Statistics of Deadly Quarrels

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Statistics of Deadly Quarrels
AuthorLewis Fry Richardson
LanguageEnglish
Subject Freedom
PublisherBoxwood Press
Publication date
1960
Media typePrint
Pages373
OCLC 606099616

Statistics of Deadly Quarrels is a 1960 book by English mathematician and physicist Lewis Fry Richardson 11 October 1881 - 30 September 1953 published by Boxwood Press. The book is a mathematical and social science study on the origins of war; topics that informed much of Richardson's research throughout his life. [1] [2] [3]

Contents

The book received mixed reviews in academia, with overall critical consensus that the works therein are important pioneering endeavors. [4] [2] [5]

Background

The book can be seen as a follow-up to Richardson's book Arms and Insecurity (1949) with a number of reviewers commenting on both books, treating them as a related set. [2] [5] It was published posthumously, based on published and unpublished works of Richardson, and was edited by American political scientists Quincy Wright and C. C. Lienau. [6] [1] [2] [5] [3]

Contents

In Statistics of Deadly Quarrels Richardson presented data on most conflicts, in particular, wars, from AD 1820 to 1949. [7] [8] He hypothesized a base 10 logarithmic scale for conflicts (not just wars but at the bottom of the scale, even simple homicides). He illustrated the fact that there are many more small fights, in which only a few people die, than large ones that kill many. While no conflict's size can be predicted beforehand and it is impossible to give an upper limit to the series, overall they do form a Poisson distribution. [7] [9]

Richardson also attempted to correlate factors such as economics, language, and religion with the causes of war. Most proved insignificant, except religion; data indicated that countries with differing religions are more likely to engage in hostilities. [7] [8] [9] Some of his findings suggested that Christian nations participated in an above-average number of hostilities, particularly against Islamic nations; [7] and that Spanish speakers tended to war against one another more than other language speakers, while Chinese speakers fought against one another less than expected. (Here Richardson criticizes individualism and praises collectivism.) [4] There are also suggestions that countries under similar governments are less likely to fight one another (see also democratic peace theory [10] ), and that fighting is "infectious". [3] [9] The neighbors of belligerent countries are likely to be involved. Nationalism is shown to reduce the chances of civil wars while increasing the chances of international warfare. [3] [9] The question whether world government might pacify the world the author leaves undefined: "There are arguments both ways." Revolts and civil wars remain possible. National propaganda pacifies the nation by directing the hates of the population outwards but the world state, being world-wide, cannot be pacified in this manner. [11]

Economic factors explained only 10 percent of the causes, which contradicts the expectations from the Marxist theory, although this interpretation has been subject to criticism, as one of the reviewers noted that arguably Richardson's data can be taken to show that economic factors contributed to two-thirds of the causes. [4] [9]

Richardson's data also suggested that the larger the war, the more exponentially deadly it would be; an observation which has been considered a warning against World War III. [7]

Reception

The book received mixed reviews in academia, with many reviewers noting that Richardson's book, or books, can be debated and criticized, but are arguably an important pioneering endeavor. [4] [2] [5] David Gold reviewing the book for the American Sociological Review in 1962 concluded that "one cannot help but be impressed by [Richardson's] bold imagination. The heuristic value of this work can prove to be great. Nevertheless, this work is science in the most superficial state." [8]

Among the more positive takes, writing for Science in 1960, Paul Kecskemeti  [ hu ] called it "monumental" and "an important landmark" in the quest to develop mathematical models encompassing complex social situations. [9] Sociologist Philip C. Sagi in his 1961 review of the book for the Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science called it a valuable addition to the sociology of conflict. [1] The same year, an anonymous reviewer for the Journal of the American Statistical Association noted that the volumes "establish Richardson as an important precursor.... in the mathematical analysis of conflict". [12] A year later, Ian Sutherland in the Journal of the Royal Statistical Society praised the book as a "remarkable pioneering achievement in a field which many would have regarded as not amenable to mathematical treatment" and "a comprehensive and highly ingenious descriptive analysis of past wars". [13]

