2010 Oregon gubernatorial election

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2010 Oregon gubernatorial election
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  Governor Kitzhaber (cropped).jpg Chrisdudley (cropped).jpg
Nominee John Kitzhaber Chris Dudley
Party Democratic Republican
Alliance Independent
Popular vote716,525694,287
Percentage49.3%47.8%
2010 Oregon gubernatorial election results map by county.svg
County results

Kitzhaber:     40–50%     50–60%     70–80%

Dudley:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%
Governor before election

Ted Kulongoski
Democratic

Elected Governor

John Kitzhaber
Democratic

The 2010 Oregon gubernatorial election was held on Tuesday, November 2, 2010 to elect the Governor of Oregon to a four-year term beginning on January 10, 2011. The incumbent governor, Democrat Ted Kulongoski, was ineligible to run due to term limits barring him from being elected to more than two consecutive terms.

Contents

The Democratic candidate John Kitzhaber, who had previously served two terms as governor from 1995 to 2003, was elected to a third term, earning a narrow victory over Republican candidate Chris Dudley and two minor party candidates. Kitzhaber's election marked the first time in Oregon's history that a person has been elected to a third term as governor.

Oregon first used its new cross-nomination system, a form of fusion voting, in the 2010 general elections. In this system, a candidate for partisan public office can be nominated by up to three political parties. [1] Kitzhaber was nominated by the Independent Party of Oregon in addition to the Democratic Party.

Almost every opinion poll throughout the election season showed a statistical tie between the two, state Republicans saw this election as the best chance to win the governorship since the last Republican governor, Victor Atiyeh, was re-elected in 1982. Once polls closed on election day, Dudley had led in early vote counts, but Kitzhaber narrowly won due to wide margins in Multnomah and Lane counties. [2] However, this remains the closest Republicans have come to winning the governorship since that election.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Polling

Poll sourceDate administeredJohn KitzhaberBill BradburyUndecided
Davis, Hibbetts & Midghall May 8–10, 201053%23%22%
Survey USA May 7–9, 201059%25%12%

Results

Results by county: .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} Kitzhaber 40-50% 50-60% 60-70% 70-80% 80-90% 2010 Oregon gubernatorial Democratic primary election results map by county.svg
Results by county:
  Kitzhaber
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
Oregon Democratic gubernatorial primary results [3]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic John Kitzhaber 242,545 64.78
Democratic Bill Bradbury110,29829.46
Democratic Roger Obrist16,0574.29
Democratic Write-ins5,5041.47
Total votes374,404 100.00

Republican primary

Chris Dudley sign Chris Dudley for governor lawn sign.JPG
Chris Dudley sign

Candidates

Polling

Poll sourceDate administeredChris DudleyAllen AlleyJohn LimBill SizemoreUndecided
Davis, Hibbetts & Midghall May 8–10, 201033%23%8%6%24%
Survey USA May 7–9, 201042%24%8%8%14%

Results

Results by county: Dudley 30-40% 40-50% 50-60% 60-70% Alley 20-30% 30-40% 40-50% Oregon Republican gubernatorial primary results by county, 2010.svg
Results by county:
  Dudley
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  Alley
  •   20–30%
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
Oregon Republican gubernatorial primary results [3]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Chris Dudley 122,855 39.11
Republican Allen Alley99,75331.76
Republican John Lim47,33915.07
Republican Bill Sizemore23,5227.49
Republican William Ames Curtright12,4973.98
Republican Rex O. Watkins3,0600.97
Republican Write-ins2,0010.64
Republican Clark Colvin1,2060.38
Republican Darren Karr1,1270.36
Republican Bob Forthan7270.23
Total votes314,087 100.00

Independent Party primary

Oregon first used its new cross nomination system, a form of fusion voting, in the 2010 general elections. In this system, a candidate for partisan public office can be nominated by up to three political parties. [1] As a result, the Independent Party of Oregon did not file a candidate and instead chose to hold a month-long online primary in July. [4] In doing so, it became the first political party in the United States to conduct a binding statewide primary election entirely over the Internet, [5] and it was the largest nominating process ever held by an Oregon minor political party. [6] Republican Chris Dudley did not apply for the Independent Party nomination by the required date, so he was not on the ballot, but he could be written in. [4]

