Katherine Calvin

Last updated
Katherine Calvin
Katherine Calvin (NHQ202201100001 002).jpg
Alma mater University of Maryland
Stanford University
Known forContributions to US National Climate Assessment and IPCC special reports on climate change
Scientific career
FieldsEarth science, Integrated assessment, Land use, Climate science
InstitutionsNASA, Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, University of Maryland, US Energy Information Administration

Katherine Calvin (born in the 1980s) is NASA's Chief Scientist and Senior Climate Advisor. [1] In July 2023, she was elected co-chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Working Group III. [2] [3] As an earth scientist at the Joint Global Change Research Institute (JGCRI), she has researched human use of global resources using Earth modeling systems at JGCRI under the direction of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and the University of Maryland. She has contributed to the third US National Climate Assessment as well as two special reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

Contents

Education

Calvin attended the University of Maryland from 1999 to 2003 where she earned bachelor's degrees in computer science and mathematics. She then attended Stanford University where she earned her master's degree and PhD in management science and engineering. [4] While earning her PhD, Calvin worked at the US Energy Information Administration for two years as an international energy analyst. [5] She completed her thesis, titled "Participation in international environmental agreements : a game-theoretic study" in 2008. [6]

Career and research

After completing her PhD in 2008, Calvin began working at PNNL. [7] She works in College Park Maryland with JGCRI's Global Change Assessment Model, a system for exploring and analyzing the relationships between Earth systems in response to global climate change. [8] [4] Her research simulates the interaction between global resources, focusing on the impact of land, water, and energy use through an environmental and socioeconomic lens. [4] [5] In her eleven years at PNNL, Calvin has co-authored over 90 PNNL publications, 20 of which she was the primary author. Her recent publications have investigated growing populations against agriculture and water scarcity in the face of climate change. [9] [10] [11]

In 2015, Calvin was selected to serve on a National Academy of Sciences research committee on models of the world. [12] The committee was commissioned by the National Geospatial Intelligence Agency to create various models for interrelated global systems such as economics, politics, and environment. The committee successfully concluded its research the following year, and its findings were published under the National Academies Press. [5] [13]

National Climate Assessment

Calvin was a lead author on the "Mitigation" chapter of the United States' third National Climate Assessment in 2014. [14] The chapter describes the degree that which reduced global carbon dioxide emissions would alleviate the effects of climate change and concludes that the world's governments would need to heavily reduce the amount of global carbon dioxide emissions by the end of the century in order limit the global increase in temperature to 3-5 °F (1.6-2.7 °C). The chapter closes by offering potential measures to reduce the United States' greenhouse gas emissions. [15]

IPCC Special Reports

Calvin has contributed to two IPCC special reports on climate change. In 2018 the IPCC used Calvin's research on its Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C. [16] Calvin was a contributing author on chapter two of the report, which offered strategies to mitigate the effects of climate change in order to prevent a global average temperature increase of 1.5 °C. The article cited Calvin's research on land use and its relationship with socioeconomic and environmental effects. [17]

Calvin also contributed to the IPCC's Special Report on Climate Change and Land in 2019. [18] This report examines the effect that elevated greenhouse gasses will have on the planet from a perspective of human land usage. Calvin was a coordinating lead author in the report's sixth chapter, in which her research was used extensively throughout. Chapter six offers pathways of mitigating the harmful effects of global climate change on land use, such as reduced deforestation and agricultural diversification. [19]

Publications

Notable articles by Calvin include:

Awards

In 2015, Calvin was awarded PNNL's Ronald L. Brodzinski Early Career Exceptional Achievement Award. She was nominated by Ghassem Asrar, director of JGCRI. [7]

In 2019, Calvin received the Piers J. Sellers Global Environmental Change Mid-Career Award from the American Geophysical Union. [25] She also received the IAMC Award for extraordinary contributions to the field of integrated assessment modeling. [26]

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Causes of climate change</span> Effort to scientifically ascertain mechanisms responsible for recent global warming

The scientific community has been investigating the causes of climate change for decades. After thousands of studies, it came to a consensus, where it is "unequivocal that human influence has warmed the atmosphere, ocean and land since pre-industrial times." This consensus is supported by around 200 scientific organizations worldwide, The dominant role in this climate change has been played by the direct emissions of carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels. Indirect CO2 emissions from land use change, and the emissions of methane, nitrous oxide and other greenhouse gases play major supporting roles.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Global warming potential</span> Potential heat absorbed by a greenhouse gas

