Scientific wager

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A scientific wager is a wager whose outcome is settled by scientific method. It typically consists of an offer to pay a certain sum of money on the scientific proof or disproof of some currently-uncertain statement. Some wagers have specific date restrictions for collection, but many are open. Wagers occasionally exert a powerful galvanizing effect on society and the scientific community.

Contents

Notable scientists who have made scientific wagers include Stephen Hawking and Richard Feynman. Stanford Linear Accelerator has an open book containing about 35 bets in particle physics dating back to 1980; many are still unresolved.

Notable scientific wagers

See also

Footnotes

  1. 1 2 3 United Kingdom Gross Domestic Product deflator figures follow the MeasuringWorth "consistent series" supplied in Thomas, Ryland; Williamson, Samuel H. (2018). "What Was the U.K. GDP Then?". MeasuringWorth . Retrieved February 2, 2020.
  2. Stephen Hawking (1997). Black Holes (VHS). New River Media.
  3. 1 2 3 4 5 6 1634–1699: McCusker, J. J. (1997). How Much Is That in Real Money? A Historical Price Index for Use as a Deflator of Money Values in the Economy of the United States: Addenda et Corrigenda (PDF). American Antiquarian Society. 1700–1799: McCusker, J. J. (1992). How Much Is That in Real Money? A Historical Price Index for Use as a Deflator of Money Values in the Economy of the United States (PDF). American Antiquarian Society. 1800–present: Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. "Consumer Price Index (estimate) 1800–" . Retrieved February 29, 2024.
  4. Capri, Anton Z (2007). From Quanta to Quarks: More Anecdotal History of Physics. Hackensack, NJ: World Scientific. p. 139. ISBN   978-981-270-916-5.
  5. 1 2 "Supersymmetry Bet Settled With Cognac". Quantamagazine. 22 August 2016.
  6. Fleming, Nic (18 October 2016). "Scientists up stakes in bet on whether humans will live to 150". Nature. doi:10.1038/nature.2016.20818. S2CID   132452686.
  7. Giles, Jim (2002). "Wanna bet?". Nature. 420 (6914): 354–355. doi: 10.1038/420354a . ISSN   0028-0836. PMID   12459753.
  8. Pennisi, Elizabeth (2003). "Bioinformatics: Gene Counters Struggle to Get the Right Answer". Science. 301 (5636): 1040–1041. doi:10.1126/science.301.5636.1040. ISSN   0036-8075. PMID   12933991. S2CID   5227212.
  9. Pearson, Helen (2003). "Geneticists play the numbers game in vain". Nature. 423 (6940): 576. Bibcode:2003Natur.423..576P. doi: 10.1038/423576a . ISSN   0028-0836. PMID   12789304.
  10. 1 2 Johnston, Louis; Williamson, Samuel H. (2023). "What Was the U.S. GDP Then?". MeasuringWorth . Retrieved November 30, 2023. United States Gross Domestic Product deflator figures follow the MeasuringWorth series.
  11. Giles, Jim (2005). "Climate sceptics place bets on world cooling down". Nature . 436 (7053): 897. Bibcode:2005Natur.436..897G. doi: 10.1038/436897a . PMID   16107801.
  12. Mark Kaufman (19 October 2018). "This scientist keeps winning money from people who bet against climate change". Yahoo . Retrieved 2019-07-09.
  13. Ronald Bailey (8 June 2005). "Reason Magazine – Betting on Climate Change". Reason.com. Retrieved 29 August 2010.
  14. Annan, James (9 June 2005). "Betting Summary". James' Empty Blog. Retrieved 13 April 2007.
  15. "Yet more betting on climate with World Climate Report". James' Empty Blog. 24 May 2005. Retrieved 30 December 2008.
  16. "More or Less, High Speed 2 and Executive Pay". BBC. 2011-01-13. Retrieved 2012-01-13. Tim Harford ... resolves a four year-old bet on climate change between climate scientist James Annan and astrophysicist David Whitehouse
  17. Adam, David (19 August 2005). "Climate change sceptics bet $10,000 on cooler world". London: Guardian. Retrieved 13 April 2007.
  18. A. G. Lisi (2009-08-08). "Science Pond" . Retrieved 2009-12-13.[ permanent dead link ]
  19. "Surfer physicist wins superparticle bet with Nobel laureate" . Retrieved 2016-08-22.
  20. Interview with the BBC on discovery of the Higgs Boson
  21. "Betting on the Future of Quantum Gravity". 14 March 2014.
  22. "Quantum Computing: a new record" (PDF). Retrieved 20 April 2023.
  23. "$2050 that no quantum computer will break RSA2048 before 2050. Any takers?". NIST Post-Quantum Cryptography Mailing List. Retrieved 20 April 2023.
  24. Muller, Derek Alexander; Kusenko, Alexander (9 June 2021). "Downwind sailing wager agreement". Google Docs. Retrieved 2021-07-01.
  25. Kusenko, Alexander (22 June 2021). "Discussion of the propeller-assisted straight-downwind land sailing faster than wind". Google Docs. Retrieved 2021-07-01.
  26. Woodward, Aylin (Jul 28, 2021). "A YouTuber bet a physicist $10,000 that a wind-powered vehicle could travel twice as fast as the wind itself — and won". Business Insider. Retrieved 14 September 2021.

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