Driver safety arms race

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The driver safety arms race is a phenomenon whereby car drivers are incentivized to buy larger auto-vehicles in order to protect themselves against other large auto-vehicles. [1] [2] [3] [4] This has a spiralling effect whereby cars get increasingly larger, which has adverse overall effects on traffic safety. [5] [6] It is an example of a prisoners' dilemma, as it can be individually rational to attain larger vehicles while having adverse outcomes on all traffic users. [7]

Crash incompatibility

The underlying incentive of the arms race is crash incompatibility, which refers to the tendency of some vehicles to inflict significantly more damage on another vehicle in a two-car crash. The primary source of this incompatibility is a disparity in mass. A heavier vehicle, such as an SUV or pickup truck, will cause much more serious damage in a crash with a lighter vehicle like a sedan. Research by Michael Anderson and Maximilian Auffhammer suggests that "controlling for own-vehicle weight, being hit by a vehicle that is 1,000 pounds heavier generates a 40-50% increase in fatality risk." [8]

Incompatibility also results from vehicle design. SUVs and pickup trucks often ride higher than cars, and their structural stiffness can be mismatched with smaller vehicles. [9] [10] The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) studies the "aggressiveness" of vehicles, defined as the average injury risk a vehicle imposes on occupants of other vehicles. A 2003 NHTSA study found that, compared to cars, minivans were 1.16 times as aggressive, pickups were 1.39 times more aggressive, and SUVs were 1.71 times more aggressive. When accounting for weight, light trucks (including SUVs) were estimated to be 3.3 times more aggressive than cars in head-on crashes. [11]

References

  1. ↑ White, Michelle J. (2004). "The "Arms Race" on American Roads: The Effect of Sport Utility Vehicles and Pickup Trucks on Traffic Safety" . The Journal of Law and Economics. 47 (2): 333–355. doi:10.1086/422979. ISSN   0022-2186. S2CID   10175854.
  2. ↑ "Heavy cars and SUVs: The external costs of the vehicle-weight "arms race"". The Journalist's Resource. 2013-11-12.
  3. ↑ Grabar, Henry (2018-11-30). "The SUV Arms Race". Slate. ISSN   1091-2339.
  4. ↑ "Americans' love affair with big cars is killing them". The Economist. 2024. ISSN   0013-0613.
  5. ↑ "SUVs protect drivers, but make everyone else less safe. How do we change that?". CBC. 2022.
  6. ↑ "Driver safety 'arms race' fuelling boom in gas-guzzling SUVs, says journalist". CBC. 2019.
  7. ↑ Tay, Richard (2002). "The Prisoner's Dilemma and Vehicle Safety: Some Policy Implications". Journal of Transport Economics and Policy. 36 (3): 491–495. ISSN   0022-5258. JSTOR   20053916.
  8. ↑ Michael Anderson; Maximilian Auffhammer (January 4, 2012). "POUNDS THAT KILL: THE EXTERNAL COSTS OF VEHICLE WEIGHT" (PDF). National Bureau of Economic Research. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2025-06-05. Retrieved September 25, 2012.
  9. ↑ VERMA Mukul K.; LANGE Robert C.; LAVELLE Joseph P. (2003). "Relationship of crash test procedures to vehicle compatibility". Society of Automotive Engineers, New York, NY. Archived from the original on 2016-03-04. Retrieved September 25, 2012.
  10. ↑ "You have unmet needs: the psychology behind Australia's love affair with big cars". The Guardian. 2025-03-15. Archived from the original on 2025-08-25. Retrieved 2025-12-15.
  11. ↑ "National Highway Traffic Safety Administration report on vehicle compatibility" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on 2009-09-20. Retrieved 2005-07-07.


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