Expert Political Judgment

Last updated
First edition
(publ. Princeton University Press) Expert Political Judgment.jpg
First edition
(publ. Princeton University Press)

Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? is a 2005 book by Philip E. Tetlock. The book mentions how experts are often no better at making predictions than most other people, and how when they are wrong, they are rarely held accountable. [1]

Related Research Articles

Expert Person with broad and profound competence in a particular field

An expert is somebody who has a broad and deep competence in terms of knowledge, skill and experience through practice and education in a particular field. Informally, an expert is someone widely recognized as a reliable source of technique or skill whose faculty for judging or deciding rightly, justly, or wisely is accorded authority and status by peers or the public in a specific well-distinguished domain. An expert, more generally, is a person with extensive knowledge or ability based on research, experience, or occupation and in a particular area of study. Experts are called in for advice on their respective subject, but they do not always agree on the particulars of a field of study. An expert can be believed, by virtue of credentials, training, education, profession, publication or experience, to have special knowledge of a subject beyond that of the average person, sufficient that others may officially rely upon the individual's opinion on that topic. Historically, an expert was referred to as a sage (Sophos). The individual was usually a profound thinker distinguished for wisdom and sound judgment.

The expression junk science is used to describe scientific data, research, or analysis considered by the person using the phrase to be spurious or fraudulent. The concept is often invoked in political and legal contexts where facts and scientific results have a great amount of weight in making a determination. It usually conveys a pejorative connotation that the research has been untowardly driven by political, ideological, financial, or otherwise unscientific motives.

A how-to is an informal and often short video or text describing how to accomplish a specific task. A how-to is usually meant to help non-experts and consequently may leave out details that are important only to experts. Because of this, a how-to may be greatly simplified compared to a usual discussion of the subject.

Teabagging Sexual act

Teabagging is a slang term for the sexual act of a man placing his scrotum in the mouth of his sexual partner for pleasure, or onto the face or head of another person, sometimes as a comedic device.

Super/System, one of the first books about poker strategy, was written and published in 1979 by Doyle Brunson, a professional poker player and multiple winner at the World Series of Poker.

<i>The Wisdom of Crowds</i> 2004 book by James Surowiecki

The Wisdom of Crowds: Why the Many Are Smarter Than the Few and How Collective Wisdom Shapes Business, Economies, Societies and Nations, published in 2004, is a book written by James Surowiecki about the aggregation of information in groups, resulting in decisions that, he argues, are often better than could have been made by any single member of the group. The book presents numerous case studies and anecdotes to illustrate its argument, and touches on several fields, primarily economics and psychology.

A subject-matter expert (SME) is a person who is an authority in a particular area or topic.

Practice is the act of rehearsing a behaviour over and over, or engaging in an activity again and again, for the purpose of improving or mastering it, as in the phrase 'practice makes perfect'. It is important to note that practise is a verb and should not be confused with the noun practice. Sports teams practise to prepare for actual games. Playing a musical instrument well takes much practice. It is a method of learning and of acquiring experience. The word derives from the Greek "πρακτική" (praktike), feminine of "πρακτικός" (praktikos), "fit for or concerned with action, practical", and that from the verb "πράσσω" (prasso), "to achieve, bring about, effect, accomplish". In English, practice is the noun and practise is the verb, but in American-English it is now common for practice to be used both as a noun and a verb.

Mark Oldman American businessman

Mark Stanford Oldman is an American entrepreneur, wine expert, and author of several books on wine. He has been described as "one of the wine world's great populizers" and "one of the wine world's great showmen." He regularly appears at food and wine festivals as well as corporations and institutions, and teaches a course on entrepreneurship for Stanford University.

<i>Dungeons & Dragons Basic Set</i> Boxed set for tabletop role-playing game Dungeons & Dragons

The Dungeons & Dragons Basic Set is a set of rulebooks for the Dungeons & Dragons (D&D) fantasy role-playing game. First published in 1977, it saw a handful of revisions and reprintings. The first edition was written by J. Eric Holmes based on Gary Gygax and Dave Arneson's original work. Later editions were edited by Tom Moldvay, Frank Mentzer, Troy Denning, and Doug Stewart.

