2020 Arizona Democratic presidential primary

Last updated

2020 Arizona Democratic presidential primary
Flag of Arizona.svg
  2016 March 17, 2020 2024  
  MP
FL  

80 delegates (67 pledged, 13 unpledged)
to the Democratic National Convention
The number of pledged delegates won is determined by the popular vote
  Joe Biden February 2020 crop.jpg Bernie Sanders March 2020 (cropped).jpg
Candidate Joe Biden Bernie Sanders
Home state Delaware Vermont
Delegate count3829
Popular vote268,029200,456
Percentage43.7%32.7%

  Michael Bloomberg by Gage Skidmore (cropped).jpg Elizabeth Warren by Gage Skidmore (cropped).jpg
Candidate Michael Bloomberg
(withdrawn) [lower-alpha 1]
Elizabeth Warren
(withdrawn) [lower-alpha 2]
Home state New York Massachusetts
Delegate count00
Popular vote58,79735,537
Percentage9.6%5.8%

Arizona Democratic presidential primary election results by county, 2020.svg
Election results by county
  Joe Biden
  Bernie Sanders
Pledged national
convention
delegates
TypeDel.
CD1 5
CD2 6
CD3 5
CD4 3
CD5 5
CD6 5
CD7 4
CD8 5
CD9 6
PLEO9
At-large14
Total pledged delegates67

The 2020 Arizona Democratic presidential primary took place on March 17, 2020, the third primary Tuesday of the month, as one of three contests on the same day in the Democratic Party primaries for the 2020 presidential election, while the contest in Ohio had been postponed for roughly a month. The closed primary allocated 80 delegates towards the 2020 Democratic National Convention, of which 67 were pledged delegates allocated according to the results of the primary.

Contents

Three major candidates ran in the primary, including former vice president Joe Biden, senator Bernie Sanders from Vermont, and representative Tulsi Gabbard from Hawaii's 2nd district. 12 other candidates who withdrew prior to the contest were also on the ballot, along with three minor candidates. Biden won the primary, with almost 44% of the vote and 38 delegates, while Sanders came in second place with almost 33% of the vote and 29 delegates. In a distant third was former mayor Michael Bloomberg, who came close to 10%, even though he had suspended his campaign nearly two weeks before and had issued an official withdrawal with the state, still remaining on the ballot.

Biden won 13 of 15 counties, with the exception of Coconino and Yuma, and 7 of 9 congressional districts. [1] Key to his victory were white voters, whom he won 51-32 per CNN exit polls, and suburban voters, who he won 53–32. [2] In a stark contrast from 2016, Sanders' strength was reliant primarily on non-white and Hispanic voters, whom Biden won by only 47-45 and 45–44, respectively. Biden would ultimately win the state of Arizona in the general election by 10,457 votes, making him the first Democrat to win it since Bill Clinton in 1996 and only the second since Harry Truman did so in 1948.

Procedure

Sanders at a rally in Phoenix on March 5, 2020 Bernie Sanders with supporters (49624944848).jpg
Sanders at a rally in Phoenix on March 5, 2020

Arizona was one of three states holding primaries on March 17, 2020, alongside Florida and Illinois, while only one day before Ohio had been the first state to postpone its primary due to the COVID-19 pandemic and cancel in-person voting, accepting ballots until April 28 instead.

Voters had to have registered as Democrats by February 18 to be eligible for voting in the primary. Arizona mailed ballots to voters on the permanent early voting list. Ballots had to be received by 7:00 p.m. on March 17, 2020. In addition, some Arizona counties offered early voting sites, where any voter could walk in and vote in person, Monday to Friday, from February 19 through March 13, 2020. [3] [4] Voting took place from 6:00 a.m. until 7:00 p.m MST. In the closed primary, candidates had to meet a threshold of 15 percent at the congressional district or statewide level in order to be considered viable for delegates. The 67 pledged delegates to the 2020 Democratic National Convention were allocated proportionally on the basis of the results of the primary. Of these, between 3 and 6 were allocated to each of the state's 9 congressional districts and another 9 were allocated to party leaders and elected officials (PLEO delegates), in addition to 14 at-large delegates. [5] As a March primary on Stage I of the primary timetable Arizona received no bonus delegates, in order to disperse the primaries between more different date clusters and keep too many states from hoarding on a March date. [6]

