For the Callendar effect theory linking carbon dioxide levels to global temperature, see Guy Stewart Callendar.
Difference in the behavior of a system that is related to the calendar
A calendar effect (or calendar anomaly) is the difference in behavior of a system that is related to the calendar such as the day of the week, time of the month, time of the year, time within the U.S. presidential cycle, or decade within the century. It is most often used in a financial context to describe a market anomaly; traders may use market timing to profit from moves in stock prices based on the calendar.[1]
Weekend effect: Over the very long run, on average, weekend returns in US stock prices have tended to be negative.[2]
Midweek effect: In the US, stock returns from between the Monday close and the Wednesday close have tended to grow at a near-constant rate since the 1880s.[3]
Market prices are often subject to seasonal tendencies because the availability and demand for an item is not constant throughout the year. For example, natural gas prices often rise in the winter because that commodity is in demand as a heating fuel. In the summer, when the demand for heat is lower, prices typically fall.[4] Transactions and prices for housing are higher in the summer than in the winter.[5]
A 2018 study in the Eurozone concluded that calendar effects are not abnormal, citing the increase in market values around the end of the month, when employees are paid.[6]
Arguments that calendar effects do not exist or are not significant
According to the efficient-market hypothesis, the calendar anomalies should not exist because the existence of these anomalies should be already incorporated in the prices of securities.[7]
According to a study published in 2015, calendar affects are a result of financial trends and the business cycle, which affects investor psychology.[9]
↑ Ewald, Christian-Oliver; Haugom, Erik; Lien, Gudbrand; Størdal, Ståle; Wu, Yuexiang (November 2022). "Trading time seasonality in commodity futures: An opportunity for arbitrage in the natural gas and crude oil markets?". Energy Economics. 115 106324. Bibcode:2022EneEc.11506324E. doi:10.1016/j.eneco.2022.106324.
↑ Vasileiou, Evangelos (April 2018). "Is the turn of the month effect an 'abnormal normality'? Controversial findings, new patterns and…hidden signs(?)". Research in International Business and Finance. 44: 153–175. doi:10.1016/j.ribaf.2017.07.057.
↑ Schwert, G. William (2003). "Chapter 15 Anomalies and market efficiency". Financial Markets and Asset Pricing. Handbook of the Economics of Finance. Vol.1. pp.939–974. doi:10.1016/S1574-0102(03)01024-0. ISBN978-0-444-51363-2.
↑ Sullivan, Ryan; Timmermann, Allan; White, Halbert (November 2001). "Dangers of data mining: The case of calendar effects in stock returns". Journal of Econometrics. 105 (1): 249–286. doi:10.1016/S0304-4076(01)00077-X.
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