Hot money

Last updated

In economics, hot money is the flow of funds (or capital) from one country to another in order to earn a short-term profit on interest rate differences and/or anticipated exchange rate shifts. These speculative capital flows are called "hot money" because they can move very quickly in and out of markets, potentially leading to market instability. [1]

Contents

Illustration of hot money flows

The following simple example illustrates the phenomenon of hot money: In the beginning of 2011, the national average rate of one year certificate of deposit in the United States is 0.95%. In contrast, China's benchmark one year deposit rate is 3%. The Chinese currency (renminbi) is seriously undervalued against the world's major trading currencies and therefore is likely to appreciate against the US dollar in the coming years. Given this situation, if an investor in the US deposits his or her money in a Chinese bank, the investor would get a higher return than if he or she deposits money in a US bank. This makes China a prime target for hot money inflows. This is just an example for illustration. In reality, hot money takes many different forms of investment.

The following description may help further illustrate this phenomenon: "One country or sector in the world economy experiences a financial crisis; capital flows out in a panic; investors seek a more attractive destination for their money. In the next destination, capital inflows create a boom that is accompanied by rising indebtedness, rising asset prices and booming consumption - for a time. But all too often, these capital inflows are followed by another crisis. Some commentators describe these patterns of capital flow as 'hot money' that flows from one sector or country to the next and leaves behind a trail of destruction." [2]

Types of hot money

As mentioned above, capital in the following form could be considered hot money:

The types of capital in the above categories share common characteristics: the investment horizon is short, and they can come in quickly and leave quickly.

Estimates of total value

There is no well-defined method for estimating the amount of hot money flowing into a country during a period of time, because hot money flows quickly and is poorly monitored. In addition, once an estimate is made, the amount of hot money may suddenly rise or fall, depending on the economic conditions driving the flow of funds. One common way of approximating the flow of hot money is to subtract a nation's trade surplus (or deficit) and its net flow of foreign direct investment (FDI) from the change in the nation's foreign reserves. [1]

Hot money (approx) = Change in foreign exchange reserves - Net exports - Net foreign direct investment

Sources and causes

Hot money usually originates from the capital-rich, developed countries that have lower GDP growth rate and lower interest rates compared to the GDP growth rate and interest rate of emerging market economies such as India, Brazil, China, Turkey, Malaysia etc. Although the specific causes of hot money flow are somewhat different from period to period, generally, the following could be considered as the causes of hot money flow: [3]

As described above, hot money can be in different forms. Hedge funds, other portfolio investment funds and international borrowing of domestic financial institutions are generally considered as the vehicles of hot money. In the 1997 East Asian Financial Crisis and in the 1998 Russian Financial Crisis, the hot money chiefly came from banks, not portfolio investors. [4] [5]

Impact

Capital flows can increase welfare by enabling households to smooth out their consumption over time and achieve a higher level of consumption. Capital flows can help developed countries achieve a better international diversification of their portfolios. [3]

However, large and sudden inflows of capital with a short-term investment horizon have negative macroeconomic effects, including rapid monetary expansion, inflationary pressures, real exchange rate appreciation and widening current account deficits. Especially, when capital flows in volume into small and shallow local financial markets, the exchange rate tends to appreciate, asset prices rally and local commodity prices boom. These favorable asset price movements improve national fiscal indicators and encourage domestic credit expansion. These, in turn, exacerbate structural weakness in the domestic bank sector. When global investors' sentiment on emerging markets shift, the flows reverse and asset prices give back their gains, often forcing a painful adjustment on the economy. [6]

The following are the details of the dangers that hot money presents to the receiving country's economy:

Furthermore, hot money could lead to exchange rate appreciation or even cause exchange rate overshooting. And if this exchange rate appreciation persists, it would hurt the competitiveness of the respective country's export sector by making the country's exports more expensive compared to similar foreign goods and services. [7]

However, some economists and financial experts argue that hot money could also play positive role in countries that have relatively low level of foreign exchange reserves, because the capital inflow may present a useful opportunity for those countries to augment their central banks' reserve holdings. [9]

Control

Generally speaking, given their relatively high interest rates compared with that of the developed market economies, emerging market economies are the destination of hot money. Although the emerging market countries welcome capital inflows such as foreign direct investment, because of hot money's negative effects on the economy, they are instituting policies to stop hot money from coming into their country in order to eliminate the negative consequences.

Different countries are using different methods to prevent massive influx of hot money. The following are the main methods of dealing with hot money. [9]

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Exchange rate</span> Rate at which one currency will be exchanged for another

In finance, an exchange rate is the rate at which one currency will be exchanged for another currency. Currencies are most commonly national currencies, but may be sub-national as in the case of Hong Kong or supra-national as in the case of the euro.

