2020 South Carolina Democratic presidential primary

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2020 South Carolina Democratic presidential primary
Flag of South Carolina.svg
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64 delegates (54 pledged, 10 unpledged)
to the Democratic National Convention
The number of pledged delegates won is determined by the popular vote
  Joe Biden February 2020 crop.jpg Bernie Sanders March 2020 (cropped).jpg Tom Steyer by Gage Skidmore (cropped).jpg
Candidate Joe Biden Bernie Sanders Tom Steyer
Home state Delaware Vermont California
Delegate count39150
Popular vote262,336106,60561,140
Percentage48.6%19.8%11.3%
  Pete Buttigieg by Gage Skidmore (cropped).jpg Elizabeth Warren by Gage Skidmore (cropped).jpg
Candidate Pete Buttigieg Elizabeth Warren
Home state Indiana Massachusetts
Delegate count00
Popular vote44,21738,120
Percentage8.2%7.1%
2020 South Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary election by county.svg
2020 South Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary election by congressional district.svg

The 2020 South Carolina Democratic presidential primary took place on February 29, 2020 and was the fourth nominating contest in the Democratic Party primaries for the 2020 presidential election. The South Carolina primary was an open primary and awarded 64 delegates to the 2020 Democratic National Convention, of which 54 were pledged delegates allocated on the basis of the results of the primary. Former vice president Joe Biden and senator Bernie Sanders were the only candidates to earn delegates. Biden won 48.7% of the popular vote and notably placed first in every county in the state; it was his first ever win in a presidential primary. Sanders came in second place and won 19.8% of the popular vote. Businessman Tom Steyer, who had staked his entire campaign on the state, placed third but did not surpass the threshold and dropped out of the race, endorsing Biden.

Contents

The primary was widely interpreted as a turning point for the 2020 primaries, with Joe Biden gaining momentum going into the pivotal Super Tuesday races three days later. Following successes in the previous primaries, former mayor Pete Buttigieg and senator Amy Klobuchar received very disappointing results and initially wanted to stay in the race, but they both suspended their campaigns shortly before Super Tuesday and endorsed Biden on the day before. [1] [2] [3] While Biden and former mayor Michael Bloomberg were left as the only moderates afterwards, the majority coalesced around Biden in the race against left-wing candidates Sanders and senator Elizabeth Warren. [4]

Procedure

Primary elections were held on Saturday, February 29, 2020. In the open primary, candidates had to meet a viability threshold of 15 percent at the congressional district or statewide level in order to be considered viable. The 54 pledged delegates to the 2020 Democratic National Convention were allocated proportionally on the basis of the results of the primary. Of these, 35 were allocated on the basis of the results within each congressional district, between 3 and 8 were allocated to each of the state's seven congressional districts. Another 7 were allocated to party leaders and elected officials (PLEO delegates), in addition to 12 at-large delegates. [5]

The precinct reorganization meetings subsequently were held on March 14, 2020, to choose delegates for the county conventions, directly followed by county conventions until March 31, to elect delegates to the state convention. On May 30, 2020, the state convention met in Columbia to elect all pledged national convention delegates. Delegates were allowed to participate from remote places due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The delegation also included 10 unpledged PLEO delegates: 8 members of the Democratic National Committee and 2 representatives from Congress. [5]

Voting was done by each voter selecting choices on a screen, so the machine printed a ballot with chosen names and a bar code. Voters could check the printed names before putting the ballot in the ballot box, though few do that. [6] A scanner counted the bar codes, not the names, [7] and no audit was required to check if the machines worked correctly. [8]

Voters could absentee vote in-person until February 28, 2020, at 5:00 pm local time (EST) or submit absentee votes by mail. Election officials recommended applying to absentee vote by-mail a week in advance so that voters had time to receive their absentee ballot and mail it in by election day. [9] [10] Polling places closed at 7:00 pm; however, anyone standing in line at 7:00 pm were still allowed to vote. [11]

Pledged national
convention delegates [12]
TypeDel.
CD1 6
CD2 4
CD3 3
CD4 4
CD5 5
CD6 8
CD7 5
PLEO7
At-large12
Total pledged delegates54

Candidates

There was a $20,000 filing fee to get on the ballot, the largest in the nation. Along with the filing fee, an application [13] was required to be submitted to the South Carolina State committee by December 4, 2019.

