Opinion polling for the 2018 Mexican general election

Last updated

Opinion polling was carried out prior to the 2018 Mexican general election.

Contents

The 2018 Mexican election features nine registered political parties, including the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), National Action Party (PAN), Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD), and the newly formed National Regeneration Movement (Morena).

Coalition backgrounds

Todos por México

PRI, which held the presidency from 1929 to 2000 and is currently in power under President Peña Nieto, is primarily a center-right party. It will be contesting the elections in a coalition alongside the Ecological Green Party of Mexico and the New Alliance Party (Mexico) under the coalition " Todos por México " ("Everyone for Mexico").

Por México al Frente

PAN is a center-right, Christian democracy [1] party which held the presidency in 2 sexenios from 2000-2012.

PRD grew out of the PRI in 1986 as the leftists who created the Corriente Democrática (Democratic Current) within PRI split off. It came quite close to claiming the presidency in 2006. Surprisingly, the PRD decided to form a coalition with the right-wing PAN, and they will contest the elections alongside Citizens' Movement in a coalition called " Por México al Frente " ("For Mexico, to the Front"). [2] [3] [4] [5]

Juntos Haremos Historia

MORENA, created in 2014 by Andrés Manuel López Obrador, affectionately called AMLO, is a left-leaning party which split from the PRD. [6] It will contest the elections as a coalition with the Labor Party (PT) and the Social Encounter Party (PES), called " Juntos Haremos Historia " ("Together we'll make history").

By coalitions

PollsterDate PAN (Mexico).svg PRD logo without border (Mexico).svg MC Party (Mexico).svg Morena logo (Mexico).svg PT Party (Mexico).svg PES logo (Mexico).svg PRI Party (Mexico).svg PVE logo (Mexico).svg PNA Party (Mexico).svg
Independiente (Mexico).png
OtherNoneNot mentioned
Mitofsky[ citation needed ]July 201721.7%16.7%15.9%5.5%3.0%37.2%
MitofskyAugust 201721.2%16.4%14.8%4%3.9%39.7%
Parametría [7] September 201732%23%15%14%16%
Reforma [8] September 201724%31%28%8%
México Elige [9] October 201722.5%36.1%21.8%11.4%8.2%
El Financiero [10] November 201718%24%22%21%15%
El Economista [11] December 201723.1%22.6%21.4%7.4%0.6%24.9%
Parametría [12] January 201832%42%26%12%18%
Arias Consultores [13] January 201818.1%50.1%15.5%6.5%9.8%
SABA [14] Feb 4-12, 201812.3%38.5%10.3%11.3%29%
Revista 32 [15] Feb 15-16, 201818.1%46.2%18.0%5.8%11.8%
Revista 32 [16] Mar 19-23, 201815.9%44.6%17.8%6.6%15.1%
Parametría [17] Mar 23-28, 201825%36%20%7%5%5%2%
Revista 32 [18] April 23-25, 201818.1%46.9%13.6%4.1%17.3%

    By candidates (January–June 2018)

