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A hidden Markov model (HMM) is a Markov model in which the observations are dependent on a latent Markov process. An HMM requires that there be an observable process whose outcomes depend on the outcomes of in a known way. Since cannot be observed directly, the goal is to learn about state of by observing . By definition of being a Markov model, an HMM has an additional requirement that the outcome of at time must be "influenced" exclusively by the outcome of at and that the outcomes of and at must be conditionally independent of at given at time . Estimation of the parameters in an HMM can be performed using maximum likelihood estimation. For linear chain HMMs, the Baum–Welch algorithm can be used to estimate parameters.
The critical path method (CPM), or critical path analysis (CPA), is an algorithm for scheduling a set of project activities. A critical path is determined by identifying the longest stretch of dependent activities and measuring the time required to complete them from start to finish. It is commonly used in conjunction with the program evaluation and review technique (PERT).
A Bayesian network is a probabilistic graphical model that represents a set of variables and their conditional dependencies via a directed acyclic graph (DAG). While it is one of several forms of causal notation, causal networks are special cases of Bayesian networks. Bayesian networks are ideal for taking an event that occurred and predicting the likelihood that any one of several possible known causes was the contributing factor. For example, a Bayesian network could represent the probabilistic relationships between diseases and symptoms. Given symptoms, the network can be used to compute the probabilities of the presence of various diseases.
Project management software are computer programs that help plan, organize, and manage resources.
The program evaluation and review technique (PERT) is a statistical tool used in project management, which was designed to analyze and represent the tasks involved in completing a given project.
A graphical model or probabilistic graphical model (PGM) or structured probabilistic model is a probabilistic model for which a graph expresses the conditional dependence structure between random variables. They are commonly used in probability theory, statistics—particularly Bayesian statistics—and machine learning.
A project network diagram is a graph that displays the order in which a project’s activities are to be completed. Derived from the work breakdown structure, the terminal elements of a project are organized sequentially based on the relationship among them. It is typically drawn from left to right to reflect project chronology.
An influence diagram (ID) is a compact graphical and mathematical representation of a decision situation. It is a generalization of a Bayesian network, in which not only probabilistic inference problems but also decision making problems can be modeled and solved.
MacProject was a project management and scheduling business application released along with the first Apple Macintosh systems in 1984. MacProject was one of the first major business tools for the Macintosh which enabled users to calculate the "critical path" to completion and estimate costs in terms of money and time. If a project deadline was missed or if available resources changed, MacProject recalculated everything automatically.
IP traceback is any method for reliably determining the origin of a packet on the Internet. The IP protocol does not provide for the authentication of the source IP address of an IP packet, enabling the source address to be falsified in a strategy called IP address spoofing, and creating potential internet security and stability problems.
The precedence diagram method (PDM) is a tool for scheduling activities in a project plan. It is a method of constructing a project schedule network diagram that uses boxes, referred to as nodes, to represent activities and connects them with arrows that show the dependencies. It is also called the activity-on-node (AON) method.
Business process discovery (BPD) related to business process management and process mining is a set of techniques that manually or automatically construct a representation of an organisations' current business processes and their major process variations. These techniques use data recorded in the existing organisational methods of work, documentations, and technology systems that run business processes within an organisation. The type of data required for process discovery is called an event log. Any record of data that contains the case id, activity name, and timestamp. Such a record qualifies for an event log and can be used to discover the underlying process model. The event log can contain additional information related to the process, such as the resources executing the activity, the type or nature of the events, or any other relevant details. Process discovery aims to obtain a process model that describes the event log as closely as possible. The process model acts as a graphical representation of the process. The event logs used for discovery could contain noise, irregular information, and inconsistent/incorrect timestamps. Process discovery is challenging due to such noisy event logs and because the event log contains only a part of the actual process hidden behind the system. The discovery algorithms should solely depend on a small percentage of data provided by the event logs to develop the closest possible model to the actual behaviour.
The Technique for human error-rate prediction (THERP) is a technique that is used in the field of Human Reliability Assessment (HRA) to evaluate the probability of human error occurring throughout the completion of a task. From such an analysis, some corrective measures could be taken to reduce the likelihood of errors occurring within a system. The overall goal of THERP is to apply and document probabilistic methodological analyses to increase safety during a given process. THERP is used in fields such as error identification, error quantification and error reduction.
Influence Diagrams Approach (IDA) is a technique used in the field of Human reliability Assessment (HRA), for the purposes of evaluating the probability of a human error occurring throughout the completion of a specific task. From such analyses measures can then be taken to reduce the likelihood of errors occurring within a system and therefore lead to an improvement in the overall levels of safety. There exist three primary reasons for conducting an HRA; error identification, error quantification and error reduction. As there exist a number of techniques used for such purposes, they can be split into one of two classifications; first generation techniques and second generation techniques. First generation techniques work on the basis of the simple dichotomy of ‘fits/doesn’t fit’ in the matching of the error situation in context with related error identification and quantification and second generation techniques are more theory based in their assessment and quantification of errors. ‘HRA techniques have been utilised in a range of industries including healthcare, engineering, nuclear, transportation and business sector; each technique has varying uses within different disciplines.
Arrow diagramming method (ADM) is a network diagramming technique in which activities are represented by arrows. ADM is also known as the activity-on-arrow (AOA) method.
The Graphical Path Method (GPM) is a mathematically based algorithm used in project management for planning, scheduling and resource control. GPM represents logical relationships of dated objects – such as activities, milestones, and benchmarks – in a time-scaled network diagram.
Event tree analysis (ETA) is a forward, top-down, logical modeling technique for both success and failure that explores responses through a single initiating event and lays a path for assessing probabilities of the outcomes and overall system analysis. This analysis technique is used to analyze the effects of functioning or failed systems given that an event has occurred.
The Improved Performance Research Integration Tool (IMPRINT) is a suite of software tools developed by the Human Research and Engineering Directorate (HRED) of the United States Army Research Laboratory. IMPRINT is designed to analyze the interactions between soldiers, systems, and missions, aiding in the evaluation of soldier performance across various scenarios. This evaluation supports the optimization of military systems and training programs.
Willard R. Fazar was an American economist, Head of the Program Evaluation Branch at Special Projects Office, U.S. Navy, and author. He is known as one of co-inventors, and key-developers of PERT."
References
- ↑ Pritsker, A. A. B. (April 1966). "GERT: Graphical Evaluation and Review Technique" (PDF). RM-4973-NASA. National Aeronautics and Space Administration under Contract No. NASr-21. Retrieved 2006-12-05.
- ↑ Modeling and Analysis Using Q-GERT Networks A. Alan B. Pritsker, 2nd Edition, Wiley, 1979 ISBN 0-470-26648-1
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