The following candidates were placed on the ballot: [14]

Additionally, Julian Castro and Marianne Williamson were both accepted onto the ballot, but withdrew soon enough that they did not appear on the ballot. [15] Write-in votes are not permitted in South Carolina party primaries. [16]

Polling

Polling aggregation
Source of poll aggregationDate
updated		Dates
polled		 Joe
Biden 		Bernie
Sanders 		Tom
Steyer 		Pete
Buttigieg 		Elizabeth
Warren 		Amy
Klobuchar 		Tulsi
Gabbard 		Un-
decided [lower-alpha 1]
270 to Win Feb 28, 2020Feb 23–27, 202035.8%20.2%13.4%10.0%8.2%5.0%2.6%4.8%
RealClear Politics Feb 28, 2020Feb 23–27, 202039.7%24.3%11.7%11.3%6.0%5.7%2.3%– [lower-alpha 2]
FiveThirtyEight Feb 28, 2020until Feb 27, 2020 [lower-alpha 3] 38.4%19.1%12.4%8.5%7.0%4.3%2.6%7.7% [lower-alpha 4]
Average38.0%21.2%12.5%9.9%7.1%5.0%2.5%4.9% [lower-alpha 5]
South Carolina primary results (February 29, 2020)48.7%19.8%11.3%8.2%7.1%3.1%1.3%–
   – Debate qualifying poll as designated by the Democratic National Committee
Polling in January and February 2020
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 6] 		Margin
of error		Joe
Biden		Michael
Bloomberg		Pete
Buttigieg		Tulsi
Gabbard		Amy
Klobuchar		Bernie
Sanders		Tom
Steyer		Elizabeth
Warren		Andrew
Yang		OtherUndecided
South Carolina primary (popular vote)Feb 29, 2020––48.65%–8.2%1.26%3.13%19.77%11.34%7.07%0.2%0.38% [lower-alpha 7] –
Atlas Intel Feb 25–28, 2020477 (LV)± 4.0%35%–8%2%4%24%12%7%–2%6%
Emerson College Feb 26–27, 2020550 (LV)± 4.1%41%–11%2%6%25%11%5%–––
Trafalgar Group Feb 26–27, 20201,081 (LV)± 2.99%43.9%–9.6%1.7%5.9%22.8%10.5%5.6%–––
Data for Progress Feb 23–27, 20201416 (LV)± 2.6%34%–13%3%5%25%13%7%–––
Change Research /
Post and Courier 		Feb 23–27, 2020543 (LV)± 5.1%28%–11%5%4%24%16%12%––1%
Starboard Communications Feb 26, 20201,102 (LV)± 2.82%40%–9%2%6%11%12%9%––12%
Feb 25, 2020 Tenth Democratic primary debate
Monmouth University Feb 23–25, 2020454 (LV)± 4.6%36%–6%1%4%16%15%8%–0%15%
Clemson University Feb 17–25, 2020650 (LV)± 3.8%35%–8%2%4%13%17%8%––12%
East Carolina University Feb 23–24, 20201,142 (LV)± 3.37%31%–6%2%2%23%20%8%––8%
Public Policy Polling Feb 23–24, 2020866 (LV)± 3.3%36%–7%6%3%21%7%8%––11% [lower-alpha 8]
Feb 22, 2020 Nevada caucuses
YouGov/CBS News Feb 20–22, 20201,238 (LV)± 5.5%28%–10%1%4%23%18%12%–3% [lower-alpha 9] 1%
Marist Poll/NBC News Feb 18–21, 2020539 (LV)± 6.0%27%–9%3%5%23%15%8%–2% [lower-alpha 10] 9%
997 (RV)± 4.0%25%–9%3%5%24%15%8%–2% [lower-alpha 11] 9%
Winthrop University Feb 9–19, 2020443 (LV)± 4.7%24%–7%1%4%19%15%6%1% [lower-alpha 12] 2% [lower-alpha 13] 22%
University of Massachusetts Lowell Feb 12–18, 2020400 (LV)± 7.5%23%–11%4%9%21%13%11%–4% [lower-alpha 14] 4%
Change Research/The Welcome Party Feb 12–14, 20201015 (LV)–23%–15%1%8%23%20%9%––1%
East Carolina University Feb 12–13, 2020703 (LV)± 4.3%28%6%8%1%7%20%14%7%–0%8%
Feb 11–12, 2020 New Hampshire primary; Yang withdraws from the race.
Feb 3, 2020 Iowa caucus
Zogby Analytics Jan 31 – Feb 3, 2020277 (LV)± 5.9%28%4%7%4%2%20%15%11%1%0% [lower-alpha 15] 8%
East Carolina University Jan 31 – Feb 2, 2020469 (LV)± 5.3%37%1%4%2%2%14%19%8%3%0% [lower-alpha 16] 10%
Change Research/
Post and Courier 		Jan 26–29, 2020651 (LV)± 4%25%–7%3%2%20%18%11%3%1% [lower-alpha 17] 10%
Jan 13, 2020Booker withdraws from the race
GQR Research/Unite the Country [lower-alpha 18] Jan 9–13, 2020600 (LV)–36% [lower-alpha 19] – [lower-alpha 20] 5% [lower-alpha 21] – [lower-alpha 22] – [lower-alpha 23] 15% [lower-alpha 24] 12% [lower-alpha 25] 10% [lower-alpha 26] – [lower-alpha 27] – [lower-alpha 28] – [lower-alpha 29]
Fox News Jan 5–8, 2020808 (RV)± 3.5%36%2%4%1%1%14%15%10%2%3% [lower-alpha 30] 11%
Polling before January 2020
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size [lower-alpha 6] 		Margin
of error		Joe
Biden		Cory
Booker		Pete
Buttigieg		Kamala
Harris		Beto
O'Rourke		Bernie
