Roy Spencer (meteorologist)

Last updated

Roy W. Spencer
Aqua Celebrates Ten Years.jpg
Born (1955-12-20) December 20, 1955 (age 67)
NationalityAmerican
Alma mater University of Michigan (BS)
University of Wisconsin–Madison (MS, PhD)
Awards NASA Exceptional Scientific Achievement Medal (1991),
AMS Special Award (1996)
Scientific career
Fields Meteorology
Institutions NASA,
University of Alabama in Huntsville
Thesis A case study of African wave structure and energetics during Atlantic transit  (1981)
Doctoral advisor Verner E. Suomi
Website Official website

Roy Warren Spencer (born December 20, 1955) [1] is an American meteorologist. [2] He is a principal research scientist at the University of Alabama in Huntsville, and the U.S. Science Team leader for the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E) on NASA's Aqua satellite. [3] [4] He has served as senior scientist for climate studies at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center. [3] [4] He is known for his satellite-based temperature monitoring work, for which he was awarded the American Meteorological Society's Special Award. [4] Spencer disagrees with the scientific consensus that most global warming in the past 50 years is the result of human activity, instead believing that anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions have caused some warming, but that influence is small compared to natural variations in global average cloud cover.

Contents

Education and career

Spencer received a BS in atmospheric sciences from the University of Michigan in 1978 and his MS and PhD in meteorology from the University of Wisconsin–Madison in 1980 and 1982. [3] His doctoral thesis was titled, A case study of African wave structure and energetics during Atlantic transit. [5]

After receiving his PhD in 1982, Spencer worked for two years as a research scientist in the Space Science and Engineering Center at the University of Wisconsin–Madison. [3] He then joined NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center as a visiting scientist in 1984, [4] where he later became senior scientist for climate studies. After leaving NASA in 2001, Spencer has been a principal research scientist at the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH). As well as his position at UAH, Spencer is currently the U.S. Science Team leader for the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E) on NASA's Aqua satellite, a position he has held since 1994. [3]

In 2001, he designed an algorithm to detect tropical cyclones and estimate their maximum sustained wind speed using the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU). [6] [7]

Spencer has been a member of several science teams: the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Space Station Accommodations Analysis Study Team, Science Steering Group for TRMM, TOVS Pathfinder Working Group, NASA Headquarters Earth Science and Applications Advisory Subcommittee, and two National Research Council (NRC) study panels. [3] He is on the board of directors of the George C. Marshall Institute, [8] and on the board of advisors of the Cornwall Alliance for the Stewardship of Creation. [9]

Spencer's research work is funded by NASA, NOAA, DOE, and the DOT. [4] He also received money from Peabody Energy. [10]

Peer-reviewed articles on climate change

Negative cloud feedback

In 2007, Spencer and others published a paper in Geophysical Research Letters regarding negative cloud feedback in the tropics that potentially supports Richard Lindzen's Iris hypothesis, which proposes that as the tropical atmosphere warms, cirrus clouds decrease, allowing infrared heat to escape from the atmosphere to outer space. [11] [12] Spencer stated, "To give an idea of how strong this enhanced cooling mechanism is, if it was operating on global warming, it would reduce estimates of future warming by over 75 percent. [...] Right now, all climate models predict that clouds will amplify warming. I'm betting that if the climate models' 'clouds' were made to behave the way we see these clouds behave in nature, it would substantially reduce the amount of climate change the models predict for the coming decades." [12] [13]

Cloud formation and temperature change

In 2008, Spencer and William Braswell published a paper in the Journal of Climate which suggests that natural variations in how clouds form could actually be causing temperature changes, rather than the other way around, and could also lead to overestimates of how sensitive the Earth's climate is to greenhouse gas emissions. [14] [15] Spencer stated, "Our paper is an important step toward validating a gut instinct that many meteorologists like myself have had over the years, [...] that the climate system is dominated by stabilizing processes, rather than destabilizing processes – that is, negative feedback rather than positive feedback." [16]

Energy lost to space as compared to climate models

In 2011, Spencer and Braswell published a paper in Remote Sensing concluding that more energy is radiated back to space and released earlier than previously thought. [17] [18] Spencer stated, "The satellite observations suggest there is much more energy lost to space during and after warming than the climate models show. There is a huge discrepancy between the data and the forecasts that is especially big over the oceans." [18] [19] [20]

The paper was criticized by climate scientists. [21] [22] Kerry Emanuel of MIT, said this work was cautious and limited mostly to pointing out problems with forecasting heat feedback. [21]

