A Random Walk Down Wall Street

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A Random Walk Down Wall Street
Book Cover Random Walk.jpg
Author Burton Malkiel
CountryUnited States
LanguageEnglish
GenreNon-fiction
Publisher W. W. Norton & Company, Inc.
Publication date
1973
Pages456 pp.
ISBN 0-393-06245-7
OCLC 72798896
332.6 22
LC Class HG4521 .M284 2007

A Random Walk Down Wall Street, written by Burton Gordon Malkiel, a Princeton University economist, is a book on the subject of stock markets which popularized the random walk hypothesis. Malkiel argues that asset prices typically exhibit signs of a random walk, and thus one cannot consistently outperform market averages. The book is frequently cited by those in favor of the efficient-market hypothesis. As of 2023, there have been 13 editions. After the 12th edition, over 1.5 million copies had been sold [1] A practical popularization is The Random Walk Guide to Investing: Ten Rules for Financial Success. [2]

Contents

Investing techniques

Malkiel examines some popular investing techniques, including technical analysis and fundamental analysis, in light of academic research studies of these methods. Through detailed analysis, he notes significant flaws in both techniques, concluding that, for most investors, following these methods will produce inferior results compared to passive strategies.

Malkiel has a similar critique for methods of selecting actively managed mutual funds based upon past performances. He cites studies indicating that actively managed mutual funds vary greatly in their success rates over the long term, often underperforming in years following their successes, thereby regressing toward the mean. Malkiel suggests that given the distribution of fund performances, it is statistically unlikely that an average investor would happen to select those few mutual funds which will outperform their benchmark index over the long term.

See also

Related Research Articles

Passive management is an investing strategy that tracks a market-weighted index or portfolio. Passive management is most common on the equity market, where index funds track a stock market index, but it is becoming more common in other investment types, including bonds, commodities and hedge funds.

An index fund is a mutual fund or exchange-traded fund (ETF) designed to follow certain preset rules so that the fund can track a specified basket of underlying investments. While index providers often emphasize that they are for-profit organizations, index providers have the ability to act as "reluctant regulators" when determining which companies are suitable for an index. Those rules may include tracking prominent indexes like the S&P 500 or the Dow Jones Industrial Average or implementation rules, such as tax-management, tracking error minimization, large block trading or patient/flexible trading strategies that allow for greater tracking error but lower market impact costs. Index funds may also have rules that screen for social and sustainable criteria.

In finance, technical analysis is an analysis methodology for analysing and forecasting the direction of prices through the study of past market data, primarily price and volume. Behavioral economics and quantitative analysis use many of the same tools of technical analysis, which, being an aspect of active management, stands in contradiction to much of modern portfolio theory. The efficacy of both technical and fundamental analysis is disputed by the efficient-market hypothesis, which states that stock market prices are essentially unpredictable, and research on whether technical analysis offers any benefit has produced mixed results.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Efficient-market hypothesis</span> Economic theory that asset prices fully reflect all available information

The efficient-market hypothesis (EMH) is a hypothesis in financial economics that states that asset prices reflect all available information. A direct implication is that it is impossible to "beat the market" consistently on a risk-adjusted basis since market prices should only react to new information.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Benjamin Graham</span> American economist, professor, and investor

Benjamin Graham was a British-born American economist, professor and investor. He is widely known as the "father of value investing", and wrote two of the founding texts in neoclassical investing: Security Analysis (1934) with David Dodd, and The Intelligent Investor (1949). His investment philosophy stressed investor psychology, minimal debt, buy-and-hold investing, fundamental analysis, concentrated diversification, buying within the margin of safety, activist investing, and contrarian mindsets.

Burton Gordon Malkiel is an American economist, financial executive, and writer most noted for his classic finance book A Random Walk Down Wall Street. He is a leading proponent of the efficient-market hypothesis, which contends that prices of publicly traded assets reflect all publicly available information, although he has also pointed out that some markets are evidently inefficient, exhibiting signs of non-random walk.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Value investing</span> Investment paradigm

Value investing is an investment paradigm that involves buying securities that appear underpriced by some form of fundamental analysis. The various forms of value investing derive from the investment philosophy first taught by Benjamin Graham and David Dodd at Columbia Business School in 1928, and subsequently developed in their 1934 text Security Analysis.

Market timing is the strategy of making buying or selling decisions of financial assets by attempting to predict future market price movements. The prediction may be based on an outlook of market or economic conditions resulting from technical or fundamental analysis. This is an investment strategy based on the outlook for an aggregate market rather than for a particular financial asset.

