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The global warming controversy concerns the public debate over whether global warming is occurring, how much has occurred in modern times, what has caused it, what its effects will be, whether any action can or should be taken to curb it, and if so what that action should be. In the scientific literature, there is a very strong consensus that global surface temperatures have increased in recent decades and that the trend is caused by human-induced emissions of greenhouse gases. No scientific body of national or international standing disagrees with this view, though a few organizations with members in extractive industries hold non-committal positions, and some have tried to persuade the public that climate change is not happening, or if the climate is changing it is not because of human influence, attempting to sow doubt in the scientific consensus.
Phytoplankton are the autotrophic (self-feeding) components of the plankton community and a key part of ocean and freshwater ecosystems. The name comes from the Greek words φυτόν, meaning 'plant', and πλαγκτός, meaning 'wanderer' or 'drifter'.
Global cooling was a conjecture, especially during the 1970s, of imminent cooling of the Earth culminating in a period of extensive glaciation, due to the cooling effects of aerosols or orbital forcing. Some press reports in the 1970s speculated about continued cooling; these did not accurately reflect the scientific literature of the time, which was generally more concerned with warming from an enhanced greenhouse effect.
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an irregular periodic variation in winds and sea surface temperatures over the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean, affecting the climate of much of the tropics and subtropics. The warming phase of the sea temperature is known as El Niño and the cooling phase as La Niña. The Southern Oscillation is the accompanying atmospheric component, coupled with the sea temperature change: El Niño is accompanied by high air surface pressure in the tropical western Pacific and La Niña with low air surface pressure there. The two periods last several months each and typically occur every few years with varying intensity per period.
The first systematic measurements of global direct irradiance at the Earth's surface began in the 1950s. A decline in irradiance was soon observed, and it was given the name of global dimming. It continued from 1950s until 1980s, with an observed reduction of 4–5% per decade, even though solar activity did not vary more than the usual at the time. Global dimming has instead been attributed to an increase in atmospheric particulate matter, predominantly sulfate aerosols, as the result of rapidly growing air pollution due to post-war industrialization. After 1980s, global dimming started to reverse, alongside reductions in particulate emissions, in what has been described as global brightening, although this reversal is only considered "partial" for now. The reversal has also been globally uneven, as the dimming trend continued during the 1990s over some mostly developing countries like India, Zimbabwe, Chile and Venezuela. Over China, the dimming trend continued at a slower rate after 1990, and did not begin to reverse until around 2005.
Phenology is the study of periodic events in biological life cycles and how these are influenced by seasonal and interannual variations in climate, as well as habitat factors.
Sea surface temperature (SST), or ocean surface temperature, is the ocean temperature close to the surface. The exact meaning of surface varies according to how we measure it. It is between 1 millimetre (0.04 in) and 20 metres (70 ft) below the sea surface. Sea surface temperatures greatly modify air masses in the Earth's atmosphere within a short distance of the shore. Local areas of heavy snow can form in bands downwind of warm water bodies within an otherwise cold air mass. Warm sea surface temperatures can develop and strengthen cyclones over the Ocean. Experts call this process tropical cyclogenesis. Tropical cyclones can also cause a cool wake. This is due to turbulent mixing of the upper 30 metres (100 ft) of the ocean. Sea surface temperature changes during the day. This is like the air above it, but to a lesser degree. There is less variation in sea surface temperature on breezy days than on calm days. Ocean currents, such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, can affect sea surface temperatures over several decades. Thermohaline circulation has a major impact on average sea surface temperature throughout most of the world's oceans.
The oxygen minimum zone (OMZ), sometimes referred to as the shadow zone, is the zone in which oxygen saturation in seawater in the ocean is at its lowest. This zone occurs at depths of about 200 to 1,500 m (700–4,900 ft), depending on local circumstances. OMZs are found worldwide, typically along the western coast of continents, in areas where an interplay of physical and biological processes concurrently lower the oxygen concentration and restrict the water from mixing with surrounding waters, creating a "pool" of water where oxygen concentrations fall from the normal range of 4–6 mg/L to below 2 mg/L.
The Greenland ice sheet is a vast body of ice covering 1,710,000 square kilometres (660,000 sq mi), roughly near 80% of the surface of Greenland. It is sometimes referred to as an ice cap, or under the term inland ice, or its Danish equivalent, indlandsis. The acronym GIS is frequently used in the scientific literature.