Global Warming Potential (GWP) is an index to measure how much infrared thermal radiation a greenhouse gas would absorb over a given time frame after it has been added to the atmosphere. The GWP makes different greenhouse gases comparable with regard to their "effectiveness in causing radiative forcing". It is expressed as a multiple of the radiation that would be absorbed by the same mass of added carbon dioxide, which is taken as a reference gas. Therefore, the GWP has a value of 1 for CO2. For other gases it depends on how strongly the gas absorbs infrared thermal radiation, how quickly the gas leaves the atmosphere, and the time frame being considered.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Emission intensity</span> Emission rate of a pollutant

An emission intensity is the emission rate of a given pollutant relative to the intensity of a specific activity, or an industrial production process; for example grams of carbon dioxide released per megajoule of energy produced, or the ratio of greenhouse gas emissions produced to gross domestic product (GDP). Emission intensities are used to derive estimates of air pollutant or greenhouse gas emissions based on the amount of fuel combusted, the number of animals in animal husbandry, on industrial production levels, distances traveled or similar activity data. Emission intensities may also be used to compare the environmental impact of different fuels or activities. In some case the related terms emission factor and carbon intensity are used interchangeably. The jargon used can be different, for different fields/industrial sectors; normally the term "carbon" excludes other pollutants, such as particulate emissions. One commonly used figure is carbon intensity per kilowatt-hour (CIPK), which is used to compare emissions from different sources of electrical power.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Special Report on Emissions Scenarios</span> 2000 report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

The Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) is a report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that was published in 2000. The greenhouse gas emissions scenarios described in the Report have been used to make projections of possible future climate change. The SRES scenarios, as they are often called, were used in the IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR), published in 2001, and in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), published in 2007. The SRES scenarios were designed to improve upon some aspects of the IS92 scenarios, which had been used in the earlier IPCC Second Assessment Report of 1995. The SRES scenarios are "baseline" scenarios, which means that they do not take into account any current or future measures to limit greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Climate change mitigation</span> Actions to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions to limit climate change

Climate change mitigation (or decarbonisation) is action to limit the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere that cause climate change. Greenhouse gas emissions are primarily caused by people burning fossil fuels such as coal, oil, and natural gas. Phasing out fossil fuel use can happen by conserving energy and replacing fossil fuels with clean energy sources such as wind, hydro, solar, and nuclear power. Secondary mitigation strategies include changes to land use and removing carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere. Governments have pledged to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, but actions to date are insufficient to avoid dangerous levels of climate change.

Economic analysis of climate change is about using economic tools and models to calculate the magnitude and distribution of damages caused by climate change. It can also give guidance for the best policies for mitigation and adaptation to climate change from an economic perspective. There are many economic models and frameworks. For example, in a cost–benefit analysis, the trade offs between climate change impacts, adaptation, and mitigation are made explicit. For this kind of analysis, integrated assessment models (IAMs) are useful. Those models link main features of society and economy with the biosphere and atmosphere into one modelling framework. The total economic impacts from climate change are difficult to estimate. In general, they increase the more the global surface temperature increases. Economic analysis also looks at the economics of climate change mitigation.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Climate change</span> Current rise in Earths average temperature and its effects

In common usage, climate change describes global warming—the ongoing increase in global average temperature—and its effects on Earth's climate system. Climate change in a broader sense also includes previous long-term changes to Earth's climate. The current rise in global average temperature is more rapid than previous changes, and is primarily caused by humans burning fossil fuels. Fossil fuel use, deforestation, and some agricultural and industrial practices add to greenhouse gases, notably carbon dioxide and methane. Greenhouse gases absorb some of the heat that the Earth radiates after it warms from sunlight. Larger amounts of these gases trap more heat in Earth's lower atmosphere, causing global warming.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Greenhouse gas emissions</span> Sources and amounts of greenhouse gases emitted to the atmosphere from human activities

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from human activities intensify the greenhouse effect. This contributes to climate change. Carbon dioxide, from burning fossil fuels such as coal, oil, and natural gas, is one of the most important factors in causing climate change. The largest emitters are China followed by the United States. The United States has higher emissions per capita. The main producers fueling the emissions globally are large oil and gas companies. Emissions from human activities have increased atmospheric carbon dioxide by about 50% over pre-industrial levels. The growing levels of emissions have varied, but have been consistent among all greenhouse gases. Emissions in the 2010s averaged 56 billion tons a year, higher than any decade before. Total cumulative emissions from 1870 to 2017 were 425±20 GtC from fossil fuels and industry, and 180±60 GtC from land use change. Land-use change, such as deforestation, caused about 31% of cumulative emissions over 1870–2017, coal 32%, oil 25%, and gas 10%.

