Market timing

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Market timing is the strategy of making buying or selling decisions of financial assets (often stocks) by attempting to predict future market price movements. The prediction may be based on an outlook of market or economic conditions resulting from technical or fundamental analysis. This is an investment strategy based on the outlook for an aggregate market rather than for a particular financial asset.

Contents

The efficient-market hypothesis is an assumption that asset prices reflect all available information, meaning that it is theoretically impossible to systematically "beat the market."

Approaches

Market timing can cause poor performance. [1]

After fees, the average "trend follower" does not show skills or abilities compared to benchmarks. "Trend Tracker" reported returns are distorted by survivor bias, selection bias, and fill bias. [2]

At the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, YiLi Chien, Senior Economist wrote about return-chasing behavior. The average equity mutual fund investor tends to buy mutual funds with high past returns and sell otherwise. Buying mutual funds with high returns is called a “return-chasing behavior.” Equity mutual fund flows have a positive correlation with past performance, with a return-flow correlation coefficient of 0.49. Stock market returns are almost unpredictable in the short term. Stock market returns tend to go back to the long-term average. The tendency to buy mutual funds with high returns and sell those with low returns can reduce profit. [3]

Institutional investors often use proprietary market-timing software developed internally that can be a trade secret. Some algorithms attempt to predict the future superiority of stocks versus bonds (or vice versa), [4] [5] have been published in peer-reviewed journals.

Market timing often looks at moving averages such as 50- and 200-day moving averages (which are particularly popular). [6] Some people believe that if the market has gone above the 50- or 200-day average that should be considered bullish, or below conversely bearish. [7] Technical analysts consider it significant when one moving average crosses over another. The market timers then predict that the trend will, more likely than not, continue in the future. Others say, "nobody knows" and that world economies and stock markets are of such complexity that market-timing strategies are unlikely to be more profitable than buy-and-hold strategies.

Moving average strategies are simple to understand, and often claim to give good returns, but the results may be confused by hindsight and data mining. [8] [9]

A major stumbling block for many market timers is a phenomenon called "curve fitting", which states that a given set of trading rules tends to be over-optimized to fit the particular dataset for which it has been back-tested. Unfortunately, if the trading rules are over-optimized they often fail to work on future data. Market timers attempt to avoid these problems by looking for clusters of parameter values that work well [10] or by using out-of-sample data, which ostensibly allows the market timer to see how the system works on unforeseen data. Critics, however, argue that once the strategy has been revised to reflect such data it is no longer "out-of-sample".

Mutual funds

Mutual fund flows are published by organizations like Investment Company Institute, Lipper, Morningstar, and TrimTabs. [11] They show that flows generally track the overall level of the market: investors buy stocks when prices are high, and sell stocks when prices are low. For example, in the beginning of the 2000s, the largest inflows to stock mutual funds were in early 2000 while the largest outflows were in mid-2002. These mutual fund flows were near the start of a significant bear (downtrending) market and bull (uptrending) market respectively. A similar pattern is repeated near the end of the decade. [12] [13] [14] [15] [16]

This mutual fund flow data seems to indicate that most investors (despite what they may say) actually follow a buy-high, sell-low strategy. [17] [18] Studies confirm that the general tendency of investors is to buy after a stock or mutual fund price has increased. [19] This surge in the number of buyers may then drive the price even higher. However, eventually, the supply of buyers becomes exhausted, and the demand for the stock declines and the stock or fund price also declines. After inflows, there may be a short-term boost in return, but the significant result is that the return over a longer time is disappointing. [19]

Researchers suggest that, after periods of higher returns, individual investors will sell their value stocks and buy growth stocks. Frazzini and Lamont find that, in general, growth stocks have a lower return, but growth stocks with high inflows have a much worse return. [19]

Studies find that the average investor's return in stocks is much less than the amount that would have been obtained by simply holding an index fund consisting of all stocks contained in the S&P 500 index. [20] [21] [22] [23] [24]