A Heinrich event is a natural phenomenon in which large groups of icebergs break off from the Laurentide Ice Sheet and traverse the Hudson Strait into the North Atlantic. First described by marine geologist Hartmut Heinrich, they occurred during five of the last seven glacial periods over the past 640,000 years. Heinrich events are particularly well documented for the last glacial period but notably absent from the penultimate glaciation. The icebergs contained rock mass that had been eroded by the glaciers, and as they melted, this material was dropped to the sea floor as ice rafted debris forming deposits called Heinrich layers.
An abrupt climate change occurs when the climate system is forced to transition at a rate that is determined by the climate system energy-balance. The transition rate is more rapid than the rate of change of the external forcing, though it may include sudden forcing events such as meteorite impacts. Abrupt climate change therefore is a variation beyond the variability of a climate. Past events include the end of the Carboniferous Rainforest Collapse, Younger Dryas, Dansgaard-Oeschger events, Heinrich events and possibly also the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum. The term is also used within the context of climate change to describe sudden climate change that is detectable over the time-scale of a human lifetime, possibly as the result of feedback loops within the climate system or tipping points.
The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), also known as Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV), is the theorized variability of the sea surface temperature (SST) of the North Atlantic Ocean on the timescale of several decades.
Ocean heat content (OHC) is the energy absorbed and stored by oceans. To calculate the ocean heat content, it is necessary to measure ocean temperature at many different locations and depths. Integrating the areal density of ocean heat over an ocean basin or entire ocean gives the total ocean heat content. Between 1971 and 2018, the rise in ocean heat content accounted for over 90% of Earth’s excess thermal energy from global heating. The main driver of this increase was anthropogenic forcing via rising greenhouse gas emissions. By 2020, about one third of the added energy had propagated to depths below 700 meters. In 2022, the world’s oceans were again the hottest in the historical record and exceeded the previous 2021 record maximum. The four highest ocean heat observations occurred in the period 2019–2022. The North Pacific, North Atlantic, the Mediterranean, and the Southern Ocean all recorded their highest heat observations for more than sixty years. Ocean heat content and sea level rise are important indicators of climate change.
Major environmental issues caused by contemporary climate change in the Arctic region range from the well-known, such as the loss of sea ice or melting of the Greenland ice sheet, to more obscure, but deeply significant issues, such as permafrost thaw, as well as related social consequences for locals and the geopolitical ramifications of these changes. The Arctic is likely to be especially affected by climate change because of the high projected rate of regional warming and associated impacts. Temperature projections for the Arctic region were assessed in 2007: These suggested already averaged warming of about 2 °C to 9 °C by the year 2100. The range reflects different projections made by different climate models, run with different forcing scenarios. Radiative forcing is a measure of the effect of natural and human activities on the climate. Different forcing scenarios reflect things such as different projections of future human greenhouse gas emissions.
The Antarctica cooling controversy was the result of an apparent contradiction in the observed cooling behavior of Antarctica between 1966 and 2000, which became part of the public debate in the global warming controversy, particularly between advocacy groups of both sides in the public arena including politicians, as well as the popular media. In his novel State of Fear, Michael Crichton asserted that the Antarctic data contradicted global warming. The few scientists who have commented on the supposed controversy state that there is no contradiction, while the author of the paper whose work inspired Crichton's remarks has said that Crichton misused his results. There is no similar controversy within the scientific community, as the small observed changes in Antarctica are consistent with the small changes predicted by climate models, and because the overall trend since comprehensive observations began is now known to be one of warming.
Ocean deoxygenation is the reduction of the oxygen content in different parts of the ocean due to human activities. It occurs firstly in coastal zones where eutrophication has driven some quite rapid declines in oxygen to very low levels. This type of ocean deoxygenation is also called "dead zones". Secondly, there is now an ongoing reduction in oxygen levels in the open ocean: naturally occurring low oxygen areas are now expanding slowly. This expansion is happening as a consequence of human caused climate change. The resulting decrease in oxygen content of the oceans poses a threat to marine life, as well as to people who depend on marine life for nutrition or livelihood. Ocean deoxygenation poses implications for ocean productivity, nutrient cycling, carbon cycling, and marine habitats.
