Binary betting

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Binary betting is a type of financial betting which displays the price of a bet as an odds index from 0 to 100 where the bet settles at 100 if an event happens and 0 if it does not. [1] The greater the likelihood of an event happening the higher this price will be. A price of 91-93, for example, suggests the betting broker which offers the bet believes the event has a 92% likelihood of happening. An event can be bought or sold, making it possible to profit both from the event occurring or not occurring. A bettor who thinks that the event will occur will buy the bet and a bettor who thinks the event won't occur will sell the bet. An event could be, for example, the "FTSE to close 11 points higher by midday", "the FTSE will end higher on the day", "Brent Oil will close between 50 and 60 cents lower" and so on.

Contents

Types

Calculating winnings and losses

Binary bet winnings and losses are calculated in the following manner:

When buying, profit/loss = the closing price minus the opening price times the bet size (per point)

When selling, profit/loss = the opening price minus the closing price times the bet size (per point)

Example one: The bet is that "the FTSE will close higher on the day". The price is 38-43. Buy is chosen (agree with the proposition) at 43 for £5 per point. The FTSE does close higher on the day, meaning that the bet makes up at 100. Therefore the winnings are:

     (100 - 43) x £5 = £285

Example two: The same bet, that "the FTSE will close higher on the day". The price is 38-43. Buy is chosen (agree with the proposition) at 43 for £5 per point. The FTSE does not close higher on the day, meaning that the bet makes up at 0. Therefore the winnings - or losses in this case - are:

    (0 - 43) x £5 = -£215

Example three: The same bet, that "the FTSE will close higher on the day". The price is 38-43. Sell is chosen (disagree with the proposition) at 38 for £5 per point. The FTSE does not close higher on the day, meaning that the bet makes up at 0. Therefore the winnings are:

    (38 - 0) x £5 = £190

Floating and fixed binaries

A floating binary is the most common type of binary bet. It is a bet where the binary price moves but the strike price (the price the market needs to reach for the event to occur and therefore make up at either 100 or 0) is fixed.
For example, if the bet is "Brent Oil will end down on the day" the buy and sell prices will change throughout the course of the bet, but the proposition itself will remain the same.

A fixed binary is a bet where the binary price remains fixed but the strike price (the price the market needs to reach for the event to occur and therefore make up at 100) is moving.
For example, if the bet is that "GBP/USD will end up 25 points by the end of the betting period", and it can be bought at 95, the buy price will remain at 95 though the target price for the bet might change to GBP/USD being up 21 then 19 then 13 then 7 etc.

Floating and fixed binary bets are fundamentally distinct. With floating binaries the buy and sell prices float while the target price remains static. With fixed binaries the buy and sell prices remain fixed while the target price moves.

Closing out a floating bet

A floating binary bet - and only a floating binary bet - can be closed out before the end of the lifetime of the bet. This allows the taking of an early profit or cutting losses if the bet is going the wrong way. The same amount can be sold as was bought to close, or the same amount can be sold as was bought.

Further, a partial close can be performed, where less units can be sold or bought than were bought or sold, therefore leaving part of the bet running.

For example, a price of 32-35 may be offered for "the FTSE to finish up at the end of the day". The bettor thinks the FTSE will rise, so they buy at 35 for £10 a point. Later in the day the FTSE has risen and a price of 80-83 is being offered. To close this bet and take an early profit the bettor would sell at 80 points for the same bet size, ie £10 a point.

The profit on the bet would be (80 - 35) x £10 = £450.

Further reading

Related Research Articles

In economics and finance, arbitrage is the practice of taking advantage of a difference in prices in two or more markets – striking a combination of matching deals to capitalize on the difference, the profit being the difference between the market prices at which the unit is traded. When used by academics, an arbitrage is a transaction that involves no negative cash flow at any probabilistic or temporal state and a positive cash flow in at least one state; in simple terms, it is the possibility of a risk-free profit after transaction costs. For example, an arbitrage opportunity is present when there is the possibility to instantaneously buy something for a low price and sell it for a higher price.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Gambling</span> Wagering of money on a game of chance or event with an uncertain outcome

Gambling is the wagering of something of value on a random event with the intent of winning something else of value, where instances of strategy are discounted. Gambling thus requires three elements to be present: consideration, risk (chance), and a prize. The outcome of the wager is often immediate, such as a single roll of dice, a spin of a roulette wheel, or a horse crossing the finish line, but longer time frames are also common, allowing wagers on the outcome of a future sports contest or even an entire sports season.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Parimutuel betting</span> Betting system in which all bets of a particular type are placed together in a pool

Parimutuel betting or pool betting is a betting system in which all bets of a particular type are placed together in a pool; taxes and the "house-take" or "vigorish" are deducted, and payoff odds are calculated by sharing the pool among all winning bets. In some countries it is known as the tote after the totalisator, which calculates and displays bets already made.

Spread betting is any of various types of wagering on the outcome of an event where the pay-off is based on the accuracy of the wager, rather than a simple "win or lose" outcome, such as fixed-odds betting or parimutuel betting.