Candidates

Results

Independent Party of Oregon gubernatorial primary results [7]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic John Kitzhaber 850 38.39
Independent Richard Esterman43819.78
Independent Write-ins31414.18
Independent None of the above31214.09
Progressive Jerry Wilson30013.55
Total votes2,214 100.00

General election

Voters' pamphlet for the 2010 general election Oregon Voters' Pamphlet 2010.jpg
Voters' pamphlet for the 2010 general election

Candidates

Campaign

Following the primaries, the two leading candidates, Dudley and Kitzhaber, campaigned separately throughout the state for the summer. Despite attempts by both campaigns to arrange a debate, the candidates could only agree on a single debate on September 30. [8] Through the end of September, the Dudley campaign had raised $5.6 million, more than twice as much as the Kitzhaber campaign. [9]

Throughout the last few months of the campaign, opinion polls showed a tight race with the lead apparently changing frequently. Due to the closeness of the race, President Barack Obama, for whom Oregon voted by a 16-percent margin in 2008, stumped for Kitzhaber; then headlined a rally at the Oregon Convention Center in Portland on October 20, 2010.

Newspaper endorsements

NewspaperEndorsement
The Oregonian (Portland)John Kitzhaber [10]
Willamette Week (Portland)John Kitzhaber [11]
Portland Tribune John Kitzhaber [12]
The Register-Guard (Eugene)John Kitzhaber [13]
Statesman Journal (Salem)Chris Dudley [14]
Mail Tribune (Medford)John Kitzhaber [15]
The Bulletin (Bend)Chris Dudley [16]
East Oregonian (Pendleton)John Kitzhaber [17]
The Lake Oswego Review John Kitzhaber [18]
The News-Review (Roseburg)John Kitzhaber [19]
The Outlook (Gresham)John Kitzhaber [20]
The Daily Astorian John Kitzhaber [21]
Corvallis Gazette-Times John Kitzhaber [22]
News-Register (McMinnville)Chris Dudley [23]
The Sandy Post John Kitzhaber [24]
Beaverton Valley Times John Kitzhaber [25]
West Linn Tidings John Kitzhaber [26]

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
Cook Political Report [27] TossupOctober 14, 2010
Rothenberg [28] TossupOctober 28, 2010
RealClearPolitics [29] TossupNovember 1, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball [30] Lean R (flip)October 28, 2010
CQ Politics [31] Lean DOctober 28, 2010

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s) administeredMargin of errorJohn
Kitzhaber (D)		Chris
Dudley (R)		Other candidate(s)Undecided
Davis & Hibbitts October 30–31, 2010± 3.1%46%43%
Survey USA October 23–28, 2010± 4.2%48%41%2%8%
Rasmussen Reports October 25, 2010± 4.0%46%49%3%3%
Hibbitts October 24–25, 2010± 4.4%42%45%2%12%
Elway Research October 18–19, 2010± 4.4%45%44%3%5%
Public Policy Polling October 16–17, 2010± 2.8%48%47%5%
Survey USA October 12–14, 2010± 3.9%46%45%4%5%
Rasmussen Reports October 10, 2010± 4.0%48%46%3%4%
Survey USA September 12–14, 2010± 4.2%43%49%5%3%
Riley Research August 31 – September 9, 2010± 5.0%40%39%5%16%
Rasmussen Reports September 8, 2010± 4.0%44%49%2%5%
Rasmussen Reports August 22, 2010± 4.0%44%45%3%8%
Grove Insight August 18–21, 2010± 4.0%44%35%4%14%
Survey USA July 25–27, 2010± 4.2%44%46%7%4%
Rasmussen Reports July 26, 2010± 4.0%44%47%5%4%
Magellan Strategies June 28, 2010± 3.2%40%41%10%9%
Davis, Hibbits and Midghall Archived June 26, 2010, at the Wayback Machine June 21, 2010unk41%41%6%12%
Rasmussen Reports June 17, 2010± 4.5%45%47%4%4%
Survey USA June 7–9, 2010± 4.2%40%47%6%7%
Rasmussen Reports May 20, 2010± 4.5%44%45%4%6%
Rasmussen Reports April 26, 2010± 4.0%41%41%4%4%
Moore Insight February 20–21, 2010± 4.0%45%33%21%
Rasmussen Reports February 17, 2010± 4.5%42%36%7%15%

