Consumer credit risk

Last updated

The following article is based on UK market, other countries may differ.

Contents

Consumer credit risk (also retail credit risk) is the risk of loss due to a consumer's failure or inability to repay (default) on a consumer credit product, such as a mortgage, unsecured personal loan, credit card, overdraft etc. (the latter two options being forms of unsecured banking credit).

Consumer credit risk management

Most companies involved in lending to consumers have departments dedicated to the measurement, prediction and control of losses due to credit risk. This field is loosely referred to consumer/retail credit risk management, however, the word management is commonly dropped.

Scorecards

A common method for predicting credit risk is through the credit scorecard. The scorecard is a statistically based model for attributing a number (score) to a customer (or an account) which indicates the predicted probability that the customer will exhibit a certain behaviour. In calculating the score, a range of data sources may be used, including data from an application form, from credit reference agencies or from products the customer already holds with the lender.

The most widespread type of scorecard in use is the application scorecard, which lenders employ when a customer applies for a new credit product. The scorecard tries to predict the probability that the customer, if given the product, would become "bad" within a given timeframe, incurring losses for the lender. The exact definition of what constitutes "bad" varies across different lenders, product types and target markets, however, examples may be "missing three payments within the next 18 months" or "default within the next 12 months". The score given to a customer is usually a three or four digit integer, and in most cases is proportional to the natural logarithm of the odds (or logit) of the customer becoming "bad". In general, a low score indicates a low quality (a high chance of going "bad") and a high score indicates the opposite.

Other scorecard types may include behavioural scorecards - which try to predict the probability of an existing account turning "bad"; propensity scorecards - which try to predict the probability that a customer would accept another product if offered one; and collections scorecards - which try to predict a customer's response to different strategies for collecting owed money.

Credit strategy

Credit strategy is concerned with turning predictions of customer behavior (as provided by scorecards) into a decision whether to accept their business.

To turn an application score into a Yes/No decision, "cut-offs" are generally used. A cut-off is a score at and above which customers have their application accepted and below which applications are declined. The placement of the cut-off is closely linked to the price (annual percentage rate – APR) that the lender is charging for the product. The higher the price charged, the greater the losses the lender can endure and still remain profitable. So, with a higher price the lender can accept customers with a higher probability of going "bad" and can move the cut-off down. The opposite is true of a lower price. Most lenders go further and charge low scoring customers a higher APR than high scoring customers. This compensates for the added risk of taking on poorer quality business without affecting the lender's place in the market with better quality borrowers. In the UK, lenders must advertise a typical rate, which at least 51% of customers must receive.

Application score is also used as a factor in deciding such things as an overdraft or credit card limit. Lenders are generally happier to extend a larger limit to higher scoring customers than to lower scoring customers, because they are more likely to pay borrowings back.

Alongside scorecards lie policy rules which apply regulatory requirements (such as making sure there is no lending to under 18s) and other lending policy (such as many lenders will not lend to customers who have a County Court judgment (CCJ) registered against them).

Credit Strategy is also concerned with the ongoing management of a customer's account, especially with revolving credit products such as credit cards, overdrafts and flexible loans, where the customer's balance can go up as well as down. Behavioural scorecards are used (usually monthly) to provide an updated picture of the credit-quality of the customer/account. As the customer's profile changes, the lender may choose to extend or contract the customer's limits.

Underwriting

Not all decisions can be made automatically through the methods mentioned above. This may be for a number of reasons; insufficient data, regulatory requirements, or a borderline decision. In such cases highly trained professionals called underwriters manually review the case and make a decision. Sometimes this is done in conjunction with the "cut-offs" mentioned above and the data provided by scoring. This is more common in highly regulated products such as mortgages, especially when large sums are involved.

See also

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Loan</span> Lending of money

In finance, a loan is the lending of money by one or more individuals, organizations, or other entities to other individuals, organizations, etc. The recipient incurs a debt and is usually liable to pay interest on that debt until it is repaid as well as to repay the principal amount borrowed.

A credit risk is risk of default on a debt that may arise from a borrower failing to make required payments. In the first resort, the risk is that of the lender and includes lost principal and interest, disruption to cash flows, and increased collection costs. The loss may be complete or partial. In an efficient market, higher levels of credit risk will be associated with higher borrowing costs. Because of this, measures of borrowing costs such as yield spreads can be used to infer credit risk levels based on assessments by market participants.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Payday loan</span> Small, short-term unsecured loan

A payday loan is a short-term unsecured loan, often characterized by high interest rates.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Consumer behaviour</span> Study of individuals, groups, or organizations and all the activities associated with consuming

Consumer behavior is the study of individuals, groups, or organizations and all the activities associated with the purchase, use and disposal of goods and services. Consumer behaviour consists of how the consumer's emotions, attitudes, and preferences affect buying behaviour. Consumer behaviour emerged in the 1940–1950s as a distinct sub-discipline of marketing, but has become an interdisciplinary social science that blends elements from psychology, sociology, social anthropology, anthropology, ethnography, ethnology, marketing, and economics.

Predatory lending refers to unethical practices conducted by lending organizations during a loan origination process that are unfair, deceptive, or fraudulent. While there are no internationally agreed legal definitions for predatory lending, a 2006 audit report from the office of inspector general of the US Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) broadly defines predatory lending as "imposing unfair and abusive loan terms on borrowers", though "unfair" and "abusive" were not specifically defined. Though there are laws against some of the specific practices commonly identified as predatory, various federal agencies use the phrase as a catch-all term for many specific illegal activities in the loan industry. Predatory lending should not be confused with predatory mortgage servicing which is mortgage practices described by critics as unfair, deceptive, or fraudulent practices during the loan or mortgage servicing process, post loan origination.