Sanders		Tom
Steyer		Elizabeth
Warren		OtherUndecided
Change Research/
Post and Courier 		Dec 6–11, 2019392 (LV)± 4.9%27%5%9%––20%5%19%13% [lower-alpha 31] –
Dec 3, 2019Harris withdraws from the race
YouGov/FairVote Nov 22 – Dec 2, 2019400 (LV)± 7.5%39%2%10%2%–13%7%10%13% [lower-alpha 32] 4%
Quinnipiac University Nov 13–17, 2019768 (LV)± 4.8%33%2%6%3%–11%5%13%7% [lower-alpha 33] 18%
YouGov/CBS News Nov 6–13, 2019933 (RV)± 4.2%45%2%8%5%–15%2%17%6% [lower-alpha 34] –
University of
North Florida 		Nov 5–13, 2019426 (LV)–36%2%3%4%–10%8%10%6% [lower-alpha 35] 23%
Nov 1, 2019O'Rourke withdraws from the race
Monmouth University Oct 16–21, 2019402 (LV)± 4.9%33%2%3%6%1%12%4%16%7% [lower-alpha 36] 15%
Change Research/
Post and Courier 		Oct 15–21, 2019731 (LV)± 3.6%30%3%9%11%1%13%5%19%11% [lower-alpha 37] –
Firehouse Strategies/
Øptimus 		Oct 8–10, 2019607 (LV)± 3.7%32%2%4%5%1%8%–16%33% [lower-alpha 38] – [lower-alpha 39]
YouGov/CBS News Oct 3–11, 2019915 (RV)±3.9%43%3%4%7%1%16%2%18%6% [lower-alpha 40] –
Gravis Marketing Oct 3–7, 2019516 (LV)± 4.3%34%6%0%4%2%10%7%9%10% [lower-alpha 41] 19%
Fox News Sep 29 – Oct 2, 2019803 (LV)± 3.5%41%3%2%4%0%10%4%12%8% [lower-alpha 42] 16%
Winthrop University Sep 21–30, 2019462 (RV)± 4.9%37%3%4%7%2%8%2%17%6% [lower-alpha 43] 12%
CNN/SSRS Sep 22–26, 2019406 (LV)± 5.9%37%2%4%3%2%11%3%16%4% [lower-alpha 44] 10%
YouGov/CBS News Aug 28 – Sep 4, 2019849 (RV) [lower-alpha 45] ± 4.3%43%2%4%7%1%18%1%14%9% [lower-alpha 46] –
Change Research Aug 9–12, 2019521 (LV)± 4.3%36%4%5%12%1%16%1%17%7% [lower-alpha 47] –
Firehouse Strategies/
Øptimus 		Jul 23–25, 2019554 (LV)± 3.8%31%2%4%10%0%9%–12%8% [lower-alpha 48] 24%
Monmouth University Jul 18–22, 2019405 (LV)± 4.9%39%2%5%12%1%10%2%9%3% [lower-alpha 49] 17%
YouGov/CBS News Jul 9–18, 2019997 (RV) [lower-alpha 50] ± 3.8%39%3%5%12%2%17%1%12%9% [lower-alpha 51] –
Fox News Jul 7–10, 2019701 (LV)± 3.5%35%3%2%12%0%14%0%5%3% [lower-alpha 52] 20%
Jul 9, 2019Steyer announces his candidacy
Change Research Jun 29 – Jul 4, 2019421 (LV)–27%6%6%21%1%16%0%15%8% [lower-alpha 53] –
Change Research Jun 17–20, 2019308 (LV)–39%5%11%9%5%13%0%15%5% [lower-alpha 54] –
Change Research Jun 11–14, 2019933 (LV)± 3.2%37%5%11%9%4%9%–17%8% [lower-alpha 55] –
YouGov/CBS News May 31 – Jun 12, 2019552 (LV)–45%4%6%7%4%18%–8%8% [lower-alpha 56] –
Zogby Analytics May 23–29, 2019183 (LV)± 7.2%36%4%7%4%2%13%–12%4% [lower-alpha 57] –
Tel Opinion Research*May 22–24, 2019600 (LV)± 4.0%37%2%3%7%–10%–8%–32%
Crantford Research May 14–16, 2019381 (LV)± 5.0%42%4%8%10%–7%–8%––
Change Research May 6–9, 2019595 (LV)± 4.0%46%4%8%10%2%15%–8%5% [lower-alpha 58] –
Firehouse Strategies/
Øptimus Archived May 6, 2019, at the Wayback Machine 		Apr 30 – May 2, 2019568 (LV)± 4.5%48%4%5%4%1%12%–5%1% [lower-alpha 59] 20%
Apr 25, 2019Biden announces his candidacy
Apr 14, 2019Buttigieg announces his candidacy
Change Research Mar 31 – Apr 4, 2019744 (LV)± 3.6%32%9%7%10%9%14%–6%12% [lower-alpha 60] –
–12%12%15%16%24%–11%12% [lower-alpha 61] –
Mar 14, 2019O'Rourke announces his candidacy
Emerson College Archived April 27, 2019, at the Wayback Machine Feb 28 – Mar 2, 2019291 (LV)± 5.7%37%6%0%9%5%21%–5%16% [lower-alpha 62] –
Change Research Feb 15–18, 2019600 (LV)± 4.0%36%10%–13%8%14%–9%12% [lower-alpha 63] –
–28%1%35%–––20%18% [lower-alpha 64] –
Feb 19, 2019Sanders announces his candidacy
Feb 9, 2019Warren announces her candidacy
Firehouse Strategies/
Øptimus 		Jan 31 – Feb 2, 2019557 (LV)± 4.0%36%5%–12%2%8%–4%2% [lower-alpha 65] 31%
Head-to-head polling
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin
of error		Joe
Biden		Pete
Buttigieg		Bernie
Sanders		Elizabeth
Warren		OtherUndecided
YouGov/FairVote [lower-alpha 66] Nov 22 – Dec 2, 2019400 (LV)± 7.5%73%27%––––
66%–34%–––
61%––29% [lower-alpha 67] 6%
–39%61%–––
–36%–64%––
––54%46%––
Tel Opinion Research May 22–24, 2019600± 4.0%71%10%–––19%
70%–15%––16%
67%––15%–18%

