Health forecasting

Last updated

Health forecasting is a new health care discipline initiated by the Met Office when Dr William Bird, a GP, became its first clinical director in 2002. It is currently the subject of an innovative project run jointly by the Met Office and the National Health Service (NHS) in the United Kingdom.

The natural environment affects human health. There are many cases in which the weather has a direct or indirect effect on the health of an individual. These include:

Health forecasts help professionals and patients know when and where there is a risk of illness. Through this understanding, preventative action can be taken and health care capacity (i.e. hospitals and doctors) managed to reduce illness and death.

The main strand of the health forecasting project is forecasting the risk of exacerbation for people with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). COPD health forecasts are used to drive the provision of anticipatory care to people with COPD, helping them achieve their potential for independence and wellbeing. The service is being run in around 30 primary care trusts with over 20,000 patient registered to receive alerts. In many areas alerts are provided by an automated interactive telephone. Evidence from several evaluations of the service has shown around a 20% reduction in COPD related emergency admissions for practices using the service.

On 26 February 2007, the project won in the Innovative Service Award category at the Health and Social Care Awards 2006. The Health and Social Care Awards are run annually in partnership between the Department of Health and the NHS Institute for Innovation and Improvement and are the most important opportunity within the NHS and social care to identify, recognise and reward excellence in the provision of care at the front line. The specific award recognises an innovative, new or improved service that is benefiting the delivery of health care for patients, users and carers.

In 2011 the Shanghai Meteorological Service and Shanghai Municipal Public Health Bureau jointly launched a health meteorological service that includes health forecasting for conditions such as colds, asthma, COPD and a heat health warning service. This will be developed based on a considerable amount of research to provide a service to improve healthcare in Shanghai.

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Emergency department</span> Medical treatment facility specializing in emergency medicine

An emergency department (ED), also known as an accident and emergency department (A&E), emergency room (ER), emergency ward (EW) or casualty department, is a medical treatment facility specializing in emergency medicine, the acute care of patients who present without prior appointment; either by their own means or by that of an ambulance. The emergency department is usually found in a hospital or other primary care center.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Primary care</span> Day-to-day health care given by a health care provider

Primary care is the day-to-day healthcare given by a health care provider. Typically this provider acts as the first contact and principal point of continuing care for patients within a healthcare system, and coordinates other specialist care that the patient may need. Patients commonly receive primary care from professionals such as a primary care physician, a physician assistant, a physical therapist, or a nurse practitioner. In some localities, such a professional may be a registered nurse, a pharmacist, a clinical officer, or an Ayurvedic or other traditional medicine professional. Depending on the nature of the health condition, patients may then be referred for secondary or tertiary care.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Mental health</span> Level of psychological well-being

Mental health encompasses emotional, psychological, and social well-being, influencing cognition, perception, and behavior. According to World Health Organization (WHO), it is a "state of well-being in which the individual realizes his or her abilities, can cope with the normal stresses of life, can work productively and fruitfully, and can contribute to his or her community". It likewise determines how an individual handles stress, interpersonal relationships, and decision-making. Mental health includes subjective well-being, perceived self-efficacy, autonomy, competence, intergenerational dependence, and self-actualization of one's intellectual and emotional potential, among others. From the perspectives of positive psychology or holism, mental health may include an individual's ability to enjoy life and to create a balance between life activities and efforts to achieve psychological resilience. Cultural differences, subjective assessments, and competing professional theories all affect how one defines "mental health". Some early signs related to mental health difficulties are sleep irritation, lack of energy, lack of appetite, and thinking of harming oneself or others.It also inculde's self-isolating and frequently zoning out,

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Self-care</span> Taking care of ones own health

Self-care has been defined as the process of establishing behaviors to ensure holistic well-being of oneself, to promote health, and actively manage illness when it occurs. Individuals engage in some form of self-care daily with food choices, exercise, sleep, reading and dental care. Self-care is not only a solo activity as the community—a group that supports the person performing self-care—overall plays a large role in access to, implementation of, and success of self-care activities.