The social cost of carbon (SCC) is the marginal cost of the impacts caused by emitting one extra tonne of carbon emissions at any point in time. The purpose of putting a price on a tonne of emitted CO2 is to aid policymakers or other legislators in evaluating whether a policy designed to curb climate change is justified. The social cost of carbon is a calculation focused on taking corrective measures on climate change which can be deemed a form of market failure. The only governments which use the SCC are in North America. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change suggested that a carbon price of $100 per tonne of CO2 could reduce global GHG emissions by at least half the 2019 level by 2030.

Integrated assessment modelling (IAM) or integrated modelling (IM)  is a term used for a type of scientific modelling that tries to link main features of society and economy with the biosphere and atmosphere into one modelling framework. The goal of integrated assessment modelling is to accommodate informed policy-making, usually in the context of climate change though also in other areas of human and social development. While the detail and extent of integrated disciplines varies strongly per model, all climatic integrated assessment modelling includes economic processes as well as processes producing greenhouse gases. Other integrated assessment models also integrate other aspects of human development such as education, health, infrastructure, and governance.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Carbon dioxide removal</span> Removal of atmospheric carbon dioxide through human activity

Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is a process in which carbon dioxide is removed from the atmosphere by deliberate human activities and durably stored in geological, terrestrial, or ocean reservoirs, or in products. This process is also known as carbon removal, greenhouse gas removal or negative emissions. CDR is more and more often integrated into climate policy, as an element of climate change mitigation strategies. Achieving net zero emissions will require first and foremost deep and sustained cuts in emissions, and then—in addition—the use of CDR. In the future, CDR may be able to counterbalance emissions that are technically difficult to eliminate, such as some agricultural and industrial emissions.

A climate change scenario is a hypothetical future based on a "set of key driving forces". Scenarios explore the long-term effectiveness of mitigation and adaptation. Scenarios help to understand what the future may hold. They can show which decisions will have the most meaningful effects on mitigation and adaptation.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Representative Concentration Pathway</span> Projections used in climate change modeling

Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) are climate change scenarios to project future greenhouse gas concentrations. These pathways describe future greenhouse gas concentrations and have been formally adopted by the IPCC. The pathways describe different climate change scenarios, all of which were considered possible depending on the amount of greenhouse gases (GHG) emitted in the years to come. The four RCPs – originally RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6, and RCP8.5 – are labelled after a possible range of radiative forcing values in the year 2100. The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) began to use these four pathways for climate modeling and research in 2014. The higher values mean higher greenhouse gas emissions and therefore higher global surface temperatures and more pronounced effects of climate change. The lower RCP values, on the other hand, are more desirable for humans but would require more stringent climate change mitigation efforts to achieve them.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Carbon budget</span> Limit on carbon dioxide emission for a given climate impact

A carbon budget is a concept used in climate policy to help set emissions reduction targets in a fair and effective way. It examines the "maximum amount of cumulative net global anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions that would result in limiting global warming to a given level". It can be expressed relative to the pre-industrial period. In this case, it is the total carbon budget. Or it can be expressed from a recent specified date onwards. In that case it is the remaining carbon budget.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C</span> Special climate change report published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

The Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C (SR15) was published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on 8 October 2018. The report, approved in Incheon, South Korea, includes over 6,000 scientific references, and was prepared by 91 authors from 40 countries. In December 2015, the 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference called for the report. The report was delivered at the United Nations' 48th session of the IPCC to "deliver the authoritative, scientific guide for governments" to deal with climate change. Its key finding is that meeting a 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) target is possible but would require "deep emissions reductions" and "rapid, far-reaching and unprecedented changes in all aspects of society". Furthermore, the report finds that "limiting global warming to 1.5 °C compared with 2 °C would reduce challenging impacts on ecosystems, human health and well-being" and that a 2 °C temperature increase would exacerbate extreme weather, rising sea levels and diminishing Arctic sea ice, coral bleaching, and loss of ecosystems, among other impacts.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Special Report on Climate Change and Land</span> IPCC report