Results

South Carolina Democratic presidential primary election results by county (vote share), 2020.svg
Popular vote share by county
  Biden—30–40%
  Biden—40–50%
  Biden—50–60%
  Biden—60–70%
  Biden—70–80%
South Carolina Democratic presidential primary election results by congressional district (vote share), 2020.svg
Popular vote share by congressional district
  Biden—30–40%
  Biden—40–50%
  Biden—50–60%
  Biden—60–70%

Official results show that Joe Biden won the Democratic primary with 48.65% of the vote, with Bernie Sanders coming in second with 19.77%. [17] [18] [19]

2020 South Carolina Democratic presidential primary [17]
CandidateVotes %Delegates [20]
Joe Biden 262,33648.6539
Bernie Sanders 106,60519.7715
Tom Steyer 61,14011.34
Pete Buttigieg 44,2178.20
Elizabeth Warren 38,1207.07
Amy Klobuchar 16,9003.13
Tulsi Gabbard 6,8131.26
Andrew Yang (withdrawn)1,0690.20
Michael Bennet (withdrawn)7650.14
Cory Booker (withdrawn)6580.12
John Delaney (withdrawn)3520.07
Deval Patrick (withdrawn)2880.05
Total539,263100%54

Results by county

Biden won every county. [21] [22]