    Historical trend of voting intentions for the candidates for the Mexican presidency in 2018. Tendencia historica de la intencion de voto.png
    Historical trend of voting intentions for the candidates for the Mexican presidency in 2018.
    AgencyDate Obrador Anaya Meade Zavala Rodríguez Other/None
    Parametría [19] January31%19%20%10%2%19%
    SDP Noticias [20] Jan 7-938.1%17.7%26.1%7.9%2.9%7.3%
    Mitofsky [21] January23.6%20.4%18.2%10%
    Focus Asesores [22] [23] January47%11%11%5%2%28%
    Arias Consultores [24] Jan 23-2556.2%14.3%16.3%6.5%2.5%4.1%
    El Universal [25] Jan 19-2532%26%16%4%2%4.1%
    El Financiero [26] Jan 27-3138%27%22%7%3%3%
    Parametría [27] Jan 25-Feb 234%23%18%7%2%16%
    Mendoza Blanco [28] Feb 2-430%26%16%3%2%23%
    SDP Noticias [29] Feb 2-638.4%19.5%25.7%7.2%2.6%6.8%
    Mitofksy [30] Feb 9-1127.1%22.3%18.0%
    Reforma [31] Feb 8-1133%25%14%4%2%22%
    SABA [32] Feb 4-1238.3%12.5%10.3%8.0%1.9%29%
    Parámetro [33] Feb 9-1130.5%23.8%23.3%3.9%2.0%16.5%
    Fox News [34] Feb 9-1140%31%20%9%
    Revista 32 [35] Feb 15-1648.2%16.3%17.8%4.2%2.5%10.9%
    Massive Caller [36] February30.55%24.78%15.4%7.23%2%20.04%
    El Pais [37] March37.8%29.2%23.8%5.7%2.6%
    Parametría [38] Feb 24-Mar 135%21%16%10%5%13%
    Bloomberg [39] March 842.2%27.4%20.6%4%1.6%
    Indemerc [40] March 8-1044.1%15.1%10.9%8.2%2%19.7%
    El Financiero [41] March 9-1442%23%24%7%2%2%
    Arias Consultores [42] March 19-2347.8%14.6%18.1%6.2%13.2%
    Parametría [43] March 23-2838%20%16%13%
    Gii 360 [44] March 30-April 343%19%13%7%18%
    Berumen y Asociados [45] April 3–542%31.1%21.9%5%
    SDP Noticias [46] April 11–1441.9%19.7%22.7%9%2.5%
    Reforma [47] April 12–1548%26%18%5%3%
    Bloomberg [48] April 1547.8%26.6%17.9%5.1%
    SDP Noticias [49] April 25–2841.4%24.7%22.2%4.8%3.1%3.8%
    Revista 32 [50] April 23–2550.9%17.8%13.5%2.2%2.8%13.8%
    La Silla Rota [51] April 25-2845%29%18%5%3%
    Reforma [52] April 26-3048%30%17%3%2%
    Varela y Asociados [53] April 28-May 447.5%33.1%16.2%1.7%1.4%
    El Financiero [54] April 26-May 246%26%20%5%3%
    Ipsos [55] May 11-1543%24%16%2%15%
    SDP Noticias [56] May 18-1942.4%25.8%24.2%0.6%3.3%3.7%
    Eje Central [57] May 21-2249%26%21%4%
    Reforma [58] May 24-2752%26%19%4%
    Parametría [59] May 23-2954%24%17%3%2%
    Varela y Asociados [60] May 30-June 450.6%29.5%17.6%2.2%
    BGC [61] May 31-June 447%29%21%3%
    De Las Heras Demotecnia [62] June 10-1350%25%19%5%1%
    Arias Consultores [63] June 13-1562%19.8%13.7%3.3%
    Reforma [64] June 20-2451%27%19%3%
    BGC [65] June 22-2549%26%21%4%
    El Financiero [66] June 15-2354%21%22%3%
    Presidential electionJuly 153.19%22.28%16.41%0.06%5.23%

    By candidates (April–December 2017)

    PollstersDate Obrador Zavala Chong Mancera Rodríguez Anaya Ávila Valle Nuño Meade OtherNoneNot mentioned
    El FinancieroApril 201729%32%27%8%4%
    El Universal April 201733%27%13%6%4%
    32%16%6%20%
    32%26%6%13%
    GEA-ISAJune 201718%6%4%2%7%5%4%
    Reforma July 201731%26%15%7%1%15%5%
    30%26%14%6%5%1%14%4%
    30%27%14%9%1%14%5%
    32%17%8%17%1%20%5%
    33%17%16%8%1%19%6%
    El FinancieroJuly 201730%28%24%10%8%
    MitofskyAugust 201725.9%19.7%14.8%4.4%4.6%
    24.9%15.4%5.2%3.8%20.5%
    26.3%15.7%4.5%4.9%19.8%
    25.9%18.7%5.1%5%13.6%
    26.2%19.3%5%4.5%12.8%
    25.6%4.9%5.2%20.1%13.1%
    México Elige [9] October 201736.7%14.7%19.6%5.3%2.2%
    Reforma November 201731%8%2%19%17%1%10%12%
    GCE [67] [68] December 201727.8%9.7%6.3%4.2%9.2%21.5%0.3%7.5%13.5%
    Massive Caller [69] December 201727.2%9%9%18.1%20.4%4.3%18.2%