Fixed-odds betting is a form of gambling where individuals place bets on the outcome of an event, such as sports matches or horse races, at predetermined odds. In fixed-odds betting, the odds are fixed and determined at the time of placing the bet. These odds reflect the likelihood of a particular outcome occurring. If the bettor's prediction is correct, they receive a payout based on the fixed odds. This means that the potential winnings are known at the time of placing the bet, regardless of any changes in the odds leading up to the event.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Contango</span> Situation when futures prices are above the expected spot price at maturity

Contango is a situation in which the futures price of a commodity is higher than the expected spot price of the contract at maturity. In a contango situation, arbitrageurs or speculators are "willing to pay more [now] for a commodity [to be received] at some point in the future than the actual expected price of the commodity [at that future point]. This may be due to people's desire to pay a premium to have the commodity in the future rather than paying the costs of storage and carry costs of buying the commodity today." On the other side of the trade, hedgers are happy to sell futures contracts and accept the higher-than-expected returns. A contango market is also known as a normal market or carrying-cost market.

In probability theory, odds provide a measure of the likelihood of a particular outcome. When specific events are equally likely, odds are calculated as the ratio of the number of events that produce that outcome to the number that do not. Odds are commonly used in gambling and statistics.

A betting exchange is a marketplace for customers to bet on the outcome of discrete events. Betting exchanges offer the same opportunities to bet as a bookmaker with a few differences. Gamblers can buy and sell the outcome, and they can trade in real-time throughout the event, either to cut their losses or lock in profit. Bookmaker operators generate revenue by offering less efficient odds. Betting exchanges normally generate revenue by charging a small commission on winning bets.

A hedge is an investment position intended to offset potential losses or gains that may be incurred by a companion investment. A hedge can be constructed from many types of financial instruments, including stocks, exchange-traded funds, insurance, forward contracts, swaps, options, gambles, many types of over-the-counter and derivative products, and futures contracts.

An equity swap is a financial derivative contract where a set of future cash flows are agreed to be exchanged between two counterparties at set dates in the future. The two cash flows are usually referred to as "legs" of the swap; one of these "legs" is usually pegged to a floating rate such as LIBOR. This leg is also commonly referred to as the "floating leg". The other leg of the swap is based on the performance of either a share of stock or a stock market index. This leg is commonly referred to as the "equity leg". Most equity swaps involve a floating leg vs. an equity leg, although some exist with two equity legs.

Vigorish is the fee charged by a bookmaker for accepting a gambler's wager. In American English, it can also refer to the interest owed a loanshark in consideration for credit. The term came to English usage via Yiddish slang which was itself a loanword from Russian.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Sports betting</span> Form of gambling

Sports betting is the activity of predicting sports results and placing a wager on the outcome.

Risk arbitrage, also known as merger arbitrage, is an investment strategy that speculates on the successful completion of mergers and acquisitions. An investor that employs this strategy is known as an arbitrageur. Risk arbitrage is a type of event-driven investing in that it attempts to exploit pricing inefficiencies caused by a corporate event.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Handicapping</span> Methods of leveling the outcome in a competitive sport or game

Handicapping, in sport and games, is the practice of assigning advantage through scoring compensation or other advantage given to different contestants to equalize the chances of winning. The word also applies to the various methods by which the advantage is calculated. In principle, a more experienced participant is disadvantaged, or a less experienced or capable participant is advantaged, in order to make it possible for the less experienced participant to win whilst maintaining fairness. Handicapping is used in scoring many games and competitive sports, including go, shogi, chess, croquet, golf, bowling, polo, basketball, and track and field events. Handicap races are common in clubs which encourage all levels of participants, such as swimming or in cycling clubs and sailing clubs, or which allow participants with a variety of standards of equipment. Often races, contests or tournaments where this practice is competitively employed are known as Handicaps.

Fixed-income arbitrage is a group of market-neutral-investment strategies that are designed to take advantage of differences in interest rates between varying fixed-income securities or contracts. Arbitrage in terms of investment strategy, involves buying securities on one market for immediate resale on another market in order to profit from a price discrepancy.

In finance, volatility arbitrage is a term for financial arbitrage techniques directly dependent and based on volatility.

Even money is a wagering proposition with even odds - the bettor stands to lose or win the same amount of money. Beyond gambling, even money can mean an event whose occurrence is about as likely to occur as not. Even money is also known as 50–50.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Financial betting</span> Financial instrument

Financial betting refers to the wagering on the price development of a financial instrument at some later date relative to the current price or level of the instrument, against odds offered by a bookmaker. Maximum potential pay-off of the wager is known when the bet is taken and as a corollary risk is known beforehand by being limited to the initial stake.

In probability theory, Proebsting's paradox is an argument that appears to show that the Kelly criterion can lead to ruin. Although it can be resolved mathematically, it raises some interesting issues about the practical application of Kelly, especially in investing. It was named and first discussed by Edward O. Thorp in 2008. The paradox was named for Todd Proebsting, its creator.

Due-column betting is a type of fixed-profit betting strategy whereby a bettor increases the amount they wager on a single proposition after each successive loss. According to this system, the bettor determines a target profit before they begin betting. Then they increase their bet on propositions following a loss in such a way that a win will recover the sum of all amounts they have lost from their preceding bets plus gain them their predetermined profit.

References

  1. Taleb, Nassim. ""Prediction Markets" & Game Setups Have Nothing to Do With Real Risks" (PDF). NYU-Poly. Archived from the original (PDF) on 11 July 2015. Retrieved 10 July 2015.
  2. "Binary Bets are so Exciting!". www.spread-betting.com. Retrieved 2016-09-29.