The editor-in-chief of Remote Sensing, Wolfgang Wagner, later resigned over publication of Spencer and Braswell (2011), [23] stating, "From a purely formal point of view, there were no errors with the review process. [...] the problem I see with the paper by Spencer and Braswell is not that it declared a minority view ...but that it essentially ignored the scientific arguments of its opponents. This latter point was missed in the review process, explaining why I perceive this paper to be fundamentally flawed and therefore wrongly accepted by the journal." [24] Wagner added he, "would also like to personally protest against how the authors and like-minded climate skeptics have much exaggerated the paper's conclusions in public statements". [23] [24]

Andrew Dessler later published a paper opposing the claims of Spencer and Braswell (2011) in Geophysical Research Letters. [25] He stated, among other things:

First, [they] analyzed 14 models, but they plotted only six models and the particular observational data set that provided maximum support for their hypothesis. Plotting all of the models and all of the data provide a much different conclusion.

Views

Climate change

Spencer has published two books on climate change: In 2008, Climate Confusion: How Global Warming Hysteria Leads to Bad Science, Pandering Politicians and Misguided Policies that Hurt the Poor, [26] and in 2010, The Great Global Warming Blunder: How Mother Nature Fooled the World's Top Climate Scientists. [27] [28]

He believes that most climate change is natural in origin, the result of long-term changes in the Earth's albedo and that anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions have caused some warming, but that its warming influence is small compared to natural, internal, chaotic fluctuations in global average cloud cover. [29] This view contradicts the scientific consensus that "most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities". [30]

In February 2014 Spencer posted on his blog that he was going to start referring to those who referred to those questioning the mainstream view of global warming (such as Spencer himself) as "climate change deniers" as "global warming Nazis", contending that "...these people are supporting policies that will kill far more people than the Nazis ever did." [31] [32] The Anti-Defamation League responded with a statement condemning Spencer's comparison. Shelley Rose, the ADL's Southeast Interim Regional Director, argued that the comparison of global warming advocates to Nazis was "outrageous and deeply offensive," and "This analogy is just the latest example of a troubling epidemic of comparisons to Hitler and the Holocaust." [33]

Intelligent design

Spencer believes in the pseudoscience of intelligent design which was criticized by Phil Plait, in Slate as advocating "warmed-over creationism". [34] Spencer's views on the matter were used as an example in an exploration by the Christian Science Monitor as a possible connection between climate change denial and creationism. [35]

Awards

See also

Selected publications

Articles

Books

Peer-reviewed papers

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Global warming controversy</span> Political debate over global warming

The global warming controversy concerns the public debate over whether global warming is occurring, how much has occurred in modern times, what has caused it, what its effects will be, whether any action can or should be taken to curb it, and if so what that action should be. In the scientific literature, there is a very strong consensus that global surface temperatures have increased in recent decades and that the trend is caused by human-induced emissions of greenhouse gases. No scientific body of national or international standing disagrees with this view, though a few organizations with members in extractive industries hold non-committal positions, and some have tried to persuade the public that climate change is not happening, or if the climate is changing it is not because of human influence, attempting to sow doubt in the scientific consensus.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Cloud feedback</span> Type of climate change feedback mechanism

Cloud feedback is a type of climate change feedback that has been difficult to quantify in contemporary climate models. It can affect the magnitude of internally generated climate variability or they can affect the magnitude of climate change resulting from external radiative forcings. Cloud representations vary among global climate models, and small changes in cloud cover have a large impact on the climate.

Richard Siegmund Lindzen is an American atmospheric physicist known for his work in the dynamics of the middle atmosphere, atmospheric tides, and ozone photochemistry. He is the author of more than 200 scientific papers. From 1972 to 1982, he served as the Gordon McKay Professor of Dynamic Meteorology at Harvard University. In 1983, he was appointed as the Alfred P. Sloan Professor of Meteorology at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, where he would remain until his retirement in 2013. Lindzen has disputed the scientific consensus on climate change and criticizes what he has called "climate alarmism".

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Global cooling</span> Discredited 1970s hypothesis of imminent cooling of the Earth

Global cooling was a conjecture, especially during the 1970s, of imminent cooling of the Earth culminating in a period of extensive glaciation, due to the cooling effects of aerosols or orbital forcing. Some press reports in the 1970s speculated about continued cooling; these did not accurately reflect the scientific literature of the time, which was generally more concerned with warming from an enhanced greenhouse effect.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Radiative forcing</span> Difference between solar irradiance absorbed by the Earth and energy radiated back to space

Radiative forcing is the change in energy flux in the atmosphere caused by natural or anthropogenic factors of climate change as measured in watts per meter squared. It is a scientific concept used to quantify and compare the external drivers of change to Earth's energy balance. These external drivers are distinguished from climate feedbacks and internal variability, which also influence the direction and magnitude of imbalance.