    By political parties

    PollsterDate
    PRI PRI Party (Mexico).svg
    PRI
    PAN PAN (Mexico).svg
    PAN
    PRD PRD logo without border (Mexico).svg
    PRD
    MORENA Morena logo (Mexico).svg
    MORENA
    PT PT Party (Mexico).svg
    PT
    PVEM PVE logo (Mexico).svg
    PVEM
    MC MC Party (Mexico).svg
    MC
    NA PNA Party (Mexico).svg
    NA
    PES Encuentro Social Party (Mexico).png
    PES
    Independiente (Mexico).png
    		OtherNo-oneNot mentioned
    Parametría August 201529%23%9%21%8%5%2%3%
    GEA-ISA March 201633%16%7%7%4%17%18%
    Mitofsky March 201621.5%16.4%10.8%11.7%0.6%1.1%1.8%0.6%0.5%4.3%14%16.7%
    Mitofsky May 201622.3%18.6%8.7%12.1%0.8%1.2%1.9%0.7%0.9%4.6%28.2%
    GEA-ISA June 201628%19%5%11%6%11%21%
    El Financiero June 201629%28%8%19%1%3%2%3%1%6%
    Mitofsky July 201619.620%8.1%12.2%1.1%1.3%1.9%1%1.1%2.8%30.9%
    Reforma August 201622%27%6%18%5%3%11%8%
    GEA-ISA September 201622%23%8%9%7%15%15%
    Parametría September 201627%30%10%21%2%5%1%2%2%3%
    Mitofsky September 201619.5%20.2%7.8%12.1%1.1%1.3%1.6%0.9%1%3.3%31.2%
    El Financiero November 201628%29%11%18%5%
    Reforma December 201622%27%5%22%3%5%11%5%
    Massive Caller January 201712.8%20.48%5.5%21.68%1.6%8.5%5.2%23.9%
    Reforma [ permanent dead link ]January 201717%24%10%27%2%4%10%6%
    El Financiero February 201722%25%9%25%3%3%3%3%1%6%
    Mitofsky February 201713%18.8%5.1%15.9%0.8%1.4%1.7%1.1%0.7%3.0%38.5%
    México Elige February 201712.4%21.0%1.2%36.9%0.2%0.4%3%0.5%0.6%14.5%
    GEA-ISA March 201719%20%7%15%5%17%18%
    El Financiero April 201728%29%10%21%1%3%2%1%1%4%
    Excelsior April 201719%21%8%26%2%24%
    El Universal April 201713%27%6%33%4%
    El Universal April 201713%23%6%24%3%4%4%4%2%17%
    Parametría [12] January 201825%24%5%30%12%18%
    SDP Noticias [29] Feb 2-6, 201820.6%13.6%2.8%36.0%1.1%2.7%3.1%2.4%1.3%11.2%5.4%
    SABA [70] Feb 4-129.4%9.9%1.7%30.4%0.4%0.8%1.6%0.1%8.4%0.6%15.7%16.8%
    Parametría [17] Mar 23-2815%15%5%29%3%2%3%3%1%6%1%2%15%
    Gii 360 [71] March 30-April 3, 201812%14%2%34%1%1%2%1%1%6%26%

