The ITEM Club is an economic forecasting group based in the United Kingdom. ITEM stands for Independent Treasury Economic Model. It was founded in 1977 to produce quarterly economic UK forecasts, which are often mentioned in the UK news media. [1] It has been sponsored by EY (Ernst & Young), a firm of business and financial advisers, [2] and was officially named The EY ITEM Club in 2012. The ITEM Club is clear in all its materials that it is independent of any political, academic or commercial bias despite corporate sponsorship.
The UK model is used by HM Treasury for its policy analysis and biannual Industry Act forecasts for the Budget. This enables ITEM to explore the implications and unpublished assumptions behind Government forecasts and policy measures. ITEM can test whether Government claims are consistent and can assess which forecasts are credible and which are not.
Martin Beck has been the EY ITEM Club's Senior Economic Advisor since July 2021 replacing Dr Howard Archer who was in role since June 2017. Archer took over from Professor Peter Spencer, one of the UK's most distinguished economists who had held the position since 2001.
In economics, a recession is a business cycle contraction that occurs when there is a period of broad decline in economic activity. Recessions generally occur when there is a widespread drop in spending. This may be triggered by various events, such as a financial crisis, an external trade shock, an adverse supply shock, the bursting of an economic bubble, or a large-scale anthropogenic or natural disaster. There is no official definition of a recession, according to the IMF.
The Big Four are the four largest professional services networks in the world: Deloitte, EY, KPMG, and PwC. They are the four largest global accounting networks as measured by revenue. The four are often grouped because they are comparable in size relative to the rest of the market, both in terms of revenue and workforce; they are considered equal in their ability to provide a wide scope of professional services to their clients; and, among those looking to start a career in professional services, particularly accounting, they are considered equally attractive networks to work in, because of the frequency with which these firms engage with Fortune 500 companies.
Ernst & Young Global Limited, trade name EY, is a multinational professional services partnership. EY is one of the largest professional services networks in the world. Along with Deloitte, KPMG and PwC, it is considered one of the Big Four accounting firms. It primarily provides assurance, tax, information technology services, consulting, and advisory services to its clients.
The chancellor of the exchequer, often abbreviated to Chancellor, is a senior minister of the Crown within the Government of the United Kingdom, and head of Treasury. As one of the four Great Offices of State, the chancellor is a high-ranking member of the British Cabinet.
The national debt of the United States is the total national debt owed by the federal government of the United States to Treasury security holders. The national debt at any point in time is the face value of the then-outstanding Treasury securities that have been issued by the Treasury and other federal agencies. The terms "national deficit" and "national surplus" usually refer to the federal government budget balance from year to year, not the cumulative amount of debt. In a deficit year the national debt increases as the government needs to borrow funds to finance the deficit, while in a surplus year the debt decreases as more money is received than spent, enabling the government to reduce the debt by buying back some Treasury securities. In general, government debt increases as a result of government spending and decreases from tax or other receipts, both of which fluctuate during the course of a fiscal year. There are two components of gross national debt:
The Office for National Statistics is the executive office of the UK Statistics Authority, a non-ministerial department which reports directly to the UK Parliament.
The Treasurerof Australia, also known as the FederalTreasurer or more simply the Treasurer, is the minister of state of the Commonwealth of Australia charged with overseeing government revenue collection, federal expenditure and economic policy as the head of the Department of the Treasury. The current treasurer is Jim Chalmers, who was selected by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese in May 2022 following the 2022 Australian federal election.
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is a committee of the Bank of England, which meets for three and a half days, eight times a year, to decide the official interest rate in the United Kingdom.
Sir Alan Peter Budd was a British economist, who was a founding member of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) in 1997.
Anthony Patrick Leslie Minford is a British macroeconomist who is professor of applied economics at Cardiff Business School, Cardiff University, a position he has held since 1997. He was Edward Gonner Professor of Applied Economics at the University of Liverpool from 1976 to 1997. In 2016, Minford was a notable member of the Economists for Brexit group which, in opposition to the consensus view of economists, advocated the UK leaving the European Union and claimed large economic benefits, which did not occur.