CountyBiden %Sanders %Steyer %Buttigieg %Warren %Klobuchar %Gabbard %Others %Rejected ballotsTotal votesTurnout of registered electors in %
Abbeville 1,12957.6928614.6131215.94804.09603.07422.15261.33221.1331,96012.54
Aiken 6,76944.813,16920.981,98813.161,2468.251,0306.826074.021941.281020.673315,13813.00
Allendale 55258.2911912.5724125.4590.95171.8020.2120.2150.53094716.37
Anderson 5,56441.833,12423.491,80813.599887.439847.405243.942301.73800.611613,31811.05
Bamberg 1,09958.7727714.8138720.70261.39432.30191.0240.21150.8161,87619.82
Barnwell 1,06859.6327415.3030817.20321.79492.74261.45130.73211.1721,79313.08
Beaufort 11,27545.833,74915.243,00912.233,06712.471,6996.911,3715.572901.181430.584324,64618.81
Berkeley 10,57349.084,59821.342,0309.421,7938.321,4956.945272.453831.781430.663121,57316.23
Calhoun 1,11859.8828815.4330216.18472.52422.25341.82251.34110.5851,87217.69
Charleston 28,29244.3012,24519.174,7347.418,07812.656,93210.852,3023.601,0131.592680.428463,94821.78
Cherokee 1,81257.1467421.2234710.941043.281063.34662.08381.20250.7923,1739.60
Chester 2,03363.7763319.862236.991023.20882.76581.82230.72280.8963,19415.56
Chesterfield 1,82564.0653718.852257.90903.16762.67441.54260.91260.9232,85210.93
Clarendon 2,69468.5048712.3843411.03972.47832.11621.58360.92401.03153,94817.14
Colleton 2,31857.7667916.92641.59731.821744.3452613.111744.34260.6354,01816.00
Darlington 4,23161.111,10515.9691113.162874.152083.00861.24550.79410.59166,94016.03
Dillon 1,48564.0936215.6231913.77391.68391.68381.6480.35271.1792,32612.47
Dorchester 7,65747.553,49421.701,5099.371,4579.051,1897.384032.503161.96770.482116,12315.24
Edgefield 1,32755.8741917.6437015.58773.24893.75441.85200.84291.2172,38213.84
Fairfield 2,35261.0942811.1277320.08842.18882.29471.22501.30280.73103,86024.63
Florence 8,67658.822,63517.861,87712.735693.866074.122211.50830.56820.572914,77916.76
Georgetown 4,77652.461,57417.621,01811.396977.803764.213273.661141.28520.59168,95020.19
Greenville 20,66138.1713,37624.715,77410.675,68810.515,2079.622,3524.358301.532350.435754,18016.45
Greenwood 2,69347.881,06018.851,09119.402784.942414.291652.93571.01390.7075,63113.75
Hampton 1,11653.0931915.1854125.74331.57401.90180.86120.57231.10102,11216.46
Horry 13,28143.826,75722.293,84112.672,8779.491,7245.691,2694.193871.281750.585930,37013.02
Jasper 1,79452.7554315.9757316.851895.561223.591103.23421.23280.8353,40616.72
Kershaw 3,57755.291,08316.7489613.853615.583084.761442.23671.04340.54136,48315.37
Lancaster 4,34051.481,69520.113654.3385810.185676.734225.011121.33710.84158,44513.43
Laurens 2,41349.761,00120.6474815.432044.212445.031202.47731.51460.95104,85912.19
Lee 1,87668.8733212.1936413.36491.80531.95110.40180.66210.7672,73123.50
Lexington 9,72039.875,75823.622,82711.602,57310.552,0948.597953.265022.061110.461524,39513.00
Marion 2,73566.8762515.2850812.42601.47781.91380.93130.32330.81134,10319.52
Marlboro 1,48561.4430912.7848720.15291.20351.45341.41130.54251.0492,42613.59
McCormick 73048.1820813.7338125.15684.49422.77543.56161.06161.0641,51920.62
Newberry 1,78755.4148214.9546014.262056.361243.84832.57571.77270.8443,22913.66
Oconee 2,18137.601,39224.0074212.795609.664056.984036.95811.40360.6155,80511.07
Orangeburg 9,08969.861,38810.671,69012.992381.833702.84720.55710.55920.702013,03022.91
Pickens 2,51332.622,14127.7990111.707619.8882310.683754.871632.12270.3547,70810.45
Richland 35,86953.1511,34716.818,26912.254,4916.655,3927.991,2851.905280.783090.456567,55525.71
Saluda 78254.0126218.0924316.78543.73513.52271.86151.04140.9731,45112.52
Spartanburg 9,97742.315,87024.892,91112.341,8497.841,8167.707493.182781.181310.563123,61312.45
Sumter 8,37565.411,67313.071,66713.024063.173863.011220.95740.581010.802312,82718.34
Union 1,29557.2243019.0032214.23582.56733.23341.50190.84321.4222,26513.72
Williamsburg 3,68270.0870813.4860511.52470.89941.79190.36450.86541.04165,27024.34
York 11,55643.606,55124.721,2424.693,11011.732,3078.701,2414.683381.281590.603526,53914.44
Statewide total262,33648.65106,60519.7761,1401.3444,2178.2038,1207.0716,9003.136,8131.26121322.25794540,05716.38

