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Gerald Celente | |
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| Born | November 29, 1946 |
| Occupation | Trend forecaster |
Gerald Celente (born November 29, 1946) is an American trend forecaster, [1] [2] publisher of the Trends Journal, business consultant [3] and author who makes predictions about the global financial markets and other important events.
Celente was born in an Italian American family in The Bronx, New York City, New York. He had early political experience running a mayoral campaign in Yonkers, New York,[ when? ] and served as executive assistant to the secretary of the New York State Senate.[ when? ]
From 1973 to 1979, Celente traveled between the major US cities of Chicago, Illinois and the United states capital, Washington, D.C. as a government affairs specialist. [4] In 1980, Celente founded The Trends Research Institute (at first called the Socio-Economic Research Institute of America), now located in Kingston, New York, publisher of the Trends Journal which forecasts and analyzes business, socioeconomic, political, and other trends. [5]
Hugo Lindgren and ABC News have labelled Celente's predictions "pessimism porn" for their doom and the alleged eschatological thrill some people receive from imagining his predictions of the collapse of civil society in the wake of a global economic crisis. [6] [7]
His forecasts since 1993 have included predictions about terrorism, economic collapses and war. More recent forecasts involve fascism in the United States, food riots and tax revolts. [3] [8] [9] [10] Celente has long predicted global anti-Americanism, a failing economy and immigration woes in the U.S.
In 2009 Celente predicted turmoil which he described as "Obamageddon", and he was a popular guest on conservative cable-TV shows such as Fox News Sunday and Glenn Beck's television program.[ citation needed ]
In April 2009 Celente wrote, "Wall Street controls our financial lives; the media manipulates our minds. These systems cannot be changed from within. There is no alternative. Without a revolution, these institutions will bankrupt the country, keep fighting failed wars, start new ones, and hold us in perpetual intellectual subjugation." [11]
Celente has said, "smaller communities, the smaller groups, the smaller states, the more self-sustaining communities, will 'weather the crisis in style' as big cities and hypertrophic suburbias descend into misery and conflict", and forecasts "a downsizing of America". [9]
Over the past decade Celente has become one of the loudest voices calling for the end of the State of Israel and rebukes the legitimacy of Israel as the home state of the Jews via his Youtube channel and occasional public events. Celente no longer appears on most mainstream news and media venues upon which he used to regularly be seen; many attributing this to what is often labeled antisemitic rants and the views which he espouses. Celente resides in Kingston, NY and is unmarried with no children. [12]
In economics, Kondratiev waves are hypothesized cycle-like phenomena in the modern world economy. The phenomenon is closely connected with the technology life cycle.
Pessimism is a mental attitude in which an undesirable outcome is anticipated from a given situation. Pessimists tend to focus on the negatives of life in general. A common question asked to test for pessimism is "Is the glass half empty or half full?"; in this situation, a pessimist is said to see the glass as half empty, or in extreme cases completely empty, while an optimist is said to see the glass as half full. Throughout history, the pessimistic disposition has had effects on all major areas of thinking.
The Limits to Growth (LTG) is a 1972 report that discussed the possibility of exponential economic and population growth with finite supply of resources, studied by computer simulation. The study used the World3 computer model to simulate the consequence of interactions between the Earth and human systems. The model was based on the work of Jay Forrester of MIT, as described in his book World Dynamics.
Business cycles are intervals of expansion followed by recession in economic activity. A recession is sometimes technically defined as 2 quarters of negative GDP growth, but definitions vary; for example, in the United States, a recession is defined as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the market, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales." The changes in economic activity that characterize business cycles have implications for the welfare of the broad population as well as for private institutions. Typically business cycles are measured by examining trends in a broad economic indicator such as Real Gross Domestic Production.
A prediction, or forecast, is a statement about a future event or data. They are often, but not always, based upon experience or knowledge. There is no universal agreement about the exact difference from "estimation"; different authors and disciplines ascribe different connotations.
Forecasting is the process of making predictions based on past and present data. Later these can be compared (resolved) against what happens. For example, a company might estimate their revenue in the next year, then compare it against the actual results creating a variance actual analysis. Prediction is a similar but more general term. Forecasting might refer to specific formal statistical methods employing time series, cross-sectional or longitudinal data, or alternatively to less formal judgmental methods or the process of prediction and resolution itself. Usage can vary between areas of application: for example, in hydrology the terms "forecast" and "forecasting" are sometimes reserved for estimates of values at certain specific future times, while the term "prediction" is used for more general estimates, such as the number of times floods will occur over a long period.
Nouriel Roubini is a Turkish-born Iranian-American economic consultant, economist, and writer. He is a Professor Emeritus since 2021 at the Stern School of Business of New York University.
