William M. Gray | |
---|---|
Born | William Mason Gray October 9, 1929 |
Died | April 16, 2016 86) | (aged
Alma mater | University of Chicago |
Known for | Research into hurricanes, climate change skepticism |
Spouse | Nancy Price (m. 1954;died 2001) |
Children | 4 |
Scientific career | |
Fields | Atmospheric science |
Institutions | Colorado State University |
Thesis | On the Scales of Motion and Internal Stress Characteristics of the Hurricane (1964) |
William "Bill" Mason Gray was emeritus professor of atmospheric science at Colorado State University (CSU), and the head of the Tropical Meteorology Project at CSU's Department of Atmospheric Sciences. He is widely regarded as a pioneer in the science of tropical cyclone forecasting [1] and one of the world's leading experts on tropical storms. [2] After retiring as a faculty member at CSU in 2005, Gray remained actively involved in both climate change and tropical cyclone research until his death.
Gray was born on 9 October 1929, in Detroit, Michigan, and was the eldest son of Ulysses S. Gray and Beatrice Mason Gray. His family moved to Washington, D.C. in 1939 where he graduated from Wilson High School. [3] In 1952, Gray received a B.S. degree in geography from George Washington University before joining the United States Air Force in 1953. [3] [4] Over the next four years, he served as an overseas weather forecast officer, primarily stationed in the Azores and England. [3] Upon returning to the United States in 1957, he began work as a research assistant at the University of Chicago Department of Meteorology from 1957 to 1961. [4] During his time there, he earned a M.S. in meteorology 1959 and went on to earn a PhD in geophysical sciences in 1964 under the mentorship of Herbert Riehl. [4] [5] [6]
He joined Colorado State University (CSU) in 1961 as part of the Department of Atmospheric Science. [4] Gray remained active in the Air Force Reserves until 1974, at which time he retired as a Lieutenant colonel. [3] Following his retirement from the Reserves, he became a professor at CSU and went on to advise successful 20 PhD and 50 M.S. graduates. [3] [4] [5] Eight of his students received awards from the American Meteorological Society while under his mentorship. [4] Many of his students went on to become prominent members of the meteorological community, with several working at the National Hurricane Center. [7] His last student was Philip Klotzbach, [3] who later took over Gray's position as lead author of the CSU seasonal hurricane forecasts. [8]
Gray worked closely with the World Meteorological Organization throughout his career. [3] Starting in 1978, he traveled to numerous countries establish or improve connections with meteorologists across the globe, a groundbreaking action. [9] In 1985, he organized the first International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones in Bangkok, Thailand. [3]
Gray had many students and he offered them advice including his commandments. One of them was Remember Up-Moist, Down-Dry and Keep it Holy which was the reference to his conviction that one has to include moisture processes such as evaporation and rainfall to understand atmospheric energy balance. Thou Shalt Not Concern Thyself Unduly with Commandments and Regulations expressed his disdain for bureaucracy. Being an observational atmospheric scientist, he detested numerical models of the atmosphere—Thou Shalt Not Bow Before Computer Terminals Nor Involve Thyself with Numerical Models. He held very lively group meetings with his students and encouraged them to question everything—Remember Thy Project Meeting and Keep it Holy, Thou Shalt Not Wait 'til the End of a Talk to Ask a Question When Thou Can Interrupt in the Middle.