Aftermath

Joe Biden's overwhelming victory, his first-ever primary win in his three presidential runs, [23] [24] gave his campaign new momentum going into Super Tuesday after lackluster performances in Iowa and New Hampshire and a distant second-place finish in Nevada. [25] The Biden campaign claimed that the outcome proved he had the most diverse coalition of any Democratic candidate, as Iowa's and New Hampshire's Democratic electorates are over 90% white, while South Carolina's Democratic electorate is nearly 60% black. [26] Biden's success in the primary helped him overtake the lead in the then-popular vote from front-runner Bernie Sanders, who came in second. [25]

Despite Pete Buttigieg's initial claims that he would stay in the race following the primary, he suspended his presidential campaign the next day. In his concession speech, Buttigieg claimed he would have a negative effect on the race if he stayed in, which many took as Buttigieg not wanting to split the moderate vote in order to assist Biden. [27] However, while Buttigieg called Biden before making his announcement, he did not immediately endorse him. One day later, on the day before Super Tuesday, Buttigieg publicly endorsed Biden while speaking at Biden's rally in Dallas, Texas. [28]

Elizabeth Warren and Amy Klobuchar both had lackluster performances in South Carolina. [29] However, both candidates stated that they expected the outcome and still had a strong chance of doing well on Super Tuesday. [30] Nonetheless, on March 2, two days after the primary and the day before Super Tuesday, Klobuchar dropped out of the race and endorsed Biden. [31]

Billionaire Tom Steyer, whose campaign was reliant on getting the black vote, dropped out after a lackluster performance in the state. Steyer's campaign had concentrated its advertising efforts on South Carolina, spending more money on television commercials in the state than all the other Democratic candidates combined. Steyer stated in his concession speech that he did not see a path to winning the presidency based on the results. [1]

On February 28, 2020, former Governor of Virginia Terry McAuliffe stated that he would consider endorsing Biden if he performed well in the South Carolina primary. [32] Shortly after it was announced that Biden would win the South Carolina primary, McAuliffe announced his endorsement on CNN. [33] In the following days, Biden received a slew of endorsements, including Virginia Congressman Robert C. Scott, U.S. senator from Illinois Tammy Duckworth (who held the Senate seat once occupied by Barack Obama), former Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, and former 2020 candidates Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar, Beto O'Rourke, and Virginia Senator and former 2016 vice presidential nominee Tim Kaine. [34] [35] [36]

Analysis

Participation in the 2020 South Carolina presidential primary was significantly higher than it was in the 2016 presidential primary. Official election results indicate that 539,263 votes were cast. [17] This total represented a marked increase over 2016's 370,904 votes [37] and even a slightly higher amount than 2008's 532,468 votes. [38]

Biden's win was deemed a major victory, as he won all 46 counties in the state. The win was largely attributed to his support from 61% of African-American voters (African-American voters make up approximately 60% of the Democratic electorate in South Carolina). [39] Before the primary on February 26, House Majority Whip and longtime U.S. Representative Jim Clyburn endorsed Biden. [40] Many cited Clyburn's endorsement as a reason for Biden's wide margin of victory, as Clyburn's endorsement was a deciding factor for many African American voters in South Carolina. [41] Thirty-six percent of all primary voters said that they made their decision after Clyburn's endorsement; of that total, 70% voted for Biden. [42] According to FiveThirtyEight , the outcome significantly boosted Biden's chance of winning multiple Super Tuesday states (especially southern states like North Carolina, Texas, and Virginia).