For the 20-year period to the end of 2008, the inflation-adjusted market return was about 5.3% on average per year. The average investor managed to turn $1 million into $800,000, against $2.7 million for the index (after fund costs). [25]

Studies by the financial services market research company Dalbar say that the retention rate for bond and stock funds is three years. This means that in a 20-year period the investor changed funds seven times. Balanced funds are a bit better at four years, or five times. Some trading is necessary since not only is the investor return less than the best asset class, it is typically worse than the worst asset class, which would be better. [26] Balanced funds may be better by reason of investor psychology. [27]

Financial advisors often agree that investors have poor timing, becoming less risk averse when markets are high and more risk averse when markets are low, a strategy that will actually result in less wealth in the long-term compared to someone who consistently invests over a long period regardless of market trends. [28] [29] This is consistent with recency bias and seems contrary to the acrophobia explanation. Similarly, Peter Lynch has stated that "Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections or trying to anticipate corrections than has been lost in the corrections themselves." [30]

Proponents of the efficient-market hypothesis (EMH) claim that prices reflect all available information. EMH assumes that investors are highly intelligent and perfectly rational. However, others dispute this assumption. [31] In particular, proponents of behavioral finance claim that investors are irrational but their biases are consistent and predictable.

Viability of market timing

Whether market timing is ever a viable investment strategy is controversial. Some may consider market timing to be a form of gambling based on pure chance, because they do not believe in undervalued or overvalued markets. The efficient-market hypothesis claims that financial prices always exhibit random walk behavior and thus cannot be predicted with consistency.

Some consider market timing to be sensible in certain situations, such as an apparent bubble. However, because the economy is a complex system that contains many factors, even at times of significant market optimism or pessimism, it remains difficult, if not impossible, to predetermine the local maximum or minimum of future prices with any precision; a so-called bubble can last for many years before prices collapse. Likewise, a crash can persist for extended periods; stocks that appear to be "cheap" at a glance, can often become much cheaper afterwards, before then either rebounding at some time in the future or heading toward bankruptcy.

Proponents of market timing counter that market timing is just another name for trading. They argue that "attempting to predict future market price movements" is what all traders do, regardless of whether they trade individual stocks or collections of stocks, aka, mutual funds. Thus if market timing is not a viable investment strategy, the proponents say, then neither is any of the trading on the various stock exchanges. Those who disagree with this view usually advocate a buy-and-hold strategy with periodic "re-balancing".[ citation needed ]

Others contend that predicting the next event that will affect the economy and stock prices is notoriously difficult. For examples, consider the many unforeseeable, unpredictable, uncertain events between 1985 and 2013 that are shown in Figures 1 to 6 [pages 37 to 42] of Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty. [32]

A 2004 study suggested that the best predictor of a fund's consistent outperformance of the market was low expenses and low turnover, not pursuit of a value or contrarian strategy. [33]

Several independent organizations (e.g., Timer Digest and Hulbert Financial Digest) have tracked some market timers' performance for over thirty years. These organizations have found that purported market timers in many cases do no better than chance, or even worse.

See also

Related Research Articles

Passive management is an investing strategy that tracks a market-weighted index or portfolio. Passive management is most common on the equity market, where index funds track a stock market index, but it is becoming more common in other investment types, including bonds, commodities and hedge funds.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Stock market</span> Place where stocks are traded

A stock market, equity market, or share market is the aggregation of buyers and sellers of stocks, which represent ownership claims on businesses; these may include securities listed on a public stock exchange as well as stock that is only traded privately, such as shares of private companies that are sold to investors through equity crowdfunding platforms. Investments are usually made with an investment strategy in mind.

Investment is traditionally defined as the "commitment of resources to achieve later benefits". If an investment involves money, then it can be defined as a "commitment of money to receive more money later". From a broader viewpoint, an investment can be defined as "to tailor the pattern of expenditure and receipt of resources to optimise the desirable patterns of these flows". When expenditures and receipts are defined in terms of money, then the net monetary receipt in a time period is termed cash flow, while money received in a series of several time periods is termed cash flow stream.