District caucuses were held on April 18, 2020, to designate national convention district delegates. The state convention and state committee meeting were subsequently held on May 16, 2020, to vote on the 14 at-large and 9 pledged PLEO delegates for the Democratic National Convention. The delegation also included 13 unpledged PLEO delegates: 7 members of the Democratic National Committee and 6 members of Congress (one senator and 5 representatives). [5]

Candidates

The following candidates appeared on the ballot in Arizona. Candidates that had filed a formal withdrawal with the office remained on the ballot because it had already been printed but their votes were not individually published in the final canvass, making them effectively ineligible. [7]

Running

Withdrawn

Formal withdrawal (ineligible)

Polling

Polling aggregation
Source of poll aggregationDate updatedDates polled Joe
Biden
Bernie
Sanders
Tulsi
Gabbard
Other/
Undecided [lower-alpha 5]
270 to Win Mar 17, 2020Mar 3–16, 202050.6%29.4%1.0%19.0%
RealClear Politics Mar 17, 2020Mar 6–15, 202051.7%33.7%1.0%13.6%
FiveThirtyEight Mar 17, 2020until Mar 16, 2020 [lower-alpha 6] 51.6%26.9%1.1%20.4%
Average51.3%30.0%1.0%17.7%
Tabulation of individual polls of the 2020 Arizona Democratic primary
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size [lower-alpha 7]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Michael
Bloomberg
Pete
Buttigieg
Kamala
Harris
Bernie
Sanders
Elizabeth
Warren
Andrew
Yang
OtherUndecided
Swayable Archived March 17, 2020, at the Wayback Machine Mar 16, 20201,167 (LV)± 5.0%53%29%19% [lower-alpha 8]
Marist/NBC News Mar 10–15, 2020523 (LV)± 6.0%53%36%8% [lower-alpha 9] 3%
913 (RV)± 4.5%50%37%9% [lower-alpha 10] 5%
Monmouth University Mar 11–14, 2020373 (LV)± 5.1%51%5%3%31%3%2% [lower-alpha 11] 5%
Latino Decisions/Univision/
Arizona State University
Mar 6–11, 2020541 (LV)± 4.2%57% [lower-alpha 12] 38% [lower-alpha 12] 5% [lower-alpha 12]
51%34%6% [lower-alpha 13] 8%
March 4–5, 2020Bloomberg and Warren withdraw from the race
OH Predictive Insights Mar 3–4, 2020398 (LV)± 4.9%45%12%17%13%4% [lower-alpha 14] 9%
March 1–2, 2020Buttigieg and Klobuchar withdraw from the race
February 11, 2020 New Hampshire primary; Yang withdraws from the race after close of polls
Dec 3, 2019Harris withdraws from the race
OH Predictive Insights Oct 31 – Nov 8, 2019260 (LV)± 6.1%29%9%5%16%18%4%19% [lower-alpha 15]
Emerson Polling Oct 25–28, 2019339± 5.2%28%12%4%21%21%5%7% [lower-alpha 16]
Siena Research/New York Times Oct 13–26, 201920924%5%3%16%15%1%1% [lower-alpha 17] 31%
Change Research Sep 27–28, 2019396 (LV)15%13%4%19%35%8%7% [lower-alpha 18]
Bendixen&Amandi Sep 9–12, 2019250± 4.3%29%5%4%18%24%2%8% [lower-alpha 19] 10%
Zogby Analytics May 23–29, 2019197± 7.0%35%6%4%16%10%0%11% [lower-alpha 20]

