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Analysis of variance (ANOVA) is a collection of statistical models and their associated estimation procedures used to analyze the differences among means. ANOVA was developed by the statistician Ronald Fisher. ANOVA is based on the law of total variance, where the observed variance in a particular variable is partitioned into components attributable to different sources of variation. In its simplest form, ANOVA provides a statistical test of whether two or more population means are equal, and therefore generalizes the t-test beyond two means. In other words, the ANOVA is used to test the difference between two or more means.
Statistics is the discipline that concerns the collection, organization, analysis, interpretation, and presentation of data. In applying statistics to a scientific, industrial, or social problem, it is conventional to begin with a statistical population or a statistical model to be studied. Populations can be diverse groups of people or objects such as "all people living in a country" or "every atom composing a crystal". Statistics deals with every aspect of data, including the planning of data collection in terms of the design of surveys and experiments.
A statistical hypothesis test is a method of statistical inference used to decide whether the data at hand sufficiently support a particular hypothesis. Hypothesis testing allows us to make probabilistic statements about population parameters.
In statistical hypothesis testing, a result has statistical significance when a result at least as "extreme" would be very infrequent if the null hypothesis were true. More precisely, a study's defined significance level, denoted by , is the probability of the study rejecting the null hypothesis, given that the null hypothesis is true; and the p-value of a result, , is the probability of obtaining a result at least as extreme, given that the null hypothesis is true. The result is statistically significant, by the standards of the study, when . The significance level for a study is chosen before data collection, and is typically set to 5% or much lower—depending on the field of study.
In scientific research, the null hypothesis is the claim that no relationship exists between two sets of data or variables being analyzed. The null hypothesis is that any experimentally observed difference is due to chance alone, and an underlying causative relationship does not exist, hence the term "null". In addition to the null hypothesis, an alternative hypothesis is also developed, which claims that a relationship does exist between two variables.
In statistics, the power of a binary hypothesis test is the probability that the test correctly rejects the null hypothesis when a specific alternative hypothesis is true. It is commonly denoted by , and represents the chances of a true positive detection conditional on the actual existence of an effect to detect. Statistical power ranges from 0 to 1, and as the power of a test increases, the probability of making a type II error by wrongly failing to reject the null hypothesis decreases.
A Z-test is any statistical test for which the distribution of the test statistic under the null hypothesis can be approximated by a normal distribution. Z-tests test the mean of a distribution. For each significance level in the confidence interval, the Z-test has a single critical value which makes it more convenient than the Student's t-test whose critical values are defined by the sample size. Both the Z-test and Student's t-test have similarities in that they both help determine the significance of a set of data. However, the z-test is rarely used in practice because the population deviation is difficult to determine.
In statistics, the Mann–Whitney U test is a nonparametric test of the null hypothesis that, for randomly selected values X and Y from two populations, the probability of X being greater than Y is equal to the probability of Y being greater than X.
In statistics, an effect size is a value measuring the strength of the relationship between two variables in a population, or a sample-based estimate of that quantity. It can refer to the value of a statistic calculated from a sample of data, the value of a parameter for a hypothetical population, or to the equation that operationalizes how statistics or parameters lead to the effect size value. Examples of effect sizes include the correlation between two variables, the regression coefficient in a regression, the mean difference, or the risk of a particular event happening. Effect sizes complement statistical hypothesis testing, and play an important role in power analyses, sample size planning, and in meta-analyses. The cluster of data-analysis methods concerning effect sizes is referred to as estimation statistics.
Linear trend estimation is a statistical technique to aid interpretation of data. When a series of measurements of a process are treated as, for example, a sequences or time series, trend estimation can be used to make and justify statements about tendencies in the data, by relating the measurements to the times at which they occurred. This model can then be used to describe the behaviour of the observed data, without explaining it.
A t-test is a type of statistical analysis used to compare the averages of two groups and determine if the differences between them are more likely to arise from random chance. It is any statistical hypothesis test in which the test statistic follows a Student's t-distribution under the null hypothesis. It is most commonly applied when the test statistic would follow a normal distribution if the value of a scaling term in the test statistic were known. When the scaling term is estimated based on the data, the test statistic—under certain conditions—follows a Student's t distribution. The t-test's most common application is to test whether the means of two populations are different.
In null-hypothesis significance testing, the p-value is the probability of obtaining test results at least as extreme as the result actually observed, under the assumption that the null hypothesis is correct. A very small p-value means that such an extreme observed outcome would be very unlikely under the null hypothesis. Even though reporting p-values of statistical tests is common practice in academic publications of many quantitative fields, misinterpretation and misuse of p-values is widespread and has been a major topic in mathematics and metascience. In 2016, the American Statistician Association (ASA) made a formal statement that "p-values do not measure the probability that the studied hypothesis is true, or the probability that the data were produced by random chance alone" and that "a p-value, or statistical significance, does not measure the size of an effect or the importance of a result" or "evidence regarding a model or hypothesis." That said, a 2019 task force by ASA has issued a statement on statistical significance and replicability, concluding with: "p-values and significance tests, when properly applied and interpreted, increase the rigor of the conclusions drawn from data."