General medical services (GMS) is the range of healthcare that is provided by general practitioners as part of the National Health Service in the United Kingdom. The NHS specifies what GPs, as independent contractors, are expected to do and provides funding for this work through arrangements known as the General Medical Services Contract. Today, the GMS contract is a UK-wide arrangement with minor differences negotiated by each of the four UK health departments. In 2013 60% of practices had a GMS contract as their principle contract. The contract has sub-sections and not all are compulsory. The other forms of contract are the Personal Medical Services or Alternative Provider Medical Services contracts. They are designed to encourage practices to offer services over and above the standard contract. Alternative Provider Medical Services contracts, unlike the other contracts, can be awarded to anyone, not just GPs, don't specify standard essential services, and are time limited. A new contract is issued each year.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">NHS Scotland</span> Publicly-funded healthcare system in Scotland

NHS Scotland, sometimes styled NHSScotland, is the publicly funded healthcare system in Scotland and one of the four systems that make up the National Health Service in the United Kingdom. It operates 14 territorial NHS boards across Scotland, supported by seven special non-geographic health boards, and Public Health Scotland.

The Quality and Outcomes Framework (QOF) is a system for the performance management and payment of general practitioners (GPs) in the National Health Service (NHS) in England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. It was introduced as part of a new general medical services (GMS) contract in April 2004, replacing various other fee arrangements.

Chronic care refers to medical care which addresses pre-existing or long-term illness, as opposed to acute care which is concerned with short term or severe illness of brief duration. Chronic medical conditions include asthma, diabetes, emphysema, chronic bronchitis, congestive heart disease, cirrhosis of the liver, hypertension and depression. Without effective treatment chronic conditions may lead to disability.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Emergency medical services in the United Kingdom</span>

Emergency medical services in the United Kingdom provide emergency care to people with acute illness or injury and are predominantly provided free at the point of use by the four National Health Services (NHS) of England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. Emergency care including ambulance and emergency department treatment is only free to UK residents and a charge may be made to those not entitled to free NHS care.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Healthcare in the United Kingdom</span> Overview of healthcare in the United Kingdom

Healthcare in the United Kingdom is a devolved matter, with England, Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales each having their own systems of publicly funded healthcare, funded by and accountable to separate governments and parliaments, together with smaller private sector and voluntary provision. As a result of each country having different policies and priorities, a variety of differences have developed between these systems since devolution.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Obstructive lung disease</span> Category of respiratory disease characterized by airway obstruction

Obstructive lung disease is a category of respiratory disease characterized by airway obstruction. Many obstructive diseases of the lung result from narrowing (obstruction) of the smaller bronchi and larger bronchioles, often because of excessive contraction of the smooth muscle itself. It is generally characterized by inflamed and easily collapsible airways, obstruction to airflow, problems exhaling, and frequent medical clinic visits and hospitalizations. Types of obstructive lung disease include; asthma, bronchiectasis, bronchitis and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Although COPD shares similar characteristics with all other obstructive lung diseases, such as the signs of coughing and wheezing, they are distinct conditions in terms of disease onset, frequency of symptoms, and reversibility of airway obstruction. Cystic fibrosis is also sometimes included in obstructive pulmonary disease.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">National Health Service (England)</span> Publicly-funded healthcare system in England

The National Health Service (NHS) is the publicly funded healthcare system in England, and one of the four National Health Service systems in the United Kingdom. It is the second largest single-payer healthcare system in the world after the Brazilian Sistema Único de Saúde. Primarily funded by the government from general taxation, and overseen by the Department of Health and Social Care, the NHS provides healthcare to all legal English residents and residents from other regions of the UK, with most services free at the point of use for most people. The NHS also conducts research through the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR).

