2015 United States gubernatorial elections

2015 United States gubernatorial elections

←  2014 November 3, 2015 November 21 (Louisiana runoff) 2016  →
3 governorships [lower-alpha 1]
Majority party Minority party   Party Republican Democratic Seats before 31 18 Seats after 31 18 Seat change Popular vote 1,494,011 1,305,187 Percentage 52.52% 45.88% Seats up 2 1 Seats won 2 1
Map of the results      Democratic gain     Republican gain      Republican hold      No election

United States gubernatorial elections were held in three states in 2015 as part of the 2015 United States elections. In Kentucky and Mississippi, the elections were held on November 3, and in Louisiana, as no candidate received a majority of votes at the primary election on October 24, 2015, a runoff election was held on November 21. The last regular gubernatorial elections for all three states were in 2011. Democrats picked up the open seat of term-limited Republican Bobby Jindal in Louisiana, while Republicans re-elected incumbent Phil Bryant in Mississippi and picked up the seat of term-limited Democrat Steve Beshear in Kentucky.

As of 2023, this is the last time that Republicans won the governorship in Kentucky.

Election predictions

Several sites and individuals publish predictions of competitive seats. These predictions look at factors such as the strength of the incumbent (if the incumbent is running for re-election), the strength of the candidates, and the partisan leanings of the state (reflected in part by the state's Cook Partisan Voting Index rating). The predictions assign ratings to each state, with the rating indicating the predicted advantage that a party has in winning that seat.

Most election predictors use:

• "tossup": no advantage
• "tilt" (used by some predictors): advantage that is not quite as strong as "lean"
• "lean": slight advantage
• "likely": significant, but surmountable, advantage
• "safe" or "solid": near-certain chance of victory

State	PVI	Incumbent [1]	Last race	Cook Aug 25, 2016 [2]	IE Aug 21, 2015 [3]	Sabato Oct 29, 2015 [4]	DKE Oct 29, 2015 [5]	Result
Kentucky	R+13	Steve Beshear (term-limited)	55.7% D	Tossup	Tilt D	Lean D	Tossup	Bevin 52.5% R (flip)
Louisiana	R+12	Bobby Jindal (term-limited)	65.8% R	Lean D (flip)	Tossup	Lean D (flip)	Tossup	Edwards 56.1% D (flip)
Mississippi	R+9	Phil Bryant	61.0% R	Solid R	Solid R	Safe R	Safe R	Bryant 66.2% R

Race summary

State	Incumbent			Results
State	Governor	Party	First elected	Status	Candidates
Kentucky	Steve Beshear	Democratic	2007	Incumbent term-limited. New governor elected. Republican gain.	▌Y Matt Bevin (Republican) 52.5% ▌ Jack Conway (Democratic) 43.8% ▌ Drew Curtis (Independent) 3.7%
Louisiana	Bobby Jindal	Republican	2007	Incumbent term-limited. New governor elected. Democratic gain.	▌Y John Bel Edwards (Democratic) 56.1% ▌ David Vitter (Republican) 43.9%
Mississippi	Phil Bryant	Republican	2011	Incumbent re-elected. [6]	▌Y Phil Bryant (Republican) 66.4% ▌Robert Gray (Democratic) 32.4% ▌Shawn O'Hara (Reform) 1.4%

Closest races

States where the margin of victory was under 10%:

1. Kentucky, 8.70%

Red denotes states won by Republicans.

Kentucky

2015 Kentucky gubernatorial election

←  2011 November 3, 2015 (2015-11-03) 2019  →

Nominee Matt Bevin Jack Conway Party Republican Democratic Running mate Jenean Hampton Sannie Overly Popular vote 511,374 426,620 Percentage 52.5% 43.8%

County results Bevin:      40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90% Conway:      40–50%     50–60%

Governor before election Steve Beshear Democratic Elected Governor Matt Bevin Republican

Main article: 2015 Kentucky gubernatorial election

Two-term incumbent Democratic Governor Steve Beshear, was unable to run for a third term in 2015 due to term limits established under the Kentucky Constitution. To succeed Beshear, Democrats nominated Attorney General of Kentucky Jack Conway. Conway's running mate was State Representative Sannie Overly. ^[7] For the Republicans, businessman and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014 Matt Bevin ran on a ticket with Tea Party activist and 2014 State House candidate Jenean Hampton. ^[8] Bevin narrowly defeated Agriculture Commissioner James Comer to win the Republican nomination. Drew Curtis, the founder of Fark, ran as an independent, polling well enough to appear in the Bluegrass Poll gubernatorial debate. ^[9] Bevin ultimately defeated Conway, winning 53% of the vote to Conway's 44%.