The money market is a component of the economy that provides short-term funds. The money market deals in short-term loans, generally for a period of a year or less.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">1997 Asian financial crisis</span> Financial crisis of many Asian countries during the second half of 1997

The 1997 Asian financial crisis was a period of financial crisis that gripped much of East and Southeast Asia during the late 1990s. The crisis began in Thailand in July 1997 before spreading to several other countries with a ripple effect, raising fears of a worldwide economic meltdown due to financial contagion. However, the recovery in 1998–1999 was rapid, and worries of a meltdown quickly subsided.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Balance of payments</span> Difference between the inflow and outflow of money to a country at a given time

In international economics, the balance of payments of a country is the difference between all money flowing into the country in a particular period of time and the outflow of money to the rest of the world. In other words, it is economic transactions between countries during a period of time. These financial transactions are made by individuals, firms and government bodies to compare receipts and payments arising out of trade of goods and services.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Foreign exchange market</span> Global decentralized trading of international currencies

The foreign exchange market is a global decentralized or over-the-counter (OTC) market for the trading of currencies. This market determines foreign exchange rates for every currency. It includes all aspects of buying, selling and exchanging currencies at current or determined prices. In terms of trading volume, it is by far the largest market in the world, followed by the credit market.

In macroeconomics, an open market operation (OMO) is an activity by a central bank to exchange liquidity in its currency with a bank or a group of banks. The central bank can either transact government bonds and other financial assets in the open market or enter into a repo or secured lending transaction with a commercial bank. The latter option, often preferred by central banks, involves them making fixed period deposits at commercial banks with the security of eligible assets as collateral.

The Mexican peso crisis was a currency crisis sparked by the Mexican government's sudden devaluation of the peso against the U.S. dollar in December 1994, which became one of the first international financial crises ignited by capital flight.

Foreign exchange reserves are cash and other reserve assets such as gold and silver held by a central bank or other monetary authority that are primarily available to balance payments of the country, influence the foreign exchange rate of its currency, and to maintain confidence in financial markets. Reserves are held in one or more reserve currencies, nowadays mostly the United States dollar and to a lesser extent the euro.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Impossible trinity</span> Trilemma in international economics

The impossible trinity is a concept in international economics and international political economy which states that it is impossible to have all three of the following at the same time:

In macroeconomics and international finance, the capital account, also known as the capital and financial account, records the net flow of investment into an economy. It is one of the two primary components of the balance of payments, the other being the current account. Whereas the current account reflects a nation's net income, the capital account reflects net change in ownership of national assets.

A currency crisis is a type of financial crisis, and is often associated with a real economic crisis. A currency crisis raises the probability of a banking crisis or a default crisis. During a currency crisis the value of foreign denominated debt will rise drastically relative to the declining value of the home currency. Generally doubt exists as to whether a country's central bank has sufficient foreign exchange reserves to maintain the country's fixed exchange rate, if it has any.

Capital began to flow in and out of Japan following the Meiji Restoration of 1868, but policy restricted loans from overseas. In the aftermath of World War II, Japan was a debtor nation until the mid-1960s. Subsequently, capital controls were progressively removed, in part as a result of agreements with the United States. This process led to rapid expansion of capital flows during the 1970s and especially the 1980s, when Japan became a creditor nation and the largest net investor in the world. This credit position resulted both from foreign direct investment by Japanese corporations, and portfolio investment. In particular, the rapid increase of Japan's direct investments overseas, much exceeding foreign investment in Japan, led to some tension with the US at the end of the 1980s.

Foreign exchange risk is a financial risk that exists when a financial transaction is denominated in a currency other than the domestic currency of the company. The exchange risk arises when there is a risk of an unfavourable change in exchange rate between the domestic currency and the denominated currency before the date when the transaction is completed.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Currency appreciation and depreciation</span> Change of currency values relative to other currencies

Currency depreciation is the loss of value of a country's currency with respect to one or more foreign reference currencies, typically in a floating exchange rate system in which no official currency value is maintained. Currency appreciation in the same context is an increase in the value of the currency. Short-term changes in the value of a currency are reflected in changes in the exchange rate.

Capital account convertibility is a feature of a nation's financial regime that centers on the ability to conduct transactions of local financial assets into foreign financial assets freely or at market determined exchange rates. It is sometimes referred to as capital asset liberation or CAC.