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Pharmacy (shop)</span> Shop which provides pharmaceutical drugs

A pharmacy is a retail shop which provides pharmaceutical drugs, among other products. At the pharmacy, a pharmacist oversees the fulfillment of medical prescriptions and is available to counsel patients about prescription and over-the-counter drugs or about health problems and wellness issues. A typical pharmacy would be in the commercial area of a community.

Healthcare in England is mainly provided by the National Health Service (NHS), a public body that provides healthcare to all permanent residents in England, that is free at the point of use. The body is one of four forming the UK National Health Service as health is a devolved matter; there are differences with the provisions for healthcare elsewhere in the United Kingdom, and in England it is overseen by NHS England. Though the public system dominates healthcare provision in England, private health care and a wide variety of alternative and complementary treatments are available for those willing and able to pay.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">National Health Service</span> Publicly-funded healthcare systems in the United Kingdom

The National Health Service (NHS) is the conglomerate name for the publicly funded healthcare systems of the United Kingdom, comprising NHS England, NHS Scotland and NHS Wales. Health and Social Care in Northern Ireland was created separately and is often locally referred to as "the NHS". The original three systems were established in 1948 as part of major social reforms following the Second World War. The founding principles were that services should be comprehensive, universal and free at the point of delivery—a health service based on clinical need, not ability to pay. Each service provides a comprehensive range of health services, provided without charge for people ordinarily resident in the United Kingdom apart from dental treatment and optical care. In England, NHS patients have to pay prescription charges; some, such as those aged over 60, or those on certain state benefits, are exempt.

The Healthcare Quality Improvement Partnership (HQIP) was established in April 2008 to promote improvement in health services, by increasing the impact that clinical audit has on healthcare quality in England and Wales and, in some cases other devolved nations. It is led by a consortium of the Academy of Medical Royal Colleges, Royal College of Nursing and National Voices.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease</span> Lung disease involving long-term poor airflow

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a type of progressive lung disease characterized by long-term respiratory symptoms and airflow limitation. The main symptoms of COPD include shortness of breath and a cough, which may or may not produce mucus. COPD progressively worsens, with everyday activities such as walking or dressing becoming difficult. While COPD is incurable, it is preventable and treatable. The two most common types of COPD are emphysema and chronic bronchitis and have been the two classic COPD phenotypes. Emphysema is defined as enlarged airspaces (alveoli) whose walls have broken down resulting in permanent damage to the lung tissue. Chronic bronchitis is defined as a productive cough that is present for at least three months each year for two years. Both of these conditions can exist without airflow limitation when they are not classed as COPD. Emphysema is just one of the structural abnormalities that can limit airflow and can exist without airflow limitation in a significant number of people. Chronic bronchitis does not always result in airflow limitation but in young adults who smoke the risk of developing COPD is high. Many definitions of COPD in the past included emphysema and chronic bronchitis, but these have never been included in GOLD report definitions. Emphysema and chronic bronchitis remain the predominant phenotypes of COPD but there is often overlap between them and a number of other phenotypes have also been described. COPD and asthma may coexist and converge in some individuals. COPD is associated with low-grade systemic inflammation.

The Medical Technology Group (MTG) is a not for profit organisation in the United Kingdom comprising patient groups, research charities and medical device manufacturers. Its stated aim is to "work together to improve patient access to effective medical technologies". The Group launched in 2001.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Private healthcare in the United Kingdom</span>

Private healthcare in the UK, where universal state-funded healthcare is provided by the National Health Service, is a niche market.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">56 Dean Street</span> Sexual health clinic in London

56 Dean Street, based in Dean Street in London's Soho district, is a sexual health clinic. Part of the Chelsea and Westminster Hospital NHS Foundation Trust, it also has a second branch, Dean Street Express, at 34 Dean Street, which offers a fast-turnaround testing service. As of 2017, the clinic was the largest HIV clinic in Europe. In addition to its specialism in HIV infection and other sexually transmitted diseases, it also offers general sexual health care services, including contraception. The clinic also runs TransPlus - the UK’s first integrated NHS gender dysphoria, sexual health and HIV service.

References