Results

Popular vote share by county
Biden--40-50%
Biden--50-60%
Sanders--30-40%
Sanders--40-50% 2020 Arizona Democratic presidential primary election results map by county (vote share).svg
Popular vote share by county
  Biden—40–50%
  Biden—50–60%
  Sanders—30–40%
  Sanders—40–50%
2020 Arizona Democratic presidential primary [8]
CandidateVotes %Delegates [9]
Joe Biden 268,02943.7038
Bernie Sanders 200,45632.7029
Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn) [lower-alpha 4] 35,5375.79
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn) [lower-alpha 3] 24,8684.05
Tulsi Gabbard 3,0140.49
Andrew Yang (withdrawn)1,9210.31
Julian Castro (withdrawn)7540.12
Marianne Williamson (withdrawn)6680.11
Deval Patrick (withdrawn)2420.04
Henry Hewes 2080.03
Other candidates8120.13
Other votes4,9420.81
Ineligible candidates [lower-alpha 21]

Michael Bloomberg
Amy Klobuchar
Tom Steyer
John Delaney
Cory Booker
Michael Bennet

71,904

58,797
10,333
1,381
505
494
394

11.72

9.59
1.68
0.23
0.08
0.08
0.06

Total613,355100%67

By county

County [8] Joe Biden Bernie Sanders Elizabeth Warren
(withdrawn†)
Pete Buttigieg
(withdrawn†)
Tulsi Gabbard Andrew Yang
(withdrawn)
Julián Castro
(withdrawn)
Marianne Williamson
(withdrawn)
Rocky De La Fuente Deval Patrick
(withdrawn)
Henry Hewes Michael A. EllingerOthers [lower-alpha 22] [lower-alpha 23] MarginTotal votes castEligible votersVoter turnout
#%#%#%#%#%#%#%#%#%#%#%#%#%#%
Apache 3,09244.0%2,52335.9%2523.6%1432.0%480.7%360.5%200.3%250.4%260.4%220.3%130.2%100.1%81811.6%5698.1%7,02828,73424.5%
Cochise 4,12341.7%2,69427.3%6786.9%4664.7%930.9%340.3%220.2%200.2%260.3%100.1%80.1%40.0%1,71017.3%1,42914.4%9,88820,35648.6%
Coconino 6,57837.4%7,65043.5%1,2557.1%5273.0%940.5%640.4%160.1%230.1%170.1%130.1%90.1%50.0%1,3547.7%–1,072–6.1%17,60535,90149.0%
Gila 2,04147.8%92821.7%1924.5%1814.2%370.9%250.6%100.2%240.6%80.2%30.0%110.3%20.1%80718.9%1,11326.1%4,2698,84548.3%
Graham 77446.2%42025.0%704.2%442.6%171.0%140.8%80.5%50.3%100.6%00.0%20.1%00.0%31318.7%35421.1%1,6775,08233.0%
Greenlee 31645.0%13819.6%253.6%304.3%142.0%60.9%40.6%10.1%40.6%00.0%30.4%10.1%16122.9%17825.3%7031,75640.0%
La Paz 32344.8%19326.8%294.0%212.9%60.8%60.8%50.7%30.4%20.3%10.1%10.1%20.3%12917.9%13018.0%7212,28231.6%
Maricopa 153,70742.9%120,37933.6%20,5845.7%15,3464.3%1,6200.4%1,1090.3%3450.1%3070.1%2970.1%1210.0%990.0%920.0%44,38412.4%33,3289.3%358,390732,37648.9%
Mohave 4,45047.4%2,14222.8%4324.6%4935.3%640.7%380.4%70.1%180.2%160.2%70.1%70.1%50.4%1,70118.1%2,30824.6%9,38020,87244.9%
Navajo 3,58544.3%2,61732.8%3163.9%1932.4%540.7%590.7%140.2%250.3%180.2%110.1%140.2%100.1%1,16914.5%96812.0%8,08525,21532.1%
Pima 60,62245.3%42,95432.1%8,6026.4%4,9073.7%6130.5%3060.2%1490.1%1050.1%880.1%320.0%200.0%330.0%15,37811.5%17,66813.2%133,809237,56856.3%
Pinal 12,45048.4%6,65825.9%1,1654.5%1,0304.0%1480.6%1060.4%390.2%330.1%450.2%60.0%120.1%30.0%4,03215.7%5,79222.5%25,72760,03442.9%
Santa Cruz 1,87640.6%1,54733.5%1944.2%1312.8%150.3%180.4%220.5%120.3%250.5%20.0%00.0%60.1%77516.8%3297.1%4,62313,55234.1%
Yavapai 10,31747.9%5,71726.5%1,3556.3%1,0154.7%1290.6%560.3%50.0%420.2%50.0%30.0%50.0%30.0%2,89113.4%4,60021.4%21,54331,85667.6%
Yuma 3,77538.1%3,89639.3%3883.9%3413.4%620.6%440.4%880.9%250.3%410.4%110.1%40.0%80.1%1,22412.4%–121–1.2%9,90731,91431.0%
Totals268,02943.7%200,45632.7%35,5375.8%24,8684.1%3,0140.5%1,9210.3%7540.1%6680.1%6280.1%2420.0%2080.0%1840.0%76,84612.5%67,57311.0%613,3551,256,34348.8%