Results

Statewide results

Kitzhaber gives his victory speech after winning the Oregon governorship John Kitzhaber acceptance speech-5.jpg
Kitzhaber gives his victory speech after winning the Oregon governorship
Oregon gubernatorial election, 2010 [32]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Democratic John Kitzhaber 716,525 49.29% -1.43%
Republican Chris Dudley 694,28747.76%+5.01%
Constitution Greg Kord20,4751.41%-2.23%
Libertarian Wes Wagner19,0481.31%+0.09%
Write-ins3,2130.22%
Majority22,2381.53%-6.45%
Turnout 1,453,548
Democratic hold Swing

County results

Dudley won 29 of Oregon's 36 counties. Kitzhaber won seven, including Multnomah County by a 43% margin of victory. [32]

CountyKitzhaberVotesDudleyVotesKordVotesWagnerVotesVariousVotesTotal
Baker 26.8%1,94968.1%4,8162.6%1872.3%1660.3%217,276
Benton 59.4%21,49838.0%13,7671.1%3991.2%4480.2%7736,189
Clackamas 44.3%69,25053.4%83,5161.1%1,6861.0%1,5470.2%288156,287
Clatsop 51.3%7,65445.5%6,7921.3%1961.6%1660.2%3714,913
Columbia 44.4%8,97351.0%10,3022.4%4931.8%3680.3%5420,190
Coos 41.3%10,45653.9%13,6522.4%6182.3%5830.1%3425,343
Crook 26.1%2,31470.3%6,2311.7%1521.6%1440.2%218,862
Curry 38.8%3,98656.0%5,7612.7%2752.4%2450.1%1410,281
Deschutes 38.1%24,28959.1%37,7061.3%8611.3%8150.2%11263,783
Douglas 32.5%14,07263.3%27,4382.2%9521.9%8070.2%6643,335
Gilliam 32.0%30864.4%6202.6%250.7%70.2%2962
Grant 21.6%74974.3%2,5762.5%861.4%500.2%83,469
Harney 23.8%80072.3%2,4362.3%761.4%480.2%83,368
Hood River 56.7%4,77840.7%3,4341.1%951.2%1030.2%178,427
Jackson 41.7%32,36055.0%42,7151.8%1,3891.4%1,1170.1%10977,690
Jefferson 32.3%2,13264.2%4,2401.7%1101.7%1100.2%106,602
Josephine 34.7%11,55860.2%20,0253.1%1,0181.9%6460.1%4333,290
Klamath 25.1%5,82070.4%16,2952.4%5601.8%4280.2%5523,158
Lake 21.0%65874.2%2,3232.6%802.0%640.3%63,131
Lane 57.0%81,73140.0%57,3941.3%1,8551.4%2,0450.3%488143,513
Lincoln 53.0%10,48443.2%8,5401.8%3472.0%3890.2%3119,791
Linn 34.8%14,46661.1%25,3702.2%8981.7%7080.3%11041,552
Malheur 24.4%1,88470.4%5,4403.2%2462.0%1570.1%57,732
Marion 44.4%44,79552.7%53,1771.5%1,5301.2%1,1920.2%242100,936
Morrow 26.8%85068.8%2,1842.7%871.5%480.2%63,175
Multnomah 70.6%198,15727.4%76,9150.8%2,1491.0%2,8790.3%750280,850
Polk 43.4%12,89953.7%15,9661.5%4561.1%3360.2%6729,724
Sherman 26.3%23870.1%6341.7%151.9%170.1%1905
Tillamook 46.0%5,07250.8%5,6041.5%1631.6%1730.2%1911,031
Umatilla 32.1%6,32163.8%12,5742.2%4411.6%3200.2%4719,703
Union 31.6%3,36664.5%6,8692.1%2211.5%1650.3%3110,652
Wallowa 28.6%1,08867.9%2,5812.1%791.1%430.2%93,800
Wasco 43.2%4,02453.1%4,9381.7%1611.7%1560.3%279,306
Washington 49.6%92,81148.1%89,9261.1%1,9771.1%1,9830.2%336187,033
Wheeler 28.6%21666.3%5002.9%222.0%150.1%1754
Yamhill 39.7%14,51957.2%20,8931.6%5701.3%4920.2%6136,535