John Raymond Christy is a climate scientist at the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH) whose chief interests are satellite remote sensing of global climate and global climate change. He is best known, jointly with Roy Spencer, for the first successful development of a satellite temperature record.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">James Hansen</span> American physicist

James Edward Hansen is an American adjunct professor directing the Program on Climate Science, Awareness and Solutions of the Earth Institute at Columbia University. He is best known for his research in climatology, his 1988 Congressional testimony on climate change that helped raise broad awareness of global warming, and his advocacy of action to avoid dangerous climate change. In recent years, he has become a climate activist to mitigate the effects of global warming, on a few occasions leading to his arrest.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Earth's energy budget</span> Accounting of the energy flows which determine Earths surface temperature and drive its climate

Earth's energy budget accounts for the balance between the energy that Earth receives from the Sun and the energy the Earth loses back into outer space. Smaller energy sources, such as Earth's internal heat, are taken into consideration, but make a tiny contribution compared to solar energy. The energy budget also accounts for how energy moves through the climate system. Because the Sun heats the equatorial tropics more than the polar regions, received solar irradiance is unevenly distributed. As the energy seeks equilibrium across the planet, it drives interactions in Earth's climate system, i.e., Earth's water, ice, atmosphere, rocky crust, and all living things. The result is Earth's climate.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Climate sensitivity</span> Change in Earths temperature caused by changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations

Climate sensitivity is a measure of how much Earth's surface will warm for a doubling in the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. In technical terms, climate sensitivity is the average change in global mean surface temperature in response to a radiative forcing, which drives a difference between Earth's incoming and outgoing energy. Climate sensitivity is a key measure in climate science, and a focus area for climate scientists, who want to understand the ultimate consequences of anthropogenic global warming.

The iris hypothesis is a hypothesis proposed by Richard Lindzen et al. in 2001 that suggested increased sea surface temperature in the tropics would result in reduced cirrus clouds and thus more infrared radiation leakage from Earth's atmosphere. His study of observed changes in cloud coverage and modeled effects on infrared radiation released to space as a result supported the hypothesis. This suggested infrared radiation leakage was hypothesized to be a negative feedback in which an initial warming would result in an overall cooling of the surface.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Andrew Dessler</span> Climate scientist (born 1964)

Andrew Emory Dessler is a climate scientist. He is Professor of Atmospheric Sciences and holder of the Reta A. Haynes Chair in Geoscience at Texas A&M University. He is also the Director of the Texas Center for Climate Studies. His research subject areas include climate impacts, global climate physics, atmospheric chemistry, climate change and climate change policy.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Antarctica cooling controversy</span> Part of the public debate in the global warming controversy

The Antarctica cooling controversy was the result of an apparent contradiction in the observed cooling behavior of Antarctica between 1966 and 2000, which became part of the public debate in the global warming controversy, particularly between advocacy groups of both sides in the public arena including politicians, as well as the popular media. In his novel State of Fear, Michael Crichton asserted that the Antarctic data contradicted global warming. The few scientists who have commented on the supposed controversy state that there is no contradiction, while the author of the paper whose work inspired Crichton's remarks has said that Crichton misused his results. There is no similar controversy within the scientific community, as the small observed changes in Antarctica are consistent with the small changes predicted by climate models, and because the overall trend since comprehensive observations began is now known to be one of warming.

Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) is a private research company founded in 1974 by Frank Wentz. It processes microwave data from a variety of NASA satellites. Most of their research is supported by the Earth Science Enterprise program. The company is based in Santa Rosa, California.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Climate change feedback</span> Feedback related to climate change

Climate change feedbacks are effects of global warming that amplify or diminish the effect of forces that initially cause the warming. Positive feedbacks enhance global warming while negative feedbacks weaken it. Feedbacks are important in the understanding of climate change because they play an important part in determining the sensitivity of the climate to warming forces. Climate forcings and feedbacks together determine how much and how fast the climate changes. Large positive feedbacks can lead to tipping points—abrupt or irreversible changes in the climate system—depending upon the rate and magnitude of the climate change.

