 21–22 May 20078654.5%3%30%3.5%9%42%3%5%
Ipsos 19–22 May 20071,7734%3.5%28.5%3.5%9%41.5%2.5%5.5%0.5%1.5%
Ipsos 19–21 May 20071,3724%3.5%29.5%4%8.5%41%2.5%5.5%0.5%1%
Ipsos 19 May 20079684%3%29%4%9%41%2.5%6%0.5%1%
TNS Sofres 18–19 May 20071,0003.5%3.5%28%4%15%40%1.5%3.5%1%
CSA 15–16 May 20078901%2%3%27%3%16%38%1%7%1%1%
BVA 14–15 May 20078403%3%30%4%12%36%4%8%
Ipsos 11–12 May 20079483%3.5%28%4%10%40%2%8%0.5%1%
Ifop 10–11 May 20078853%4%28%4%14%37%2%7%1%
BVA 7 May 20078065%3%30%6%9%35%4%8%
CSA 6 May 20071,0302%1%2%30%1%15%35%2%8%2%2%
Ifop 3–4 May 20078834%4%29%5%12%34%2%7%1%2%
TNS Sofres 23 Apr 20071,0004%3%32%4%12%32%2%9%2%
BVA 8–9 Jan 20078594%5%31%2%5%1%5%31%3%10%3%
2002 election 9 Jun 200235.58%1.18%1.24%4.91%1.19%23.78%1.51%1.38%4.44%1.15%4.79%33.37%4.68%0.79%11.12%1.08%1.64%0.25%0.36%1.16%

Second round seat projections

Projections marked with an asterisk (*) are for 555 deputies representing metropolitan France. The final three Ipsos projections were constructed using interviews in 184 constituencies with left-right duels where the outcome appeared uncertain, while the two preceding projections were based on 197 constituencies.

Seats for Liberal Democracy and Rally for France are included in the miscellaneous right total for 2002, which would otherwise be 9; the parties each won 2 seats.

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Abs. PCF MRC PS PRG DVG LV MoDem NC UMP DVD MPF REG DIV
2007 election 17 Jun 200740.02%15(DVG)18671543223139111
Ipsos 14–15 Jun 20071,20911–16140–1752–42–320–23358–3952
CSA*13–14 Jun 200793910–1595–1301–31–3420–4631–3
Ipsos 13–14 Jun 20071,00910–15125–1562–32–320–23379–4112
Ipsos 12–13 Jun 200797210–15121–1491–32–320–23386–4152
TNS Sofres*12–13 Jun 20071,00010–15125–1552–41–221–23380–41022
BVA*12 Jun 200780610–16105–1313–41–3394–434
Ipsos 11–12 Jun 20071,3738–15115–1461–32–320–23388–4222
Ipsos 11 Jun 20077937–14117–1571–31–320–23387–4282
Ipsos*8 Jun 20079625–10114–1620–22–621–24364–404
CSA*6–7 Jun 20078224–12110–1541–31–6390–4202–3
TNS Sofres*5–6 Jun 20071,0004–10115–1551–32–6390–4302–3
BVA*4–5 Jun 20078206–14120–1731–31–4366–4190–3
Ipsos*4–5 Jun 20071,2065–10115–1580–21–621–24361–406
Ifop*31 May–1 Jun 20079299–1580–1200–20–4420–4602
CSA*30–31 May 20078524–12111–1511–31–6402–4252–3
TNS Sofres*28–29 May 20071,0004–10101–1421–32–6410–4302–3
Ipsos*25–28 May 20071,3566–12102–1420–21–621–25380–417
Ifop*24–25 May 20079316–1090–1300–20–6410–4502
CSA*23–24 May 20078636–14132–1821–41–6353–4072–3
BVA*21–22 May 20078654–10121–1590–30–3379–431
TNS Sofres*18–19 May 20071,0002–9137–1531–22–10365–4152–3
BVA*14–15 May 200784014–21151–2001–20–4317–3814–11
Ifop*10–11 May 20078859–13149–1900–40–8336–3900–2
BVA*7 May 200780614–18158–2000–68–13288–3444–7
2002 election 16 Jun 200239.69%2101407632935513111

By second round configuration

Configurations tested before the first were collected among a national sample, except for the Ipsos poll conducted on 13 June 2007 which was conducted specifically in 17 constituencies where a victory for a French Communist Party candidate was considered possible.

