Conflict escalation

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Conflict escalation is the process by which conflicts grow in severity or scale over time. That may refer to conflicts between individuals or groups in interpersonal relationships, or it may refer to the escalation of hostilities in a political or military context. In systems theory, the process of conflict escalation is modeled by positive feedback. Conflict escalation can be modeled with game theory. [1]

Contents

While the word escalation was used as early as in 1938, it was popularized during the Cold War by two important books: On Escalation (Herman Kahn, 1965) and Escalation and the Nuclear Option (Bernard Brodie, 1966). [2] In those contexts, it especially referred to war between two major states with weapons of mass destruction during the Cold War.

Conflict escalation has a tactical role in military conflict and is often formalized with explicit rules of engagement. Highly-successful military tactics exploit a particular form of conflict escalation such as by controlling an opponent's reaction time, which allows the tactician to pursue or trap his opponent. Both Napoleon Bonaparte and Heinz Guderian advocated that approach. Sun Tzu elaborated it in a more abstract form and maintained that military strategy was about minimizing escalation and diplomacy was about eliminating it.

Continuum of force

The United States Marine Corps' "Continuum of Force" (found in MCRP 3-02B)[ clarification needed ] documents the stages of conflict escalation in combat for a typical subject:

Level 1: Compliant (cooperative)

The subject responds to and obeys verbal commands. He refrains from close combat.

Level 2: Resistant (passive)

The subject resists verbal commands but complies to commands immediately upon contact controls. He refrains from close combat.

Level 3: Resistant (active)

Initially, the subject physically resists commands, but he can be made to comply by compliance techniques, including come-along holds, soft-handed stunning blows, and techniques inducing pain by joint manipulation and pressure points.

Level 4: Assaultive (bodily harm)

The unarmed subject physically attacks his opponent. He can be controlled by certain defensive tactics, including blocks, strikes, kicks, enhanced pain compliance procedures, impact weapon blocks, and blows.

Level 5: Assaultive (lethal force)

The subject has a weapon and will likely kill or injure someone unless he is controlled. That is possible only by lethal force, which possibly requires firearms or weapons. This could also include the subject physically overpowering someone and choking them out, which will cause injury or death if sustained for a long period of time.

Prediction and forecasting

Conflict escalation forecasts have been increasing in reliability. [3] Asymmetric warfare can in some situations lead to presistent conflict escalation. [4] A Fait accompli can result in rewards for short periods of conflict escalation. [5] Appeasement can in some situations lead to conflict escalation. [6]

De-escalation

A major focus of peace and conflict theory is concerned with conflict resolution, curbing conflict escalation or creating a mindset to avoid such conflict in future and instead to engage in peacemaking.

Nonviolence

Conflict resolution includes nonviolence approaches, such as protests or strikes. Mohandas Gandhi, claimed following:[ citation needed ]

With that method of escalation, Gandhi avoided technological escalation and demonstrated to those in power the following:

Systems view

Carol Moore, a later theorist, examined and described Gandhi's methods from the perspective of systems theory.[ citation needed ] Jay Forrester and Donella Meadows observed that people in crisis would often push the twelve leverage points towards escalation in the first stage and then reduce escalation when the resistance had weakened, and it was impossible to maintain the status quo.[ citation needed ]

See also

Related Research Articles

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Asymmetric warfare</span> A war between belligerents whose relative military power differs significantly

Asymmetric warfare is a type of war between belligerents whose relative military power, strategy, or tactics differ significantly. This type of warfare often, but not necessarily, involves insurgents or resistance movement militias who may have the status of unlawful combatants against a standing army.

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Ultimatum</span> Final demand backed up by a threat

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Brinkmanship</span> Political and military tactic

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Fourth-generation warfare (4GW) is conflict characterized by a blurring of the distinction between war and politics, and of the distinction between combatants and civilians.

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Pain compliance is the use of painful stimulus to control or direct an organism.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Tactical nuclear weapon</span> Nuclear weapon designed for use on a battlefield

A tactical nuclear weapon (TNW) or non-strategic nuclear weapon (NSNW) is a nuclear weapon that is designed to be used on a battlefield in military situations, mostly with friendly forces in proximity and perhaps even on contested friendly territory. Generally smaller in explosive power, they are defined in contrast to strategic nuclear weapons, which are designed mostly to be targeted at the enemy interior far away from the war front against military bases, cities, towns, arms industries, and other hardened or larger-area targets to damage the enemy's ability to wage war. As of 2024, no tactical nuclear weapons have ever been used in combat.

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Use of force continuum</span> Guidelines for police conduct

A use of force continuum is a standard that provides law enforcement officers and civilians with guidelines as to how much force may be used against a resisting subject in a given situation. In some ways, it is similar to the U.S. military's escalation of force (EOF). The purpose of these models is to clarify, both for law enforcement officers and civilians, the complex subject of use of force. They are often central parts of law enforcement agencies' use of force policies. Various criminal justice agencies have developed different models of the continuum, and there is no universal or standard model. Generally, each different agency will have their own use of force policy. Some agencies may separate some of the hand-to-hand based use of force. For example, take-downs and pressure point techniques may be one step before actual strikes and kicks. Also, for some agencies the use of aerosol pepper spray and electronic control devices (TASER) may fall into the same category as take-downs, or the actual strikes.

In nuclear strategy, a counterforce target is one that has a military value, such as a launch silo for intercontinental ballistic missiles, an airbase at which nuclear-armed bombers are stationed, a homeport for ballistic missile submarines, or a command and control installation.

Compellence is a form of coercion that attempts to get an actor to change its behavior through threats to use force or the actual use of limited force. Compellence can be more clearly described as "a political-diplomatic strategy that aims to influence an adversary's will or incentive structure. It is a strategy that combines threats of force, and, if necessary, the limited and selective use of force in discrete and controlled increments, in a bargaining strategy that includes positive inducements. The aim is to induce an adversary to comply with one's demands, or to negotiate the most favorable compromise possible, while simultaneously managing the crisis to prevent unwanted military escalation."

References

  1. Brams, Steven J.; Kilgour, D. Marc (1987). "Threat Escalation and Crisis Stability: A Game-theoretic Analysis". The American Political Science Review. 81 (3): 833–850. doi:10.2307/1962679. JSTOR   1962679.
  2. Freedman, Lawrence (1993). The evolution of nuclear strategy (2nd ed.). New York: St Martin's press. pp. 198–199. ISBN   0-312-02843-1.
  3. Hegre, Håvard; Metternich, Nils W.; Nygård, Håvard Mokleiv; Wucherpfennig, Julian (2017). "Introduction". Journal of Peace Research. 54 (2): 113–124. doi:10.1177/0022343317691330.
  4. Langlois, Jean-Pierre P.; Langlois, Catherine C. (2005). "Fully Informed and on the Road to Ruin: The Perfect Failure of Asymmetric Deterrence". International Studies Quarterly. 49 (3): 503–528. doi:10.1111/j.1468-2478.2005.00375.x.
  5. Tarar, Ahmer (2016). "A Strategic Logic of the Military Fait Accompli". International Studies Quarterly. 60 (4): 742–752. doi:10.1093/isq/sqw018.
  6. McKeil, Aaron (2021-07-09). "The Limits of Realism after Liberal Hegemony". Journal of Global Security Studies. 7: ogab020. doi: 10.1093/jogss/ogab020 . ISSN   2057-3170.