<i>Dungeons & Dragons Rules Cyclopedia</i> Rule book for tabletop role-playing game Dungeons & Dragons

The Dungeons & Dragons Rules Cyclopedia is a 1991 book published by TSR, Inc., as a continuation of the basic edition of the Dungeons & Dragons fantasy role-playing game, which ran concurrently with Advanced Dungeons & Dragons. Its product designation was TSR 1071.

The quick brown fox jumps over the lazy dog English-language pangram

"The quick brown fox jumps over the lazy dog" is an English-language pangram—a sentence that contains all of the letters of the English alphabet. Owing to its brevity and coherence, it has become widely known. The phrase is commonly used for touch-typing practice, testing typewriters and computer keyboards, displaying examples of fonts, and other applications involving text where the use of all letters in the alphabet is desired.

<i>The Last Dive</i> Non-fiction book by Bernie Chowdhury about a double wreck diving fatality

The Last Dive: A Father and Son's Fatal Descent into the Ocean's Depths (2000) is a non-fiction book written by diver Bernie Chowdhury and published by HarperCollins. It documents the fatal dive of Chris Rouse, Sr. and Chris "Chrissy" Rouse, Jr., a father-son team who perished off the New Jersey coast in 1992. The author is a dive expert and was a friend of the Rouses.

<i>How Wikipedia Works</i> 2008 how-to reference book

How Wikipedia Works is a 2009 book by Phoebe Ayers, Charles Matthews, and Ben Yates. It is a how-to reference for using and contributing to the Wikipedia encyclopedia, targeted at "students, professors, and everyday experts and fans". It offers specific sections for teachers, users, and researchers.

<i>Dungeons & Dragons Master Rules</i> Tabletop role-playing game supplement for Dungeons & Dragons

Dungeons & Dragons Master Rules is an expansion boxed set for the Dungeons & Dragons (D&D) fantasy role-playing game. It was first published in 1985 as an expansion to the Basic Set.

Michael Greger American physician, author, and vegan health activist

Michael Herschel Greger is an American physician, author, and professional speaker on public health issues, best known for his advocacy of a whole-food, plant-based diet, and his opposition to animal-derived food products.

Nick Morgan American speaking coach and author

Nick Morgan is an American speaking coach and author.

<i>The Plot to Hack America</i> book by Malcolm Nance

The Plot to Hack America: How Putin's Cyberspies and WikiLeaks Tried to Steal the 2016 Election is a non-fiction book by Malcolm Nance about what the author describes as Russian interference in the 2016 United States elections. It was published in paperback, audiobook, and e-book formats in 2016 by Skyhorse Publishing. A second edition was also published the same year, and a third edition in 2017. Nance researched Russian intelligence, working as a Russian interpreter and studying KGB history.

<i>Defeating ISIS</i> book by Malcolm Nance

Defeating ISIS: Who They Are, How They Fight, What They Believe is a non-fiction book about counterterrorism against ISIS. It was written by Malcolm Nance, a former cryptology analyst, with a foreword by Richard Engel. Its thesis is that ISIS is not part of Islam, instead, it functions as a separate destructive extremist group. He emphasizes the fact that the majority of those who have been harmed by ISIS are themselves Muslim. The book traces the history of the movement back to the history of Al-Qaeda in Iraq, and it also discusses ISIS's combat style and recruiting tactics. Nance offers a four-point plan to defeat ISIS, including airpower and special forces, Internet tactics, strengthening the Syrian military, and engaging Arab world states.

Darkness Unveiled is a book about Vampire: The Eternal Struggle published by Wizards of the Coast.

References

  1. "Everybody's an Expert - The New Yorker". Newyorker.com. Retrieved January 18, 2016.