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

See also

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References

  1. 1 2 Mapes, Jeff (July 8, 2009). "Kulongoski will sign fusion voting bill". The Oregonian . Retrieved October 12, 2010.
  2. ↑ "The Oregonian's prediction: John Kitzhaber wins Oregon governor race". The Oregonian . November 3, 2010. Retrieved November 3, 2010.
  3. 1 2 "Official Results: May 18, 2010 Primary Election". records.sos.state.or.us. Retrieved April 2, 2020.
  4. 1 2 "IPO primary FAQ". Archived from the original on September 25, 2010. Retrieved October 12, 2010.
  5. ↑ "E-voting not ready yet". The Oregonian. Retrieved August 11, 2010.
  6. ↑ "Oregon Independent Party Releases Results of its Private Primary". Ballot Access News. Retrieved August 11, 2010.
  7. ↑ "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on August 17, 2011. Retrieved October 21, 2016.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  8. ↑ Esteve, Harry (October 1, 2010). "John Kitzhaber and Chris Dudley spar in Oregon gubernatorial campaign's only debate". The Oregonian . Retrieved October 1, 2010.
  9. ↑ Steves, David (September 29, 2010). "Dudley doubles donor dollars". The Register-Guard . Retrieved October 1, 2010.
  10. ↑ "Our endorsement: Kitzhaber for governor". The Oregonian . Portland. October 10, 2010. Retrieved November 6, 2010.
  11. ↑ "Save Our State!". Willamette Week . Portland. October 13, 2010. Archived from the original on November 2, 2010. Retrieved November 7, 2010.
  12. ↑ "Let Kitzhaber steer state into future". Portland Tribune . Pamplin Media Group. October 14, 2010. Retrieved November 7, 2010.
  13. ↑ "Kitzhaber for governor: Oregon needs experience, not a fresh face". The Register-Guard . Eugene. October 17, 2010. Retrieved November 6, 2010.
  14. ↑ "Chris Dudley worth taking a risk on: Candidate more likely to bring jobs, unity to state". Statesman Journal . Salem. October 10, 2010. Retrieved November 6, 2010.
  15. ↑ "Governor: John Kitzhaber: Oregon's problems are too complex for a newcomer; the state needs his experience". Mail Tribune . Medford. October 17, 2010. Retrieved November 6, 2010.
  16. ↑ "Pick Dudley for governor". The Bulletin . Bend. October 15, 2010. Retrieved November 6, 2010.
  17. ↑ "Kitzhaber brings a clear vision for Oregon's future". East Oregonian . Pendleton. October 17, 2010. Retrieved November 6, 2010.
  18. ↑ "It's Kitzhaber by a nose in state gubernatorial contest". The Lake Oswego Review . October 21, 2010. Retrieved November 6, 2010.
  19. ↑ "Kitzhaber's experience more valuable than fresh face". The News-Review . Roseburg. October 24, 2010. Retrieved November 6, 2010.
  20. ↑ "Kitzhaber must use experience to bring change". The Outlook . Gresham. October 16, 2010. Retrieved November 6, 2010.
  21. ↑ "John Kitzhaber for governor". The Daily Astorian . October 7, 2010. Retrieved November 6, 2010.
  22. ↑ "Kitzhaber best suited to lead Oregon". Corvallis Gazette-Times . October 21, 2010. Retrieved November 6, 2010.
  23. ↑ "Endorsement summary: November 2010 general election". News-Register . McMinnville. October 30, 2010. Retrieved November 6, 2010.[ permanent dead link ]
  24. ↑ "Kitzhaber must use experience to bring change". The Sandy Post. Pamplin Media Group. October 20, 2010. Retrieved April 20, 2013.
  25. ↑ "Kitzhaber earns slim nod thanks to his experience". Beaverton Valley Times. Pamplin Media Group. October 14, 2010. Retrieved April 20, 2013.
  26. ↑ "Let Kitzhaber steer Oregon". West Linn Tidings. Pamplin Media Group. October 21, 2010. Retrieved April 20, 2013.
  27. ↑ "2010 Governors Race Ratings". Cook Political Report. Archived from the original on October 28, 2010. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
  28. ↑ "Governor Ratings". Rothenberg Political Report . Retrieved October 28, 2010.
  29. ↑ "2010 Governor Races". RealClearPolitics . Retrieved October 28, 2010.
  30. ↑ "THE CRYSTAL BALL'S FINAL CALLS". Sabato's Crystal Ball . Retrieved October 28, 2010.
  31. ↑ "Race Ratings Chart: Governor". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on October 5, 2010. Retrieved October 28, 2010.
  32. 1 2 "Official Results: November 2, 2010 General Election". records.sos.state.or.us. Retrieved April 2, 2020.
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