On 1 October 1954, Gray married Nancy Price and they had four children together: Sarah, Anne (deceased), Janet, and Robert. They remained married until Price's death in 2001. [3] Gray was a fan of baseball and followed the then Washington Senators (now known as the Texas Rangers). [10] He initially sought a career in baseball or basketball but a knee injury at age 21 prevented him from pursuing such. [3]
Among Gray's most prominent achievements were the establishment of seasonal hurricane forecasts and finding that hurricane activity is cyclical. [11] He is widely regarded as a pioneer in hurricane research, particularly for the seasonal forecasts. [1] Throughout his career, Gray published more than 80 papers and 60 research reports. [5] Klotzbach referred to him as "one of the greatest minds in hurricane research". [10]
In the late 1970s, Gray noticed a trend of low hurricane activity in the North Atlantic basin during El Niño years. He was the first researcher to make a connection between such events and positive results led him to pursue further research. He found numerous factors across the globe influence tropical cyclone activity, such as connecting wet periods over the African Sahel to an increase in major hurricane landfalls along the United States East Coast. However, his findings also showed inconsistencies when only looking at a single factor as a primary influence. [9]
Utilizing his findings, Gray developed an objective, statistical forecast for seasonal hurricane activity; he predicted only the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes, foregoing specifics on tracks and potential landfalls due to the aforementioned inconsistencies. [9] Gray issued his first seasonal forecast ahead of the 1984 season, which used the statistical relationships between tropical cyclone activity, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), and Caribbean basin sea-level pressures. [12] [13] The endeavor proved modestly successful. [9] He subsequently issued forecasts ahead of the start of the Atlantic hurricane season in May and before the peak of the season in August. [8] Students and colleagues joined his forecast team in the following years, including Christopher Landsea, Paul W. Mielke Jr., and Kenneth J. Berry. [1]
After the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season, Gray announced that he was stepping back from the primary authorship of CSU's tropical cyclone probability forecasts, passing the role to Philip J. Klotzbach. Gray indicated that he would be devoting more time to the issue of global warming. He did not attribute global warming to anthropogenic causes, and was critical of those who did. [14] [15]
Following Gray's retirement from CSU's faculty, he took a stance against anthropogenic global warming. [11] [16] Gray claimed that scientists supported the scientific consensus on climate change because they were afraid of losing grant funding [17] and promoted by government leaders and environmentalists seeking world government. [18] Although he agreed that global warming was taking place, he argued that humans were only responsible for a tiny portion and it was largely part of the Earth's natural cycle. [16] [18] In June 2011, Gray wrote a paper directed at the American Meteorological Society, opposing their embrace of anthropogenic global warming. [19]
Peter Webster, a Georgia Institute of Technology professor, was part of the anonymous peer review on several of Gray's National Science Foundation proposals. In every case he has turned down the global warming research component because he believed it was not up to standards, but recommended that Gray's hurricane research be funded. Webster, who co-authored papers with Gray, was critical of Gray for his personal attacks on the scientists with whom he disagreed. [20]
Throughout his career, Gray received several awards for his pioneering research and mentorship: [4]
The 2004 Atlantic hurricane season was a very deadly, destructive, and active Atlantic hurricane season, with over 3,200 deaths and more than $61 billion in damage. More than half of the 16 tropical cyclones brushed or struck the United States. Due to the development of a Modoki El Niño – a rare type of El Niño in which unfavorable conditions are produced over the eastern Pacific instead of the Atlantic basin due to warmer sea surface temperatures farther west along the equatorial Pacific – activity was above average. The season officially began on June 1 and ended on November 30, though the season's last storm, Otto, dissipated on December 3, extending the season beyond its traditional boundaries. The first storm, Alex, developed offshore of the Southeastern United States on July 31, one of the latest dates on record to see the formation of the first system in an Atlantic hurricane season. It brushed the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic, causing one death and $7.5 million (2004 USD) in damage. Several storms caused only minor damage, including tropical storms Bonnie, Earl, Hermine, and Matthew. In addition, hurricanes Danielle, Karl, and Lisa, Tropical Depression Ten, Subtropical Storm Nicole and Tropical Storm Otto had no effect on land while tropical cyclones. The season was the first to exceed 200 units in accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) since 1995, mostly from Hurricane Ivan, the storm produced the highest ACE. Ivan generated the second-highest ACE in the Atlantic, only behind 1899 San Ciriaco Hurricane.
The 1999 Atlantic hurricane season was a fairly active season, mostly due to a persistent La Niña that developed in the latter half of 1998. It had five Category 4 hurricanes – the highest number recorded in a single season in the Atlantic basin, previously tied in 1933 and 1961, and later tied in 2005 and 2020. The season officially began on June 1, and ended on November 30. These dates conventionally delimit the period of each year when most tropical cyclones form in the Atlantic basin. The first storm, Arlene, formed on June 11 to the southeast of Bermuda. It meandered slowly for a week and caused no impact on land. Other tropical cyclones that did not affect land were Hurricane Cindy, Tropical Storm Emily, and Tropical Depression Twelve. Localized or otherwise minor damage occurred from Hurricanes Bret, Gert, and Jose, and tropical storms Harvey and Katrina.