The United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Special Report on Climate Change and Land (SRCCL), also known as the "Special Report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems", is a landmark study from 2019 by 107 experts from 52 countries. The SRCCL provides a comprehensive overview of the entire land-climate system for the first time and decided to enlist land as a "critical resource". The IPCC's 50th session (IPCC-50) formally adopted the SRCCL's Summary for policymakers (SPM) and approved the underlying report. The SPM and the full text of Special Report on Climate Change and Land—in an unedited form—were released on 8 August 2019. The report is over 1,300 pages long and includes the work of 107 experts from 52 countries.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture</span> Agricultures effects on climate change

The amount of greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture is significant: The agriculture, forestry and land use sector contribute between 13% and 21% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Emissions come from direct greenhouse gas emissions. and from indirect emissions. With regards to direct emissions, nitrous oxide and methane make up over half of total greenhouse gas emission from agriculture. Indirect emissions on the other hand come from the conversion of non-agricultural land such as forests into agricultural land. Furthermore, there is also fossil fuel consumption for transport and fertilizer production. For example, the manufacture and use of nitrogen fertilizer contributes around 5% of all global greenhouse gas emissions. Livestock farming is a major source of greenhouse gas emissions. At the same time, livestock farming is affected by climate change.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Shared Socioeconomic Pathways</span> Climate change scenarios

Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) are climate change scenarios of projected socioeconomic global changes up to 2100 as defined in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report on climate change in 2021. They are used to derive greenhouse gas emissions scenarios with different climate policies. The SSPs provide narratives describing alternative socio-economic developments. These storylines are a qualitative description of logic relating elements of the narratives to each other. In terms of quantitative elements, they provide data accompanying the scenarios on national population, urbanization and GDP. The SSPs can be quantified with various Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) to explore possible future pathways both with regards to socioeconomic and climate pathways.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">IPCC Sixth Assessment Report</span> Intergovernmental report on climate change

The Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) of the United Nations (UN) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the sixth in a series of reports which assess the available scientific information on climate change. Three Working Groups covered the following topics: The Physical Science Basis (WGI); Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability (WGII); Mitigation of Climate Change (WGIII). Of these, the first study was published in 2021, the second report February 2022, and the third in April 2022. The final synthesis report was finished in March 2023.

Joeri Rogelj is a Belgian climate scientist working on solutions to climate change. He explores how societies can transform towards sustainable futures. He is a Professor in Climate Science and Policy at the Centre for Environmental Policy (CEP) and Director of Research at the Grantham Institute – Climate Change and Environment, both at Imperial College London. He is also affiliated with the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. He is an author of several climate reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), and a member of the European Scientific Advisory Board for Climate Change.