By congressional district

Congressional district [8] Joe Biden Bernie Sanders Elizabeth Warren
(withdrawn†)
Pete Buttigieg
(withdrawn†)
Tulsi Gabbard Andrew Yang
(withdrawn)
Julián Castro
(withdrawn)
Marianne Williamson
(withdrawn)
Rocky De La Fuente Deval Patrick
(withdrawn)
Henry Hewes Michael A. EllingerOthers [lower-alpha 24] [lower-alpha 23] MarginTotal votes castEligible votersVoter turnout
#%#%#%#%#%#%#%#%#%#%#%#%#%#%
1st 32,74945.8%22,33631.2%3,7765.3%2,4723.5%4320.6%3020.4%1070.2%1190.2%1170.2%530.1%550.1%330.1%8,95412.5%10,41314.6%71,505167,90842.6%
2nd 43,97045.9%28,92730.2%6,7417.0%3,8144.0%4790.5%2400.3%820.1%880.1%720.1%300.0%190.0%180.0%11,23811.7%15,04315.7%95,718160,42859.7%
3rd 23,74438.7%24,76640.4%2,7244.4%1,5952.6%2920.5%1800.3%2220.4%720.1%1150.2%340.1%170.0%310.1%7,50512.2%−1,022−1.7%61,297158,63538.6%
4th 22,33847.4%11,92525.3%2,5505.4%2,2984.9%2930.6%1640.4%420.1%1000.2%610.1%200.0%310.1%150.0%7,29115.5%10,41322.1%47,12890,29652.2%
5th 27,85144.3%19,63631.3%3,7215.9%3,0204.8%3020.5%2100.3%360.1%580.1%350.1%80.0%130.0%130.0%7,92012.6%8,21513.1%62,823121,00651.9%
6th 34,29547.4%19,87827.5%4,2405.9%3,5704.9%3470.5%1560.2%330.1%570.1%340.1%200.0%150.0%100.0%9,67613.4%14,41719.9%72,331129,89355.7%
7th 19,78935.6%24,70144.4%2,6764.8%1,5722.8%1820.3%1910.3%1240.2%420.1%770.1%270.1%110.0%230.0%6,20211.2%−4,912−8.8%55,617148,50937.5%
8th 30,59446.8%17,53726.8%3,4205.2%3,0984.7%3340.5%2060.3%590.1%740.1%590.1%220.0%280.0%210.0%9,98515.3%13,05720.0%65,437123,99652.8%
9th 32,69940.1%30,75037.7%5,6897.0%3,4294.2%3530.4%2720.3%490.1%580.1%580.1%280.0%190.0%200.0%8,0759.9%1,9492.4%81,499155,67252.4%
Totals268,02943.7%200,45632.7%35,5375.8%24,8684.1%3,0140.5%1,9210.3%7540.1%6680.1%6280.1%2420.0%2080.0%1840.0%76,84612.5%67,57311.0%613,3551,256,34348.8%