Kentucky Democratic primary ^[10]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Jack Conway	140,627	78.78
	Democratic	Geoff Young	37,887	21.22
Total votes			178,514	100.00

Kentucky Republican primary ^[10]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Matt Bevin	70,480	32.91
	Republican	James Comer	70,397	32.89
	Republican	Hal Heiner	57,951	27.10
	Republican	Will T. Scott	15,365	7.20
Total votes			214,187	100.00

Kentucky general election ^[11]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	Matt Bevin	511,374	52.52	17.23
	Democratic	Jack Conway	426,620	43.82	11.90
	Independent	Drew Curtis	35,597	3.66	5.33
Total votes			973,692	100.00
	Republican gain from Democratic

Louisiana

2015 Louisiana gubernatorial election

←  2011 November 21, 2015 (2015-11-21) 2019  →

Nominee John Bel Edwards David Vitter Party Democratic Republican Popular vote 646,924 505,940 Percentage 56.1% 43.9%

Parish results Edwards:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90% Vitter:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%

Governor before election Bobby Jindal Republican Elected Governor John Bel Edwards Democratic

Main article: 2015 Louisiana gubernatorial election

See also: 2015 Louisiana lieutenant gubernatorial election

Two-term incumbent Republican Governor Bobby Jindal was term-limited in 2015 and thus unable to seek reelection. Under Louisiana's jungle primary system, all candidates, regardless of party, appear on the same ballot. The primary was held on October 24, 2015, with Democrat John Bel Edwards at 40% of the vote and Republican David Vitter at 23%. As no candidate won a majority of the vote, a runoff election between Edwards and Vitter was held on November 21, 2015. ^[12] Edwards won the runoff election with 56.1% of the vote, becoming the first Democrat to win a statewide election in Louisiana since 2008.

Three Republicans ran for the office: Public Service Commissioner and former Lieutenant Governor of Louisiana Scott Angelle, ^{[13] [14]} incumbent Lieutenant Governor Jay Dardenne ^[15] and U.S. Senator David Vitter. ^[16] Potential Republican candidates included former Secretary of the Louisiana Department of Veterans Affairs and former U.S. Representative Rodney Alexander, ^[17] Louisiana State Treasurer John Neely Kennedy, ^[18] State Senator Gerald Long ^[19] and former governor, former U.S. Representative and candidate for president in 2012 Buddy Roemer. ^[20]

Three Democrats ran: 2011 candidate Cary Deaton, ^[21] Minority Leader of the Louisiana House of Representatives John Bel Edwards ^{[13] [22]} and minister Jeremy Odom. ^[23]

Louisiana jungle primary ^[24]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	John Bel Edwards	444,517	39.89
	Republican	David Vitter	256,300	23.00
	Republican	Scott Angelle	214,982	19.29
	Republican	Jay Dardenne	166,656	14.96
	Democratic	Cary Deaton	11,763	1.06
	Democratic	S. L. Simpson	7,420	0.67
	Independent	Beryl Billiot	5,694	0.51
	Independent	Jeremy Odom	4,756	0.43
	Independent	Eric Orgeron	2,248	0.20
Total votes			1,114,336	100.00

Louisiana general election ^[25]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Democratic	John Bel Edwards	646,924	56.11	27.95
	Republican	David Vitter	505,940	43.89	21.91
Total votes			1,152,864	100.00
	Democratic gain from Republican

Mississippi

2015 Mississippi gubernatorial election

←  2011 November 3, 2015 (2015-11-03) 2019  →

Nominee Phil Bryant Robert Gray Party Republican Democratic Popular vote 480,399 234,858 Percentage 66.2% 32.4%

County results Bryant:     40-50%     50-60%     60-70%     70-80%     80-90% Gray:     40–50%     50-60%     60-70%     70-80%

Governor before election Phil Bryant Republican Elected Governor Phil Bryant Republican

Main article: 2015 Mississippi gubernatorial election

One-term incumbent Republican Governor Phil Bryant nominated for a second and final term. ^{[6] [26]} He had won a resounding victory over his Democratic opponent four years earlier, carrying 61% of the vote. Truck driver Robert Gray was nominated by the Democrats to oppose Bryant in the general election. ^[26] Bryant won the election in a landslide, winning 67% of the vote to Gray's 32%.

