In economics, a recession is a business cycle contraction that occurs when there is a period of broad decline in economic activity. Recessions generally occur when there is a widespread drop in spending. This may be triggered by various events, such as a financial crisis, an external trade shock, an adverse supply shock, the bursting of an economic bubble, or a large-scale anthropogenic or natural disaster. There is no official definition of a recession, according to the IMF.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), Dow Jones, or simply the Dow, is a stock market index of 30 prominent companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States.
A barometer is a scientific instrument that is used to measure air pressure in a certain environment. Pressure tendency can forecast short term changes in the weather. Many measurements of air pressure are used within surface weather analysis to help find surface troughs, pressure systems and frontal boundaries.
A stock market crash is a sudden dramatic decline of stock prices across a major cross-section of a stock market, resulting in a significant loss of paper wealth. Crashes are driven by panic selling and underlying economic factors. They often follow speculation and economic bubbles.
A stock market bubble is a type of economic bubble taking place in stock markets when market participants drive stock prices above their value in relation to some system of stock valuation.
The Wall Street crash of 1929, also known as the Great Crash, was a major stock market crash in the United States which began in late October 1929 with a sharp decline in prices on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and ended in mid-November. The crash began a rapid erosion of confidence in the U.S. banking system and marked the beginning of the worldwide Great Depression, which lasted until 1939; it is thus considered the most devastating in the country's history. It is most associated with October 24, 1929, known as "Black Thursday", when a record 12.9 million shares were traded on the NYSE in a single day, and October 29, 1929, known as "Black Tuesday", when about 16.4 million shares were traded.
Market timing is the strategy of making buying or selling decisions of financial assets by attempting to predict future market price movements. The prediction may be based on an outlook of market or economic conditions resulting from technical or fundamental analysis. This is an investment strategy based on the outlook for an aggregate market rather than for a particular financial asset.
Market sentiment, also known as investor attention, is the general prevailing attitude of investors as to anticipated price development in a market. This attitude is the accumulation of a variety of fundamental and technical factors, including price history, economic reports, seasonal factors, and national and world events. If investors expect upward price movement in the stock market, the sentiment is said to be bullish. On the contrary, if the market sentiment is bearish, most investors expect downward price movement. Market participants who maintain a static sentiment, regardless of market conditions, are described as permabulls and permabears respectively. Market sentiment is usually considered as a contrarian indicator: what most people expect is a good thing to bet against. Market sentiment is used because it is believed to be a good predictor of market moves, especially when it is more extreme. Very bearish sentiment is usually followed by the market going up more than normal, and vice versa. A bull market refers to a sustained period of either realized or expected price rises, whereas a bear market is used to describe when an index or stock has fallen 20% or more from a recent high for a sustained length of time.
The "Fed model", or "Fed Stock Valuation Model" (FSVM), is a disputed theory of equity valuation that compares the stock market's forward earnings yield to the nominal yield on long-term government bonds, and that the stock market – as a whole – is fairly valued, when the one-year forward-looking I/B/E/S earnings yield equals the 10-year nominal Treasury yield; deviations suggest over-or-under valuation.
Marc Faber is a Swiss investor based in Thailand. He is the publisher of the Gloom Boom & Doom Report newsletter, and the director of Marc Faber Ltd, which acts as an investment advisor and fund manager. Faber also serves as director, advisor, and shareholder of a number of investment funds that focus on emerging and frontier markets, including Asia Frontier Capital Ltd.'s AFC Asia Frontier Fund. Faber is credited for advising his clients to get out of the stock market before the October 1987 crash, and with in 2005-06 writing extensively about an impending crash of home prices, prior to the 2007–2008 financial crisis. In 2017 he was criticized for racist remarks.
In medicine and statistics, sensitivity and specificity mathematically describe the accuracy of a test that reports the presence or absence of a medical condition. If individuals who have the condition are considered "positive" and those who do not are considered "negative", then sensitivity is a measure of how well a test can identify true positives and specificity is a measure of how well a test can identify true negatives:
In finance, volatility is the degree of variation of a trading price series over time, usually measured by the standard deviation of logarithmic returns.
Stock market cycles are proposed patterns that proponents argue may exist in stock markets. Many such cycles have been proposed, such as tying stock market changes to political leadership, or fluctuations in commodity prices. Some stock market designs are universally recognized. However, many academics and professional investors are skeptical of any theory claiming to identify or predict stock market cycles precisely. Some sources argue identifying any such patterns as a "cycle" is a misnomer, because of their non-cyclical nature. Economists using efficient-market hypothesis say that asset prices reflect all available information meaning that it is impossible to systematically beat the market by taking advantage of such cycles.
Marketing buzz or simply buzz—a term used in viral marketing—is the interaction of consumers and users with a product or service which amplifies or alters the original marketing message. This emotion, energy, excitement, or anticipation about a product or service can be positive or negative. Buzz can be generated by intentional marketing activities by the brand owner or it can be the result of an independent event that enters public awareness through social or traditional media such as newspapers. Marketing buzz originally referred to oral communication but in the age of Web 2.0, social media such as Facebook, Twitter, Instagram and YouTube are now the dominant communication channels for marketing buzz.
Fossil Fuel Beta (FFß) measures the percent change in excess (market-adjusted) stock returns for every 1 percent increase in fossil fuel prices. For example, if a company has an FFß of –0.20, then a 1 percent increase in fossil fuel prices should produce, on average, a 0.2% decline in the firm's stock price over and above the impact arising from fossil fuel price swing on the stock market as a whole.
William Peter Hamilton, a proponent of Dow Theory, was the fourth editor of the Wall Street Journal, serving in that capacity for more than 20 years.
The Super Bowl Indicator is a spurious correlation that says that the stock market's performance in a given year can be predicted based on the outcome of the Super Bowl of that year. It was "discovered" by Leonard Koppett in 1978 when he realized that it had never been wrong, until that point. This pseudo-macroeconomic concept states that if a team from the American Football Conference (AFC) wins, then it will be a bear market, but if a team from the National Football Conference (NFC) or a team that was in the NFL before the NFL/AFL merger wins, it will be a bull market.
The economic effects of Brexit were a major area of debate during and after the referendum on UK membership of the European Union. The majority of economists believe that Brexit has harmed the UK's economy and reduced its real per capita income in the long term, and the referendum itself damaged the economy. It is likely to produce a large decline in immigration from countries in the European Economic Area (EEA) to the UK, and poses challenges for British higher education and academic research.
In economics, negative pricing can occur when demand for a product drops or supply increases to an extent that owners or suppliers are prepared to pay others to accept it, in effect setting the price to a negative number. This can happen because it costs money to transport, store, and dispose of a product even when there is little demand to buy it, or because halting production would be more expensive than selling at a negative price.
The 2022 stock market decline was a bear market that included the decline of several stock market indices worldwide between January and October 2022. The decline was due to the highest inflation readings as part of the 2021-2023 inflation surge and the resulting increases in interest rates, combined with fears of a global recession due to a decline in economic indicators and an inverted yield curve, exacerbated by supply chain disruptions due to the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine and uncertainty over the long-term effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the economy.