The 1997 Atlantic hurricane season was a below-average hurricane season. It officially began on June 1, and lasted until November 30 of that year. These dates conventionally delimit the period of each year when most tropical cyclones form in the Atlantic basin. The 1997 season was fairly inactive, with only seven named storms forming, with an additional tropical depression and an unnumbered subtropical storm. It was the first time since the 1961 season that there were no active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin during the entire month of August–historically one of the more active months of the season—a phenomenon that would not occur again until 2022. A strong El Niño is credited with reducing activity in the Atlantic, while increasing the number of storms in the eastern and western Pacific basins to 19 and 26 storms, respectively. As is common in El Niño years, tropical cyclogenesis was suppressed in the tropical latitudes, with only two becoming tropical storms south of 25°N.
The 1984 Atlantic hurricane season was the most active since 1971, though the season was below average in hurricanes and major hurricanes. It officially began on June 1, 1984, and lasted until November 30, 1984. These dates conventionally delimit the period of each year when most tropical cyclones form in the Atlantic basin. The 1984 season was an active one in terms of named storms, but most of them were weak and stayed at sea. Most of the cyclones tracked through the northwest subtropical Atlantic west of the 50th meridian to near the Eastern coast of the United States between mid-August and early October. The most damaging storm was Hurricane Klaus, which caused $152 million (1984 dollars) in damage in Puerto Rico. Hurricane Diana was the first hurricane to strike a nuclear power plant without incident; it was also the first major hurricane to strike the U.S. East Coast in nearly 20 years. Also of note was Hurricane Lili, which lasted well after the official end of the season. It was downgraded from a named storm on December 24. Damage overall from the tropical cyclones in 1984 totaled $228.7 million. Unusually, no hurricanes developed from tropical waves in 1984, which usually are the source of the strongest storms in an Atlantic hurricane season.
The 2006 Atlantic hurricane season was the least active in the basin since 1997, with nine named storms as well as an additional unnamed tropical storm identified by the National Hurricane Center. 2006 was the first season since 2001 in which no hurricanes made landfall in the United States, and was the first since 1994 in which no tropical cyclones formed during October. Following the intense activity of 2003, 2004, and 2005, forecasters predicted that the 2006 season would be only slightly less active. Instead, it turned out to be a below average season, as activity was slowed by a rapidly forming moderate El Niño event, the presence of the Saharan Air Layer over the tropical Atlantic, and the steady presence of a robust secondary high-pressure area to the Azores High centered on Bermuda. There were no tropical cyclones after October 2.
The 2007 Atlantic hurricane season was the first season since 2003 to feature tropical activity both before and after the official bounds of the season. There were an above-average number of named storms during the season – 15, however many storms were weak and short-lived. Despite the predominance of weak systems, this was the first season on record to feature more than one Category 5 landfalling hurricane. This would not happen again until 2017. It produced 17 tropical cyclones, 15 tropical storms, six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes. It officially started on June 1 and ended on November 30, dates which conventionally delimit the period during which most tropical cyclones form in the Atlantic Ocean, although as shown by Subtropical Storm Andrea and Tropical Storm Olga in early May and early December, respectively, the formation of tropical cyclones is possible at any time of the year. The first system, Subtropical Storm Andrea, developed on May 9, while the last storm, Tropical Storm Olga, dissipated on December 13. The most intense hurricane, Dean, was, at the time, the third most intense landfalling Atlantic storm on record. It was the second on record in which an Atlantic hurricane, Felix, and an eastern Pacific hurricane, Henriette, made landfall on the same day. September had a then record-tying eight storms, until it was surpassed in 2020. However, the strengths and durations of most of the storms were low.
The 2008 Atlantic hurricane season was the most destructive Atlantic hurricane season since 2005, causing over 1,000 deaths and nearly $50 billion in damage. The season ranked as the third costliest ever at the time, but has since fallen to ninth costliest. It was an above-average season, featuring sixteen named storms, eight of which became hurricanes, and five which further became major hurricanes. It officially started on June 1 and ended on November 30. These dates conventionally delimit the period of each year when most tropical cyclones form in the Atlantic basin. However, the formation of Tropical Storm Arthur caused the season to start one day early. It was the only year on record in which a major hurricane existed in every month from July through November in the North Atlantic. Bertha became the longest-lived July tropical cyclone on record for the basin, the first of several long-lived systems during 2008.