Economic forecasting is the process of making predictions about the economy. Forecasts can be carried out at a high level of aggregation—for example for GDP, inflation, unemployment or the fiscal deficit—or at a more disaggregated level, for specific sectors of the economy or even specific firms. Economic forecasting is a measure to find out the future prosperity of a pattern of investment and is the key activity in economic analysis. Many institutions engage in economic forecasting: national governments, banks and central banks, consultants and private sector entities such as think-tanks, companies and international organizations such as the International Monetary Fund, World Bank and the OECD. A broad range of forecasts are collected and compiled by "Consensus Economics". Some forecasts are produced annually, but many are updated more frequently.
Futures studies, futures research, futurism, or futurology is the systematic, interdisciplinary and holistic study of social/technological advancement, and other environmental trends; often for the purpose of exploring how people will live and work in the future. Predictive techniques, such as forecasting, can be applied, but contemporary futures studies scholars emphasize the importance of systematically exploring alternatives. In general, it can be considered as a branch of the social sciences and an extension to the field of history. Futures studies seeks to understand what is likely to continue and what could plausibly change. Part of the discipline thus seeks a systematic and pattern-based understanding of past and present, and to explore the possibility of future events and trends.
Doomer and, by extension, doomerism are terms which arose primarily on the Internet to describe people who are extremely pessimistic or fatalistic about global problems such as overpopulation, peak oil, climate change, pollution, nuclear weapons, and runaway artificial intelligence. Some doomers assert that there is a possibility these problems will bring about human extinction.
Google Trends is a website by Google that analyzes the popularity of top search queries in Google Search across various regions and languages. The website uses graphs to compare the search volume of different queries over time.
Marc Faber is a Swiss investor based in Thailand. He is the publisher of the Gloom Boom & Doom Report newsletter, and the director of Marc Faber Ltd, which acts as an investment advisor and fund manager. Faber also serves as director, advisor, and shareholder of a number of investment funds that focus on emerging and frontier markets, including Asia Frontier Capital Ltd.'s AFC Asia Frontier Fund. Faber is credited for advising his clients to get out of the stock market before the October 1987 crash, and with in 2005-06 writing extensively about an impending crash of home prices, prior to the 2007–2008 financial crisis. In 2017 he was criticized for racist remarks.
Peter David Schiff is an American stockbroker, financial commentator, and radio personality. He co-founded Echelon Wealth Partners in Canada, and is involved in other financial services companies including Euro Pacific Asset Management, an independent investment advisor, and Schiff Gold. He predicted the 2008 financial crisis.
Stock market prediction is the act of trying to determine the future value of a company stock or other financial instrument traded on an exchange. The successful prediction of a stock's future price could yield significant profit. The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that stock prices reflect all currently available information and any price changes that are not based on newly revealed information thus are inherently unpredictable. Others disagree and those with this viewpoint possess myriad methods and technologies which purportedly allow them to gain future price information.
Peak oil is the point at which oil production, sometimes including unconventional oil sources, hits its maximum. Predicting the timing of peak oil involves estimation of future production from existing oil fields as well as future discoveries. The most influential production model is Hubbert peak theory, first proposed in the 1950s. The effect of peak oil on the world economy remains controversial.
Hugo Lindgren is an American magazine and newspaper editor. He was the editor of The New York Times Magazine from 2010 to 2013 and the acting editor of The Hollywood Reporter. He runs the production company Page 1 Productions with the filmmaker Mark Boal. In 2009 he coined the neologism "pessimism porn" to describe the alleged eschatological and survivalist thrill some people derive from reading about and preparing for the collapse of civil society from a global economic crisis.
Pessimism porn is a neologism coined in 2009 during the Great Recession to describe the alleged eschatological and survivalist thrill some people derive from predicting, reading and fantasizing about the collapse of civil society through the destruction of the world's economic system.
The Coming Collapse of China is a book by Gordon G. Chang, published in 2001, in which he argued that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) was the root cause of many of China's problems and would cause the country's collapse by 2011. When 2011 was almost over, Chang admitted that his prediction was wrong but said it was off by only a year, asserting in Foreign Policy that the CCP would fall in 2012. Consequently he made the magazine's "10 worst predictions of the year" twice.
Robert C. Beckman was an American investment adviser, commentator, and author, who achieved fame in the United Kingdom in the 1980s through his media appearances and his books The Downwave (1983) and Into the Upwave (1988). As a young man he made, and quickly lost, a fortune on the stock market. The experience permanently disillusioned him with equity investment and he became known for his forecasts of doom for the stock market and British house prices which were largely proved wrong.
The Coming War with Japan is a book by geopolitical analyst George Friedman and Meredith LeBard, published in 1991, in which they argue that another conflict between the United States and Japan was inevitable as the latter was becoming an economic threat to the former. The Japanese title of the book translates as The Coming War with Japan: A 'Second Pacific War' is inevitable.
{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: bot: original URL status unknown (link), money.cnn.com, 15 December 1997, retrieved 3 August 2009| International | |
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