References

  1. ↑ "Katherine Calvin, Chief Scientist and Senior Climate Advisor". 10 January 2022.
  2. ↑ "Katherine Calvin — IPCC".
  3. ↑ "Summary report 25–28 July 2023".
  4. 1 2 3 "PNNL: Atmospheric Sciences & Global Change - Staff Information Kate Calvin". www.pnnl.gov. Retrieved 2019-09-12.
  5. 1 2 3 "Project: Models of the World for the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency". www8.nationalacademies.org. Retrieved 2019-09-12.
  6. ↑ Calvin, Katherine (2008). Participation in international environmental agreements : a game-theoretic study / (Thesis).
  7. 1 2 "PNNL: Katherine Calvin Honored for Early Career Exceptional Achievement". www.pnnl.gov. Retrieved 2019-09-12.
  8. ↑ "Global Change Assessment Model | Joint Global Change Research Institute". www.globalchange.umd.edu. Archived from the original on 2020-01-13. Retrieved 2019-09-13.
  9. ↑ Fitton, N.; Alexander, P.; Arnell, N.; Bajzelj, B.; Calvin, K.; Doelman, J.; Gerber, J. S.; Havlik, P.; Hasegawa, T. (2019-09-01). "The vulnerabilities of agricultural land and food production to future water scarcity". Global Environmental Change. 58: 101944. doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2019.101944 . hdl: 2164/12602 . ISSN   0959-3780.
  10. ↑ Turner, Sean W. D.; Hejazi, Mohamad; Calvin, Katherine; Kyle, Page; Kim, Sonny (2019-07-10). "A pathway of global food supply adaptation in a world with increasingly constrained groundwater". Science of the Total Environment. 673: 165–176. Bibcode:2019ScTEn.673..165T. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.04.070 . ISSN   0048-9697. PMID   30986676.
  11. ↑ Huang, Zhongwei; Hejazi, Mohamad; Tang, Qiuhong; Vernon, Chris R.; Liu, Yaling; Chen, Min; Calvin, Kate (2019-07-01). "Global agricultural green and blue water consumption under future climate and land use changes". Journal of Hydrology. 574: 242–256. Bibcode:2019JHyd..574..242H. doi: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.04.046 . ISSN   0022-1694.
  12. ↑ "PNNL: Kate Calvin Appointed to National Research Council Study Team". www.pnnl.gov. Retrieved 2019-09-12.
  13. ↑ Read "From Maps to Models: Augmenting the Nation's Geospatial Intelligence Capabilities" at NAP.edu. 2016. doi:10.17226/23650. ISBN   978-0-309-44991-5.
  14. ↑ "National Climate Assessment". National Climate Assessment. Archived from the original on September 22, 2016. Retrieved 2019-09-12.
  15. ↑ Jacoby, H. D., A. C. Janetos, R. Birdsey, J. Buizer, K. Calvin, F. de la Chesnaye, D. Schimel, I. Sue Wing, R. Detchon, J. Edmonds, L. Russell, and J. West, 2014: Ch. 27: Mitigation. Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment, J. M. Melillo, Terese (T.C.) Richmond, and G. W. Yohe, Eds., U.S. Global Change Research Program, 648-669. doi:10.7930/J0C8276J.
  16. ↑ "Mitigation pathways compatible with 1.5°C in the context of sustainable development". IPCC. Retrieved 2019-09-12.
  17. ↑ J. Rogelj, D. Shindell, K. Jiang, S. Fifita, P. Forster, V. Ginzburg, C. Handa, H. Kheshgi, S. Kobayashi, E. Kriegler, L. Mundaca, R. Séférian, M. V. Vilariño, 2018, Mitigation pathways compatible with 1.5°C in the context of sustainable development. In: Global warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty.
  18. ↑ "IPCC Authors (beta)". apps.ipcc.ch. Retrieved 2019-09-12.
  19. ↑ Smith, Pete & Nkem, Johnson & Calvin, Katherine & Campbell, Donovan & Cherubini, Francesco & Grassi, Giacomo & Korotkov, Vladimir & Hoang, Anh & Lwasa, Shuaib & McElwee, Pamela & Nkonya, Ephraim & Saigusa, Nobuko & Soussana, Jean-François & Taboada, Miguel & Arias-Navarro, Cristina & Cavalett, Otavio & Cowie, Annette & House, Joanna & Huppmann, Daniel & Vizzarri, Matteo, 2019, Ch. 6: Interlinkages between Desertification, Land Degradation, Food Security and GHG fluxes: synergies, trade-offs and Integrated Response Options. In: Climate Change and Land. An IPCC special report on climate change, desertification, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems.
  20. ↑ Meinshausen, Malte (9 Aug 2011). "The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300". Climatic Change. 109 (213): 213–241. Bibcode:2011ClCh..109..213M. doi: 10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z .
  21. ↑ Thomson, Allison M. (29 July 2011). "RCP4.5: a pathway for stabilization of radiative forcing by 2100". Climatic Change. 109 (77): 77–94. Bibcode:2011ClCh..109...77T. doi: 10.1007/s10584-011-0151-4 .
  22. ↑ Wise, Marshall (29 May 2009). "Implications of Limiting CO2 Concentrations for Land Use and Energy". Science. 324 (5931): 1183–6. Bibcode:2009Sci...324.1183W. doi:10.1126/science.1168475. PMID   19478180. S2CID   5050930 . Retrieved July 30, 2020.
  23. ↑ Riahi, Keywan (January 2017). "The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview". Global Environmental Change. 42: 153–168. doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.05.009 . hdl: 10044/1/78069 .
  24. ↑ Calvin, Katherine (December 2009). "2.6: Limiting climate change to 450 ppm CO2 equivalent in the 21st century". Energy Economics. 31 (Supplement 2): S107–S120. doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2009.06.006.
  25. ↑ AGU (3 April 2020). "Calvin Receives 2019 Piers J. Sellers Global Environmental Change Mid-Career Award". American Geophysical Union. Retrieved July 30, 2020.
  26. ↑ "Kate CALVIN – iamconsortium" . Retrieved 2021-01-13.
  27. ↑ "17 PNNL Researchers Named to Highly Cited List | PNNL".
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