Super Bowl indicator

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The Super Bowl Indicator is a spurious correlation that says that the stock market's performance in a given year can be predicted based on the outcome of the Super Bowl of that year. It was "discovered" by Leonard Koppett in 1978 [1] when he realized that it had never been wrong, until that point. This pseudo-macroeconomic concept states that if a team from the American Football Conference (AFC) wins, then it will be a bear market (or down market), but if a team from the National Football Conference (NFC) or a team that was in the NFL before the NFL/AFL merger wins, it will be a bull market (up market).

Contents

As of January 2022, the predictor had been right 41 out of 55 games, a 75% success rate. [2] Without retrospective predictions, i.e. after its invention in 1978, it had been correct in 29 out of 43 games, a success rate of 67%.

Data

YearTeamLeagueConferenceMarketCorrect
2000RamsNFLNFCDecrease2.svgNo
2001RavensexpAFCDecrease2.svgYes
2002PatriotsAFLAFCDecrease2.svgYes
2003BuccaneersexpNFCIncrease2.svgYes
2004PatriotsAFLAFCIncrease2.svgNo
2005PatriotsAFLAFCDecrease2.svgYes
2006SteelersNFLAFCIncrease2.svgNo
2007ColtsNFLAFCIncrease2.svgNo
2008GiantsNFLNFCDecrease2.svgNo
2009SteelersNFLAFCIncrease2.svgNo
2010SaintsNFLNFCIncrease2.svgYes
2011PackersNFLNFCIncrease2.svgYes
2012GiantsNFLNFCIncrease2.svgYes
2013RavensexpAFCIncrease2.svgNo
2014SeahawksexpNFCIncrease2.svgYes
2015PatriotsexpAFCDecrease2.svgYes
2016BroncosexpAFCIncrease2.svgNo
2017PatriotsexpAFCIncrease2.svgNo
2018EaglesexpNFCDecrease2.svgNo
2019PatriotsexpAFCIncrease2.svgNo
2020ChiefsexpAFCIncrease2.svgNo
2021BuccaneersexpNFCIncrease2.svgYes
2022RamsexpNFCDecrease2.svgNo
2023ChiefsexpAFCIncrease2.svgNo
2024ChiefsexpAFC

See also

References

  1. "Everything you want to know about the Super Bowl Indicator". 13 February 2022.
  2. "Super Bowl Indicator Says Market Should Rise in 2022 If Rams Win". Forbes. 31 January 2022.