July effect

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The July effect, sometimes referred to as the July phenomenon, is a perceived but scientifically unfounded increase in the risk of medical errors and surgical complications that occurs in association with the time of year in which United States medical school graduates begin residencies. [1] A similar period in the United Kingdom is known as the killing season or, more specifically, Black Wednesday, referring to the first Wednesday in August when postgraduate trainees commence their rotations. In reality, this phenomenon has not been proven in the scientific literature. In fact, large-scale meta analysis, which has aggregated over 110 studies on this topic, has shown no evidence of a July effect on mortality, morbidity, or readmission. [2]

Contents

United States

A Journal of General Internal Medicine study, published in 2010, investigated medical errors from 1979 to 2006 in United States hospitals and found that medication errors increased 10% during the month of July at teaching hospitals, but not in neighboring hospitals. [3] [4] Surgical errors did not increase, leading to the hypothesis that medication errors are easier for new personnel to make because they are prescribing drugs on their own, rather than being cross-checked by others. [5] The study did not have sufficient data to link the increased errors to new residents, however, and further study would need to be done in order to determine the sources of this increase. [6] A criticism of the study suggests that the supervision of new residents and the patient loads at teaching hospitals have improved since 1979 and that the results may be skewed by including much older data. [7]

Other studies searching for the July effect have found variable evidence of an increased risk, with several studies finding no risk at all. [4]

United Kingdom

In Britain, there is an influx of newly qualified doctors into the National Health Service (NHS) each August, and this period is associated with an increase in medical errors. The phenomenon has been recognised by Professor Sir Bruce Keogh, medical director of the NHS. The term "Killing Season" originated in the 1994 British medical drama series Cardiac Arrest written by Jed Mercurio (under the pseudonym John MacUre). [21] In an episode first broadcast on BBC1 on 5 May 1994, the character Dr. Claire Maitland consoles a junior who has just committed a fatal error with the dialogue: "You come out of medical school knowing bugger all. No wonder August is the killing season. We all kill a few patients while we're learning." [22] [23]

The day when junior doctors typically start work has also been dubbed "Black Wednesday" among NHS staff. A 2009 Imperial College London study of records for 300,000 patients at 170 hospitals between 2000 and 2008 found that death rates were 6 percent higher on Black Wednesday than the previous Wednesday. The study also found that typically fewer patients attended A&E on the first Wednesday in August than the previous week. [24]