Frank Wentz is the CEO and director of Remote Sensing Systems, a company he founded in 1974, which specializes in satellite microwave remote sensing research. Together with Carl Mears, he is best known for developing a satellite temperature record from MSU and AMSU. Intercomparison of this record with the earlier UAH satellite temperature record, developed by John Christy and Roy Spencer, revealed deficiencies in the earlier work; specifically, the warming trend in the RSS version is larger than the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH) one. From 1978 to 1982, Wentz was a member of NASA's SeaSat Experiment Team involved in the development of physically based retrieval methods for microwave scatterometers and radiometers. He has also investigated the effect of climate change on satellite-derived evaporation, precipitation and surface wind values. His findings are different from most climate change model predictions.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Microwave Sounding Unit temperature measurements</span>

Microwave Sounding Unit temperature measurements refers to temperature measurement using the Microwave Sounding Unit instrument and is one of several methods of measuring Earth atmospheric temperature from satellites. Microwave measurements have been obtained from the troposphere since 1979, when they were included within NOAA weather satellites, starting with TIROS-N. By comparison, the usable balloon (radiosonde) record begins in 1958 but has less geographic coverage and is less uniform.

The UAH satellite temperature dataset, developed at the University of Alabama in Huntsville, infers the temperature of various atmospheric layers from satellite measurements of the oxygen radiance in the microwave band, using Microwave Sounding Unit temperature measurements.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Josh Willis</span>

Joshua K. Willis is an oceanographer at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory. His area of expertise is current sea level rise, as well as measuring ocean temperatures. When sea level fell from 2010 to 2011, Willis stated that this was due to an unusually large La Niña transferring more rainfall over land rather than over the ocean as usually happens. In addition, Willis is the project scientist for Jason-3.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Solar activity and climate</span> Field of scientific study

Patterns of solar irradiance and solar variation have been a main driver of climate change over the millions to billions of years of the geologic time scale.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Fixed anvil temperature hypothesis</span> Idea that the temperature at the top of anvil clouds does not depend on Earth surface temperature

Fixed anvil temperature hypothesis is a physical hypothesis that describes the response of cloud radiative properties to rising surface temperatures. It presumes that the temperature at which radiation is emitted by anvil clouds is constrained by radiative processes and thus does not change in response to surface warming. Since the amount of radiation emitted by clouds is a function of their temperature, it implies that it does not increase with surface warming and thus a warmer surface does not increase radiation emissions by cloud tops. The mechanism has been identified both in climate models and observations of cloud behaviour, it affects how much the world heats up for each extra tonne of greenhouse gas in the atmosphere. However, some evidence suggests that it may be more correctly formulated as decreased anvil warming rather than no anvil warming.