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    References

    1. ↑ Loaeza, Soledad (2003). The National Action Party (PAN): From the Fringes of the Political System to the Heart of Change. Christian Democracy in Latin America: Electoral Competition and Regime Conflicts. Stanford University Press. p. 196. ISBN   9780804745987.
    2. ↑ "PAN, PRD y MC avalan Frente pero sin definir sus alcances" . Retrieved September 5, 2017.
    3. ↑ "Se confirma el Frente Opositor: PAN, MC y PRD irán en alianza para 2018". DiarioCambio.com.mx (in European Spanish). Retrieved September 5, 2017.
    4. ↑ "El PAN, el PRD y Movimiento Ciudadano constituirán un frente común para 2018". Expansión (in Mexican Spanish). Retrieved September 5, 2017.
    5. ↑ "Registran Frente Amplio ante el INE". El Universal (in Spanish). September 5, 2017. Retrieved September 5, 2017.
    6. ↑ "The Parties". The Mexico Institute's 2015 Elections Guide. September 17, 2014. Retrieved April 19, 2017.
    7. ↑ "Preferencias Electorales previas al inicio de la elección presidencial". parametria.com.mx. September 2017. Retrieved September 12, 2017.
    8. ↑ "Emerge Frente Ciudadano por México". gruporeforma-blogs.com. September 13, 2017. Retrieved September 14, 2017.
    9. 1 2 "Encuesta Facebook: AMLO, líder; Margarita, puntera en PAN y Frente antes de renunciar". SDPnoticias.com (in European Spanish). October 5, 2017. Retrieved October 8, 2017.
    10. ↑ Moreno, Alejandro (November 17, 2017). "Mancera, a la cabeza en las preferencias del Frente". El Financiero=. Retrieved November 17, 2017.
    11. ↑ Hernández, Leopoldo (December 11, 2017). "Hacia 2018, arranque cerrado a tres fuerzas". El Economista . Retrieved December 12, 2017.
    12. 1 2 "AMLO lidera encuesta entre presidenciales". El Siglo de Durango. January 4, 2018. Retrieved January 8, 2018.
    13. ↑ "Así van los presidenciables – Quinta encuesta". Revista 32. January 26, 2018. Archived from the original on June 14, 2020. Retrieved January 27, 2018.
    14. ↑ "Encuesta Política Nacional" (PDF). Saba Consultores. February 17, 2018.
    15. ↑ "Así van los presidenciables – Sexta encuesta". Revista 32. February 26, 2018. Archived from the original on June 2, 2020.
    16. ↑ "Así van los presidenciables – Séptima encuesta". Revista 32. March 25, 2018. Archived from the original on June 17, 2020.
    17. 1 2 "PREFERENCIA ELECTORAL PARA PRESIDENTE DE LA REPÚBLICA". Parametría. April 2, 2018.
    18. ↑ "Así van los presidenciables – Octava Encuesta". Revista 32. May 1, 2018. Archived from the original on May 17, 2018.
    19. ↑ "AMLO ganaría con 42% de los votos a PRD-PAN-MC; PRI en el tercer lugar: Parametría". Regeneración. January 4, 2018. Retrieved December 15, 2019.
    20. ↑ "AMLO amplía su ventaja". SDP Noticias. January 11, 2018. Retrieved January 11, 2018.
    21. ↑ "López Obrador lidera las encuestas para las presidenciales de México". Economía Hoy. January 17, 2018. Retrieved January 17, 2018.
    22. ↑ "Intención de voto para Presidente de la República". Focus Asesores. January 24, 2018. Retrieved January 27, 2018.
    23. ↑ "Abre AMLO "la puerta" a Gil Zuarth". Focus Asesores. January 25, 2018. Retrieved January 27, 2018.
    24. ↑ "Así van los presidenciables – Quinta encuesta". El Siglo de Durango. January 26, 2018. Archived from the original on June 14, 2020. Retrieved January 28, 2018.
    25. ↑ "AMLO lidera preferencias rumbo a comicios:: encuesta". El Siglo de Durango (in Spanish). January 29, 2018. Retrieved January 29, 2018.
    26. ↑ "AMLO, con más de 10 puntos de ventaja sobre Anaya y Meade". El Financiero (in Spanish). February 6, 2018. Retrieved February 6, 2018.
    27. ↑ "Líder izquierdista mexicano tiene ventaja de dos dígitos en carrera presidencial: encuesta". Reuters (in Spanish). February 7, 2018. Archived from the original on February 7, 2018. Retrieved February 8, 2018.
    28. ↑ "Encuesta de Clima Político Nacional: Reporte Gráfico" (PDF). Mendoza y Blanco (in Spanish). February 14, 2018. Retrieved February 14, 2018.
    29. 1 2 "Encuesta Facebook: AMLO, 38.4%; Meade, 25.7%; Anaya, 19.5%". SDP Noticias (in Spanish). February 9, 2018. Retrieved February 9, 2018.
    30. ↑ "Mexican leftist extends lead in presidential race, poll shows". Reuters. February 14, 2018. Retrieved February 14, 2018.
    31. ↑ "AMLO lidera encuesta del diario Reforma; Anaya acorta distancias". Forbes. February 15, 2018.
    32. ↑ "Encuesta Política Nacional" (PDF). Saba Consultores. February 17, 2018.