Rapid intensification (RI) is any process wherein a tropical cyclone strengthens dramatically in a short period of time. Tropical cyclone forecasting agencies utilize differing thresholds for designating rapid intensification events, though the most widely used definition stipulates an increase in the maximum sustained winds of a tropical cyclone of at least 30 knots in a 24-hour period. However, periods of rapid intensification often last longer than a day. About 20–30% of all tropical cyclones undergo rapid intensification, including a majority of tropical cyclones with peak wind speeds exceeding 51 m/s.
Christopher William "Chris" Landsea is an American meteorologist, formerly a research meteorologist with the Hurricane Research Division of the Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory at NOAA, and now the Science and Operations Officer at the National Hurricane Center. He is a member of the American Geophysical Union and the American Meteorological Society.
Tropical cyclogenesis is the development and strengthening of a tropical cyclone in the atmosphere. The mechanisms through which tropical cyclogenesis occurs are distinctly different from those through which temperate cyclogenesis occurs. Tropical cyclogenesis involves the development of a warm-core cyclone, due to significant convection in a favorable atmospheric environment.
A tropical cyclone is a rapidly rotating storm system with a low-pressure center, a closed low-level atmospheric circulation, strong winds, and a spiral arrangement of thunderstorms that produce heavy rain and squalls. Depending on its location and strength, a tropical cyclone is called a hurricane, typhoon, tropical storm, cyclonic storm, tropical depression, or simply cyclone. A hurricane is a strong tropical cyclone that occurs in the Atlantic Ocean or northeastern Pacific Ocean, and a typhoon occurs in the northwestern Pacific Ocean. In the Indian Ocean and South Pacific, comparable storms are referred to as "tropical cyclones". In modern times, on average around 80 to 90 named tropical cyclones form each year around the world, over half of which develop hurricane-force winds of 65 kn or more. Tropical cyclones carry heat away from the tropics and transport it towards temperate latitudes. This plays an important role in regulating global climate. Tropical cyclones can be very harmful for people.
Tropical cyclone seasonal forecasting is the process of predicting the number of tropical cyclones in one of the world's seven tropical cyclone basins during a particular tropical cyclone season. In the north Atlantic Ocean, one of the most widely publicized annual predictions comes from the Tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State University. These reports are written by Philip J. Klotzbach and William M. Gray.
Tropical cyclone forecasting is the science of forecasting where a tropical cyclone's center, and its effects, are expected to be at some point in the future. There are several elements to tropical cyclone forecasting: track forecasting, intensity forecasting, rainfall forecasting, storm surge, tornado, and seasonal forecasting. While skill is increasing in regard to track forecasting, intensity forecasting skill remains unchanged over the past several years. Seasonal forecasting began in the 1980s in the Atlantic basin and has spread into other basins in the years since.
The 2011 Atlantic hurricane season was the second in a group of three very active Atlantic hurricane seasons, each with 19 named storms, only behind 1887, 1995, 2010, and 2012. The above-average activity was mostly due to a La Niña that persisted during the previous year. Of the season's 19 tropical storms, only seven strengthened into hurricanes, and four of those became major hurricanes: Irene, Katia, Ophelia, and Rina. The season officially began on June 1 and ended on November 30, dates which conventionally delimit the period during each year in which most tropical cyclones develop in the Atlantic Ocean. However, the first tropical storm of the season, Arlene, did not develop until nearly a month later. The final system, Tropical Storm Sean, dissipated over the open Atlantic on November 11.
The 2009 Atlantic hurricane season was a near-average Atlantic hurricane season that produced eleven tropical cyclones, nine named storms, three hurricanes, and two major hurricanes. It officially began on June 1 and ended on November 30, dates that conventionally delimit the period of each year when most tropical cyclones develop in the Atlantic basin. The season's first tropical cyclone, Tropical Depression One, developed on May 28, while the final storm, Hurricane Ida, dissipated on November 10. The most intense hurricane, Bill, was a powerful Cape Verde-type hurricane that affected areas from the Leeward Islands to Newfoundland. The season featured the lowest number of tropical cyclones since the 1997 season, and only one system, Claudette, made landfall in the United States. Forming from the interaction of a tropical wave and an upper-level low, Claudette made landfall on the Florida Panhandle with maximum sustained winds of 45 mph (70 km/h) before quickly dissipating over Alabama. The storm killed two people and caused $228,000 in damage.
