Related Research Articles
The Republican Party, also known as the GOP, is one of the two major contemporary political parties in the United States. It is a big tent of competing and often opposing viewpoints, but modern American conservatism, a synthesis of classical liberalism and conservatism, is the party's majority ideology. It also has notable libertarian, populist, and centrist factions in Congress. The Republican Party emerged as the main political rival of the Democratic Party in the mid-1850s, and the two parties have dominated American politics ever since.
A political campaign is an organized effort which seeks to influence the decision making progress within a specific group. In democracies, political campaigns often refer to electoral campaigns, by which representatives are chosen or referendums are decided. In modern politics, the most high-profile political campaigns are focused on general elections and candidates for head of state or head of government, often a president or prime minister.
Larry Joseph Sabato is an American political scientist and political analyst. He is the Robert Kent Gooch Professor of Politics at the University of Virginia, where he is also the founder and director of the Center for Politics, which works to promote civic engagement and participation. The Center for Politics is also responsible for the publication of Sabato's Crystal Ball, an online newsletter and website that provides free political analysis and electoral projections.
The coattail effect or down-ballot effect is the tendency for a popular political party leader to attract votes for other candidates of the same party in an election. For example, in the United States, the party of a victorious presidential candidate will often win many seats in Congress as well; these Members of Congress are voted into office "on the coattails" of the president.
John J. McGlennon is an American politician of the Democratic Party, a professor at the College of William and Mary, and a member of the Board of Supervisors of James City County, Virginia. On the board, he represents the Roberts District and once served as chairman of the board, a rotating position. McGlennon is a native of New York, but has lived in the Commonwealth of Virginia since the 1970s.
In U.S. politics, a primary challenge is when an incumbent holding elective office is challenged by a member of their own political party in a primary election. Such events, known informally as "being primaried," are noteworthy and not frequent in the United States, as traditionally political parties support incumbents, both for party unity and to minimize the possibility of losing the seat to an opposing party. In addition, officeholders are frequently seen as de facto leaders of their party, eligible to establish policy and administer affairs as they see fit. A primary challenge thus interferes with this "spoil of office," and is largely discouraged. Though typically used to describe challenges to elected officials, the term is also applied to officeholders such as appointed U.S. senators.
Rasmussen Reports is an American polling company founded in 2003. The company engages in political commentary and the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information. Rasmussen Reports conducts nightly tracking, at national and state levels, of elections, politics, current events, consumer confidence, business topics, and the United States president's job approval ratings. Surveys by the company are conducted using a combination of automated public opinion polling involving pre-recorded telephone inquiries and an online survey. The company generates revenue by selling advertising and subscriptions to its polling survey data.
The Keys to the White House is a prediction system for determining the outcome of presidential elections in the United States. It was developed by American historian Allan Lichtman and Russian mathematical geophysicist Vladimir Keilis-Borok in 1981, adapting prediction methods that Keilis-Borok designed for earthquake prediction. The system is a thirteen-point checklist that assesses the situation of the country and political system ahead of a presidential election. When five or fewer items on the checklist are false, the incumbent party nominee is predicted to win the election. Some of the items on the checklist involve qualitative judgment, and therefore the reliability of this system relies heavily on the knowledge and analytical skill of whoever attempts to apply it. Using the system, Lichtman correctly predicted the outcomes of nine presidential elections from 1984 to 2020, with the sole exception of the 2000 election.
The PollyVote project uses the high-profile application of predicting U.S. presidential election results to demonstrate advances in forecasting research. The project is run by political science professors and forecasting experts, one of which is J. Scott Armstrong. All procedures, data, and results are fully disclosed and freely available online.
The 1998 United States elections were held on November 3, 1998, in the middle of Democratic President Bill Clinton's second term and during impeachment proceedings against the president as a result of the Clinton–Lewinsky scandal. Though Republicans retained control of both chambers of Congress, the elections were unusual because this is the first midterm since 1934 that the president's party gained seats in the House of Representatives.
A gender gap in voting typically refers to the difference in the percentage of men and women who vote for a particular candidate. It is calculated by subtracting the percentage of women supporting a candidate from the percentage of men supporting a candidate. Contrary to many popular media accounts, gender gaps are not within-the-gender differences in candidate support, nor are they the aggregate total of men's and women's within gender differences.
The 2018 United States Senate elections were held on November 6, 2018. Among the 100 seats, the 33 of Class 1 were contested in regular elections while 2 others were contested in special elections due to Senate vacancies in Minnesota and Mississippi. The winners were elected to 6-year terms running from January 3, 2019, to January 3, 2025. Senate Democrats had 26 seats up for election, while Senate Republicans had 9 seats up for election.
The 2016 United States elections were held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016. Republican nominee Donald Trump defeated Democratic former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in the presidential election, while Republicans retained control of Congress. This marked the first and most recent time Republicans won or held unified control of the presidency and Congress since 2004.
The 2018 United States elections were held on Tuesday, November 6, 2018. These midterm elections occurred during Incumbent Republican President Donald Trump's term. Although the Republican Party increased its majority in the Senate, unified Republican control of Congress and the White House was brought to an end when the Democratic Party won control of the House of Representatives in what was widely characterized as a "blue wave" election.
Wave elections in the United States are elections in which a political party makes major gains. Based on the "red states and blue states" color coding convention since 2000, wave elections have often been described as either a "blue wave" if the Democratic Party makes significant gains, or a "red wave" if the Republican Party wins a substantial number of seats.
The 2022 United States Senate elections were held on November 8, 2022, concurrently with other midterm elections at the federal, state and local levels. Regularly scheduled elections were held for 34 of the 100 seats in the U.S. Senate, the winners of which will serve six-year terms beginning with the 118th United States Congress. Two special elections were held to complete unexpired terms. While pundits considered the Republican Party a slight favorite to gain control of the Senate, Senate Democrats outperformed expectations and expanded the majority they had held since 2021, gaining one seat for a functioning 51-49 majority.
Jerome Michael Segal is an American philosopher, political activist, and perennial candidate who resides in Silver Spring, Maryland. He was the founder of the socialist Bread and Roses Party, which achieved ballot access in Maryland, and which Segal ran from 2018 to 2021.
Negative partisanship is the tendency of some voters to form their political opinions primarily in opposition to political parties they dislike. Whereas traditional partisanship involves supporting the policy positions of one's own party, its negative counterpart in turn means opposing those positions of a disliked party. It has been claimed to be the cause of severe polarization in American politics. It has also been studied in the Canadian context, as well as in Australia and New Zealand. Cross-national studies indicate that negative partisanship undermines public satisfaction with democracy, which threatens democratic stability. Traditional partisans, on the other hand, are more likely to support their country's democracy, which promotes democratic stability.
Rachel Bitecofer is an American political scientist.
The Trafalgar Group is an opinion polling and survey company founded by Robert Cahaly and based in Atlanta, Georgia. It first publicly released polls in 2016. Trafalgar has been questioned for its methodology and for an apparent bias towards the Republican Party.
References
- ↑ "Humphries, Jane, 1948–". Library of Congress. Retrieved 15 March 2017.
data sheet (b. Dec. 1, 1947)
- ↑ Abramowitz, Alan Ira (1976). An assessment of party and incumbent accountability in midterm congressional elections (PhD thesis). Stanford University. OCLC 27994633.
- ↑ "Alan Abramowitz’s Model Has Correctly Predicted Every Presidential Election Outcome Since 1992". Longreads Blog. April 5, 2015.
- ↑ Abramowitz, Alan I. (October 2008). "Forecasting the 2008 Presidential election with the time-for-change model". PS: Political Science & Politics . 41 (4): 691–695. doi:10.1017/S1049096508081249. JSTOR 20452296. S2CID 153964974. Pdf.
- ↑ Matthews, Dylan (June 14, 2016). "One of the best election models predicts a Trump victory. Its creator doesn't believe it". Vox.