    33. ↑ "AMLO encabeza, le sigue Meade y Anaya, según encuesta". Político.mx. February 19, 2018.
    34. ↑ "'Bernie Sanders of Mexico' Leads Country's Latest 2018 Presidential Poll". Fox News . February 19, 2018.
    35. ↑ "Así van los presidenciables – Sexta encuesta". Revista 32 (in Spanish). February 26, 2018. Archived from the original on June 2, 2020.
    36. ↑ "Encuesta virtual sobre aspirantes". Diario de Yucatan (in Spanish). February 27, 2018.
    37. ↑ "Anaya, el candidato mexicano que menos rechazo genera en las encuestas". El Pais (in Spanish). March 2, 2018.
    38. ↑ "AMLO aumenta ventaja sobre Anaya y Meade: encuesta de Parametría". Forbes México (in Spanish). March 7, 2018.
    39. ↑ "Anti-Government Backlash Saps Meade's Support". Bloomberg. March 8, 2018. Archived from the original on March 9, 2018.
    40. ↑ "AMLO con 44.1 de preferencias: encuesta Indemerc". El Imparcial. March 15, 2018.
    41. ↑ "Se despega AMLO; Meade y Anaya pelean el segundo sitio". El Financiero. March 22, 2018.
    42. ↑ "Así van los presidenciables – Séptima Encuesta". Revista 32. March 27, 2018. Archived from the original on June 17, 2020.
    43. ↑ "AMLO amplía ventaja; Anaya y Meade, estancados: encuesta Parametría". Forbes. April 2, 2018.
    44. ↑ "Elecciones presidenciales 2018". Gii 360. April 6, 2018.
    45. ↑ "Elecciones presidenciales 2018". El Universal. April 9, 2018.
    46. ↑ "Encuesta en Facebook: AMLO aumenta su ventaja; Meade sigue en segundo, pero 'Bronco' le resta puntos". SDP Noticias. April 15, 2018.
    47. ↑ "Consolida AMLO ventaja". Reforma. April 18, 2018.
    48. ↑ "AMLO alcanza máximo histórico, según Bloomberg: 47.80%; Meade, Anaya y Margarita retroceden" (in Spanish). Vanguardia. April 18, 2018.
    49. ↑ "Encuesta en Facebook: AMLO, líder; Zavala se desploma y beneficia a Anaya; Meade se mantiene" (in Spanish). SDP Noticias. April 29, 2018.
    50. ↑ "Así van los presidenciables – Octava Encuesta" (in Spanish). SDP Noticias. May 1, 2018. Archived from the original on May 17, 2018.
    51. ↑ "Tras debate, AMLO conserva ventaja clara" (in Spanish). La Silla Rota. May 2, 2018.
    52. ↑ "Mantiene AMLO ventaja; crece Ricardo Anaya" (in Spanish). Reforma. May 2, 2018.
    53. ↑ "7a encuesta presidenciables 2018 AMLO Y ANAYA SUBEN Y PELEAN. MEADE CAE" (in Spanish). Reforma. May 8, 2018.
    54. ↑ "AMLO rebasa con 20 puntos al segundo lugar; lo impulsa el norte" (in Spanish). El Financiero. May 14, 2018.
    55. ↑ "Leftist's lead grows ahead of Mexico presidential vote: poll". Reuters. May 17, 2018.
    56. ↑ "Encuesta en Facebook: Rumbo al segundo debate AMLO se fortalece; Anaya cae y Meade lo empata" (in Spanish). SDP Noticias. May 19, 2018.
    57. ↑ "Anaya pierda cuatro puntos tras el segundo debate" (in Spanish). Eje Central. May 24, 2018.
    58. ↑ "AMLO aventaja 2 a 1 a Ricardo Anaya en encuesta de Reforma". Forbes México (in Spanish). May 30, 2018.
    59. ↑ "AMLO lidera con 54% de preferencias; Anaya baja a 24%, Meade se queda en 17%: Parametría" (in Spanish). Animal Político. May 31, 2018.
    60. ↑ "VIII Encuesta Nacional" (in Spanish). Campaigns and Elections México. June 6, 2018. Archived from the original on June 12, 2018. Retrieved June 6, 2018.
    61. ↑ "Preferencias electorales para la elección de Presidente de la República" (in Spanish). Beltrán, Juárez y Asociados. June 6, 2018.
    62. ↑ "AMLO encabeza encuesta de Demotecnia, le sigue Anaya" (in Spanish). Político.mx. June 19, 2018.
    63. ↑ "Preferencias electorales para la elección de Presidente de la República" (in Spanish). Revista 32. June 16, 2018.
    64. ↑ "AMLO lidera aunque pierde 1 punto, le sigue Anaya: Reforma" (in Spanish). Político.mx. June 27, 2018.
    65. ↑ "Preferencias por candidatos a la Presidencia de la República" (PDF) (in Spanish). BGC. June 27, 2018.
    66. ↑ "Última encuesta de El Financiero: AMLO, 32 puntos arriba del segundo, 54%; Meade 22%; Anaya 21%" (in Spanish). Sinembargo. June 26, 2018.
    67. ↑ "Intención de voto 2018" (PDF). gabinete.mx/. Retrieved December 5, 2017.
    68. ↑ "Meade, en segundo lugar pero sube opinión desfavorable 9%: encuesta GCE". Quadratín México. December 5, 2017. Retrieved December 5, 2017.
    69. ↑ "Meade y Anaya empatados, AMLO encabeza para 2018: encuesta". Político MX. December 4, 2017. Retrieved December 6, 2017.
    70. ↑ "Encuesta Política Nacional" (PDF). Saba Consultores. February 17, 2018.
    71. ↑ "Elecciones presidenciales 2018". Parametría. April 6, 2018.
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