Sanders came in second place in the primary. He received an estimated 14% of the African-American vote, down from 16% in 2016. [43] Sanders did however win the Black youth vote. [44] Even in the Upstate region of the state, which was seen as friendly towards Sanders, [45] Biden won every county, although his margin of victory was smaller in that region than it was in other parts of South Carolina. [43]

Following the South Carolina primary, pollsters and analysts claimed that Buttigieg, Warren, and Klobuchar were losing momentum at a critical time in the race. [29] Exit polls showed that Buttigieg, who won Iowa and did well in New Hampshire, received only 2% of the black vote despite receiving endorsements from many prominent African Americans. [30] Klobuchar and Warren received little support in South Carolina, possibly because of black voters' lack of familiarity with them. [46]

Following their poor performances, Pete Buttigieg, [47] Amy Klobuchar, [48] and Tom Steyer [1] ended their presidential campaigns before Super Tuesday. This meant that moderate voters coalesced instead of splitting their votes between multiple candidates, giving Joe Biden multiple comeback wins on Super Tuesday.

Notes

  1. ↑ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined; Bloomberg included as write-in votes are not permitted in SC primaries
  2. ↑ Candidate percentages add up to more than 100%
  3. ↑ FiveThirtyEight aggregates polls with a trendline regression of polls rather than a strict average of recent polls.
  4. ↑ Bloomberg 10.3%; Write-in votes are not permitted in SC primaries; this appears to be based on trendline regression
  5. ↑ Bloomberg only in 538, so no average can be made
  6. 1 2 Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  7. ↑ Bennet with 0.14%; Booker with 0.12%; Delaney with 0.07%; Patrick with 0.05%
  8. ↑ Reported as "Someone else/Undecided"
  9. ↑ "Someone else" with 3%
  10. ↑ "Other" with 2%
  11. ↑ "Other" with 2%
  12. ↑ Accumulated responses until he withdrew; name not included afterwards.
  13. ↑ "Someone else" with 2%; Bennet and Patrick were included until they withdrew; Bennet received no voters; Patrick accumulated few enough to round down to 0%
  14. ↑ "Another candidate" with 4%
  15. ↑ Bennet and Patrick with 0%
  16. ↑ Bennet and Patrick with 0%
  17. ↑ Delaney with 1%; Bennet and Patrick with 0%
  18. ↑ The poll's sponsor, Unite the Country, is a pro-Biden super PAC.
  19. ↑ data from 538.com
  20. ↑ not released
  21. ↑ data from 538.com
  22. ↑ not released
  23. ↑ not released
  24. ↑ data from 538.com
  25. ↑ data from 538.com
  26. ↑ data from 538.com
  27. ↑ not released
  28. ↑ not released
  29. ↑ not released
  30. ↑ Booker with 2%; Bennet, Delaney, Patrick, and Williamson with 0%; "None of the above" with 1%
  31. ↑ Gabbard with 4%; Bloomberg with 3%; Klobuchar and Yang with 2%; Patrick and Williamson with 1%; Bennet, Castro and Delaney with 0%
  32. ↑ Gabbard with 4%; Yang with 3%; Bloomberg and Klobuchar with 2%; Delaney and Patrick with 1%; Bennet, Sestak and Williamson with 0%; Bullock and Castro with no voters
  33. ↑ Yang with 4%; Gabbard, Klobuchar and Williamson with 1%; Bennet, Bullock, Castro, Delaney, Messam, Patrick and Sestak with 0%
  34. ↑ Bullock, Delaney, Gabbard, and Klobuchar with 1%; Bennet, Castro, Messam, Sestak, Williamson, and Yang with 0%; someone else with 2%
  35. ↑ Bloomberg, Gabbard, Klobuchar, Williamson and Yang with 1%; Bennet, Bullock, Castro, Delaney, Messam and Sestak with 0%; someone else with 1%
  36. ↑ Klobuchar and Yang with 2%; Castro, Delaney and Gabbard with 1%; Bennet, Bullock, Ryan, Sestak and Williamson with 0%
  37. ↑ Yang with 4%; Gabbard and Klobuchar with 3%; Bennet with 1%; Bullock, Castro, Delaney, Ryan and Williamson with 0%
  38. ↑ Yang with 2%
  39. ↑ The poll did not announce this result separately; it is listed as part of 'Other'.
