The first-order reliability method, (FORM), is a semi-probabilistic reliability analysis method devised to evaluate the reliability of a system. The accuracy of the method can be improved by averaging over many samples, which is known as Line Sampling. [1] [2]
The method is also known as the Hasofer-Lind Reliability Index, developed by Professor Michael Hasofer and Professor Niels Lind in 1974. [3] [4] The index has been recognized as an important step towards the development of contemporary methods to effectively and accurately estimate structural safety. [5] [6]
The analysis method depends on a "Most Probable Point" on the limit state [7]
The following outline is provided as an overview of and topical guide to engineering:
Structural analysis is a branch of solid mechanics which uses simplified models for solids like bars, beams and shells for engineering decision making. Its main objective is to determine the effect of loads on the physical structures and their components. In contrast to theory of elasticity, the models used in structure analysis are often differential equations in one spatial variable. Structures subject to this type of analysis include all that must withstand loads, such as buildings, bridges, aircraft and ships. Structural analysis uses ideas from applied mechanics, materials science and applied mathematics to compute a structure's deformations, internal forces, stresses, support reactions, velocity, accelerations, and stability. The results of the analysis are used to verify a structure's fitness for use, often precluding physical tests. Structural analysis is thus a key part of the engineering design of structures.
Sensitivity analysis is the study of how the uncertainty in the output of a mathematical model or system can be divided and allocated to different sources of uncertainty in its inputs. A related practice is uncertainty analysis, which has a greater focus on uncertainty quantification and propagation of uncertainty; ideally, uncertainty and sensitivity analysis should be run in tandem.
In the field of human factors and ergonomics, human reliability is the probability that a human performs a task to a sufficient standard. Reliability of humans can be affected by many factors such as age, physical health, mental state, attitude, emotions, personal propensity for certain mistakes, and cognitive biases.
Reliability engineering is a sub-discipline of systems engineering that emphasizes the ability of equipment to function without failure. Reliability describes the ability of a system or component to function under stated conditions for a specified period. Reliability is closely related to availability, which is typically described as the ability of a component or system to function at a specified moment or interval of time.
The Life Quality Index (LQI) is a calibrated compound social indicator of human welfare that reflects the expected length of life in good health and enhancement of the quality of life through access to income. The Life Quality Index combines two primary social indicators: the expectancy of healthy life at birth, E, and the real gross domestic product per person, G, corrected for purchasing power parity as appropriate. Both are widely available and accurate statistics.
Probabilistic design is a discipline within engineering design. It deals primarily with the consideration and minimization of the effects of random variability upon the performance of an engineering system during the design phase. Typically, these effects studied and optimized are related to quality and reliability. It differs from the classical approach to design by assuming a small probability of failure instead of using the safety factor. Probabilistic design is used in a variety of different applications to assess the likelihood of failure. Disciplines which extensively use probabilistic design principles include product design, quality control, systems engineering, machine design, civil engineering and manufacturing.
Carlos A. Felippa is a professor of Aerospace Engineering Sciences at the University of Colorado. His research at Colorado concerns aerospace structures and structural analysis, with special interests in coupled field problems: elastoacoustics, aeroelasticity, control-structure interaction, thermomechanics and electrothermomechanics.
Henrik Overgaard Madsen is a businessperson, engineer, Member of the Board of Aker Solutions and was chief executive officer of DNV GL between 2006 and 2015.
Junuthula N. Reddy is a Distinguished Professor, Regent's Professor, and inaugural holder of the Oscar S. Wyatt Endowed Chair in Mechanical Engineering at Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas, USA.[1] He is an authoritative figure in the broad area of mechanics and one of the researchers responsible for the development of the Finite Element Method (FEM). He has made significant seminal contributions in the areas of finite element method, plate theory, solid mechanics, variational methods, mechanics of composites, functionally graded materials, fracture mechanics, plasticity, biomechanics, classical and non-Newtonian fluid mechanics, and applied functional analysis. Reddy has over 620 journal papers and 20 books and has given numerous national and international talks. He served as a member of the International Advisory Committee at ICTACEM, in 2001 and keynote addressing in 2014.[2][3]
A probability box is a characterization of uncertain numbers consisting of both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties that is often used in risk analysis or quantitative uncertainty modeling where numerical calculations must be performed. Probability bounds analysis is used to make arithmetic and logical calculations with p-boxes.
Probability bounds analysis (PBA) is a collection of methods of uncertainty propagation for making qualitative and quantitative calculations in the face of uncertainties of various kinds. It is used to project partial information about random variables and other quantities through mathematical expressions. For instance, it computes sure bounds on the distribution of a sum, product, or more complex function, given only sure bounds on the distributions of the inputs. Such bounds are called probability boxes, and constrain cumulative probability distributions.
P-boxes and probability bounds analysis have been used in many applications spanning many disciplines in engineering and environmental science, including:
Subset simulation is a method used in reliability engineering to compute small failure probabilities encountered in engineering systems. The basic idea is to express a small failure probability as a product of larger conditional probabilities by introducing intermediate failure events. This conceptually converts the original rare-event problem into a series of frequent-event problems that are easier to solve. In the actual implementation, samples conditional on intermediate failure events are adaptively generated to gradually populate from the frequent to rare event region. These 'conditional samples' provide information for estimating the complementary cumulative distribution function (CCDF) of the quantity of interest, covering the high as well as the low probability regions. They can also be used for investigating the cause and consequence of failure events. The generation of conditional samples is not trivial but can be performed efficiently using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC).
Roy Billinton is a Canadian scholar and a Distinguished Emeritus Professor at the University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada. In 2008, Billinton won the IEEE Canada Electric Power Medal for his research and application of reliability concepts in electric power system. In 2007, Billinton was elected a Foreign Associate of the United States National Academy of Engineering for "contributions to teaching, research and application of reliability engineering in electric power generation, transmission, and distribution systems."
Line sampling is a method used in reliability engineering to compute small failure probabilities encountered in engineering systems. The method is particularly suitable for high-dimensional reliability problems, in which the performance function exhibits moderate non-linearity with respect to the uncertain parameters The method is suitable for analyzing black box systems, and unlike the importance sampling method of variance reduction, does not require detailed knowledge of the system.
Isaac Elishakoff is a Distinguished Research Professor in the Ocean and Mechanical Engineering Department in the Florida Atlantic University, Boca Raton, Florida. He is a figure in the area of mechanics. He has made several contributions in the areas of random vibrations, solid mechanics of composite material, semi-inverse problems of vibrations and stability, functionally graded material structures, and nanotechnology.
Abraham Michael Hasofer (1927-2010) was an Australian statistician. Professor Hasofer held the position of the Chair of Statistics within the Mathematics Department in the University of New South Wales in Sydney from 1969 to 1991. He subsequently held a position at the La Trobe University in Melbourne. He authored a number of publications in the field of applied mathematics and civil engineering, including his formulation of the Hasofer-Lind Reliability Index.
Christian Soize is a French engineer and applied mathematician known for his contributions in computational mechanics and uncertainty quantification. He is Full Professor at the Laboratoire Modélisation et Simulation Multi Echelle at Gustave Eiffel University.
Eleni Chatzi is a Greek civil engineer, researcher, and an associate professor and Chair of Structural Mechanics and Monitoring at the Department of Civil, Environmental and Geomatic Engineering of the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich.