The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is a shipping freight-cost index issued daily by the London-based Baltic Exchange. The BDI is a composite of the Capesize, Panamax and Supramax timecharter averages. It is reported around the world as a proxy for dry bulk shipping stocks as well as a general shipping market bellwether.
The BDI is the successor to the Baltic Freight Index (BFI) and came into operation on 1 November 1999. The BDI continues the established time series of the BFI, however, the voyages and vessels covered by the index have changed over time so caution should be exercised in assuming long term constancy of the data.
In 1744, the Virginia and Maryland coffee house in Threadneedle Street, London, changed its name to Virginia and Baltick, to more accurately describe the business interests of the merchants who gathered there. Today's Baltic Exchange has its roots in a committee of merchants formed in 1823 to regulate trading and formalize the exchange of securities on the premises, which by then had moved to the Antwerp Tavern. [1] The first daily freight index was published by the Baltic Exchange in January 1985. [2]
Every working day, a panel of international shipbrokers submits their assessment of the current freight cost on various routes to the Baltic Exchange. The routes are meant to be representative, i.e. large enough in volume to matter for the overall market.
These rate assessments are then weighted together to create both the overall BDI and the size specific Capesize, Panamax, and Supramax indices. The BDI factors in three different sizes of oceangoing dry bulk transport vessels: [3]
The BDI is based on daily assessments of the following 20 routes:
Capesize (180,000 dwt) | |
---|---|
C8_14 | Gibraltar/Hamburg transatlantic round |
C9_14 | Continent/Mediterranean trip China-Japan |
C10_14 | China-Japan transpacific round voyage |
C14 | China-Brazil round voyage |
C16 | China via Australia/Indonesia or South Africa or Brazil or US West Coast to UK/Continent/Mediterranean |
Panamax(82,500 dwt) | |
---|---|
P1A_82 | Skaw-Gib transatlantic round voyage |
P2A_82 | Skaw-Gib trip HK-S Korea incl Taiwan |
P3A_82 | HK-S Korea incl Taiwan 1 Pacific round voyage |
P4_82 | HK-S Korea incl Taiwan trip to Skaw-Gib |
P6_82 | Dely Spore or Busan (during US grain season) round voyage via Atlantic |
Supramax (58,328 dwt) | |
---|---|
S1B_58 | Canakkale trip via Med or Bl Sea to China-South Korea |
S1C_58 | US Gulf trip to China-south Japan |
S2_58 | North China one Australian or Pacific round voyage |
S3_58 | North China trip to West Africa |
S4A_58 | US Gulf trip to Skaw-Passero |
S4B_58 | Skaw-Passero trip to US Gulf |
S5_58 | West Africa trip via east coast South America to north China |
S8_58 | South China trip via Indonesia to east coast India |
S9_58 | West Africa trip via east coast South America to Skaw-Passero |
S10_58 | South China trip via Indonesia to south China |
The BDI contains route assessments based only on time-charter hire rates "USD hire paid per day".
The index can be accessed on a subscription basis directly from the Baltic Exchange as well as from some financial information and news services such as Bloomberg and Reuters.
Following consultation with members, in January 2018 the Baltic Exchange announced that it will be implementing changes to the Baltic Dry Index (BDI). From 1 March 2018 the BDI will be re-weighted to the following ratios of timecharter assessments: 40% Capesize, 30% Panamax and 30% Supramax and will no longer include the Handysize timecharter average. A multiplier of 0.1 will be applied.
External research concluded that the contribution of the various dry bulk vessel types to the dry bulk market was 40% Capesize, 25% Panamax, 25% Supramax and 10% Handysize. This analysis was based on the fleet composition, vessel utilisation including ballasting and total cargo moved – based on import/export reports and AIS data, the BDI weightings will be reviewed on an annual basis. The decision to not include Handysize contributions makes no statistical difference to the calculation of the BDI, based on the above weightings.
The Baltic Exchange will continue to report the Handysize vessel market and in November 2017, as part of the ongoing review of its indices, launched a trial of a new Handysize Imabari 38 benchmark vessel and seven timecharter routes.
Most directly, the index measures the demand for shipping capacity versus the supply of dry bulk carriers. The demand for shipping varies with the amount of cargo that is being traded or moved in various markets (supply and demand).
The supply of cargo ships is generally both tight and inelastic; it takes two years to build a new ship, and the cost of laying up a ship is too high to take out of trade for short intervals, [4] the way you might park a car safely over the winter. So, marginal increases in demand can push the index higher quickly, and marginal demand decreases can cause the index to fall rapidly. e.g. "if you have 100 ships competing for 99 cargoes, rates go down, whereas if you've 99 ships competing for 100 cargoes, rates go up. In other words, small fleet changes and logistical matters can crash rates..." [5] [ failed verification ] The index indirectly measures global supply and demand for the commodities shipped aboard dry bulk carriers, such as building materials, coal, metallic ores, and grains.
Because dry bulk primarily consists of materials that function as raw material inputs to the production of intermediate or finished goods, such as concrete, electricity, steel, and food, the index is also seen as an efficient economic indicator of future economic growth and production. The BDI is considered by some people as a leading economic indicator because it predicts future economic activity. [6] [7]
Other leading economic indicators, which serve as the foundation of important political and economic decisions, are often measured to serve narrow interests, and subjected to adjustments or revisions. Payroll or employment numbers are often estimates; consumer confidence appears to measure nothing more than sentiment, often with no link to actual consumer behavior; gross national product figures are consistently revised; and so forth. Unlike stock and bond markets, the BDI "is totally devoid of speculative content". says Howard Simons, an economist and columnist at TheStreet.com. "People don't book freighters unless they have cargo to move." [8]
On 20 May 2008, the index reached its record high level since its introduction in 1985, reaching 11,793 points. Half a year later, on 5 December 2008, the index had dropped by 94%, to 663 points, the lowest since 1986; [9] though by 4 February 2009 it had recovered a little lost ground, back to 1,316. [10] These low rates moved dangerously close to the combined operating costs of vessels, fuel, and crews. [11] [12]
By the end of 2008, shipping times had been already increased by reduced speeds to save fuel consumption, but lack of credit meant the reduction of letters of credit, historically required to load cargoes for departure at ports. Debt load of future ship construction was also a problem for shipping companies, with several major bankruptcies and implications for shipyards. [13] [14] This, combined with the collapsing price of raw commodities created a perfect storm for the world's marine commerce.[ citation needed ]
During 2009, the index recovered as high as 4661, but then bottomed out at 1043 in February, 2011, after continued deliveries of new ships and flooding in Australia. [15]
Though rebounding to 2000 on 7 October, [16] by 3 February 2012, the index made a new multi-decade low of 647 on a continued glut of dry bulk carriers and decreases in orders of iron and coal. [17]
On 10 February 2016 the Baltic Dry Index reached the historic low of 290. [18]
By 15 November 2016 it rebounded to over 1000 sending the entire shipping industry to massive gains. Some companies reached 2000%+ in share price gains in as little as 5 days.[ citation needed ]
A container ship is a cargo ship that carries all of its load in truck-size intermodal containers, in a technique called containerization. Container ships are a common means of commercial intermodal freight transport and now carry most seagoing non-bulk cargo.
Freight consists of goods conveyed by water, air, or land, while cargo refers specifically to freight when conveyed via water or air. In economics, freight refers to goods transported at a freight rate for commercial gain. The term cargo is also used in case of goods in the cold-chain, because the perishable inventory is always in transit towards a final end-use, even when it is held in cold storage or other similar climate-controlled facilities, including warehouses.
A cargo ship or freighter is a merchant ship that carries cargo, goods, and materials from one port to another. Thousands of cargo carriers ply the world's seas and oceans each year, handling the bulk of international trade. Cargo ships are usually specially designed for the task, often being equipped with cranes and other mechanisms to load and unload, and come in all sizes. Today, they are almost always built of welded steel, and with some exceptions generally have a life expectancy of 25 to 30 years before being scrapped.
A boat or ship engaged in the tramp trade is one which does not have a fixed schedule, itinerary nor published ports of call, and trades on the spot market as opposed to freight liners. A steamship engaged in the tramp trade is sometimes called a tramp steamer; similar terms, such as tramp freighter and tramper, are also used. Chartering is done chiefly on London, New York, and Singapore shipbroking exchanges. The Baltic Exchange serves as a type of stock market index for the trade.
The Baltic Exchange is a membership organisation for the maritime industry, and freight market information provider for the trading and settlement of physical and derivative contracts.