The United States budget comprises the spending and revenues of the U.S. federal government. The budget is the financial representation of the priorities of the government, reflecting historical debates and competing economic philosophies. The government primarily spends on healthcare, retirement, and defense programs. The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office provides extensive analysis of the budget and its economic effects. CBO estimated in February 2024 that Federal debt held by the public is projected to rise from 99 percent of GDP in 2024 to 116 percent in 2034 and would continue to grow if current laws generally remained unchanged. Over that period, the growth of interest costs and mandatory spending outpaces the growth of revenues and the economy, driving up debt. Those factors persist beyond 2034, pushing federal debt higher still, to 172 percent of GDP in 2054.
The New Zealand Treasury is the central public service department of New Zealand charged with advising the Government on economic policy, assisting with improving the performance of New Zealand's economy, and managing financial resources. The Minister responsible for the Treasury is the Minister of Finance of New Zealand; however, from 1996 to 2002, there existed a more specific position of Treasurer of New Zealand. The role was created for Winston Peters by the Fourth National Government under Jim Bolger after the 1996 election, and abolished by Helen Clark’s government in 2002.
The Department of the Treasury, also known as The Treasury, is the national treasury and financial department of the federal government of the Commonwealth of Australia. The treasury is responsible for executing economic and fiscal policy, market regulation and the delivery of the federal budget with the department overseeing 16 agencies. The Treasury is one of only two departments that have existed continuously since Federation in 1901, the other being the Department of the Attorney-General.
The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR), established in 1938, is Britain's oldest independent economic research institute. The institute is a London-based independent UK registered charity that carries out academic research of relevance to business and policy makers, both nationally and internationally.
Andrew SentanceCBE is a British business economist. He was a Senior Adviser to Cambridge Econometrics from October 2019 to September 2023. From November 2011 until October 2018, he was Senior Economic Adviser to PwC. He was an external member of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England from October 2006 to May 2011 and is a former Chief Economist at British Airways and Director of Economic Affairs at the CBI.
The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) is a non-departmental public body funded by the UK Treasury, that the UK government established to provide independent economic forecasts and independent analysis of the public finances. It was formally created in May 2010 following the general election and was placed on a statutory footing by the Budget Responsibility and National Audit Act 2011. It is one of a growing number of official independent fiscal watchdogs around the world.
Wynne Godley was an economist famous for his pessimism about the British economy and his criticism of the British government. In 2007, he and Marc Lavoie wrote a book about the "Stock-Flow Consistent" model, an analysis that predicted the 2007–2008 financial crisis. Dirk Bezemer argues that Godley was notable for predicting the nature of the Great Recession of the late 2000s well in advance, and for doing so on the basis of a formal model.
Political debates about the United States federal budget discusses some of the more significant U.S. budgetary debates of the 21st century. These include the causes of debt increases, the impact of tax cuts, specific events such as the United States fiscal cliff, the effectiveness of stimulus, and the impact of the Great Recession, among others. The article explains how to analyze the U.S. budget as well as the competing economic schools of thought that support the budgetary positions of the major parties.
Mark A. Weinberger is an American businessman. He is the former global Chairman and CEO of EY. Weinberger currently sits on several boards of directors, including those of Metlife, Johnson & Johnson Saudi Aramco. and JPMorgan Chase. Earlier in his career he has also held several posts in the public sector in Washington, D.C., including time as Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Tax Policy.
The economic effects of Brexit were a major area of debate during and after the referendum on UK membership of the European Union. The majority of economists believe that Brexit has harmed the UK's economy and reduced its real per capita income in the long term, and the referendum itself damaged the economy. It is likely to produce a large decline in immigration from countries in the European Economic Area (EEA) to the UK, and poses challenges for British higher education and academic research.
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