In statistical significance testing, a one-tailed test and a two-tailed test are alternative ways of computing the statistical significance of a parameter inferred from a data set, in terms of a test statistic. A two-tailed test is appropriate if the estimated value is greater or less than a certain range of values, for example, whether a test taker may score above or below a specific range of scores. This method is used for null hypothesis testing and if the estimated value exists in the critical areas, the alternative hypothesis is accepted over the null hypothesis. A one-tailed test is appropriate if the estimated value may depart from the reference value in only one direction, left or right, but not both. An example can be whether a machine produces more than one-percent defective products. In this situation, if the estimated value exists in one of the one-sided critical areas, depending on the direction of interest, the alternative hypothesis is accepted over the null hypothesis. Alternative names are one-sided and two-sided tests; the terminology "tail" is used because the extreme portions of distributions, where observations lead to rejection of the null hypothesis, are small and often "tail off" toward zero as in the normal distribution, colored in yellow, or "bell curve", pictured on the right and colored in green.
This glossary of statistics and probability is a list of definitions of terms and concepts used in the mathematical sciences of statistics and probability, their sub-disciplines, and related fields. For additional related terms, see Glossary of mathematics and Glossary of experimental design.
A permutation test is an exact statistical hypothesis test making use of the proof by contradiction. A permutation test involves two or more samples. The null hypothesis is that all samples come from the same distribution . Under the null hypothesis, the distribution of the test statistic is obtained by calculating all possible values of the test statistic under possible rearrangements of the observed data. Permutation tests are, therefore, a form of resampling.
In medicine and psychology, clinical significance is the practical importance of a treatment effect—whether it has a real genuine, palpable, noticeable effect on daily life.
Estimation statistics, or simply estimation, is a data analysis framework that uses a combination of effect sizes, confidence intervals, precision planning, and meta-analysis to plan experiments, analyze data and interpret results. It complements hypothesis testing approaches such as null hypothesis significance testing (NHST), by going beyond the question is an effect present or not, and provides information about how large an effect is. Estimation statistics is sometimes referred to as the new statistics.
Misuse of p-values is common in scientific research and scientific education. p-values are often used or interpreted incorrectly; the American Statistical Association states that p-values can indicate how incompatible the data are with a specified statistical model. From a Neyman–Pearson hypothesis testing approach to statistical inferences, the data obtained by comparing the p-value to a significance level will yield one of two results: either the null hypothesis is rejected, or the null hypothesis cannot be rejected at that significance level. From a Fisherian statistical testing approach to statistical inferences, a low p-value means either that the null hypothesis is true and a highly improbable event has occurred or that the null hypothesis is false.
Equivalence tests are a variety of hypothesis tests used to draw statistical inferences from observed data. In these tests, the null hypothesis is defined as an effect large enough to be deemed interesting, specified by an equivalence bound. The alternative hypothesis is any effect that is less extreme than said equivalence bound. The observed data are statistically compared against the equivalence bounds. If the statistical test indicates the observed data is surprising, assuming that true effects are at least as extreme as the equivalence bounds, a Neyman-Pearson approach to statistical inferences can be used to reject effect sizes larger than the equivalence bounds with a pre-specified Type 1 error rate.
In statistics, dichotomous thinking or binary thinking is the process of seeing a discontinuity in the possible values that a p-value can take during null hypothesis significance testing: it is either above the significance threshold or below. When applying dichotomous thinking, a first p-value of 0.0499 will be interpreted the same as a p-value of 0.0001 while a second p-value of 0.0501 will be interpreted the same as a p-value of 0.7. The fact that first and second p-values are mathematically very close is thus completely disregarded and values of p are not considered as continuous but are interpreted dichotomously with respect to the significance threshold. A common measure of dichotomous thinking is the cliff effect. A reason to avoid dichotomous thinking is that p-values and other statistics naturally change from study to study due to random variation alone; decisions about refutation or support of a scientific hypothesis based on a result from a single study are therefore not reliable.
References
- ↑ Pashler, Harold E.; Stevens, S. S. (2002). Steven's handbook of experimental psychology. Chichester: John Wiley & Sons. pp. 138, 422. ISBN 0-471-44333-6.
The counternull revolves around an increasingly common measure called "effect size," which, essentially, is the mean magnitude of some effect (e.g., the mean difference between two conditions) divided by the standard deviation (generally pooled over the conditions).
- ↑ Rubin, Donald B.; Rosenthal, Robert; Rosnow, Ralph L. (2000). Contrasts and effect sizes in behavioral research: a correlational approach. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. p. 5. ISBN 0-521-65258-8.
- ↑ Iacobucci, Dawn (2005). "From the Editor" (PDF). Journal of Consumer Research . 32: 6–11. doi:10.1086/430648. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2005-11-08. Retrieved 2007-08-01.
- ↑ Rosenthal, R.; Rubin, D.B. (1994). "The counternull value of an effect size: A new statistic". Psychological Science . 5 (6): 329–334. doi:10.1111/j.1467-9280.1994.tb00281.x.
- ↑ Pasher (2002), p. 348: "The reject/fail-to-reject [the null hypothesis] dichotomy keeps the field awash in confusion and artificial controversy."
- ↑ Boik, Robert J. (2001). "Review of Contrasts and Effect Sizes in Behavioral Research: A Correlational Approach by Robert Rosenthal, Ralph L. Rosnow & Donald B. Rubin". Journal of the American Statistical Association. 96 (456): 1528–1529. doi:10.1198/jasa.2001.s432. JSTOR 3085927.
If interval estimates of standardized effect size measures are desired, then a more sensible approach is to construct confidence intervals having fixed confidence coefficients.