A bulk carrier or bulker is a merchant ship specially designed to transport unpackaged bulk cargo—such as grain, coal, ore, steel coils, and cement—in its cargo holds. Since the first specialized bulk carrier was built in 1852, economic forces have led to increased size and sophistication of these ships. Today's bulk carriers are specially designed to maximize capacity, safety, efficiency, and durability.
Bulk cargo is commodity cargo that is transported unpackaged in large quantities.
Shipbroking is a financial service, which forms part of the global shipping industry. Shipbrokers are specialist intermediaries/negotiators between shipowners and charterers who use ships to transport cargo, or between buyers and sellers of vessels.
Capesize ships are the largest dry cargo ships with ball mark dimension: about 170,000 DWT capacity, 290 m long, 45 m beam (wide), 18m draught. They are too large to transit the Suez Canal or Panama Canal, and so have to pass either Cape Agulhas or Cape Horn to traverse between oceans.
Handymax and Supramax are naval architecture terms for the larger bulk carriers in the Handysize class. Handysize class consists of Supramax, Handymax, and Handy. The ships are used for less voluminous cargoes, and different cargoes can be carried in different holds. Larger capacities for dry bulk include Panamax, Capesize and Very Large Ore Carriers and Chinamax.
Handysize is a naval architecture term for smaller bulk carriers or oil tanker with deadweight of up to 50,000 tonnes, although there is no official definition in terms of exact tonnages. Handysize is also sometimes used to refer to the span of up to 60,000 tons, with the vessels above 35,000 tonnes referred to as Handymax or Supramax.
The Compagnie Maritime Belge (CMB) is one of the oldest Antwerp ship-owners. It is controlled by the Saverys family who also own major stakes in the Exmar and Euronav groups.
The H. Vogemann Group is a German shipping company. Founded in 1886, the company is privately owned by its managing partners and its fleet of bulk carriers has a capacity of more than 1.5 million tonnes deadweight (DWT).
Portline Transportes Marítimos Internacionais, SA., often simply called Portline is a Portuguese shipping company. The company has diverse business activities, including dry bulk, containerised, and break-bulk cargo shipping, shipping agency, forwarding and logistics services, ship management and manning, ship brokerage and chartering, and a container depot service.
Pacific Basin Shipping Limited is a maritime transport company engaged in international dry bulk shipping through the operation of a fleet of vessels to carry diverse cargoes for many of the world's leading commodity groups. Pacific Basin operates a fleet of Handysize and Supramax vessels globally.
The international shipping industry can be divided into four closely related shipping markets, each trading in a different commodity: the freight market, the sale and purchase market, the newbuilding market and the demolition market. These four markets are linked by cash flow and push the market traders in the direction they want.
Excel Maritime Carriers Ltd. is a shipping company specializing in the transport of dry bulk cargo such as iron ore, coal and grains, as well as bauxite, fertilizers and steel products. As of May 2009, it is the largest bulk carrier by DWT of any U.S.-listed company. Approximately one-third of all seaborne trade is dry bulk related. Excel Maritime was a component of the NYSE Composite Index and the PHLX Marine Shipping Index. The stock has been de-listed from the exchanges as per their rules of listing
A forward freight agreement (FFA) is a financial forward contract that allows ship owners, charterers and speculators to hedge against the volatility of freight rates. It gives the contract owner the right to buy and sell the price of freight for future dates. FFAs are built on an index composed of a shipping route for tanker or a basket of routes for dry bulk, contracts are traded ‘over the counter’ on a principal-to-principal basis and can be cleared through a clearing house.
Foremost Group is a privately held American shipping company, headquartered in New York City. It operates globally, chartering vessels to companies in the dry bulk shipping industry. Its clients include Bunge, Cargill, Dreyfus (Rotterdam), MOL (Tokyo) and NYK Line (Tokyo). Foremost Group was founded in 1964 by James Si-Cheng Chao and his wife Ruth Mulan Chu Chao, who each immigrated to the United States from China by way of Taiwan. Its chair and CEO since 2008 is Angela Chao, the sixth daughter of the company's founders and the third of their children born in the United States.
Oldendorff Carriers is a family owned shipping company with headquarters in Lübeck.
The BDI began in 1985 as the Baltic Freight Index