PS/PCF/LV–UMP/NC

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
PS/
PCF/LV
UMP/
NC
Ipsos 8 Jun 200796244%56%
Ipsos 6–7 Jun 20071,20743%57%
Ipsos 5–6 Jun 20071,20744%56%
Ipsos 4–5 Jun 20071,20644%56%
Ipsos 1–4 Jun 20071,55843%57%
Ipsos 31 May–2 Jun 20071,35743.5%56.5%
Ipsos 30 May–1 Jun 20071,22444%56%
Ipsos 29–31 May 20071,21244.5%55.5%
Ipsos 28–30 May 20071,21544%56%
Ipsos 26–29 May 20071,32143.5%56.5%
Ipsos 25–28 May 20071,35642.5%57.5%
Ipsos 24–26 May 20071,35642.5%57.5%
Ipsos 23–25 May 20071,25142%58%
Ipsos 22–24 May 20071,21342%58%
Ipsos 21–23 May 20071,21243%57%
Ipsos 19–22 May 20071,77343%57%
Ipsos 19–21 May 20071,37244%56%
Ipsos 19 May 200796843%57%
Ipsos 11–12 May 200794844%56%

PS/PCF/LV–MoDem–UMP

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
PS/
PCF/LV
MoDem UMP
Ipsos 21–23 May 20071,21239%9%52%
Ipsos 19–22 May 20071,77338%10%52%
Ipsos 19–21 May 20071,37239%10%51%
Ipsos 19 May 200796838%10%52%
Ipsos 11–12 May 200794838%11%51%

PCF–UMP/NC

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
PCF UMP/
NC
Ipsos 13 Jun 200760354%46%

By constituency

First round

Ardèche's 2nd

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Abs.Jean Fantini
PCF
Olivier Dussopt
PS
Jean-Claude Mourgues
LV
Dominique Chambon
MoDem
Gérard Weber
UMP
Jacques Dubay
DVD
Claude Richard
FN
Others
2007 election 10 Jun 200737.71%3.51%26.10%3.42%8.82%29.37%16.87%3.72%8.20%
BVA 1–5 Jun 20076072.5%27%4%14%26%14%6%6.5%

Drôme's 2nd

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Abs.Anne-Marie Reme-Pic
PS
Thierry Cornillet
MoDem
Franck Reynier
UMP
Joël Cheval
FN
Others
2007 election 10 Jun 200739.10%27.76%13.71%40.41%6.63%11.50%
BVA 31 May–2 Jun 200760328%17%36%6%13%

Eure's 3rd

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Abs.Francis Courel
PS diss.
Nathalie Zanon
PS
Philippe Raviart
MoDem
Hervé Morin
NC
Marc Le Tanneur
FN
Others
2007 election 10 Jun 200736.78%16.07%10.32%5.40%50.05%3.97%14.19%
Ifop 4–5 Jun 200760717%10%5%49%4%15%

Gironde's 2nd

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Abs. Michèle Delaunay
PS
Pierre Hurmic
LV
Ludovic Guinard
MoDem
Alain Juppé
UMP
Others
2007 election 10 Jun 200739.54%31.36%6.83%8.31%43.73%9.77%
Ifop 29–30 May 200760233%6%6%44%11%

Isère's 1st

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Abs. Geneviève Fioraso
PS
Marie-Odile Novelli
LV
Philippe de Longevialle
MoDem
Alain Carignon
UMP
Richard Cazenave
DVD
Others
2007 election 10 Jun 200736.88%32.02%6.52%10.35%21.45%19.62%10.04%
BVA 31 May–2 Jun 200760435%5%11%19%20%10%

Pyrénées-Atlantiques's 2nd

Jean-Pierre Mariné withdrew and did not contest the second round despite being eligible to after the decision of the party to allow Bayrou to carry the constituency. [2]

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Abs.Marie-Pierre Cabanne
PS
Nicole Juyoux
LV
François Bayrou
MoDem
Jean-Pierre Mariné
UMP
Michèle Darricarrère
FN
Frédéric Nihous
CPNT
Others
2007 election 10 Jun 200733.22%23.32%2.36%37.25%25.92%2.29%2.39%6.47%
Ifop 1–2 Jun 200760321%2.5%45%20%3%3%5.5%