The 2012 Atlantic hurricane season was the final year in a string of three consecutive very active seasons since 2010, with 19 tropical storms. The 2012 season was also a costly one in terms of property damage, mostly due to Hurricane Sandy. The season officially began on June 1 and ended on November 30, dates that conventionally delimit the period during each year in which most tropical cyclones form in the Atlantic Ocean. However, Alberto, the first named system of the year, developed on May 19 – the earliest date of formation since Subtropical Storm Andrea in 2007. A second tropical cyclone, Beryl, developed later that month. This was the first occurrence of two pre-season named storms in the Atlantic basin since 1951. It moved ashore in North Florida on May 29 with winds of 65 mph (105 km/h), making it the strongest pre-season storm to make landfall in the Atlantic basin. This season marked the first time since 2009 where no tropical cyclones formed in July. Another record was set by Hurricane Nadine later in the season; the system became the fourth-longest-lived tropical cyclone ever recorded in the Atlantic, with a total duration of 22.25 days. The final storm to form, Tony, dissipated on October 25 – however, Hurricane Sandy, which formed before Tony, became extratropical on October 29.
The 2015 Atlantic hurricane season was the last of three consecutive below average Atlantic hurricane seasons. It produced twelve tropical cyclones, eleven named storms, four hurricanes, and two major hurricanes. The Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) for the season was 68% of the long-term median value. The hurricane season officially began on June 1, 2015, and ended on November 30, 2015. These dates historically describe the period each year when most tropical cyclones form in the North Atlantic basin. However, the first named storm, Ana, developed on May 8, nearly a month before the official start of the season, the first pre-season cyclone since Beryl in 2012 and the earliest since Ana in 2003. The formation of Ana marked the start of a series of seven consecutive seasons with pre-season activity, spanning from 2015 to 2021. The season concluded with Kate transitioning into an extratropical cyclone on November 11, almost three weeks before the official end.
The 2013 Atlantic hurricane season was a well below average Atlantic hurricane season in terms of the number of hurricanes. It was the first since 1994 with no major hurricanes, Category 3 or higher on the Saffir–Simpson scale, and the first in the satellite era where no hurricanes reached Category 2 strength. Altogether, the season produced 15 tropical cyclones, of which all but one became a named storm. The season officially began on June 1, 2013, and ended on November 30, 2013. These dates historically describe the period in each year when most tropical cyclogenesis occurs in the North Atlantic and are adopted by convention. The first storm of the season, Andrea, developed on June 5, while the last, an unnamed subtropical storm, dissipated on December 7. Throughout the year, only two storms, Humberto and Ingrid, reached hurricane strength; this was the lowest seasonal total since 1982.
The 2021 Atlantic hurricane season was the third-most active Atlantic hurricane season on record in terms of number of tropical cyclones, although many of them were weak and short-lived. With 21 named storms forming, it became the second season in a row and third overall in which the designated 21-name list of storm names was exhausted. Seven of those storms strengthened into a hurricane, four of which reached major hurricane intensity, which is slightly above-average. The season officially began on June 1 and ended on November 30. These dates historically describe the period in each year when most Atlantic tropical cyclones form. However, subtropical or tropical cyclogenesis is possible at any time of the year, as demonstrated by the development of Tropical Storm Ana on May 22, making this the seventh consecutive year in which a storm developed outside of the official season.
The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is the upcoming Atlantic hurricane season in the Northern Hemisphere. The season officially begins on June 1, 2024, and ends on November 30, 2024. These dates, adopted by convention, historically describe the period in each year when most subtropical or tropical cyclogenesis occurs in the Atlantic Ocean. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) began issuing regular Tropical Weather Outlooks on May 15, 2024, about two weeks prior to the start of the season.
...1984...Gray also launched the endeavor that would make him most famous: a seasonal forecasting scheme for the Atlantic basin, which would predict the number of hurricanes and tropical storms months before their actual arrival. ... It's hard to overstate the breakthrough that Gray had achieved with his forecasting scheme.