On the other hand, in 1962, American sociologist Amitai Etzioni in the American Journal of Sociology was rather critical of the work, calling it a "poor" use of mathematical models in sociology. [3]

See also

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References

  1. 1 2 3 Sagi, Philip C. (July 1961). "LEWIS F. RICHARDSON. Statistics of Deadly Quarrels. Edited by Quincy Wright and C. C. Lienau. Pp. xxv, 307. Chicago: Quadrangle Books, 1960. $12.50". The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science. 336 (1): 209. doi:10.1177/000271626133600166. ISSN   0002-7162. S2CID   145274420.
  2. 1 2 3 4 5 Bull, Hedley (July 1961). "Arms and Insecurity: A Mathematical Study of the Causes and Origins of War and Statistics of Deadly Quarrels". International Affairs. 37 (3): 350. doi:10.2307/2610948. ISSN   1468-2346. JSTOR   2610948.
  3. 1 2 3 4 5 Etzioni, Amitai (1962). "Review of Arms and Insecurity.; Statistics of Deadly Quarrels., Lewis F. Richardson". American Journal of Sociology. 67 (4): 464–466. doi:10.1086/223172. ISSN   0002-9602. JSTOR   2775148.
  4. 1 2 3 4 Eckhardt, William (1986). "Review of Statistics of Deadly Quarrels". Peace Research. 18 (1): 36–39. ISSN   0008-4697. JSTOR   23609715.
  5. 1 2 3 4 Moses, Lincoln E. (December 1961). "Discussions and Reviews : A review: Lewis F. Richardson, Arms and Insecurity and Statistics of Deadly Quarrels". Journal of Conflict Resolution. 5 (4): 390–394. doi:10.1177/002200276100500406. ISSN   0022-0027. S2CID   145486602.
  6. ↑ Lienau, C. C. (1959). "Review of Statistics of Deadly Quarrels; Arms and Insecurity: The Theory of Arms Races, Lewis Fry Richardson; The Arms Race; Inspection for Disarmament". Management Science. 6 (1): 134–140. ISSN   0025-1909. JSTOR   2627484.
  7. 1 2 3 4 5 Hayes, Brian (2002). "Computing Science: Statistics of Deadly Quarrels". American Scientist. 90 (1): 10–15. doi:10.1511/2002.13.3269. ISSN   0003-0996. JSTOR   27857587. S2CID   14288824.
  8. 1 2 3 Gold, David; Richardson, Lewis F.; Rashevsky, Nicolas; Trucco, Ernesto; Wright, Quincy; Lienau, Carl C. (April 1962). "Arms and Insecurity: A Mathematical Study of the Causes and Origins of War". American Sociological Review. 27 (2): 262. doi:10.2307/2089688. JSTOR   2089688.
  9. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Kecskemeti, P. (1960-12-30). "Statistics of Deadly Quarrels. Lewis F. Richardson. Quincy Wright and C. C. Lienau, Eds. Boxwood Press, Pittsburgh Pa.; Quadrangle Books, Chicago, Ill., 1960. xlvi + 373 pp. $12.50". Science. 132 (3444): 1931–1932. doi:10.1126/science.132.3444.1931. ISSN   0036-8075.
  10. ↑ Chan, Steve (2010-03-01). "Progress in the Democratic Peace Research Agenda". Oxford Research Encyclopedia of International Studies. doi:10.1093/acrefore/9780190846626.013.280. ISBN   978-0-19-084662-6 . Retrieved 2023-01-11.
  11. ↑ Richardson, Lewis F. (1960). Statistics of Deadly Quarrels, (London: William Clowes and Sons), p 190, https://archive.org/details/statisticsofdead0000rich/page/190/mode/2up?view=theater&q=government
  12. ↑ N., M.; Richardson, Lewis F. (June 1961). "Statistics of Deadly Quarrels". Journal of the American Statistical Association. 56 (294): 469. doi:10.2307/2282320. JSTOR   2282320.
  13. ↑ Sutherland, Ian (1962). "Statistics of Human Conflict". Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (General). 125 (3): 473–483. doi:10.2307/2982415. ISSN   0035-9238. JSTOR   2982415.
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