A sudden stop in capital flows is defined as a sudden slowdown in private capital inflows into emerging market economies, and a corresponding sharp reversal from large current account deficits into smaller deficits or small surpluses. Sudden stops are usually followed by a sharp decrease in output, private spending and credit to the private sector, and real exchange rate depreciation. The term “sudden stop” was inspired by a banker’s comment on a paper by Rüdiger Dornbusch and Alejandro Werner about Mexico, that “it is not speed that kills, it is the sudden stop”.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Currency intervention</span> Monetary policy operation

Currency intervention, also known as foreign exchange market intervention or currency manipulation, is a monetary policy operation. It occurs when a government or central bank buys or sells foreign currency in exchange for its own domestic currency, generally with the intention of influencing the exchange rate and trade policy.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Sterilization (economics)</span>

In macroeconomics, sterilization is action taken by a country's central bank to counter the effects on the money supply caused by a balance of payments surplus or deficit. This can involve open market operations undertaken by the central bank whose aim is to neutralize the impact of associated foreign exchange operations. The opposite is unsterilized intervention, where monetary authorities have not insulated their country's domestic money supply and internal balance against foreign exchange intervention.

Fear of floating refers to situations where a country prefers a fixed exchange rate to a floating exchange rate regime. This is more relevant in emerging economies, especially when they suffered from financial crisis in the last two decades. In foreign exchange markets of the emerging market economies, there is evidence showing that countries who claim they are floating their currency, are actually reluctant to let the nominal exchange rate fluctuate in response to macroeconomic shocks. In the literature, this is first convincingly documented by Calvo and Reinhart with "fear of floating" as the title of one of their papers in 2000. Since then, this widespread phenomenon of reluctance to adjust exchange rates in emerging markets is usually called "fear of floating". Most of the studies on "fear of floating" are closely related to literature on costs and benefits of different exchange rate regimes.

Prudential capital controls are typical ways of prudential regulation that takes the form of capital controls and regulates a country's capital account inflows. Prudential capital controls aim to mitigate systemic risk, reduce business cycle volatility, increase macroeconomic stability, and enhance social welfare.

References

  1. 1 2 Martin, Micheal F.; Morrison, Wayne M. (July 21, 2008). China's "Hot Money" Problems. Congressional Research Service (Report). RS22921.
  2. Hot Money and Serial Financial Crises, Anton Korinek, IMF Economic Review (2011)
  3. 1 2 Calvo, Guillermo A.; Leiderman, Leonardo; Reinhart, Carmen M. (1996). "Inflows of Capital to Developing Countries in the 1990s". Journal of Economic Perspectives. 10 (2): 123–139. doi:10.1257/jep.10.2.123.
  4. Baily, Martin N.; Farrell, Diana; Lund, Susan (May 2000). "Hot Money". McKinsey Quarterly.
  5. Baily, Martin N.; Farrell, Diana; Lund, Susan (2000). "The Color of Hot Money". Foreign Affairs. 79 (2): 99–109. doi:10.2307/20049643. JSTOR   20049643.
  6. 1 2 Reinhart, Carmen; Reinhart, Vincent (2008). "Capital Flow Bonanzas: An Encompassing View of the Past and Present". National Bureau of Economic Research . Working Paper Series. doi:10.3386/w14321.
  7. Caballero, Ricardo J.; Lorenzoni, Guido (April 19, 2007). "Persistent Appreciation and Overshooting: A Normative Analysis" (PDF). MIT and NBER.
  8. Short Term Capital Flows, by Dani Rodrik, Andres Velasco, 1999 NBER
  9. 1 2 "Capital Inflows: The Role of Controls" (PDF). IMF Staff Position Note. February 19, 2010.
  10. Turkey surprises with interest rate cut, by Delphine Strauss, Financial Times, December 16, 2010
  11. Bryant, Steve (Feb 14, 2011). "Simsek Says $8 Billion 'Hot Money' Left Turkey". Bloomberg News.
  12. China enhances efforts to curb hot money inflow, China Daily, November 09, 2011
  13. Rana, Pradumna B. (1998). Controls on Short-Term Capital Inflows - The Latin American Experience and Lessons For DMCs (PDF). Economics and Development Resource Center Briefing Notes (Report). Asian Development Bank.
  14. Cardarelli, Roberto; Kose, M. Ayhan; Elekdag, Selim (2009). "Capital Inflows: Macroeconomic Implications and Policy Responses". Imf Working Papers. 09 (40): 1. doi:10.5089/9781451871883.001.
  15. Capital Flows in the APEC Region. Occasional Papers. 1995. doi:10.5089/9781557754660.084. ISBN   978-1-55775-466-0.