An index fund is a mutual fund or exchange-traded fund (ETF) designed to follow certain preset rules so that it can replicate the performance ("track") of a specified basket of underlying investments. While index providers often emphasize that they are for-profit organizations, index providers have the ability to act as "reluctant regulators" when determining which companies are suitable for an index. Those rules may include tracking prominent indices like the S&P 500 or the Dow Jones Industrial Average or implementation rules, such as tax-management, tracking error minimization, large block trading or patient/flexible trading strategies that allow for greater tracking error but lower market impact costs. Index funds may also have rules that screen for social and sustainable criteria.

A closed-end fund, also known as a closed-end mutual fund, is an investment vehicle fund that raises capital by issuing a fixed number of shares at its inception, and then invests that capital in financial assets such as stocks and bonds. After inception it is closed to new capital, although fund managers sometimes employ leverage. Investors can buy and sell the existing shares in secondary markets.

A mutual fund is an investment fund that pools money from many investors to purchase securities. The term is typically used in the United States, Canada, and India, while similar structures across the globe include the SICAV in Europe, and the open-ended investment company (OEIC) in the UK.

An exchange-traded fund (ETF) is a type of investment fund that is also an exchange-traded product, i.e., it is traded on stock exchanges. ETFs own financial assets such as stocks, bonds, currencies, debts, futures contracts, and/or commodities such as gold bars. Many ETFs provide some level of diversification compared to owning an individual stock.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Value investing</span> Investment paradigm

Value investing is an investment paradigm that involves buying securities that appear underpriced by some form of fundamental analysis. Modern value investing derives from the investment philosophy taught by Benjamin Graham and David Dodd at Columbia Business School starting in 1928 and subsequently developed in their 1934 text Security Analysis.

Contrarian investing is an investment strategy that is characterized by purchasing and selling in contrast to the prevailing sentiment of the time.

Investment management is the professional asset management of various securities, including shareholdings, bonds, and other assets, such as real estate, to meet specified investment goals for the benefit of investors. Investors may be institutions, such as insurance companies, pension funds, corporations, charities, educational establishments, or private investors, either directly via investment contracts/mandates or via collective investment schemes like mutual funds, exchange-traded funds, or Real estate investment trusts.

Buy and hold, also called position trading, is an investment strategy whereby an investor buys financial assets or non-financial assets such as real estate, to hold them long term, with the goal of realizing price appreciation, despite volatility.

In finance, an investment strategy is a set of rules, behaviors or procedures, designed to guide an investor's selection of an investment portfolio. Individuals have different profit objectives, and their individual skills make different tactics and strategies appropriate. Some choices involve a tradeoff between risk and return. Most investors fall somewhere in between, accepting some risk for the expectation of higher returns.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Asset allocation</span> Investment strategy

Asset allocation is the implementation of an investment strategy that attempts to balance risk versus reward by adjusting the percentage of each asset in an investment portfolio according to the investor's risk tolerance, goals and investment time frame. The focus is on the characteristics of the overall portfolio. Such a strategy contrasts with an approach that focuses on individual assets.

A stock fund, or equity fund, is a fund that invests in stocks, also called equity securities. Stock funds can be contrasted with bond funds and money funds. Fund assets are typically mainly in stock, with some amount of cash, which is generally quite small, as opposed to bonds, notes, or other securities. This may be a mutual fund or exchange-traded fund. The objective of an equity fund is long-term growth through capital gains, although historically dividends have also been an important source of total return. Specific equity funds may focus on a certain sector of the market or may be geared toward a certain level of risk.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Stock trader</span> Person or company involved in trading equity securities

A stock trader or equity trader or share trader, also called a stock investor, is a person or company involved in trading equity securities and attempting to profit from the purchase and sale of those securities. Stock traders may be an investor, agent, hedger, arbitrageur, speculator, or stockbroker. Such equity trading in large publicly traded companies may be through a stock exchange. Stock shares in smaller public companies may be bought and sold in over-the-counter (OTC) markets or in some instances in equity crowdfunding platforms.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Value averaging</span>

