HELIOS Hybrid Evaluation of Lifecycle and Impact of Outstanding Science

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The HELIOS Model (Hybrid Evaluation of Lifecycle and Impact of Outstanding Science) is a comprehensive framework designed to evaluate the maturity of emerging technologies by integrating multiple key indicators. The model combines data from R&D investment, scientific publications, patents, adoption levels, and regulatory frameworks to position each technology within its lifecycle phase.

Contents

Overview

HELIOS [1] provides a composite index that simultaneously reflects both the state of scientific development (research impact) and technological advancement (diffusion and investment) of a technology. This hybrid approach draws inspiration from established frameworks such as NASA's Technology readiness level (TRL) and Rogers' adoption categories, which link technological evolution with user acceptance. [2]

In the HELIOS framework, each variable indicates a complementary aspect of maturity: sustained growth in investment and publications typically precedes phases of technological expansion, while an elaborate regulatory environment points to a more consolidated technology.

Mathematical formulation

The HELIOS index is calculated as a weighted average of five normalized variables (I, P, Pt, A, R) representing investment, publications, patents, adoption, and regulation, each scaled to the range [0,1]:

Where the weights sum to 1. A typical weight distribution might be:

The resulting HELIOS value ranges from 0 (very early-stage technology) to 1 (high maturity).

Scoring criteria and normalization

Each key variable is measured using standardized criteria and scales:

Investment (R&D)

Annual investment amount (public + private) in USD, normalized by dividing by the highest recorded level or sectoral target. Typical scoring ranges:

Scientific publications

Number of academic articles in the related discipline per year, normalized against historical maximum. Example ranges:

Patents

Number of patent families published annually in the field. Similar normalization to publications: [3]

Adoption

Degree of technology implementation or usage, estimated as market penetration following the diffusion of innovations model:

Regulation

Maturity level of legal frameworks and standards, qualitatively assessed:

Visual representation

The current state of the five variables can be represented graphically using a radar chart, where each dimension (investment, publications, patents, adoption, regulation) is measured from 0 to 1. The resulting surface reflects the technology maturity profile. Additionally, the typical Sigmoid function (S-Curve) illustrates the overall maturity trajectory: its maximum slope indicates the inflection point (rapid growth phase) and the final saturation level marks complete maturity.

Variables and Scoring

VariableMetricNormalizationTypical Weight
Investment (I)Annual R&D spend (USD)I/Imax0.25
Publications (P)Articles per yearP/Pmax0.25
Patents (Pt)Patent families per yearPt/Ptmax0.20
Adoption (A)% market penetrationtiered scale0.25
Regulation (R)Quality of legal standardstiered scale0.05

Practical example: Quantum computing

To illustrate HELIOS, consider quantum computing with recent data:

Using suggested weights:

A value of ~0.65 indicates an early growth stage, consistent with rapid expansion in patents and investment but limited adoption. This suggests quantum computing is still far from saturation, with the S-curve's increasing slope indicating that the mass adoption tipping point may be approaching.

Applications and interpretation

HELIOS values near 0.5–0.7 correspond to technologies in the development/early adoption phase, while indices close to 1 indicate maturity or stagnation. The model enables:

See also

References

  1. Disruptive Horizons: The 10 technologies that will redefine the next decade. 2025. ISBN   9798294856489.
  2. "User needs over time: the market and technology maturity model (MTMM)". Journal of Innovation and Entrepreneurship. 2023.
  3. "Assessing the life cycle of technologies". European Patent Office. 2023.
  4. "The Rise of Quantum Computing". McKinsey & Company. 2025.
  5. "Certainty in the trajectory of patents for quantum computing". Appleyard Lees. 2024.
  6. "Department of Commerce Releases Export Controls on Quantum Technologies". National Quantum Initiative. 2024.