Saône-et-Loire's 6th

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Abs. Arnaud Montebourg
PS
Éric Michoux
MoDem
Arnaud Danjean
UMP
Monique Faure-Lafont
FN
Others
2007 election 10 Jun 200735.04%41.37%4.58%43.95%2.91%7.18%
Ifop 2–4 Jun 200760542%5%39%8%6%

Sarthe's 4th

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Abs.Gilles Leproust
PCF
Stéphane Le Foll
PS
Jean-Pierre Bourrely
MoDem
François Fillon
UMP
Catherine du Boisbaudry
FN
Others
2007 election 10 Jun 200736.47%4.09%30.03%4.10%53.40%2.39%5.99%
Ifop 29–30 May 20076024%25%4%54%5%8%

Paris's 8th

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Abs. Sandrine Mazetier
PS
Pénélope Komitès
LV
Jean-François Pernin
MoDem
Arno Klarsfeld
UMP
Philippe Coulnecheff
FN
Others
2007 election 10 Jun 200734.29%33.54%3.67%12.31%35.76%2.47%12.24%
Ifop 4–5 Jun 200760534%5%13%34%4%10%

Vaucluse's 4th

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Abs.Pierre Meffre
PS
Roland Roticci
MoDem
Thierry Mariani
UMP
Jacques Bompard
MPF
Emmanuelle Gueguen
FN
Others
2007 election 10 Jun 200737.11%20.34%4.80%41.36%19.72%4.44%9.34%
BVA 31 May–2 Jun 200760524%3%40%19%5%9%

Second round

Ardèche's 2nd

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Abs. Olivier Dussopt
PS
Dominique Chambon
MoDem
Gérard Weber
UMP
2007 election 17 Jun 200737.16%53.71%46.29%
BVA 1–5 Jun 200760751%49%
43%15%42%

Drôme's 2nd

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Abs.Anne-Marie Reme-Pic
PS
Thierry Cornillet
MoDem
Franck Reynier
UMP
2007 election 17 Jun 200739.10%47.00%53.00%
BVA 31 May–2 Jun 200760350%50%
39%18%43%
47%53%
47%53%

Eure's 3rd

Hervé Morin was directly elected in the first round on 10 June 2007.

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Abs.Francis Courel
PS diss.
Hervé Morin
NC
Ifop 4–5 Jun 200760741%59%

Gironde's 2nd

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Abs. Michèle Delaunay
PS
Alain Juppé
UMP
2007 election 17 Jun 200738.93%50.93%49.07%
Ifop 29–30 May 200760248.5%51.5%

Isère's 1st

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Abs. Geneviève Fioraso
PS
Philippe de Longevialle
MoDem
Alain Carignon
UMP
Richard Cazenave
DVD
2007 election 17 Jun 200737.64%63.03%36.97%
BVA 31 May–2 Jun 200760462%38%
50%22%28%
53%47%
46%24%30%
45%18%37%

Pyrénées-Atlantiques's 2nd

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Abs.Marie-Pierre Cabanne
PS
François Bayrou
MoDem
Jean-Pierre Mariné
UMP
2007 election 17 Jun 200737.26%38.79%61.21%
Ifop 1–2 Jun 200760328%46%26%

Saône-et-Loire's 6th

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Abs. Arnaud Montebourg
PS
Arnaud Danjean
UMP
2007 election 17 Jun 200730.10%50.34%49.66%
Ifop 2–4 Jun 200760551%49%

Paris's 8th

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Abs. Sandrine Mazetier
PS
Arno Klarsfeld
UMP
2007 election 17 Jun 200735.64%55.85%44.15%
Ifop 4–5 Jun 200760550%50%

Vaucluse's 4th

Polling firmFieldwork dateSample
size
Abs.Pierre Meffre
PS
Thierry Mariani
UMP
Jacques Bompard
MPF
2007 election 17 Jun 200739.31%39.82%60.18%
BVA 31 May–2 Jun 200760537%63%
32%46%22%
69%31%

See also

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References

  1. "Ipsos lance le premier baromètre électoral en continu". Ipsos. 28 February 2007. Retrieved 1 March 2018.
  2. "François Bayrou réélu dans les Pyrénée-Atlantiques". La Dépêche du Midi. 17 June 2007. Retrieved 1 March 2018.