Underwriting (UW) services are provided by some large financial institutions, such as banks, insurance companies and investment houses, whereby they guarantee payment in case of damage or financial loss and accept the financial risk for liability arising from such guarantee. An underwriting arrangement may be created in a number of situations including insurance, issues of security in a public offering, and bank lending, among others. The person or institution that agrees to sell a minimum number of securities of the company for commission is called the underwriter.

The buying decision process is the decision-making process used by consumers regarding the market transactions before, during, and after the purchase of a good or service. It can be seen as a particular form of a cost–benefit analysis in the presence of multiple alternatives.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Unsecured debt</span> Obligation of repayment without a collateral

In finance, unsecured debt refers to any type of debt or general obligation that is not protected by a guarantor, or collateralized by a lien on specific assets of the borrower in the case of a bankruptcy or liquidation or failure to meet the terms for repayment. Unsecured debts are sometimes called signature debt or personal loans. These differ from secured debt such as a mortgage, which is backed by a piece of real estate.

A credit history is a record of a borrower's responsible repayment of debts. A credit report is a record of the borrower's credit history from a number of sources, including banks, credit card companies, collection agencies, and governments. A borrower's credit score is the result of a mathematical algorithm applied to a credit report and other sources of information to predict future delinquency.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Second mortgage</span>

Second mortgages, commonly referred to as junior liens, are loans secured by a property in addition to the primary mortgage. Depending on the time at which the second mortgage is originated, the loan can be structured as either a standalone second mortgage or piggyback second mortgage. Whilst a standalone second mortgage is opened subsequent to the primary loan, those with a piggyback loan structure are originated simultaneously with the primary mortgage. With regard to the method in which funds are withdrawn, second mortgages can be arranged as home equity loans or home equity lines of credit. Home equity loans are granted for the full amount at the time of loan origination in contrast to home equity lines of credit which permit the homeowner access to a predetermined amount which is repaid during the repayment period.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Financial risk</span> Any of various types of risk associated with financing

Financial risk is any of various types of risk associated with financing, including financial transactions that include company loans in risk of default. Often it is understood to include only downside risk, meaning the potential for financial loss and uncertainty about its extent.

An insurance score – also called an insurance credit score – is a numerical point system based on select credit report characteristics. There is no direct relationship to financial credit scores used in lending decisions, as insurance scores are not intended to measure creditworthiness, but rather to predict risk. Insurance companies use insurance scores for underwriting decisions, and to partially determine charges for premiums. Insurance scores are applied in personal product lines, namely homeowners and private passenger automobile insurance, and typically not elsewhere.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Overdraft</span> Payments from a bank account exceeding the balance

An overdraft occurs when something is withdrawn in excess of what is in a current account. For financial systems, this can be funds in a bank account. For water resources, it can be groundwater in an aquifer. In these situations the account is said to be "overdrawn". In the economic system, if there is a prior agreement with the account provider for an overdraft, and the amount overdrawn is within the authorized overdraft limit, then interest is normally charged at the agreed rate. If the negative balance exceeds the agreed terms, then additional fees may be charged and higher interest rates may apply.

Loan origination is the process by which a borrower applies for a new loan, and a lender processes that application. Origination generally includes all the steps from taking a loan application up to disbursal of funds. For mortgages, there is a specific mortgage origination process. Loan servicing covers everything after disbursing the funds until the loan is fully paid off. Loan origination is a specialized version of new account opening for financial services organizations. Certain people and organizations specialize in loan origination. Mortgage brokers and other mortgage originator companies serve as a prominent example.

A credit score is a numerical expression based on a level analysis of a person's credit files, to represent the creditworthiness of an individual. A credit score is primarily based on a credit report, information typically sourced from credit bureaus.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Line of credit</span> Arranged ability to borrow money

A line of credit is a credit facility extended by a bank or other financial institution to a government, business or individual customer that enables the customer to draw on the facility when the customer needs funds. A line of credit takes several forms, such as an overdraft limit, demand loan, special purpose, export packing credit, term loan, discounting, purchase of commercial bills, traditional revolving credit card account, etc. It is effectively a source of funds that can readily be tapped at the borrower's discretion. Interest is paid only on money actually withdrawn. Lines of credit can be secured by collateral, or may be unsecured.

Credit rationing is the limiting by lenders of the supply of additional credit to borrowers who demand funds at a set quoted rate by the financial institution. It is an example of market failure, as the price mechanism fails to bring about equilibrium in the market. It should not be confused with cases where credit is simply "too expensive" for some borrowers, that is, situations where the interest rate is deemed too high. With credit rationing, the borrower would like to acquire the funds at the current rates, and the imperfection is the absence of supply from the financial institutions, despite willing borrowers. In other words, at the prevailing market interest rate, demand exceeds supply, but lenders are willing neither to lend enough additional funds to satisfy demand, nor to raise the interest rate they charge borrowers because they are already maximising profits, or are using a cautious approach to continuing to meet their capital reserve requirements.

Credit analysis is the understanding and evaluation to check if an individual, organization, or business is worthy of credit.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Bank</span> Financial institution that accepts deposits

A bank is a financial institution that accepts deposits from the public and creates a demand deposit while simultaneously making loans. Lending activities can be directly performed by the bank or indirectly through capital markets.

A business loan is a loan specifically intended for business purposes. As with all loans, it involves the creation of a debt, which will be repaid with added interest. There are a number of different types of business loans, including bank loans, mezzanine financing, asset-based financing, invoice financing, microloans, business cash advances and cash flow loans.

References