Analysis

Arizona was a hotly contested state throughout both the primary and general election seasons due to its rapidly diversifying electorate. A high concentration of Hispanic and Latino voters as well as an intense swing to the left in suburban areas and the Republican Party having moved to the right, strengthened Democratic support while drawing new divides in the Democratic Party. [13] In 2016, Hillary Clinton defeated Bernie Sanders by a 14.9% margin; [14] despite Sanders being trailing Biden significantly nationwide, he actually improved on his performance in Arizona in 2020, losing it by an 11.0% margin. [8] This improvement was mostly attributable to improvements among Hispanic and Latino voters: Sanders performed well among that demographic throughout the primary as opposed to 2016, when Clinton handily carried regions with high densities of Hispanic voters. [15] Per CNN exit polls, [2] Biden won Hispanic voters 45-44 compared to white voters, who he won 51–32. Sanders won Yuma County, where 64.6% of the population are Hispanic or Latino, as well as Arizona's 3rd and 7th congressional districts; the former, home to Tucson, Yuma, and most of the southern border, is 65.1% Hispanic, [16] while the latter, composing much of inner Phoenix, is 64.0% Hispanic. [17] Nonetheless, Biden's performance represented a significant improvement among voters of these demographics from earlier in the primary, [15] which was compounded by a strong performance in the state's suburbs. He won Maricopa County, which holds Phoenix and 61.6% of the population, by 33,328 votes, [8] largely due to the Phoenix suburbs, which have been reliably Republican since the 1950s but have recently shifted to the left. [13] He also won Pima County, the second largest county and home to Tucson, by 17,668 votes. [8]

The results of the primary would be reflected in the general election: Biden would end up winning Arizona by 10,457 votes, the first Democrat to do so since Bill Clinton in 1996 and only the second since Harry S. Truman in 1948. He would also become the first to win crucial Maricopa County since Truman. His performance in predominantly-Hispanic areas in urban areas and along the southern border would also decline compared to 2016, though would be supplemented by a raw increase in voter turnout. [18]

Notes

  1. Bloomberg publicly withdrew on March 4, 2020, thirteen days before the primary, and later also officially withdrew in the state, but absentee and early voting had already occurred and he was not taken off the ballot.
  2. Warren withdrew on March 5, 2020, twelve days before the primary. Absentee and early voting had already occurred.
  3. 1 2 Candidate withdrew before Super Tuesday during early voting.
  4. 1 2 Candidate withdrew after Super Tuesday during early voting.
  5. Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined
  6. FiveThirtyEight aggregates polls with a trendline regression of polls rather than a strict average of recent polls.
  7. Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  8. Gabbard with 1%; "Other" with 18%
  9. Gabbard with 1%; "Other" with 7%
  10. Gabbard with 2%; "Other" with 7%
  11. Gabbard and Klobuchar with 1%; "Other" with <1%
  12. 1 2 3 In a two-person race
  13. Gabbard with 1%; "Other" with 5%
  14. "Another Candidate" with 4%
  15. Booker, Castro and Klobuchar with 2%; Bennet, Gabbard, O'Rourke and Steyer with 1%; Delaney with 0%; Bullock and Williamson with no voters; other with 7%
  16. Gabbard, Klobuchar and O'Rourke with 2%; Sestak with 1%; Bennet, Booker, Bullock, Castro, Delaney, Steyer and Williamson with 0%; someone else with 2%
  17. Klobuchar with 1%; Booker, Gabbard and O'Rourke with 0%; others with 0%
  18. O'Rourke with 3%; Booker, Castro, Gabbard and Klobuchar with 1%; Steyer with 0%
  19. O'Rourke with 4%; Castro, Klobuchar and Williamson with 1%; someone else with 1%
  20. Booker, Castro, Delaney, and O'Rourke with 2%; Gabbard, Gillibrand, and Hickenlooper with 1%; Inslee and Klobuchar with 0%
  21. While Bloomberg, Klobuchar, Steyer, Delaney, Booker and Bennet had formally withdrawn and were not published in the final state canvass, those ballots were included by the state as part of overall cast ballots and any media covering the primary reported individual vote tallies for those candidates. [7] [10] [11]
  22. Percentages reported by the Arizona Secretary of State do not add up to 100. This may be due to the fact that candidates who formally withdrew (Bennet, Bloomberg, Booker, Delaney, Klobuchar, and Steyer [12] ) do not have their vote totals officially reported. [8]
  23. 1 2 Calculated by subtracting the totals of all reported candidates from the total votes reported.
  24. Percentages reported by the Arizona Secretary of State do not add up to 100. This may be due to the fact that candidates who formally withdrew (Bennet, Bloomberg, Booker, Delaney, Klobuchar, and Steyer [12] ) do not have their vote totals officially reported. [8]

