Pre-election pendulum for the 2023 New South Wales state election

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The following is the pre-election pendulum for the 2023 New South Wales state election. It is based on notional margins calculated by the ABC's Antony Green. [1] Members in italics will not contest the election as a candidate for the seat they currently hold or its replacement. However, the current member for Holsworthy Melanie Gibbons will move to contest the seat of Kiama. [2] By-elections were held in some seats during this term of Parliament that changed their margins. See the footnotes for details.

Liberal/National seats (46)
Marginal
East Hills Wendy Lindsay LIB0.1%
Upper Hunter Dave Layzell [lower-alpha 1] NAT0.5% [lower-alpha 2]
Penrith Stuart Ayres LIB0.6%
Goulburn Wendy Tuckerman LIB3.1%
Tweed Geoff Provest NAT5.0%
Winston Hills Mark Taylor LIB5.7%
Fairly safe
Holsworthy Melanie Gibbons [lower-alpha 3] LIB6.0%
Wollondilly Nathaniel Smith LIB6.0% v IND [lower-alpha 4]
Riverstone Kevin Conolly LIB6.2%
Parramatta Geoff Lee LIB6.5%
Oatley Mark Coure LIB6.8%
Camden Peter Sidgreaves LIB7.3%
Ryde Victor Dominello LIB8.9%
Myall Lakes Stephen Bromhead NAT9.3%
Badgerys Creek Tanya Davies LIB9.7%
Safe
South Coast Shelley Hancock LIB10.6%
Coffs Harbour Gurmesh Singh NAT10.8%
North Shore Felicity Wilson LIB11.1% v IND [lower-alpha 5]
Epping Dominic Perrottet LIB11.3%
Monaro Nichole Overall [lower-alpha 6] NAT11.6% [lower-alpha 7]
Kiama Gareth Ward (IND)LIB12.0%
Terrigal Adam Crouch LIB12.3%
Drummoyne John Sidoti (IND)LIB13.6%
Miranda Eleni Petinos LIB14.4%
Clarence Chris Gulaptis NAT14.5%
Manly James Griffin LIB14.6%
Lane Cove Anthony Roberts LIB14.7%
Oxley Melinda Pavey NAT15.4%
Albury Justin Clancy LIB15.9%
Hawkesbury Robyn Preston LIB16.6%
Hornsby Matt Kean LIB16.9%
Bathurst Paul Toole NAT17.9%
Very safe
Dubbo Dugald Saunders NAT18.1%
Wahroonga Alister Henskens LIB19.0%
Cronulla Mark Speakman LIB19.6%
Port Macquarie Leslie Williams (LIB)NAT20.1%
Vaucluse Gabrielle Upton LIB20.6%
Willoughby Tim James [lower-alpha 8] LIB20.7% [lower-alpha 9]
Wakehurst Brad Hazzard LIB21.9%
Pittwater Rob Stokes LIB22.4%
Castle Hill David Elliott [lower-alpha 10] LIB22.4%
Kellyville Ray Williams [lower-alpha 11] LIB23.1%
Davidson Jonathan O'Dea LIB24.8%
Cootamundra Steph Cooke NAT26.6%
Tamworth Kevin Anderson NAT28.0%
Northern Tablelands Adam Marshall NAT33.2%
Labor seats (38)
Marginal
Kogarah Chris Minns ALP0.1%
Leppington new seatALP1.5%
Heathcote Lee Evans (LIB)ALP1.7%
Lismore Janelle Saffin ALP2.0%
Coogee Marjorie O'Neill ALP2.3%
Londonderry Prue Car ALP3.0%
Bega Michael Holland [lower-alpha 12] ALP5.1% [lower-alpha 13]
Strathfield Jason Yat-Sen Li [lower-alpha 14] ALP5.2% [lower-alpha 15]
The Entrance David Mehan ALP5.3%
Port Stephens Kate Washington ALP5.8%
Fairly safe
Gosford Liesl Tesch ALP7.1%
Maroubra Michael Daley ALP8.3%
Prospect Hugh McDermott ALP8.6%
Granville Julia Finn ALP9.4%
Safe
Rockdale Steve Kamper ALP10.0%
Swansea Yasmin Catley ALP10.6%
Wyong David Harris ALP12.9%
Charlestown Jodie Harrison ALP13.1%
Blue Mountains Trish Doyle ALP13.6%
Auburn Lynda Voltz ALP13.7%
Maitland Jenny Aitchison ALP14.7%
Macquarie Fields Anoulack Chanthivong ALP14.9%
Canterbury Sophie Cotsis ALP15.3%
Heffron Ron Hoenig ALP15.3%
Campbelltown Greg Warren ALP16.0%
Blacktown Stephen Bali ALP16.7%
Fairfield Guy Zangari ALP16.8%
Liverpool Paul Lynch ALP17.4%
Newcastle Tim Crakanthorp ALP17.5%
Very safe
Keira Ryan Park ALP18.2%
Shellharbour Anna Watson ALP18.4%
Mount Druitt Edmond Atalla ALP18.5%
Cabramatta Nick Lalich ALP19.3%
Cessnock Clayton Barr ALP19.7%
Bankstown Jihad Dib [lower-alpha 16] ALP20.5%
Summer Hill Jo Haylen ALP21.6%
Wollongong Paul Scully ALP22.9%
Wallsend Sonia Hornery ALP25.8%
Crossbench seats (9)
Marginal
Murray Helen Dalton (IND)SFF2.8% v NAT
Ballina Tamara Smith GRN4.9% v NAT
Fairly safe
Barwon Roy Butler (IND)SFF6.6% v NAT
Safe
Balmain Jamie Parker GRN10.0% v ALP
Newtown Jenny Leong GRN11.4% v ALP
Sydney Alex Greenwich IND11.8% v LIB
Orange Philip Donato (IND)SFF15.2% v NAT
Wagga Wagga Joe McGirr IND15.5% v NAT
Very safe
Lake Macquarie Greg Piper IND23.2% v ALP