Mississippi Republican primary ^[27]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Phil Bryant (incumbent)	256,689	91.86
	Republican	Mitch Young	22,738	8.14
Total votes			279,427	100.00

Mississippi Democratic primary ^[28]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Robert Gray	152,087	50.80
	Democratic	Vicki Slater	91,104	30.43
	Democratic	Valerie Short	56,177	18.77
Total votes			299,368	100.00

Mississippi general election ^[29]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±%
	Republican	Phil Bryant (incumbent)	480,399	66.24
	Democratic	Robert Gray	234,858	32.38
	Reform	Shawn O'Hara	9,950	1.37	n/a
Total votes			725,207	100.00
	Republican hold

Notes

1. Alaska's governorship was held by an independent, so the number of seats held by Democrats and Republicans added up to only 49.

References

1. Parentheses around an incumbent's name indicates that the incumbent is retiring, possibly due to term limits.
2. "2015/2016 GOVERNORS RACE RATINGS". Cook Political Report. Archived from the original on March 5, 2013. Retrieved December 12, 2014.
3. "2016 Race Ratings". Roll Call. Roll Call. Retrieved January 13, 2015.
4. "2016 Governor". Sabato's Crystal Ball. UVA Center for Politics. Retrieved January 24, 2015.
5. "Election Outlook: 2016 Race Ratings". Daily Kos. Retrieved October 21, 2015.
6. AP (January 20, 2015). "Gov. Bryant outlines priorities in State of the State". The Clarion-Ledger. Retrieved January 24, 2015.
7. Ryan Alessi (May 5, 2014). "Jack Conway set to announce 2015 ticket for governor with Rep. Sannie Overly". Mycn2.com. Retrieved May 6, 2014.
8. Bruggeman, Karyn (January 27, 2015). "Matt Bevin to Make Shock Run for Kentucky Governor". National Journal . Retrieved January 27, 2015.
9. Youngman, Sam. "Drew Curtis will join debate on Kentucky Sports Radio, but other fall debates look iffy". Kentucky.com. Retrieved September 29, 2015.
10. "Results" (PDF). elect.ky.gov. 2015. Retrieved 2019-11-05.
11. Alan Blinder (4 November 2015). "Matt Bevin, Republican, Wins Governor's Race in Kentucky - The New York Times". The New York Times . Retrieved 2019-11-06.
12. Deslatte, Melinda (25 October 2015). "Republican David Vitter reaches Louisiana governor's runoff against Democrat John Bel Edwards". U.S. News & World Report. AP. Retrieved 26 October 2015.
13. Alford, Jeremy (May 6, 2013). "Saved by the Bel?". Gambit . Retrieved May 13, 2013.
14. Avery, Cole (October 2, 2014). "Scott Angelle to run for governor in 2015". The Times-Picayune . Retrieved October 2, 2014.
15. Adelson, Jeff (March 20, 2013). "Lt. Gov. Jay Dardenne 'intends' to run for governor in 2015". The Times-Picayune . Retrieved May 13, 2013.
16. "David Vitter Announces Run for Governor". Roll Call. January 21, 2014. Archived from the original on January 22, 2014. Retrieved January 21, 2014.
17. "Alexander says he may run for Louisiana governor in 2015". The Town Talk. August 13, 2013. Archived from the original on August 15, 2013. Retrieved August 15, 2013.
18. "Louisiana poll: Vitter edges Georges, Jindal's popularity, jobs and economy tops". Bayoubuzz.com. June 20, 2012. Retrieved February 5, 2013.
19. "Long weighs bid for governor in 2015". The Advocate. August 11, 2012. Archived from the original on October 28, 2014. Retrieved January 30, 2013.
20. Greater New Orleans (December 12, 2013). "Buddy Roemer to spearhead long-term policy initiative ahead of 2015 election". NOLA.com. Retrieved December 18, 2013.
21. WWLTV.com (July 26, 2013). "Edwards running to correct what he calls Jindal's mistakes | wwltv.com New Orleans". Wwltv.com. Archived from the original on October 19, 2013. Retrieved December 18, 2013.
22. Adelson, Jeff (February 10, 2013). "John Bel Edwards announces he is running for governor in 2015". The New Orleans Times-Picayune. Retrieved February 21, 2013.
23. "Natchitoches minister makes run for governor". KNOE.com. March 4, 2014. Archived from the original on October 28, 2014. Retrieved March 5, 2014.
24. "Louisiana Secretary of State - Election Results".
25. "Louisiana Secretary of State - Election Results".
26. Pettus, Emily Wagster (August 5, 2015). "Truck Driver Wins Dem Nomination for Mississippi Governor". ABC News. AP.
27. "2015 REPUBLICAN PRIMARY". Mississippi Secretary of State. Archived from the original on February 25, 2021. Retrieved August 18, 2019.
28. "2015 DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY". Mississippi Secretary of State . Retrieved August 18, 2019.
29. "2015 General Election". Archived from the original on 2021-02-25. Retrieved 2021-01-29.