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References

  1. ↑ Zogg, Cheryl K.; Metcalfe, David; Sokas, Claire M.; Dalton, Michael K.; Hirji, Sameer A.; Davis, Kimberly A.; Haider, Adil H.; Cooper, Zara; Lichtman, Judith H. (25 February 2021). "Reassessing the July Effect: 30 Years of Evidence Show No Difference in Outcomes". Annals of Surgery. 277 (1): e204–e211. doi:10.1097/SLA.0000000000004805. ISSN   1528-1140. PMC   8384940 . PMID   33914485.
  2. ↑ Zogg, Cheryl K.; Metcalfe, David; Sokas, Claire M.; Dalton, Michael K.; Hirji, Sameer A.; Davis, Kimberly A.; Haider, Adil H.; Cooper, Zara; Lichtman, Judith H. (January 2023). "Reassessing the July Effect: 30 Years of Evidence Show No Difference in Outcomes". Annals of Surgery. 277 (1): e204–e211. doi:10.1097/SLA.0000000000004805. ISSN   0003-4932. PMC   8384940 . PMID   33914485.
  3. ↑ Phillips DP, Barker GE (May 2010). "A July Spike in Fatal Medication Errors: A Possible Effect of New Medical Residents". J Gen Intern Med. 25 (8): 774–779. doi:10.1007/s11606-010-1356-3. PMC   2896592 . PMID   20512532.
  4. 1 2 "New residents linked to July medication errors", amednews, 21 June 2010, American Medical Association
  5. ↑ National Public Radio (5 July 2010). "July: A Deadly Time For Hospitals". NPR.org. Retrieved 11 August 2010.
  6. ↑ "The 'July Effect': Worst Month For Fatal Hospital Errors, Study Finds", ABC News , 3 June 2010
  7. ↑ "Valley Dr.: Surgery's `July effect' outdated", KTAR , 17 June 2010
  8. ↑ Yaghoubian A, de Virgilio C, Chiu V, Lee SL (2010). "'July effect' and appendicitis". J Surg Educ. 67 (3): 157–160. doi:10.1016/j.jsurg.2010.04.003. PMID   20630426.
  9. ↑ Inaba K, Recinos G, Teixeira PG, et al. (January 2010). "Complications and death at the start of the new academic year: is there a July phenomenon?". J Trauma. 68 (1): 19–22. doi:10.1097/TA.0b013e3181b88dfe. PMID   20065752.
  10. ↑ Schroeppel TJ, Fischer PE, Magnotti LJ, Croce MA, Fabian TC (September 2009). "The "July phenomenon": is trauma the exception?". J. Am. Coll. Surg. 209 (3): 378–384. doi:10.1016/j.jamcollsurg.2009.05.026. PMID   19717044.
  11. ↑ "'July phenomenon' from new residents debunked", amednews, 26 October 2009, American Medical Association
  12. ↑ Alshekhlee A, Walbert T, DeGeorgia M, Preston DC, Furlan AJ (2009). "The impact of Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education duty hours, the July phenomenon, and hospital teaching status on stroke outcomes". Journal of Stroke and Cerebrovascular Diseases. 18 (3): 232–238. doi:10.1016/j.jstrokecerebrovasdis.2008.10.006. PMID   19426896.
  13. ↑ Garcia S, Canoniero M, Young L (May 2009). "The Effect of July Admission in the Process of Care of Patients with Acute Cardiovascular Conditions". South. Med. J. 102 (6): 602–607. doi:10.1097/SMJ.0b013e3181a2f8ca. PMID   19434039. S2CID   34683280.
  14. ↑ Dhaliwal AS, Chu D, Deswal A, et al. (November 2008). "The July effect and cardiac surgery: the effect of the beginning of the academic cycle on outcomes". Am. J. Surg. 196 (5): 720–725. doi:10.1016/j.amjsurg.2008.07.005. PMID   18789415.
  15. ↑ Englesbe MJ, Pelletier SJ, Magee JC, et al. (September 2007). "Seasonal variation in surgical outcomes as measured by the American College of Surgeons-National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS-NSQIP)". Annals of Surgery. 246 (3): 456–462, discussion 463–465. doi:10.1097/SLA.0b013e31814855f2. PMC   1959349 . PMID   17717449.
  16. ↑ Kestle JR, Cochrane DD, Drake JM (September 2006). "Shunt insertion in the summer: is it safe?". J. Neurosurg. 105 (3 Suppl): 165–168. doi: 10.3171/ped.2006.105.3.165 . PMID   16970227.
  17. ↑ Myles TD (November 2003). "Is there an obstetric July phenomenon?". Obstetrics and Gynecology. 102 (5 Pt 1): 1080–1084. doi:10.1016/j.obstetgynecol.2003.08.001. PMID   14672490. S2CID   7921069.
  18. ↑ Young, John Q.; Ranji, Sumant R.; Wachter, Robert M.; Lee, Connie M.; Niehaus, Brian; Auerbach, Andrew D. (6 September 2011). ""July Effect": Impact of the Academic Year-End Changeover on Patient Outcomes". Annals of Internal Medicine. 155 (5): 309–315. doi: 10.7326/0003-4819-155-5-201109060-00354 . PMID   21747093.
  19. ↑ Thiels, Cornelius A.; Hanson, Kristine T.; Heller, Stephanie F.; Zielinski, Martin D.; Habermann, Elizabeth B. (2016). "Assessment of Patient-Reported Experiences of Hospital Care and the July Phenomenon". JAMA Surgery. 151 (9): 879–880. doi:10.1001/jamasurg.2016.0402. PMID   27248135.
  20. ↑ Murtha, Timothy D.; Kunstman, John W.; Healy, James M.; Yoo, Peter S.; Salem, Ronald R. (16 August 2019). "A Critical Appraisal of the July Effect: Evaluating Complications Following Pancreaticoduodenectomy". Journal of Gastrointestinal Surgery. 24 (9): 2030–2036. doi:10.1007/s11605-019-04357-z. PMID   31420859. S2CID   201017743.
  21. ↑ Aylin, Majeed (24 December 1994), "The Killing Season – fact or fiction?", The British Medical Journal , vol. 309, no. 6970, p. 1690, doi:10.1136/bmj.309.6970.1690, PMC   2542669 , PMID   7819988
  22. ↑ Cardiac Arrest The Killing Season, The Internet Movie Database, 5 May 1994
  23. ↑ Dillner, Louise (23 April 1994), "Frightening realism", The British Medical Journal , vol. 308, no. 6936, p. 1108, doi:10.1136/bmj.308.6936.1108, S2CID   220175996
  24. ↑ "Will patients really die this week because of new NHS hospital doctors?". The Guardian. August 2012. Retrieved 28 September 2013.

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