References

  1. "ISNI 0000000122132141". isni.org. Retrieved June 21, 2016.
  2. Fong, Jocelyn (January 27, 2011). "Fox Tries To Debunk Global Warming, Fails Miserably". Media Matters for America . Retrieved March 25, 2014.
  3. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 "Aqua Project Science". NASA. Archived from the original on February 16, 2013. Retrieved August 27, 2012.
  4. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Spencer, Roy W. (March 19, 2007). "STATEMENT TO THE COMMITTEE" (PDF). United States House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform. Archived from the original (PDF) on March 28, 2007. Retrieved March 7, 2007.
  5. Spencer, Roy Warren (1981). "A case study of African wave structure and energetics during Atlantic transit". University of Wisconsin–Madison. Bibcode:1981PhDT.......218S. OCLC   8338410.{{cite journal}}: Cite journal requires |journal= (help)
  6. "Detecting Tropical Cyclones Using AMSU". NASA. Archived from the original on August 6, 2007. Retrieved August 27, 2012.
  7. Spencer, Roy W.; William D. Braswell (2001). "Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Monitoring with AMSU-A: Estimation of Maximum Sustained Wind Speeds". Monthly Weather Review . 129 (6): 1518–1532. Bibcode:2001MWRv..129.1518S. doi: 10.1175/1520-0493(2001)129<1518:ATCMWA>2.0.CO;2 .
  8. "The Marshall Institute – Staff". George C. Marshall Institute. Archived from the original on July 12, 2012. Retrieved August 27, 2012.
  9. "Cornwall Alliance Board of Advisors". Cornwall Alliance. Archived from the original on April 28, 2013. Retrieved April 3, 2013.
  10. "Big Coal Funded This Prominent Climate Change Denier, Docs Reveal". HuffPost. June 14, 2016. Retrieved July 18, 2023.
  11. Spencer, Roy W.; Braswell, William D.; Christy, John R.; Hnilo, Justin (2007). "Cloud and radiation budget changes associated with tropical intraseasonal oscillations" (PDF). Geophysical Research Letters . 34 (15): L15707. Bibcode:2007GeoRL..3415707S. doi: 10.1029/2007GL029698 .
  12. 1 2 Milloy, Study (November 1, 2007). "Clouds Mitigate Global Warming, New Evidence Shows". Heartland Institute. Archived from the original on February 2, 2014. Retrieved August 27, 2012.
  13. "Cirrus disappearance: Warming might thin heat-trapping clouds" (Press release). University of Alabama in Huntsville. August 9, 2007. Archived from the original on July 16, 2011. Retrieved August 27, 2012.
  14. Spencer, Roy W.; William D. Braswell (2008). "Potential Biases in Feedback Diagnosis from Observational Data: A Simple Model Demonstration" (PDF). Journal of Climate . 21 (21): 5624–5628. Bibcode:2008JCli...21.5624S. doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2253.1 . Retrieved August 29, 2012.
  15. Rice, Doyle (June 18, 2008). "Global warming forecast: Partly cloudy". USA Today . Retrieved August 29, 2012.
  16. "Has global warming research misinterpreted cloud behavior?". PhysOrg. June 8, 2008. Retrieved August 29, 2012.
  17. Spencer, Roy; William Braswell (2011). "On the Misdiagnosis of Climate Feedbacks from Variations in Earth's Radiant Energy Balance". Remote Sensing. 3 (8): 1603–1613. Bibcode:2011RemS....3.1603S. doi: 10.3390/rs3081603 .
  18. 1 2 Orlowski, Andrew (July 29, 2011). "'Missing heat': Is global warmth vanishing into space?". The Register. Retrieved August 29, 2012.
  19. "Data contradict climate model predictions". UPI . July 29, 2011. Retrieved August 30, 2012.
  20. Horton, Daniel (July 29, 2011). "Climate models make too hot forecasts of global warming". PhysOrg. Retrieved August 30, 2012.
  21. 1 2 Borenstein, Seth (July 29, 2011). "Skeptic's small cloud study renews climate rancor". Associated Press. Archived from the original on January 30, 2013. Retrieved August 29, 2012.
  22. Black, Richard (September 2, 2011). "Journal editor resigns over 'problematic' climate paper". BBC News . Retrieved August 29, 2012.
  23. 1 2 Hickman, Leo (February 9, 2011). "Journal editor resigns over 'flawed' paper co-authored by climate sceptic". The Guardian . Retrieved August 27, 2012.
  24. 1 2 Wagner, Wolfgang (2011). "Taking Responsibility on Publishing the Controversial Paper "On the Misdiagnosis of Surface Temperature Feedbacks from Variations in Earth's Radiant Energy Balance" by Spencer and Braswell, Remote Sens. 2011, 3(8), 1603-1613". Remote Sensing. 3 (9): 2002–2004. Bibcode:2011RemS....3.2002W. doi: 10.3390/rs3092002 .
  25. Dessler, Andrew E. (2011). "Cloud variations and the Earth's energy budget" (PDF). Geophysical Research Letters . 38 (19): n/a. Bibcode:2011GeoRL..3819701D. CiteSeerX   10.1.1.362.5742 . doi:10.1029/2011GL049236. S2CID   17463106. Archived from the original (PDF) on September 29, 2011. Retrieved September 7, 2011.
  26. Climate Confusion
  27. Bickmore, Barry (February 27, 2011). "Roy Spencer's Great Blunder, Part 1". Skeptical Science.
  28. Ghan, Steve (April 28, 2011). "Review of Spencer's ‘Great Global Warming Blunder’". RealClimate.
  29. "Interview With A Global Warming Skeptic: Dr. Roy Spencer" (Interview). Interviewed by Cameron J. English. Science 2.0. May 13, 2010.
  30. "Climate Change 2001: Working Group I: The Scientific Basis" Archived June 1, 2007, at the Wayback Machine . GRID-Arendal, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 2001. Retrieved December 27, 2016.
  31. Spencer, Roy W. (February 20, 2014). "Time to push back against the global warming Nazis". Drroyspencer.com. Retrieved February 21, 2014.
  32. Abrams, Lindsay (February 21, 2014). "People who call climate deniers "climate deniers" should be called "Global Warming Nazis," says climate denier". Salon . Retrieved February 21, 2014.
  33. Gattis, Paul (February 26, 2014). "UAH climate expert Roy Spencer calls critics 'global warming Nazis'; Anti-Defamation League objects". The Birmingham News . Retrieved February 28, 2014.
  34. Plait, Phil (July 29, 2011). "No, new data does not "blow a gaping hole in global warming alarmism"". Slate. Retrieved February 8, 2023.
  35. "Are climate change deniers like creationists?". Christian Science Monitor. August 28, 2009. Retrieved July 21, 2022.
  36. Horack, John; Dooling, Dave (January 1996). "SSL 1996 Annual Report – Earth Science". NASA.