Ice–albedo feedback is a positive feedback climate process where a change in the area of ice caps, glaciers, and sea ice alters the albedo and surface temperature of a planet. Ice is very reflective, therefore it reflects far more solar energy back to space than the other types of land area or open water. Ice–albedo feedback plays an important role in global climate change. For instance, at higher latitudes, warmer temperatures melt the ice sheets. However, if warm temperatures decrease the ice cover and the area is replaced by water or land, the albedo would decrease. This increases the amount of solar energy absorbed, leading to more warming. The change in albedo acts to reinforce the initial alteration in ice area leading to more warming. Warming tends to decrease ice cover and hence decrease the albedo, increasing the amount of solar energy absorbed and leading to more warming. In the geologically recent past, the ice–albedo positive feedback has played a major role in the advances and retreats of the Pleistocene ice sheets. Inversely, cooler temperatures increase ice, which increases albedo, leading to more cooling.
Several factors cause the ocean temperature to vary. These are depth, geographical location and season. Both the temperature and salinity of ocean water differ. Warm surface water is generally saltier than the cooler deep or polar waters. In polar regions, the upper layers of ocean water are cold and fresh. Deep ocean water is cold, salty water found deep below the surface of Earth's oceans. This water has a uniform temperature of around 0-3 °C. The ocean temperature also depends on the amount of solar radiation falling on its surface. In the tropics, with the Sun nearly overhead, the temperature of the surface layers can rise to over 30 °C (86 °F). Near the poles the temperature in equilibrium with the sea ice is about −2 °C (28 °F). There is a continuous circulation of water in the oceans. Thermohaline circulation (THC) is part of the large-scale ocean circulation. It is driven by global density gradients created by surface heat and freshwater fluxes. Warm surface currents cool as they move away from the tropics. This happens as the water becomes denser and sinks. Changes in temperature and density move the cold water back towards the equator as a deep sea current. Then it eventually wells up again towards the surface.
There are many effects of climate change on oceans. One of the main ones is an increase in ocean temperatures. More frequent marine heatwaves are linked to this. The rising temperature contributes to a rise in sea levels. Other effects include ocean acidification, sea ice decline, increased ocean stratification and reductions in oxygen levels. Changes to ocean currents including a weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation are another important effect. All these changes have knock-on effects which disturb marine ecosystems. The main cause of these changes is climate change due to human emissions of greenhouse gases. Carbon dioxide and methane are examples of greenhouse gases. This leads to ocean warming, because the ocean takes up most of the additional heat in the climate system. The ocean absorbs some of the extra carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. This causes the pH value of the ocean to drop. Scientists estimate that the ocean absorbs about 25% of all human-caused CO2 emissions.
A marine heatwave is a period of abnormally high ocean temperatures relative to the average seasonal temperature in a particular marine region. Marine heatwaves are caused by a variety of factors, including shorter term weather phenomena such as fronts, intraseasonal, annual, or decadal modes like El Niño events, and longer term changes like climate change. Marine heatwaves can have biological impacts on ecosystems at individual, population, and community levels. MHVs have lead to severe biodiversity changes such as coral bleaching, sea star wasting disease, harmful algal blooms, and mass mortality of benthic communities. Unlike heatwaves on land, marine heatwaves can extend for millions of square kilometers, persist for weeks to months or even years, and occur at subsurface levels.
References
- ↑ "Workshop on Advances in the Use of Historical Marine Climate Data (MARCDAT-I)". NOAA. February 2002. Retrieved 19 November 2008.
- ↑ Parker, D.E. (November 2004). "Climate: Large-scale warming is not urban". Nature . 432 (7015): 290. Bibcode:2004Natur.432..290P. doi: 10.1038/432290a . PMID 15549087. S2CID 43244647.
- ↑ Pielke, R.A.; T. Matsui (November 2005). "Should light wind and windy nights have the same temperature trends at individual levels even if the boundary layer averaged heat content change is the same?" (PDF). Geophysical Research Letters . 32 (21): L21813. Bibcode:2005GeoRL..3221813P. doi: 10.1029/2005GL024407 . Retrieved 2013-02-03.
- ↑ Parker DE (November 2004). "Climate: large-scale warming is not urban". Nature. 432 (7015): 290. Bibcode:2004Natur.432..290P. doi: 10.1038/432290a . PMID 15549087. S2CID 43244647.