  40. ↑ Bennet, Klobuchar, Ryan, Williamson, and Yang with 1%; Bullock, Castro, Delaney, Gabbard, Messam, and Sestak with 0%; "someone else" with 0%
  41. ↑ Bullock, Klobuchar and Yang with 2%; Castro, Delaney, Gabbard and Williamson with 1%; Bennet and Ryan with 0%
  42. ↑ Bennet, Gabbard, Ryan, Williamson and Yang with 1%; Bullock, Castro, Delaney, Klobuchar, and Messam with < 0.5%; Sestak with 0%; someone else with 3%
  43. ↑ Yang with 2%; Gabbard, Klobuchar, Castro and "Someone else" with 1%; Delaney, Sestak and Bennet with 0%; Bullock, Messam, Ryan and Williamson with less than 0.5%
  44. ↑ Bennet, Klobuchar, Gabbard, and Williamson with 1%; Bullock, Castro, Delaney, Gabbard, Ryan, and Yang with 0%
  45. ↑ poll results among likely voters of this RV sample
  46. ↑ de Blasio, Bullock, Delaney, Gabbard, Klobuchar, Ryan, and Yang with 1%; Bennet, Castro, Messam, Sestak and Williamson with 0%; someone else with 2%
  47. ↑ Gabbard with 2%; Castro, Delaney, Klobuchar, Ryan, and Yang with 1%; Bennet, Bullock, de Blasio, Gillibrand, Inslee, Messam, and Williamson with 0%
  48. ↑ Yang with 1%; "A different Democratic candidate" with 7%
  49. ↑ Bennet and Klobuchar with 1%; Castro, de Blasio, Gabbard, Gillibrand, and Inslee with <1%; Bullock, Delaney, Gravel, Hickenlooper, Messam, Moulton, Ryan, Sestak, Williamson, and Yang with 0%
  50. ↑ poll results among likely voters of this RV sample
  51. ↑ Delaney, Hickenlooper, Inslee, Klobuchar, Ryan, Williamson, and Yang with 1%; Bennet, Bullock, Castro, de Blasio, Gabbard, Gillibrand, Gravel, Messam, Moulton, and Sestak with 0%
  52. ↑ Delaney, Williamson, and Yang with 1%; Bennet, de Blasio, Bullock, Castro, Gabbard, Gillibrand, Hickenlooper, Inslee, Klobuchar, Messam, Moulton, Ryan, and Sestak with 0%
  53. ↑ Gabbard with 2%; Bennet, Bullock, Castro, Delaney, Hickenlooper, Williamson, and Yang with 1%; Gravel, Inslee, Moulton, Ryan, and Swalwell with 0%
  54. ↑ Yang with 2%; Bullock, de Blasio, and Ryan with 1%; Castro, Delaney, Gabbard, Gillibrand, Gravel, Hickenlooper, Inslee, Klobuchar, Messam, Moulton, Swalwell, and Williamson with 0%
  55. ↑ Yang with 3%; de Blasio, Gabbard, Gillibrand, Klobuchar, and Williamson with 1%; Bennet, Delaney, Gravel, Hickenlooper, Messam, Moulton, Ryan, and Swalwell with 0%
  56. ↑ Gillibrand, Gravel, Klobuchar, Messam, and Yang with 1%; Bennet, Bullock, Castro, de Blasio, Delaney, Gabbard, Hickenlooper, Inslee, Moulton, Ryan, Swalwell, and Williamson with 0%; others with 3%
  57. ↑ Gillibrand with 2%; Castro, Gabbard, Hickenlooper, and Inslee with 1%; Delaney, Klobuchar, and Yang with 0%
  58. ↑ Yang with 2%; Abrams, Klobuchar, and Williamson with 1%; Bennet, Castro, Delaney, Gabbard, Gillibrand, Hickenlooper, Inslee, Ryan, and Swalwell with 0%
  59. ↑ Klobuchar with 1%
  60. ↑ Abrams with 7%; Castro, Gillibrand, Hickenlooper, Klobuchar, and Yang with 1%; Bennet, Delaney, Gabbard, Inslee, McAuliffe, Swalwell, and Williamson with 0%
  61. ↑ Castro, Gillibrand, Hickenlooper, and Klobuchar with 2%; Delaney, Inslee, Messam, and Yang with 1%; Gabbard and Williamson with 0%
  62. ↑ Gillibrand with 3%; Bloomberg and Gabbard with 2%: Brown and Klobuchar with 1%; Castro, and Delaney with 0%; others with 8%
  63. ↑ Brown and Holder with 2%; Bloomberg, Castro, Gabbard, Gillibrand, Hickenlooper, Klobuchar, Swalwell, and Yang with 1%; Bennet, Cuomo, de Blasio, Delaney, McAuliffe, and Williamson with 0%
  64. ↑ Klobuchar with 5%; Castro with 4%; Delaney with 3%; Gabbard and Williamson with 2%; Gillibrand and Yang with 1%
  65. ↑ Klobuchar with 1%; Gillibrand with 0%
  66. ↑ But for the Biden vs Warren matchup, 'undecided' and 'other' voters are not included in the listed percentages for this poll.
  67. ↑ Would not vote with 4%

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References

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