Notes

  1. ↑ Dave Layzell was elected to the district of Upper Hunter in the 2021 by-election after the resignation of Michael Johnsen.
  2. ↑ While the redistributed margin based on 2019 results is National 0.5%, the result of the 2021 by-election is a margin of 5.8% for The Nationals.
  3. ↑ Melanie Gibbons will contest the seat of Kiama.
  4. ↑ The alternative two-party-preferred margin after redistribution is LIB 14.2% v ALP.
  5. ↑ The alternative two-party-preferred margin based on 2019 results is LIB 17.8% v ALP.
  6. ↑ Nichole Overall was elected to the district of Monaro in the 2022 by-election after the resignation of John Barilaro.
  7. ↑ While the margin based on 2019 results is 11.6%, with Monaro's boundaries unchanged by the redistribution, the result of the 2022 by-election is a margin of 5.2% for the Nationals.
  8. ↑ Tim James was elected to the district of Willoughby in the 2022 by-election after the resignation of Gladys Berejiklian.
  9. ↑ While the redistributed two-party-preferred margin based on 2019 results would be Liberal 20.7%, the result of the 2022 by-election conducted in the old boundaries was a margin of 3.3% for the Liberals versus independent Larissa Penn.
  10. ↑ The new Castle Hill largely replaces Elliott's seat of Baulkham Hills. A new seat named Kellyville has been created to replace the seat that formerly held the name of Castle Hill.
  11. ↑ Kellyville largely replaces Williams's seat of Castle Hill. A different seat named Castle Hill has been created to replace Baulkham Hills.
  12. ↑ Michael Holland was elected to the district of Bega in the February 2022 by-election after the resignation of Andrew Constance.
  13. ↑ The margin used in the pendulum is Labor’s winning margin from the February 2022 by-election, which the Labor Party won with a margin of 5.1%. The margin based on 2019 election results is Liberal 6.9%. Bega's boundaries were unchanged by the redistribution.
  14. ↑ Jason Yat-Sen Li was elected to the district of Strathfield in the 2022 by-election after the resignation of Jodi McKay.
  15. ↑ While the redistributed margin based on 2019 results is Labor 5.2%, the result of the 2022 by-election is a margin of 5.8% for the Labor Party.
  16. ↑ Bankstown largely replaces Dib's seat of Lakemba. The seat that formerly held the name of Bankstown was abolished.

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References

  1. ↑ Green, Antony (2023-01-08). "Electoral Pendulum for the 2023 NSW Election – Antony Green's Election Blog" . Retrieved 2023-01-22.
  2. ↑ Smith, Alexandra; Cormack, Lucy (2023-03-07). "Dumped Liberal MP Gibbons set to take on Ward in shock move". The Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 2023-03-08.
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