Active management is an approach to investing. In an actively managed portfolio of investments, the investor selects the investments that make up the portfolio. Active management is often compared to passive management or index investing.

Buy and hold, also called position trading, is an investment strategy whereby an investor buys financial assets or non-financial assets such as real estate, to hold them long term, with the goal of realizing price appreciation, despite volatility.

The random walk hypothesis is a financial theory stating that stock market prices evolve according to a random walk and thus cannot be predicted.

The Dogs of the Dow is an investment strategy popularized by Michael B. O'Higgins in a 1991 book and his Dogs of the Dow website.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Stock trader</span> Person or company involved in trading equity securities

A stock trader or equity trader or share trader, also called a stock investor, is a person or company involved in trading equity securities and attempting to profit from the purchase and sale of those securities. Stock traders may be an investor, agent, hedger, arbitrageur, speculator, or stockbroker. Such equity trading in large publicly traded companies may be through a stock exchange. Stock shares in smaller public companies may be bought and sold in over-the-counter (OTC) markets or in some instances in equity crowdfunding platforms.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Value averaging</span>

Value averaging (VA), also known as dollar value averaging (DVA), is a technique for adding to an investment portfolio that is controversially claimed to provide a greater return than other methods such as dollar cost averaging. With the method, investors add to (or withdraw from) their portfolios in such a way that the portfolio balance reaches a predetermined monthly or quarterly target, regardless of market fluctuations. For example, an investor may want to have a $3600 investment in 36 months. Using VA, the investor would aim to have a total investment value of $100 at the beginning of the first month, $200 at the beginning of the second month, and so on. Having invested $100 at the beginning of the first month, the investment may be worth $101 at the end of that month. In that case, the investor invests a further $99 to reach the second month objective of $200. If at the end of the first month, the investment is worth $205, the investor withdraws $5.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Financial statement analysis</span>

Financial statement analysis is the process of reviewing and analyzing a company's financial statements to make better economic decisions to earn income in future. These statements include the income statement, balance sheet, statement of cash flows, notes to accounts and a statement of changes in equity. Financial statement analysis is a method or process involving specific techniques for evaluating risks, performance, financial health, and future prospects of an organization.

Stock market prediction is the act of trying to determine the future value of a company stock or other financial instrument traded on an exchange. The successful prediction of a stock's future price could yield significant profit. The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that stock prices reflect all currently available information and any price changes that are not based on newly revealed information thus are inherently unpredictable. Others disagree and those with this viewpoint possess myriad methods and technologies which purportedly allow them to gain future price information.

"The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville" is an article by Warren Buffett promoting value investing, published in the Fall, 1984 issue of Hermes, Columbia Business School magazine. It was based on a speech given on May 17, 1984, at the Columbia University School of Business in honor of the 50th anniversary of the publication of Benjamin Graham and David Dodd's book Security Analysis. The speech and article challenged the idea that equity markets are efficient through a study of nine successful investment funds generating long-term returns above the market index. All these funds were managed by Benjamin Graham's alumni, following the same "Graham-and-Doddsville" value investing strategy but each investing in different assets and stocks.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Bond market index</span> Method of measuring the performance of the bond market

A bond index or bond market index is a method of measuring the investment performance and characteristics of the bond market. There are numerous indices of differing construction that are designed to measure the aggregate bond market and its various sectors A bond index is computed from the change in market prices and, in the case of a total return index, the interest payments, associated with selected bonds over a specified period of time. Bond indices are used by investors and portfolio managers as a benchmark against which to measure the performance of actively managed bond portfolios, which attempt to outperform the index, and passively managed bond portfolios, that are designed to match the performance of the index. Bond indices are also used in determining the compensation of those who manage bond portfolios on a performance-fee basis.

An odd lotter is an investor who purchases shares or other securities in small or unusual quantities. Stocks are typically traded in increments of 100 shares, a quantity known as a round lot or board lot. The cost of 100 shares of a security may be beyond the means of an individual investor, or may represent a larger investment than the investor wishes to make. Thus, the investor purchases an odd lot.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Do-it-yourself investing</span>

Do-it-yourself (DIY) investing, self-directed investing or self-managed investing is an investment approach where the investor chooses to build and manage his or her own investment portfolio instead of hiring an agent, such as a stockbroker, investment adviser, private banker, or financial planner.

References