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">2020 Florida Democratic presidential primary</span>

The 2020 Florida Democratic presidential primary took place on March 17, 2020, the third primary Tuesday of the month, as one of three states voting on the same day in the Democratic Party primaries for the 2020 presidential election, while the contest in Ohio had been postponed for roughly a month. The Florida primary was a closed primary, with the state awarding the fourth-largest amount of delegates towards the 2020 Democratic National Convention and the third-largest amount up to that point: 249 delegates, of which 219 were pledged delegates allocated on the basis of the results of the primary.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2020 Illinois Democratic presidential primary</span> 2020 Illinois Democratic primary

The 2020 Illinois Democratic presidential primary took place on March 17, 2020, the third primary Tuesday of the month, as one of three states voting on the same day in the Democratic Party primaries for the 2020 presidential election, while the contest in Ohio had been postponed for roughly a month. The Illinois primary was an open primary, with the state awarding 182 delegates to the 2020 Democratic National Convention, of which 155 were pledged delegates allocated on the basis of the results of the primary.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2020 Wisconsin Democratic presidential primary</span> 2020 Wisconsin Democratic presidential primary

The 2020 Wisconsin Democratic presidential primary took place on April 7, 2020, in the midst of the global COVID-19 pandemic, along with the Wisconsin Supreme Court Justice election, as part of the Democratic Party primaries for the 2020 presidential election. The Wisconsin primary was an open primary, with the state awarding 97 delegates to the 2020 Democratic National Convention, of which 84 were pledged delegates allocated on the basis of the results of the primary. Although all forms of voting had to take place on or until April 7, full results were not allowed to be released before April 13, in accordance with a district court ruling.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2020 Pennsylvania Democratic presidential primary</span>

The 2020 Pennsylvania Democratic presidential primary took place on June 2, 2020, after being postponed due to concerns about the COVID-19 pandemic, as one of eight delayed and regular primaries on the same day in the Democratic primaries for the 2020 presidential election. It was originally planned to take place on April 28, 2020, as one of several northeastern states in the "Acela primary". The Pennsylvania primary was a closed primary, with the state awarding 210 delegates, of whom 186 were pledged delegates allocated on the basis of the primary results.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2020 Georgia Democratic presidential primary</span> 2020 Georgia Democratic primary

The 2020 Georgia Democratic presidential primary was held on June 9, 2020 alongside the West Virginia primary, as part of the Democratic Party primaries for the 2020 presidential election. It was originally scheduled for March 24, 2020, but was moved to June 9 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and previously cast early mail-in votes were disallowed and separately counted. The election coincided with primaries for Georgia's Class 2 Senate seat and Georgia's U.S. House of Representatives seats. The Georgia primary was an open primary, which awarded 118 delegates to the 2020 Democratic National Convention, of whom 105 were pledged delegates allocated on the basis of the primary results.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2020 Maine Democratic presidential primary</span>

The 2020 Maine Democratic presidential primary took place on March 3, 2020, as one of 15 contests scheduled on Super Tuesday in the Democratic Party primaries for the 2020 presidential election, following the South Carolina primary the weekend before. The Maine primary, the first in the state since 2000, was a closed primary, meaning that only registered Democrats could vote in this primary, but unenrolled voters were permitted to enroll in a party at the polls with same day registration. The state awarded 32 delegates towards the 2020 Democratic National Convention, 24 of which were pledged delegates allocated based on the results of the primary. The primary election coincided with a people's veto referendum to reject changes to Maine's vaccination laws.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Statewide opinion polling for the 2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries</span>

This is a list of statewide public opinion polls that have been conducted relating to the Democratic primaries for the 2020 United States presidential election. The persons named in the polls are declared candidates or have received media speculation about their possible candidacy.

References

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