Value averaging (VA), also known as dollar value averaging (DVA), is a technique for adding to an investment portfolio that is controversially claimed to provide a greater return than other methods such as dollar cost averaging. With the method, investors add to (or withdraw from) their portfolios in such a way that the portfolio balance reaches a predetermined monthly or quarterly target, regardless of market fluctuations. For example, an investor may want to have a $3600 investment in 36 months. Using VA, the investor would aim to have a total investment value of $100 at the beginning of the first month, $200 at the beginning of the second month, and so on. Having invested $100 at the beginning of the first month, the investment may be worth $101 at the end of that month. In that case, the investor invests a further $99 to reach the second month objective of $200. If at the end of the first month, the investment is worth $205, the investor withdraws $5.

Tactical asset allocation (TAA) is a dynamic investment strategy that actively adjusts a portfolio's asset allocation. The goal of a TAA strategy is to improve the risk-adjusted returns of passive management investing.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Stock market index</span> Financial metric which investors use to determine market performance

In finance, a stock index, or stock market index, is an index that measures the performance of a stock market, or of a subset of a stock market. It helps investors compare current stock price levels with past prices to calculate market performance.

Dedicated portfolio theory, in finance, deals with the characteristics and features of a portfolio built to generate a predictable stream of future cash inflows. This is achieved by purchasing bonds and/or other fixed income securities that can and usually are held to maturity to generate this predictable stream from the coupon interest and/or the repayment of the face value of each bond when it matures. The goal is for the stream of cash inflows to exactly match the timing of a predictable stream of cash outflows due to future liabilities. For this reason it is sometimes called cash matching, or liability-driven investing. Determining the least expensive collection of bonds in the right quantities with the right maturities to match the cash flows is an analytical challenge that requires some degree of mathematical sophistication. College level textbooks typically cover the idea of “dedicated portfolios” or “dedicated bond portfolios” in their chapters devoted to the uses of fixed income securities.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Investment fund</span> Way of investing money alongside other investors

An investment fund is a way of investing money alongside other investors in order to benefit from the inherent advantages of working as part of a group such as reducing the risks of the investment by a significant percentage. These advantages include an ability to:

References

  1. ↑ Metcalfe, Guy (18 July 2018). "The mathematics of market timing". PLOS ONE. 13 (7): e0200561. arXiv: 1712.05031 . Bibcode:2018PLoSO..1300561M. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0200561 . PMC   6051602 . PMID   30021021.
  2. ↑ Yale ICF Fooling Some of the People All of the Time: The Inefficient Performance and Persistence of Commodity Trading Advisors | Working Paper No. 08-21 October 2008 | Geetesh Bhardwaj AIG Financial Products; Rutgers University - Department of Economics Gary B. Gorton Yale School of Management; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) K. Geert Rouwenhorst Yale School of Management, International Center for Finance
  3. ↑ "Chasing Returns Has a High Cost for Investors | St. Louis Fed On the Economy". Archived from the original on 2014-12-27. Retrieved 2015-02-03.
  4. ↑ Merton, Robert C. (1981). "On Market Timing and Investment Performance. I. An Equilibrium Theory of Value for Market Forecasts". The Journal of Business. 54 (3): 363–406. doi:10.1086/296137. JSTOR   2352345.
  5. ↑ Henriksson, Roy D.; Merton, Robert C. (1981). "On Market Timing and Investment Performance. II. Statistical Procedures for Evaluating Forecasting Skills". The Journal of Business. 54 (4): 513–533. doi:10.1086/296144. JSTOR   2352722.
  6. ↑ staff, CNBC.com (13 October 2014). "The technical indicator that made the market tank". CNBC .
  7. ↑ Hulbert, Mark. "Good enough".
  8. ↑ Zakamulin, Valeriy (August 2014). "The real-life performance of market timing with moving average and time-series momentum rules". Journal of Asset Management. 15 (4): 261–278. doi:10.1057/jam.2014.25. S2CID   195333197.
  9. ↑ Zakamulin, Valeriy (11 December 2015). "A Comprehensive Look at the Empirical Performance of Moving Average Trading Strategies". SSRN   2677212.
  10. ↑ Pruitt, George, & Hill, John R. Building Winning Trading Systems with TradeStation(TM), Hoboken, N.J: John Wiley & Sons, Inc. ISBN   0-471-21569-4, p. 106-108.
  11. ↑ "Estimated Long-Term Mutual Fund Flows - Data via Quandl". www.quandl.com. Retrieved 2015-10-01.
  12. ↑ Kinnel, Russel (15 February 2010). "Bad Timing Eats Away at Investor Returns". Morningstar.com. Archived from the original on 26 September 2017.
  13. ↑ Worldwide Mutual Fund Assets and Flows, Fourth Quarter 2008 [ permanent dead link ]
  14. ↑ You Should Have Timed the Market Archived 2010-10-11 at the Wayback Machine on finance.yahoo.com
  15. ↑ Landy, Michael S. Rosenwald and Heather (26 December 2008). "Investors Flee Stock Funds" – via www.washingtonpost.com.
  16. ↑ "CHART: Investors Buy And Sell Stocks At Exactly The Wrong Times". Business Insider .
  17. ↑ "If You Think Worst Is Over, Take Benjamin Graham's Advice". Archived from the original on 2009-05-30. Retrieved 2017-01-17.
  18. ↑ "Since When Did It Become Buy High, Sell Low?: Chart of the Week: Market Insight: Financial Professionals: BlackRock". Archived from the original on 2014-01-14. Retrieved 2014-01-14.
  19. 1 2 3 Frazzini, Andrea; Lamont, Owen A. (May 2008). "Dumb money: Mutual fund flows and the cross-section of stock returns" (PDF). Journal of Financial Economics. 88 (2): 299–322. doi:10.1016/j.jfineco.2007.07.001. S2CID   16090053.
  20. ↑ Anderson, Tom. "Fund Investors Lag As S&P 500 Nears All-Time High". Forbes .
  21. ↑ "Fact Sheet: Morningstar Investor Return" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on 2007-01-26.
  22. ↑ "Black Swans, Portfolio Theory and Market Timing". 11 February 2008.
  23. ↑ "Mutual funds far outperform mutual fund investors". MarketWatch.
  24. ↑ "Market Timing Usually Leads to Lower Returns - BeyondProxy". Beyond Proxy. Archived from the original on 2018-02-09. Retrieved 2014-06-25.
  25. ↑ "Commodities - Issue 14 - Investment Newsletter - MASECO Private Wealth". www.masecoprivatewealth.com. Archived from the original on 2016-03-04. Retrieved 2014-06-26.
  26. ↑ "CHART: Proof That You Stink At Investing". Business Insider .
  27. ↑ Richards, Carl (27 January 2014). "Forget Market Timing, and Stick to a Balanced Fund". The New York Times.
  28. ↑ Lieber, Ron (8 October 2008). "Switching to Cash May Feel Safe, but Risks Remain". The New York Times.
  29. ↑ "Emotions And Market Timing, Emotions and Timing". www.fibtimer.com.
  30. ↑ As quoted in "The Wisdom of Great Investors: Insights from Some of History’s Greatest Investment Minds, by Davis Advisers, p. 7
  31. ↑ Jim Cramer's Getting Back to Even, pp. 63-64
  32. ↑ Baker, Scott R.; Bloom, Nicholas; Davis, Steven J. (1 November 2016). "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty*". The Quarterly Journal of Economics. 131 (4): 1593–1636. doi: 10.1093/qje/qjw024 .
  33. ↑ Malkiel, Burton G. (31 January 2004). "Can Predictable Patterns in Market Returns be Exploited Using Real Money?". The Journal of Portfolio Management. 30 (5): 131–141. doi:10.3905/jpm.2004.442638. S2CID   154981913.
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